I suppose writing a final round-up was tempting fate somewhat! YouGov have conducted a final poll for the European elections, to be published in tomorrow’s Telegraph and just released on Sky. Topline figures, with changes from the their last poll, are CON 26%(-1), LAB 16%(-1), LDEM 15%(nc), UKIP 18%(+2), GRN 10%(+1), BNP 5%(-2). The poll was conducted yesterday evening and today, so it is very up to date. Sample size was a hefty 4000.

Not a vast change in the last few days, but a marginal shift towards smaller parties. Perhaps the two most significant things there are Labour dropping to third place behind UKIP (though of course, UKIP, Labour and the Lib Dems are all still very close and it could go every way) – expectations for Labour must be getting so low that if they do manage to hold second place it would be seen as something of a victory – and secondly the BNP dropping to 5%. On a uniform swing that wouldn’t be enough for them to gain any seats, though of course, it is possible that they could do so if their vote is concentrated in the right places.

UPDATE: The second set of figures in the poll are being reported on Sky as Westminster voting intention figures, and in the Telegraph’s initial report as an all expressing an intention European intention. My understanding is that Sky are right – these are the latest Westminster voting intentions (they’d be a bit odd for European voting intentions anyway). So, with changes from the last YouGov Westminster poll, the figures are CON 37%(-2), LAB 21%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). The others are shared between 8% for UKIP, 5% for the Greens, 4% for the SNP and PC, 4% for the BNP.


91 Responses to “New YouGov eve-of-poll figures”

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  1. Anthony

    Do you really -I mean seriously -believe that with just 22% of the votes any party not just Labour could end up with over 200 seats?

  2. I think it’s unlikely, because there is a tipping point where lots of safer seats get lost.
    Of course, it depends on how the vote is distributed and how split the opposition is.
    I don’t believe they would get 22% or anything that near it in a General Election – although it’s looking like they could struggle to be much above 30.

  3. Iain Dale has said he thinks turnout could be over 50%. It would be great for democracy if his forecast proves to be anything like correct.

  4. I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Local elections getting everyone hyped up until poor Euro Election results come through.

    A general question.. do candidates usually hang around the polling stations? As in councillors, that is.

  5. Re BNP; we have always had a weirdo fringe. For example what was the percentage in the 1930s who voted for Mosley and the BUF?

    We just like to pretend that we don’t…

  6. Jack,
    Good point. Mosely only had the disadvantage of the ’31 election being called before he was ready.

  7. Pete – “interesting” is not the word I’d use to describe the BNP situation.

    The idea of their current leader being able to hide his real views “hold off from being too inflamatory” (sic) if elected as a Euro MP is zero. The chances of him achiving anything worthwhile are zero. The chance of them attracting “higher quality” candidates is very small. While they may attract a few pratts who don’t realise their true nature and a few people who have hidden their views, the BNP is run as Nick Griffins dictatorship. The inherent contradiction of trying to be a moderate Nazi means they will never be respectable.

  8. Max and Quincel – I am over the moon that you are both so excited about today’s election. There is no doubt that websites like this excellent one of Anthony’s is a marvellous non-partisan way for stimulating such excitement. The last truly exciting election for me was February 1974 when five days before polling day the Liberals had a 28% opinion poll showing, and Tory and Labour were neck and neck! In the event the Liberal vote drifted away to 19% – but it was a similar fast moving public opinion campaign, whilst most since seem roughly stuck at the levels of the first opinion polls nowadays – except this one today! Very exciting!

  9. More evidence of the BNP voting collapse- same polling company, similar sample size.

    Bye bye to the Nazis

  10. Alas I was 2 weeks too young to vote in 1997 so have never had a particually interesting election to vote in.

    My prediction:

    Conservative – 27%
    Ukip – 19%
    libdems – 16%
    labour – 16%
    Green – 9%
    Bnp – 6%

  11. @ Joshua – re: ripping doen BNP posters.

    Personally I think you are way out of line. The BNP may be racist, statist scum to most people but in a democracy they have a right to put themselves before the People. What you are doing is little better than Brown Shirted mob action.

  12. I like the way when someone says “everyone I have met is voting BNP” or “everyone I have met is voting tory”. Given how unlikely that is. How intimidating do you have to be to ensure everyone you meet voted for who you claim to vote for. Seeing what sort of people are in the BNP that does not surprise me they are that intimidating.

    The BNP are not a weirdo fringe they are evil neo nazis. To call them a weirdo fringe does not reflect how brutal and cruel they would be.

  13. @ Cliff – re: replying to me

    I’m sorry but a poor asian guy had posters slapped outside his shop without him knowing and he didnt even fully understand what they meant. This was also, coincidentally, the same time as when his shop was broken into. I explained what they were and we asked if he wanted us to take them down and he agreed and we did. If thats not doing a service for the people of my town then I dont know what is.

    We need to stop the racists and the fascist and I don’t care what you think.

  14. Joshua,

    Councillors should not “hang around” polling stations. However, it is perfectly legitimate, indeed proper, that candidates should visit each polling station in the ward / constituency they are expecting to represent. They should do so, not to drum up support, but to thank all the staff at the polling station who have a long and arduous day.

    What you may however be referring to are the party “tellers” who collect polling numbers as voters exit the polling station. There are rules governing the behaviour of tellers, including that they should not enter the polling station itself, and should not ask people about tehir voting intention, but they are an important part of our democracy – sadly undermined by the promotion of postal / proxy voting on demand on the mistaken assumption that making something easier makes peole “more inolved”.

    In principle, all parties putting up a candidate ought to have a teller present at the polling station. If they do not, it suggests that they are not serious about winning the seat in question. That is because the reason for telling is to measure how much of your pledged support has already voted, and identifying those who need to be encouraged to get out and vote. Obviously if a party has not canvassed, or has little expectation of winning enough support to have a chance of victory, then telling is a labour-intensive process for little benefit.

    Finally, while all of the above holds true for councils and Westminster, where elections are fought on a first past the post in a relatively small defined area, it is less practical in terms of the Euro-Elections where seats are allocated on a party list basis across a wide region. You certainly would not expect any candidate in Scotland or the South East to even attempt visiting every polling station in their region.

  15. @ Joshua

    Quite right. There needs to be some publicity about what telling is, why parties do it and its importance to the electoral process in helping drive up turnout.

  16. I think it is right to assume that there will be quite a few (self-definining) working-class Labour voters around who want to protest, and that that is likely to mean either British Nazi Party or Greens.

    I guess which one will at least partly depend on the local situation – whether the BNP or tghe Greens are present on the ground. And for that reason I am not convined that it is all BNP in Yorkshire, as the Greens are quite organised there and have quite a few councillors (esp. in West Yorkshire). The NW and the W Midlands are different as in both regions the Greens are very weak in most places.

  17. Edward Schaffer,

    How will the Democratic Unionist manage to get 2 seats with one candidate???

  18. @Anthony

    As at 11:30, Sky and The Telegraph still disagree about which poll question resulted in the 37/21/19 findings.

    Since the Telegraph have made no change to their article, can you confirm that your statement is sourced from YouGov?

  19. From Peter Kellner, so copper-bottomed certain.

  20. If the Tories are polling at 37% for Westminster although this is still perfectly good enough to secure a majority given Labour’s rating I imagine it will worry Cameron on a political basis. Whoever wins will need to take some very tough decisions, and will really want a big mandate. No one ever gets 50%+ these days, but in 97 there was a sense of a big endorsement for Blair, and I’m sure Cameron wants the same. Anything under 40% I think would disappoint him and create an avenue to question the political legitimacy of controversial policies, especially from a party so strongly set against electoral reform.
    These EU and local polls won’t give any real clue as to the GE result, but the Westminster polls are interesting.

  21. “but in 97 there was a sense of a big endorsement for Blair,”

    really? on a (genuinely) collapsed turnout… it works out at 26% of the electorate… the lefty media might have portrayed it as such, but the numbers speak for themselves.

    I agree though, that Cameron is hardly being resoundingly endorsed; more of a begrudging “anything but labour” vote.

    ————————————————————————–

    “JimPage

    More evidence of the B-NP voting collapse- same polling company, similar sample size.

    Bye bye to the Na-zis”

    Are you aware of how ridiculous you sound?

    You, “DirtyEuro”, “Tom”, and “Joshua” really ought to fit in a bit of reading up on what fasc-ism (Gentile; North Korean “Ju-Che”; bin-Laden; Mugabe; Stalin; Mao; Burma etc..) and Na-zism is between lectures, lest you inadvertently turn out to be practising and preaching it in disguise.

    Whatever disingenuous and extremist histrionics you scrawl on here, there is every likelihood that “the party that dare speak it’s name” will get between 3 and 5 MEPs, and you are going to have to grow up and deal with it, because quite clearly, whatever you spout isn’t working – if it was, they wouldn’t even be on the radar. You are preaching to the converted here (or to yourselves); it’s easy to put a post online, but why don’t you put your knuckles on a few door knockers instead and ask real human people why they are voting for them; and rejecting what you would like them to vote for?

  22. Joshua,

    Whether or not you think you were doing people a “service” or not is irrelevant. Ripping down posters of a political party during an election campaign is illegal.

  23. @Promsan – I appreciate your point on the numbers in 97, but that’s only why I used the words ‘sense of a big endorsement…’. From memory they got 44% of the votes cast, but I could be wrong. I was making a point more about the politics of it really, and how a sub 40% score might affect a Cameron government in the years ahead.

    I must however fully endorse your comments re the BNP. They are achieving a profile, and a significant minority feel able to support them. Calling these people names is counterproductive – it makes the BNP’s point for them that the political establishment has left them behind, whether or not this reflects the facts. Deal with them by proving them wrong – establish clear policies to meet the difficulties in society they (sometimes quite correctly) diagnose, don’t allow them the space to fill policy voids with extremist based solutions, and permit them to take part in democracy but in a decent and dignified way mash them completely.

  24. Neil,

    From what Joshua said, it would appear that these were stickers being put on private property without the property-owner’s consent. Removing them was perfectly legitimate while posting them in such a manner is illegal. Just as any other form of graffiti constitutes criminal damage, and it is perfectly legal for a property owner to remove it.

    Affixing politcal posters to street furniture is a grey area, and removing those may be illegal. Only the local authority (as the owner of said property) could do so.

    If you believe that what Joshua was doing was wrong in the circumstances, then you highlight the ridiculous situation we have in this country where if a shop-keeper manhandles a shoplifter he gets charged with assault while the villain gets away scot-free.

  25. Conservative 24% 23
    UKIP 19% 14
    Labour 14% 10!!!
    Liberal 13% 10
    Green 10% 6
    BNP 8% 3

    BNP won’t collapse, I am sure they consistently underpoll.

    I think it is a shame how British society treats BNP members. The ones who are criminal let them be shamed for their criminal behaviour, but the same for Tories, Labour, far left, etc. Clearly the whole establishment + security services (which you know must have many informants in the party) do what they can to suppress its support. Nonetheless, it progresses in forgotten working class Britain.

    And no, most of the latter won’t be pushed to vote for libertarians who want the UK to virtually join the US and further kill itself with “free trade” (UKIP policies) just because they don’t like the EU. There is some class consciousness remaining.

  26. Anthony,
    Do you know if anywhere is counting tonight and if the results will be added to the BBC results page online later tonight/early hours tomorrow?
    Tonight’s Channel 4 news made it sound as if everywhere is counting tomorrow – what is the position please?

  27. Note the SNP figures from the Scottish breakdown – big sample more important than normal.

    Lead of 8 per cent at Westminster and 9 pe rcent in the Euros – makes you feel that the ice is begining to
    globally melt north of the Tweed.

    A watershed General Election may be on the way.

  28. I have now made my final predictions for each region (except NI). Please go and have a look and tell me where I went wrong. I think everyone should make their own predictions so we can see on Monday morning who was most accurate – just a little bit of fun. You have to do it before the locals are announced or else you have an unfair advantage.

    My totals were:

    Conservatives – 26 seats (maybe 25)
    Labour – 15 seats
    UKIP – 11 seats (maybe up to 13)
    Libdems – 11 seats (maybe 10)
    Greens – 2 seats
    SNP – 2 seats
    BNP – 1 seat
    Plaid Cymru – 1 seat

    There are a couple of regions where things seem very close, hence the “maybe” figures in brackets.

    I think Labour will come 2nd in terms of seats, this does NOT necessarily mean they will come second in terms of votes cast. I just think their vote spread will be more efficient – SW England will be the only region where Labour miss out on a seat, while UKIP will miss out in Scotland; Wales and NE England.

    The Greens will hold their 2 seats, but I can’t see them gaining. The BNP will gain one in the North West, but will miss out in Yorkshire and Humberside.

  29. Alec

    Thanks. At least I’m not wittering to myself like the BNP-bashers.

    Neil makes a valid point… if you can’t beat the B-NP without resorting to criminality, then you are hardly going to sound credible as “anti-Fascists” or defenders of freedom and intellectual inquiry.
    Fas-cism, as practised in many states (as diverse as Belorussia, Sudan, and Turkmenistan) is honestly a world away from what the B-NP actually represent; and is far closer to the kind of institutionalised objurgation and talibanisation of political expression people like you and cohorts of baby boomers in the media appear to be attempting with the monotonous splenetic parrotings issued like a jumping record.

    The people who vote for them would probably not wish to be associated with you anyway for all manner of cultural and economic disenfranchisment reasons, so they’re hardly going to get into a moral panic over anything that comes out of the likes of the various labour-party sponsored organisations who frequently indulge in ritualised bouts of 2-minutes of hate – I know, I’ve grown up amongst them, and been lucky enough to experience other highly contrasting cultural worlds.

    The truth is that I think a lot people vote B-NP because of, rather than in spite of the “JimPage”s and “Joshua”s of this world – just to stick two fingers up at them… I think rather like America needed to create bogeymen like North Korea to justify their industrial-military complex; the lefties actually *need* the B-NP to deflect attention from their own inadequacies… as they appear to *need* the invention of “Al Qaeda” to justify the genuinely fascist removal of various civil liberties.
    Who was it who forbade you from peaceful protest outside parliament? not the B-NP… who wants a bill of rights with a US-style first amendment? not newLabour.

    Who’s the “fascist” now?

    —-
    Thomas, the B-NP are a cultural phenomenon; not a political one, they are intrinsically wrapped up in the betrayal of the indigenous working classes by Labour.
    —-

    Alec, I’m totally with you on the Cameron point… he really hasn’t won anything if he can’t match Blair’s score in ’97.

    …I hope and pray we’re in for more than one watershed.
    I’m hoping for a shock result in *all* the forthcoming elections.

  30. I agree with those who are against the visceral BNP-bashers. There is a streak of independence in many English people that would go something like this “All the parties who have let me down are against this party, and tell me not to vote for them. Therefore I will”

    Also, by calling them Nazis (which they aren’t), you are helping to create a Nazi party, because those who do happen to have Nazi-like opinions (and there are a few) will be attracted to them. Most of these people would probably not otherwise be involved in politics.

    Oh, and Tom, I didn’t misspell ‘inflammatory’.

  31. “Global environmental crisis and global flu; these are the problems that are facing our country”
    Jim Knight – Schools minister on BBC 24 a couple of minutes ago.

    LMAO. Who is he kidding?

  32. Promscan – I’m sure we can all deal with the BNP getting 1 seat, 3 seats or 12 seats.

    It’s not name calling to refer to the BNP as Nazi’s, it’s about political classification.

    From the BNP website, Nick Griffin’s article “The BNP:Anti-asylum protest, racist sect or power-winning movement ?” “An official statement by Party Chairman Nick Griffin.”

    “miscegenation, [sex between people of different races] which we (the BNP) recognise as a form of genocide. This last assessment is shared by perhaps 10,000 people in the entire country, and probably would be regarded as an overstatement even by some – though, mericfully, not many of our own activists”

    “there can be little doubt that virtually every one of our voters and a majority of our activists are compromised by some aspect of ‘multi-culti’ experiment, whether it be by supporting teams which include non-whites, buying ethnic takeaways or getting on well with a few individual members of ethnic minorities”

    Do you agree with Mr Griffin I wonder ?

    Nick Griffin again, same article – “It is a temptation to think, .. we can in turn move to a more ‘principled’ ‘hardline’ position and still take a significant number of voters with us. Tempting but politically suicidal.”

    Does that sound like a party that fearless says what it means ?

    The BNP line that when people quote what the BNP say it is a smear, a security services plant, funded by searchlight or “facistic” etc. is rather pathetic.

  33. Tom, it’s an inaccurate political classification… and transparant logical fallacy of “argumentum ad nazium”.
    Fascism was defined by Giovanni Gentile – read up.

    Actually Tom, my wife is of a different ethnicity to me (and my children are “miscegenated”), so don’t you dare start trying the same mock-liberal ad hominem abuse that genuine fascists like you seem to enjoy.

    I’m educated enough to know that “race” does not exist; and by implication, neither does racism. Ethnicity is what is meant; and ethnocentrism is what is going on.

    Do I agree with Mr Griffin…
    Well even the way you raise that question is McCarthyite… Do you really mean “Am I an evil Nazi?”
    However, your self-evident inarticulacy and incipience is enough for me disregard that, and report that actually, I am intellectually curious enough to challenge all my opinions (as an engineer and an linguist/area studies grad), and open enough to read all manifestos without prejudice – unlike genuine bigots like you (bigotry meaning the stubborn refusal to engage with new information, simply because of the source), who will only shop for ideas at same “Fash food” joint.

    There is content in more than one manifesto that I can go along with, including that of the B-NP; though I do recognise that the way they express ideas should be refined – but I am able to discern the difference between the content of a message from the packaging.

    There is no party that sufficiently represents my views, but I’ve no problem with anyone voting B-NP, because I know that long-term it will result is a pile of smouldering resentments to be “had out” in public, and for solutions to be found.
    To the point you clumsily try to raise: yes, I think we need a complete moratorium on immigration; I think we need “a first amendment”; I see “mulitculturalism” or “immigrationism” and “globalisation” (putting profit before people and their identity) as a problem for human societies all over the planet: be they Tibetans and West Papuans or native Australians or Amazonians being ethnically cleansed in their homeland; or the carve up of Africa pitching tribe against tribe… it is a fact of human nature, and the British are as human as any of those groups… and has been through history:

    “Another cause of revolution is difference of races which do not at once acquire a common spirit; for a state is not the growth of a day, any more than it grows out of a multitude brought together by accident. Hence the reception of strangers in colonies, either at the time of their foundation or afterwards, has generally produced revolution; for example, the Achaeans who joined the Troezenians in the foundation of Sybaris, becoming later the more numerous, expelled them; hence the curse fell upon Sybaris. At Thurii the Sybarites quarrelled with their fellow-colonists; thinking that the land belonged to them, they wanted too much of it and were driven out.”

    Aristotle, “Politics”, Part III, Book V (4th century BC)

    No go back the university library and get a book on critical thinking and logical fallacy before trying it on again.

  34. Promsan – That’s what he said, it was on the BNP website. A simple yes or no would do.

    The BNP policy is not one of a moratorium on immigration. Even you should know that.

    Your proving the point really, like Nick Griffin, your true views can’t be hidden.

  35. Like a true amateur fascist and demagogue, you are trying to dictate the answer to your own question… Stalin would be proud.

    It is another logical fallacy: the false dilemma.
    There is not “one question” there to agree with, but three statements:

    1. There is a statement about “miscegenation” – I am a serial miscegenator (!).
    2. There is a statement about a survey I’ve never heard of.
    3. There is a statement about what the majority of BNP voters and activists think – I’ve never knowingly met any.

    With that in mind, to bumblingly grunt a transparently lame loaded question out that doesn’t display any evidence that you yourself have even read the quotes you’ve pasted, of “do you agree with Mr Griffen”, as if you are some kind of “Columbo”, and expect an answer, is a bit thick, don’t you think? (I mean literally, “Don’t you think?!”)
    I’ve already answered your question with my answer, not your answer. The reason I did that, is because your question is flawed.

    I’ve just googled that article – can’t find it.
    “www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&client=opera&rls=en&hs=YRE&q=%22The+BNP%3AAnti-asylum+protest%2C+racist+sect+or+power-winning+movement%3F%22&btnG=Search&meta=”
    Do you honestly expect anyone to respond to something you can’t cite?!

    I don’t mind that B-NP don’t explicitly say they want a “moratorium on immigration”; what they do say is, and (unlike you, I can cite it) I quote:
    “we call for an immediate halt to all further immigration, the immediate deportation of criminal and illegal immigrants, and the introduction of a system of voluntary resettlement whereby those immigrants who are legally here will be afforded the opportunity to return to their lands of ethnic origin assisted by a generous financial incentives both for individuals and for the countries in question.”
    [source: “http://bnp.org.uk/policies/immigration/”, last accessed 2009-06-06]

    The first part of this amounts to the same thing; the second part is fine by me; the third part I don’t object to either, because there is no compulsion; hence it is not fascist.
    If you go around raking up every single error of judgment or ill-conceived inarticulate utterance that every person ever does, you will find the whole world wanting – especially yourself. It is a man’s perogative to change his mind – why don’t you change yours for one that works?

    It is only you who are proving that your true colours can’t be hidden – you want us all to think like you do, or face various punishments for heresy against your cult.

  36. “last accessed 2009-06-05]”

    “Behold the evil liar!” etc…

    yawn.

  37. Tom,

    Plato’s “Early Socratic Dialogues” is a good book. The penguin classics version is Trevor Saunders’ translation (that’s the one I have) and it has a very good explanation of logical fallacy. I highly recommend it.

  38. Promsan – So where is the land of ethnic origin to which your children wil be sent – with generous assistance from the taxpayer ?

    Your open minded enough to view Giovanni Gentile as the last word on the definition of facism, when I never called the BNP fascists anyway.

    Your so keyed up on rigerous critical thinking you accept the BNP manifesto as the last word on their policies and views.

    I wonder why they took this and other articles off their website ?

    You don’t even know whether I suport the BNP or not, you’ve just made an assumption.

  39. …and of course, it does depend on what you mean by “immigration” …there are various kinds; but I’m assuming that we are talking about permanent settlement and citizenship; and work visas. I don’t have a problem with indefinite leave to remain for foreign spouses, but I would not support spouses getting British citizenship, for the obvious reason that you want to ensure that there is never even the possibility of marriages of convenience taking place, not just for economic reasons, but also for criminal/human trafficking reasons: it’s a moral position.
    Likewise with asylum seekers, it is better for them to be dealt with nearer their place of origin; e.g.: funding the set up of mass-support for South Africa to support Zimbabweans, and facilitating their training so they can re-take control of their country from a truly fascist regime.

    …I can get very detailed about it and cite clear moral arguments to support each view … but this is not the place for this kind of exposition; so stop trying to hijack it.

  40. “Tom

    Promsan – So where is the land of ethnic origin to which your children wil be sent – with generous assistance from the taxpayer ?”

    You really are proving me right aren’t you… read the quote, it says “no compulsion”… I’m dyslexic, what’s your excuse?

    “Your open minded enough to view Giovanni Gentile as the last word on the definition of facism, when I never called the B-NP fascists anyway.”
    Gentile’s the first word; why would anyone take third-hand info from splenetic opponents seriously?
    (true… a consolation goal for you to reminisce upon).

    “Your so keyed up on rigerous critical thinking you accept the B-NP manifesto as the last word on their policies and views.”
    Occam’s Razor old bean. You can’t have it both ways – either they’re scar-faced cat-stroking Dr Evils or knuckle-dragging thugs who use drugged up donkeys to type their manifestos.
    (I’m also keyed up on spelling most of the time…)

    “I wonder why they took this and other articles off their website ?”
    Perhaps they just changed their mind, it does happen – why don’t you try it?

    “You don’t even know whether I suport the B-NP or not, you’ve just made an assumption.”
    No I didn’t. There you go again… not reading things properly… jumping to conclusions that suit your prejudices.

    …such is the way of the true believer who twists facts to suit arguments rather than arguments to suit facts.

    They have dual citizenship, they can choose; without subsidy.

  41. Enough – go and argue elsewhere.

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