New YouGov eve-of-poll figures
I suppose writing a final round-up was tempting fate somewhat! YouGov have conducted a final poll for the European elections, to be published in tomorrow’s Telegraph and just released on Sky. Topline figures, with changes from the their last poll, are CON 26%(-1), LAB 16%(-1), LDEM 15%(nc), UKIP 18%(+2), GRN 10%(+1), BNP 5%(-2). The poll was conducted yesterday evening and today, so it is very up to date. Sample size was a hefty 4000.
Not a vast change in the last few days, but a marginal shift towards smaller parties. Perhaps the two most significant things there are Labour dropping to third place behind UKIP (though of course, UKIP, Labour and the Lib Dems are all still very close and it could go every way) – expectations for Labour must be getting so low that if they do manage to hold second place it would be seen as something of a victory – and secondly the BNP dropping to 5%. On a uniform swing that wouldn’t be enough for them to gain any seats, though of course, it is possible that they could do so if their vote is concentrated in the right places.
UPDATE: The second set of figures in the poll are being reported on Sky as Westminster voting intention figures, and in the Telegraph’s initial report as an all expressing an intention European intention. My understanding is that Sky are right – these are the latest Westminster voting intentions (they’d be a bit odd for European voting intentions anyway). So, with changes from the last YouGov Westminster poll, the figures are CON 37%(-2), LAB 21%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). The others are shared between 8% for UKIP, 5% for the Greens, 4% for the SNP and PC, 4% for the BNP.
I’m not suprised that UKIP are second in this poll, i think could will get more than the polls are showing, maybe 20-22%. I think this comfirms a battle for second place between Labour, UKIP, Lib Dems, and going by the other polls, the Greens.
Labour have dropped below YouGov? I had no idea they were fielding candidates
Ah, the perils of trying to get a post up very quickly
The BNP will poll at least 10% iam in the south east and everyone i know is voting for them
I don’t believe the BNP figure is as low as 5%. It just doesn’t feel right when compared with the word on the street. I wouldn’t be surprised if it approached 10% in reality. But pollsters can only rely on the replies they get.
Can any pollster devise a legitimate way of adjusting for the “shame factor” re the BNP?
My admittedly limited canvassing experience in one constituency in the south-east suggests that the analysis that UKIP will be this high is just wrong. I just haven’t seen that level of Tories switching to UKIP. Some, a notable amount, but just not that much. Are people using the polls to beat up the main parties? I’d be amazed if the Tories were as low as this based on my canvass returns (limited though they are).
Craig, you say that, but I’ve been actively campaigning in the grassroots from Sussex to Kent and I have not found one BNP voter, that is in capacity with anti-fascist campaigning and also Green Party campaigning in both traditional Tory areas, traditional Labour areas, and the Lib Dem controlled wards.
Not one.
I think the BNP will perform worst in the South East than anywhere else. On the right, the South East is UKIP country, and on the left, it is the Greens.
I would not be surprised to see UKIP come first in the South East and the Greens come third. Perhaps the only region where I think this is at all possible given the breakdown of the polls that I have seen.
Craig – shame we can’t have a bet on that – perhaps you ought to get out and meet more people. Let me guess you are voting BNP ? and everyone you meet is too polite to argue with you.
Craig, I doubt it will be 10%, as at that rate the BNP would poll about 12 to 14% nationally, and that is unthinkable in my opinion, despite the shyness of BNP respondents to pollsters. However, as per my question on Anthony’s previous summary, I think the BNP might sneak a seat in SE region if they poll more than half (say 7.6%) of either the Green or Labour vote of circa 15%? Does my maths make sense?
No massive changes from what I can tell. Lab, Lib, and UKIP are in a dead heat for second to fourth still, etc. I’d chalk this up to statistical noise, frankly: it’s not a big swing and it’s in line with three of the four recent polls (ignoring the one the Greens commissioned; I’m willing to bet that they prompted for the Greens as well as the others, and -possibly- threw in a priming question or two).
Have just seen some canvassing results taken since 6.ooPM Labours vote has all but disapeared, GREENS
UKIP AND LIBERAL DEMOCRATS even BNP have increased, the news of Labour Ministers resigning is affecting the way people are thinking of voting has changed dramaticaly,
Would not like to be a Labour candidate, their share of the votes could drop to 11%, the same area produced 17% last night , Has anyone any idea why this is happening?
This yougov poll
seems to be correct..
I’d put money on the south east going Tory, UKIP, Lib Dem, Green, Labour, BNP in that order…
Jon Craig has just said on Sky News that the Westminster voting intentions from this poll are Con 37%, Lab 21%. Looking at the Telegraph website, I wonder whether he is mixing it up with the “not certain to vote” figures?
Bill, fascinating, this is exactly what was happening during the day at work as I chatted to colleagues – people are shifting like mad, and by the time I went home our last staunchest of staunch Labour voter had switched to Green! (although there are no BNP voters at my place of work – well at least nobody owns up to it! – unlike the white van men and their families and hangers-on who live in my street!)
This poll is pretty close to what I was predicting in the previous thread earlier today, although the BNP vote is lower than I think it will actually be. Apart from the BNP share, all the others are within 1% of what I thought might happen. It’s a shame we have to wait a few days for the results, which could result in the prime minister stepping down, especially if Labour do come fourth.
Richard B – no, my understanding is John Craig is right and the Telegraph are wrong. Those are Westminster figures.
If the BNP win in a seat in the South East (their weakest region given they only have one councilor here- Swanley), their vote share nationally would be way off the pollsters.
BNP cannot win in the South East. No way will they get the 9% needed. No way.
You know, a thought just hit me: How many people are saying they’ll vote Labour more out of habit than preference? As in, how many people who usually vote Labour keep saying that as a matter of not publicly admitting a defection but will vote to zap Brown tomorrow?
Of course, the reverse is true…is there a chance that there’s a “shy Labourite” factor at play in here given all the scandals (much as there was a shy Tory factor in the 90s) that is propping up Green (and other) support?
And finally, Domesday raised a good point: Though I still don’t quite see Labour falling to 4th nationally, regionally the situation is likely to be a bit different. I think the seat totals might be out of order with the national vote totals (as NE only has three seats, etc.), and while Labour holds onto third vote-wise they might slip into 4th seat-wise.
Anthony a question please. Would you hazard a guess from previous similar events ( a percentage impact?) of the Blears resignation on the final Labour share of the European vote, compared with the pre-Blears resignation final poll figures we have? Or is it utterly unquantifiable compared to previous events?
Anthony Wells:
Given your connections to Yougov can you please clarify what figures are what in this latest Yougov poll as the Telegraph and Sky are making a real dog’s breakfast of reporting it.
Can you tell us:
Whether there are headline Westminster figures provided and if so what are they?
What the ‘certain to vote’ figures for the Euro Poll is?
What the overall ‘non certain to vote’ figures for the Euro Poll are?
You will also note that the Telegraph in their article has made a serious error in claiming that the Conservatives polled 37% in the 2004 Euro Election (it was 26.7%.).
Both Sky and the Telegraph are trying to talk up a big swing to ‘others’ whereas from what I can see it is a mere +2%. Whats being reported is nonsense!
Whether or not UKIP get 7% in the General Election as YouGov poll suggests surely depends on whether we get that general election before the Irish re-referendum or afterwards.
An early GE means every UKIPper should vote Tory to kill the EU constitution as that would be the result; a late General Election means UKIPpers have nothing to lose so 7% might be accurate.
Question is whether we have polls that assess UKIP vote both prior to ratification by Ireland and then after the EU constitution becomes law around Europe…
Luke,
I don’t know if they need 9%. Correct me if I’m mixing up the seat allocation methodology, but given that the region has 10 seats, aren’t we likely to see a lot of leftover remainders (i.e. a party with 14% would get one seat and have 4% left) that could let them in on more like 6-7%? I’m not disputing their positioning; I just think your bar might be a bit high.
Anthony,
Did John Craig on Sky just make a mistake by saying that the general election voting intention was con37 lab 21 ? isn’t he getting confused with uncertainty to vote ?
@Bill Furness
My idea is that it is because the cabinet have come out today in support of Brown. If they will not get rid of him then the public will along with more than half of Labour MPs, including more than half of the cabinet.
I am still hopeful that the Lib Dems will come in second. Although I admit this poll has reduced my confidence somewhat. According to the polls UKip are clearly favourite to come second.
One grounds for my optimism is that the Euro Election is taking place at the same time as the English County Elections where the Lib Dems have relatively high support. This will raise the turnout level for the Lib Dems (and also for the Cons).
I stick to the same prediction I made a few days ago:
Cons 27%
Lib Dems 17%
UKip 16%
Lab 15%
Another reason for thinking the Lib Dems will reach 17% is that they are a natural option for would have been Labour voters whose numbers are swelling by the hour at present.
If Labour do come fourth with 15%, how many people think that Brown will be able to survive such a result?
the telegraph says:
If the responses of people who are not certain to vote are included in the results, the Tory vote share jumps to 37 per cent, with Labour in second place on 21 per cent and the Lib Dems in third on 19 per cent. Ukip support drops to just 8 per cent, reflecting the party’s lack of “casual” sympathisers.
Tom
I’m getting very confused indeed. Are you talking Westminster intentions or Euro-poll intentions viz the Telegraph?
OK The EU Vote when you crunch the numbers – according to the above poll
Prediction
Conservative 22
UKIP 13
Labour 13
Lib Democrat 12
Green 6
Scot Nat 2
DU 2
PC 1
SF 1
Just to make it absolutely clear, the figures the Telegraph refer to in their original report, 37-21-19, are Westminster voting intention figures. They are NOT “all expressing an opinion Euro figures”.
Living here in the West Midlands and talking to many people in the area the latest YouGov Euro poll seems to reflect the opinions expresed, although I have struggled to find a single potential Labour voter, they all seem to be moving to the Green Party, so 10% maybe an under estimate. Inrteresting times! If Labour do end up under 15%, Brown will do very well to survive the fallout.
Latest canvassing returns.
FROM 6 TO 9.00 TONIGHT
Con 27%
ukip 20%
libdem 19%
labour 12%
green 10%
bnp2%
The results will be different due to EU and County.
as ukip are not in the County,
Thank you Anthony. I am no longer confused! Well, not for a little while longer anyway I hope!!!!
Hazel Blears resignation – how much impact do you predict on tomorrow’s Labour share compared to this latest poll? (Are there past precedents to compare it with?)
This is the most interesting election I can remember, and I go back a long way. Where is Mike (The Oracle) Richardson when you need him?
The BNP situation is one of the interesting factors. I predicted some time ago that they would get at least one seat, and possibly two. Though hardly anyone agreed at the time, this is now looking like an underestimate if anything. If they do have some success, and their current leaders hold off from being too inflammatory when the inevitable interviews happen, they might start to attract higher-quality candidates in the future, which in turn might make them even more acceptable.
The other parties fighting for 2nd/3rd/4th/5th is also very interesting. Is this a one-off situation for these European elections (most likely I think), or the start of a new stage of British politics (possible). We have already moved from an almost pure two-party system in the 50s and 60s to a two-and-a-half party system now. The next couple of Westminster parliaments could have very clear Tory majorites, with the main opposition divided between Labour and Liberal who would not always co-operate. There will also be significant representation of ‘Others’, led by the Scots and Welsh Nationalists plus the Irish, and a smattering of Independents, Greens and even BNP.
Interesting times indeed!
Tony – specifically, none. A party being seen as divided however would be negative electorally, though Labour may well have been being viewed that way anyway.
I am finally going to admit it… I am scared of the BNP presence. All over my town of 9000 people there are BNP stickers on every letterbox, outside corner shops and lamposts. We have tried our best to rip them all down but it seems impossible. Other than Labour they are the only political presence here
You’re right about the BNP. That 5% could be highly concentrated. I still expect then to win a seat in Yorkshire, the Labour vote in Yorkshire is more likely to switch to BNP than to the Greens. You only have to look at the council elections especially in wards in certain areas of W Yorks. There has been a definite swing from Labour to BNP.
Don’t worry Joshua. This is not the Weimar Republic. Despite the current Westminster shambles, the British majority actually want a functioning democracy, not a Fuehrer character. Unpleasant though it may be in some localities, and undoubtedly though they will do well as a protest tomorrow, such a party will never get a permanent grip in England. Even a 7-10% showing tomorrow would not amount to a parallel to the “Signal Lippe” election which launched the NSDAP to big time status. Remember the NF in France, how when opposed in the second round by Chirac alone it proved that they were stuck in the mid teens as everyone ganged up against them. It would be interesting to have a poll to discover how many electors would never ever vote BNP – I suspect it would be over 75%.
Fortunately Joshua the proliferation of BNP stickers in your town will probably not transfer into votes, let’s hope not anyway.
Do we know what the expected turnout is? Less than 25% will probably be to the advantage of parties of the right UKIP/BNP, so hopefully Labour voters will take the opportunity to switch to Green/No2EU, rather than sitting on their hands.
I honestly think that Labour may finish fifth. I also think that the general election may be sooner, rather than later. Why? A Labour MP is trying to gather support for a letter calling on Gordon Brown to resign as PM and party leader. If I were Gordon Brown, I’d say to my MPs, “Stop it! Or I will call an election.” But I don’t think the backbench Labour MPs will stop their agitation. Brown will then either have to press the nuclear button or climb down. I don’t think he’ll be able to climb down.
Tony,
Since tables are sometimes there and sometimes not (and sometimes take two weeks to come out), is there any way you could put polling tables in one centralized place (like a link on the list of polls when a poll’s tables appear)?
Anthony, how come your projected Tory majority has dropped to 60 despite the most recent poll giving them a 18% lead while the previous one gave them an 8% lead? Have the numbers reached a tipping point when parties other than Tory and Labour eat into the leading party’s majority despite the widening Con-Lab gap?
Sorry, that should be a 16% lead.
I’m so looking forward to tomorrow.
The first time I’m old enough to vote.
After months of indecision, I have decided on a party to vote for, and am quite excited.
I think the results will be
Conservative- 27%
Ukip- 19%
Labour- 18%
Lib Dem-16%
Green-10%
BNP-7%
I’m not worried about BNP winning a Euro seat. It will drive home to the general public the importance of getting out to vote for the main parties in the future.
This GE poll showing Labour on 21% and Lib Dems on 19% confirms the small shift from Labour to Lib Dems I have been expecting. Indeed, the average recent polling is Lab 21% and Lib Dems 19%
It encourages my belief that the Lib Dems will pick up votes in the Euro election from would have been Labour voters.
correction: the average is of course Lab 22% and Lib Dems 19%
I have to agree with those who think the BNP will do better than predicted. In my neighbourhood, I’ve seen BNP posters in the windows of quite a few houses – something that I’ve never seen around here before, ever. It’s not scientific I know, but still.
Political events are moving so fast – Blears, the backbench plotters, the Brown-under-pressure headlines – this poll already feels like this poll is out of date.
“Political events are moving so fast – Blears, the backbench plotters, the Brown-under-pressure headlines – this poll already feels like this poll is out of date.”
I agree, isn’t it great? Politics hasn’t been this exciting since I was a few months old (and Thatcher lost power).
Guess what: the Weighted Moving Average is 37:22:19 and in fact YouGov is spot on with both the CLead (16 due to rounding) and the L:LD gap (3 but actually equal to the all-time low of 2.8)
And this is before Hazel rocked the boat (wearing, according to the Standard, a badge that said “rock the boat”).
I think it’s pretty clear that UKIP and the Greens are going to do well in the Euro elections.
The Lib Dems must be very disappointed not to be picking up more protest votes, and to be losing support in other polls.
The two main parties, however, will get a hammering in the Euro election. The challenge really for the Tories is to get a good result in the CC elections whilst all this is happening.
Anthony
Do you really -I mean seriously -believe that with just 22% of the votes any party not just Labour could end up with over 200 seats?
I think it’s unlikely, because there is a tipping point where lots of safer seats get lost.
Of course, it depends on how the vote is distributed and how split the opposition is.
I don’t believe they would get 22% or anything that near it in a General Election – although it’s looking like they could struggle to be much above 30.
Iain Dale has said he thinks turnout could be over 50%. It would be great for democracy if his forecast proves to be anything like correct.
I think the Lib Dems will do well in the Local elections getting everyone hyped up until poor Euro Election results come through.
A general question.. do candidates usually hang around the polling stations? As in councillors, that is.
Re BNP; we have always had a weirdo fringe. For example what was the percentage in the 1930s who voted for Mosley and the BUF?
We just like to pretend that we don’t…
Jack,
Good point. Mosely only had the disadvantage of the ‘31 election being called before he was ready.
Pete – “interesting” is not the word I’d use to describe the BNP situation.
The idea of their current leader being able to hide his real views “hold off from being too inflamatory” (sic) if elected as a Euro MP is zero. The chances of him achiving anything worthwhile are zero. The chance of them attracting “higher quality” candidates is very small. While they may attract a few pratts who don’t realise their true nature and a few people who have hidden their views, the BNP is run as Nick Griffins dictatorship. The inherent contradiction of trying to be a moderate Nazi means they will never be respectable.
Max and Quincel – I am over the moon that you are both so excited about today’s election. There is no doubt that websites like this excellent one of Anthony’s is a marvellous non-partisan way for stimulating such excitement. The last truly exciting election for me was February 1974 when five days before polling day the Liberals had a 28% opinion poll showing, and Tory and Labour were neck and neck! In the event the Liberal vote drifted away to 19% – but it was a similar fast moving public opinion campaign, whilst most since seem roughly stuck at the levels of the first opinion polls nowadays – except this one today! Very exciting!
More evidence of the BNP voting collapse- same polling company, similar sample size.
Bye bye to the Nazis
Alas I was 2 weeks too young to vote in 1997 so have never had a particually interesting election to vote in.
My prediction:
Conservative – 27%
Ukip – 19%
libdems – 16%
labour – 16%
Green – 9%
Bnp – 6%
@ Joshua – re: ripping doen BNP posters.
Personally I think you are way out of line. The BNP may be racist, statist scum to most people but in a democracy they have a right to put themselves before the People. What you are doing is little better than Brown Shirted mob action.
I like the way when someone says “everyone I have met is voting BNP” or “everyone I have met is voting tory”. Given how unlikely that is. How intimidating do you have to be to ensure everyone you meet voted for who you claim to vote for. Seeing what sort of people are in the BNP that does not surprise me they are that intimidating.
The BNP are not a weirdo fringe they are evil neo nazis. To call them a weirdo fringe does not reflect how brutal and cruel they would be.
@ Cliff – re: replying to me
I’m sorry but a poor asian guy had posters slapped outside his shop without him knowing and he didnt even fully understand what they meant. This was also, coincidentally, the same time as when his shop was broken into. I explained what they were and we asked if he wanted us to take them down and he agreed and we did. If thats not doing a service for the people of my town then I dont know what is.
We need to stop the racists and the fascist and I don’t care what you think.
Joshua,
Councillors should not “hang around” polling stations. However, it is perfectly legitimate, indeed proper, that candidates should visit each polling station in the ward / constituency they are expecting to represent. They should do so, not to drum up support, but to thank all the staff at the polling station who have a long and arduous day.
What you may however be referring to are the party “tellers” who collect polling numbers as voters exit the polling station. There are rules governing the behaviour of tellers, including that they should not enter the polling station itself, and should not ask people about tehir voting intention, but they are an important part of our democracy – sadly undermined by the promotion of postal / proxy voting on demand on the mistaken assumption that making something easier makes peole “more inolved”.
In principle, all parties putting up a candidate ought to have a teller present at the polling station. If they do not, it suggests that they are not serious about winning the seat in question. That is because the reason for telling is to measure how much of your pledged support has already voted, and identifying those who need to be encouraged to get out and vote. Obviously if a party has not canvassed, or has little expectation of winning enough support to have a chance of victory, then telling is a labour-intensive process for little benefit.
Finally, while all of the above holds true for councils and Westminster, where elections are fought on a first past the post in a relatively small defined area, it is less practical in terms of the Euro-Elections where seats are allocated on a party list basis across a wide region. You certainly would not expect any candidate in Scotland or the South East to even attempt visiting every polling station in their region.
@ Joshua
Quite right. There needs to be some publicity about what telling is, why parties do it and its importance to the electoral process in helping drive up turnout.
I think it is right to assume that there will be quite a few (self-definining) working-class Labour voters around who want to protest, and that that is likely to mean either British Nazi Party or Greens.
I guess which one will at least partly depend on the local situation – whether the BNP or tghe Greens are present on the ground. And for that reason I am not convined that it is all BNP in Yorkshire, as the Greens are quite organised there and have quite a few councillors (esp. in West Yorkshire). The NW and the W Midlands are different as in both regions the Greens are very weak in most places.
Edward Schaffer,
How will the Democratic Unionist manage to get 2 seats with one candidate???
@Anthony
As at 11:30, Sky and The Telegraph still disagree about which poll question resulted in the 37/21/19 findings.
Since the Telegraph have made no change to their article, can you confirm that your statement is sourced from YouGov?
From Peter Kellner, so copper-bottomed certain.
If the Tories are polling at 37% for Westminster although this is still perfectly good enough to secure a majority given Labour’s rating I imagine it will worry Cameron on a political basis. Whoever wins will need to take some very tough decisions, and will really want a big mandate. No one ever gets 50%+ these days, but in 97 there was a sense of a big endorsement for Blair, and I’m sure Cameron wants the same. Anything under 40% I think would disappoint him and create an avenue to question the political legitimacy of controversial policies, especially from a party so strongly set against electoral reform.
These EU and local polls won’t give any real clue as to the GE result, but the Westminster polls are interesting.
“but in 97 there was a sense of a big endorsement for Blair,”
really? on a (genuinely) collapsed turnout… it works out at 26% of the electorate… the lefty media might have portrayed it as such, but the numbers speak for themselves.
I agree though, that Cameron is hardly being resoundingly endorsed; more of a begrudging “anything but labour” vote.
————————————————————————–
“JimPage
More evidence of the B-NP voting collapse- same polling company, similar sample size.
Bye bye to the Na-zis”
Are you aware of how ridiculous you sound?
You, “DirtyEuro”, “Tom”, and “Joshua” really ought to fit in a bit of reading up on what fasc-ism (Gentile; North Korean “Ju-Che”; bin-Laden; Mugabe; Stalin; Mao; Burma etc..) and Na-zism is between lectures, lest you inadvertently turn out to be practising and preaching it in disguise.
Whatever disingenuous and extremist histrionics you scrawl on here, there is every likelihood that “the party that dare speak it’s name” will get between 3 and 5 MEPs, and you are going to have to grow up and deal with it, because quite clearly, whatever you spout isn’t working – if it was, they wouldn’t even be on the radar. You are preaching to the converted here (or to yourselves); it’s easy to put a post online, but why don’t you put your knuckles on a few door knockers instead and ask real human people why they are voting for them; and rejecting what you would like them to vote for?
Joshua,
Whether or not you think you were doing people a “service” or not is irrelevant. Ripping down posters of a political party during an election campaign is illegal.
@Promsan – I appreciate your point on the numbers in 97, but that’s only why I used the words ’sense of a big endorsement…’. From memory they got 44% of the votes cast, but I could be wrong. I was making a point more about the politics of it really, and how a sub 40% score might affect a Cameron government in the years ahead.
I must however fully endorse your comments re the BNP. They are achieving a profile, and a significant minority feel able to support them. Calling these people names is counterproductive – it makes the BNP’s point for them that the political establishment has left them behind, whether or not this reflects the facts. Deal with them by proving them wrong – establish clear policies to meet the difficulties in society they (sometimes quite correctly) diagnose, don’t allow them the space to fill policy voids with extremist based solutions, and permit them to take part in democracy but in a decent and dignified way mash them completely.
Neil,
From what Joshua said, it would appear that these were stickers being put on private property without the property-owner’s consent. Removing them was perfectly legitimate while posting them in such a manner is illegal. Just as any other form of graffiti constitutes criminal damage, and it is perfectly legal for a property owner to remove it.
Affixing politcal posters to street furniture is a grey area, and removing those may be illegal. Only the local authority (as the owner of said property) could do so.
If you believe that what Joshua was doing was wrong in the circumstances, then you highlight the ridiculous situation we have in this country where if a shop-keeper manhandles a shoplifter he gets charged with assault while the villain gets away scot-free.
Conservative 24% 23
UKIP 19% 14
Labour 14% 10!!!
Liberal 13% 10
Green 10% 6
BNP 8% 3
BNP won’t collapse, I am sure they consistently underpoll.
I think it is a shame how British society treats BNP members. The ones who are criminal let them be shamed for their criminal behaviour, but the same for Tories, Labour, far left, etc. Clearly the whole establishment + security services (which you know must have many informants in the party) do what they can to suppress its support. Nonetheless, it progresses in forgotten working class Britain.
And no, most of the latter won’t be pushed to vote for libertarians who want the UK to virtually join the US and further kill itself with “free trade” (UKIP policies) just because they don’t like the EU. There is some class consciousness remaining.
Anthony,
Do you know if anywhere is counting tonight and if the results will be added to the BBC results page online later tonight/early hours tomorrow?
Tonight’s Channel 4 news made it sound as if everywhere is counting tomorrow – what is the position please?
Note the SNP figures from the Scottish breakdown – big sample more important than normal.
Lead of 8 per cent at Westminster and 9 pe rcent in the Euros – makes you feel that the ice is begining to
globally melt north of the Tweed.
A watershed General Election may be on the way.
I have now made my final predictions for each region (except NI). Please go and have a look and tell me where I went wrong. I think everyone should make their own predictions so we can see on Monday morning who was most accurate – just a little bit of fun. You have to do it before the locals are announced or else you have an unfair advantage.
My totals were:
Conservatives – 26 seats (maybe 25)
Labour – 15 seats
UKIP – 11 seats (maybe up to 13)
Libdems – 11 seats (maybe 10)
Greens – 2 seats
SNP – 2 seats
BNP – 1 seat
Plaid Cymru – 1 seat
There are a couple of regions where things seem very close, hence the “maybe” figures in brackets.
I think Labour will come 2nd in terms of seats, this does NOT necessarily mean they will come second in terms of votes cast. I just think their vote spread will be more efficient – SW England will be the only region where Labour miss out on a seat, while UKIP will miss out in Scotland; Wales and NE England.
The Greens will hold their 2 seats, but I can’t see them gaining. The BNP will gain one in the North West, but will miss out in Yorkshire and Humberside.
Alec
Thanks. At least I’m not wittering to myself like the BNP-bashers.
Neil makes a valid point… if you can’t beat the B-NP without resorting to criminality, then you are hardly going to sound credible as “anti-Fascists” or defenders of freedom and intellectual inquiry.
Fas-cism, as practised in many states (as diverse as Belorussia, Sudan, and Turkmenistan) is honestly a world away from what the B-NP actually represent; and is far closer to the kind of institutionalised objurgation and talibanisation of political expression people like you and cohorts of baby boomers in the media appear to be attempting with the monotonous splenetic parrotings issued like a jumping record.
The people who vote for them would probably not wish to be associated with you anyway for all manner of cultural and economic disenfranchisment reasons, so they’re hardly going to get into a moral panic over anything that comes out of the likes of the various labour-party sponsored organisations who frequently indulge in ritualised bouts of 2-minutes of hate – I know, I’ve grown up amongst them, and been lucky enough to experience other highly contrasting cultural worlds.
The truth is that I think a lot people vote B-NP because of, rather than in spite of the “JimPage”s and “Joshua”s of this world – just to stick two fingers up at them… I think rather like America needed to create bogeymen like North Korea to justify their industrial-military complex; the lefties actually *need* the B-NP to deflect attention from their own inadequacies… as they appear to *need* the invention of “Al Qaeda” to justify the genuinely fascist removal of various civil liberties.
Who was it who forbade you from peaceful protest outside parliament? not the B-NP… who wants a bill of rights with a US-style first amendment? not newLabour.
Who’s the “fascist” now?
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Thomas, the B-NP are a cultural phenomenon; not a political one, they are intrinsically wrapped up in the betrayal of the indigenous working classes by Labour.
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Alec, I’m totally with you on the Cameron point… he really hasn’t won anything if he can’t match Blair’s score in ‘97.
…I hope and pray we’re in for more than one watershed.
I’m hoping for a shock result in *all* the forthcoming elections.
I agree with those who are against the visceral BNP-bashers. There is a streak of independence in many English people that would go something like this “All the parties who have let me down are against this party, and tell me not to vote for them. Therefore I will”
Also, by calling them Nazis (which they aren’t), you are helping to create a Nazi party, because those who do happen to have Nazi-like opinions (and there are a few) will be attracted to them. Most of these people would probably not otherwise be involved in politics.
Oh, and Tom, I didn’t misspell ‘inflammatory’.
“Global environmental crisis and global flu; these are the problems that are facing our country”
Jim Knight – Schools minister on BBC 24 a couple of minutes ago.
LMAO. Who is he kidding?
Promscan – I’m sure we can all deal with the BNP getting 1 seat, 3 seats or 12 seats.
It’s not name calling to refer to the BNP as Nazi’s, it’s about political classification.
From the BNP website, Nick Griffin’s article “The BNP:Anti-asylum protest, racist sect or power-winning movement ?” “An official statement by Party Chairman Nick Griffin.”
“miscegenation, [sex between people of different races] which we (the BNP) recognise as a form of genocide. This last assessment is shared by perhaps 10,000 people in the entire country, and probably would be regarded as an overstatement even by some – though, mericfully, not many of our own activists”
“there can be little doubt that virtually every one of our voters and a majority of our activists are compromised by some aspect of ‘multi-culti’ experiment, whether it be by supporting teams which include non-whites, buying ethnic takeaways or getting on well with a few individual members of ethnic minorities”
Do you agree with Mr Griffin I wonder ?
Nick Griffin again, same article – “It is a temptation to think, .. we can in turn move to a more ‘principled’ ‘hardline’ position and still take a significant number of voters with us. Tempting but politically suicidal.”
Does that sound like a party that fearless says what it means ?
The BNP line that when people quote what the BNP say it is a smear, a security services plant, funded by searchlight or “facistic” etc. is rather pathetic.
Tom, it’s an inaccurate political classification… and transparant logical fallacy of “argumentum ad nazium”.
Fascism was defined by Giovanni Gentile – read up.
Actually Tom, my wife is of a different ethnicity to me (and my children are “miscegenated”), so don’t you dare start trying the same mock-liberal ad hominem abuse that genuine fascists like you seem to enjoy.
I’m educated enough to know that “race” does not exist; and by implication, neither does racism. Ethnicity is what is meant; and ethnocentrism is what is going on.
Do I agree with Mr Griffin…
Well even the way you raise that question is McCarthyite… Do you really mean “Am I an evil Nazi?”
However, your self-evident inarticulacy and incipience is enough for me disregard that, and report that actually, I am intellectually curious enough to challenge all my opinions (as an engineer and an linguist/area studies grad), and open enough to read all manifestos without prejudice – unlike genuine bigots like you (bigotry meaning the stubborn refusal to engage with new information, simply because of the source), who will only shop for ideas at same “Fash food” joint.
There is content in more than one manifesto that I can go along with, including that of the B-NP; though I do recognise that the way they express ideas should be refined – but I am able to discern the difference between the content of a message from the packaging.
There is no party that sufficiently represents my views, but I’ve no problem with anyone voting B-NP, because I know that long-term it will result is a pile of smouldering resentments to be “had out” in public, and for solutions to be found.
To the point you clumsily try to raise: yes, I think we need a complete moratorium on immigration; I think we need “a first amendment”; I see “mulitculturalism” or “immigrationism” and “globalisation” (putting profit before people and their identity) as a problem for human societies all over the planet: be they Tibetans and West Papuans or native Australians or Amazonians being ethnically cleansed in their homeland; or the carve up of Africa pitching tribe against tribe… it is a fact of human nature, and the British are as human as any of those groups… and has been through history:
“Another cause of revolution is difference of races which do not at once acquire a common spirit; for a state is not the growth of a day, any more than it grows out of a multitude brought together by accident. Hence the reception of strangers in colonies, either at the time of their foundation or afterwards, has generally produced revolution; for example, the Achaeans who joined the Troezenians in the foundation of Sybaris, becoming later the more numerous, expelled them; hence the curse fell upon Sybaris. At Thurii the Sybarites quarrelled with their fellow-colonists; thinking that the land belonged to them, they wanted too much of it and were driven out.”
Aristotle, “Politics”, Part III, Book V (4th century BC)
No go back the university library and get a book on critical thinking and logical fallacy before trying it on again.
Promsan – That’s what he said, it was on the BNP website. A simple yes or no would do.
The BNP policy is not one of a moratorium on immigration. Even you should know that.
Your proving the point really, like Nick Griffin, your true views can’t be hidden.
Like a true amateur fascist and demagogue, you are trying to dictate the answer to your own question… Stalin would be proud.
It is another logical fallacy: the false dilemma.
There is not “one question” there to agree with, but three statements:
1. There is a statement about “miscegenation” – I am a serial miscegenator (!).
2. There is a statement about a survey I’ve never heard of.
3. There is a statement about what the majority of BNP voters and activists think – I’ve never knowingly met any.
With that in mind, to bumblingly grunt a transparently lame loaded question out that doesn’t display any evidence that you yourself have even read the quotes you’ve pasted, of “do you agree with Mr Griffen”, as if you are some kind of “Columbo”, and expect an answer, is a bit thick, don’t you think? (I mean literally, “Don’t you think?!”)
I’ve already answered your question with my answer, not your answer. The reason I did that, is because your question is flawed.
I’ve just googled that article – can’t find it.
“www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&client=opera&rls=en&hs=YRE&q=%22The+BNP%3AAnti-asylum+protest%2C+racist+sect+or+power-winning+movement%3F%22&btnG=Search&meta=”
Do you honestly expect anyone to respond to something you can’t cite?!
I don’t mind that B-NP don’t explicitly say they want a “moratorium on immigration”; what they do say is, and (unlike you, I can cite it) I quote:
“we call for an immediate halt to all further immigration, the immediate deportation of criminal and illegal immigrants, and the introduction of a system of voluntary resettlement whereby those immigrants who are legally here will be afforded the opportunity to return to their lands of ethnic origin assisted by a generous financial incentives both for individuals and for the countries in question.”
[source: "http://bnp.org.uk/policies/immigration/", last accessed 2009-06-06]
The first part of this amounts to the same thing; the second part is fine by me; the third part I don’t object to either, because there is no compulsion; hence it is not fascist.
If you go around raking up every single error of judgment or ill-conceived inarticulate utterance that every person ever does, you will find the whole world wanting – especially yourself. It is a man’s perogative to change his mind – why don’t you change yours for one that works?
It is only you who are proving that your true colours can’t be hidden – you want us all to think like you do, or face various punishments for heresy against your cult.
“last accessed 2009-06-05]”
“Behold the evil liar!” etc…
yawn.
Tom,
Plato’s “Early Socratic Dialogues” is a good book. The penguin classics version is Trevor Saunders’ translation (that’s the one I have) and it has a very good explanation of logical fallacy. I highly recommend it.
Promsan – So where is the land of ethnic origin to which your children wil be sent – with generous assistance from the taxpayer ?
Your open minded enough to view Giovanni Gentile as the last word on the definition of facism, when I never called the BNP fascists anyway.
Your so keyed up on rigerous critical thinking you accept the BNP manifesto as the last word on their policies and views.
I wonder why they took this and other articles off their website ?
You don’t even know whether I suport the BNP or not, you’ve just made an assumption.
…and of course, it does depend on what you mean by “immigration” …there are various kinds; but I’m assuming that we are talking about permanent settlement and citizenship; and work visas. I don’t have a problem with indefinite leave to remain for foreign spouses, but I would not support spouses getting British citizenship, for the obvious reason that you want to ensure that there is never even the possibility of marriages of convenience taking place, not just for economic reasons, but also for criminal/human trafficking reasons: it’s a moral position.
Likewise with asylum seekers, it is better for them to be dealt with nearer their place of origin; e.g.: funding the set up of mass-support for South Africa to support Zimbabweans, and facilitating their training so they can re-take control of their country from a truly fascist regime.
…I can get very detailed about it and cite clear moral arguments to support each view … but this is not the place for this kind of exposition; so stop trying to hijack it.
“Tom
Promsan – So where is the land of ethnic origin to which your children wil be sent – with generous assistance from the taxpayer ?”
You really are proving me right aren’t you… read the quote, it says “no compulsion”… I’m dyslexic, what’s your excuse?
“Your open minded enough to view Giovanni Gentile as the last word on the definition of facism, when I never called the B-NP fascists anyway.”
Gentile’s the first word; why would anyone take third-hand info from splenetic opponents seriously?
(true… a consolation goal for you to reminisce upon).
“Your so keyed up on rigerous critical thinking you accept the B-NP manifesto as the last word on their policies and views.”
Occam’s Razor old bean. You can’t have it both ways – either they’re scar-faced cat-stroking Dr Evils or knuckle-dragging thugs who use drugged up donkeys to type their manifestos.
(I’m also keyed up on spelling most of the time…)
“I wonder why they took this and other articles off their website ?”
Perhaps they just changed their mind, it does happen – why don’t you try it?
“You don’t even know whether I suport the B-NP or not, you’ve just made an assumption.”
No I didn’t. There you go again… not reading things properly… jumping to conclusions that suit your prejudices.
…such is the way of the true believer who twists facts to suit arguments rather than arguments to suit facts.
They have dual citizenship, they can choose; without subsidy.
Enough – go and argue elsewhere.