Comments on: European elections – final predictions

By: Neil

Neil — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 11:37:17 +0000

Well done Michael! I didn’t predict percentages, only seats, but I got 66 out of 69 correct – thats 95.7% – I feel pretty good about that. You and I should be pundits on the telly.

By: Michael

Michael — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 08:44:57 +0000

My predictions (see above) and actual result
Prediction Actual
Con 28 28.6
UKIP 18 17.4
LD 17 13.9
Lab 15 15.3
Green 10 8.7

So I overestimated LD a bit but otherwise very close, and I think I was the only one to predict that UKIP would come second.

By: Ernie

Ernie — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 01:30:17 +0000

Not much good is it? How come none of your “polls” predict Plaid Cymru or the SNP taking seats?

By: Badger

Badger — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 00:21:14 +0000

I predict:

Con 24, Lab 15, Lib Dems 12
UKIP 11, Greens 2, BNP 2
SNP 2, Plaid 1
N Ireland: SF 1, DUP 1, UCUNF 1

By region:
Eastern: C 3, UKIP 2, LD 1, Lab 1
London: C 3, LD 2, Lab 1, UKIP 1, Grn 1
S East: C 4, UKIP 2, LD 2, Lab 1, Grn 1
S West: C 2, UKIP 2, LD 1, Lab 1
Wales: Lab 2, Plaid 1, C 1
Scotland: SNP 2, Lab 2, C 1, LD 1
N East: Lab 1, LD 1, C 1
N West: C 3, Lab 2, LD 1, UKIP 1, BNP 1
Yorks: C 2, Lab 2, LD 1, UKIP 1
E Midlands: C 2, UKIP 1, Lab 1, LD 1
W Midlands: C 2, UKIP 1, Lab 1, LD 1, BNP 1 (plus a third Conservative for when the region regains its 7th seat when Lisbon comes into force)

By: mark erickson

mark erickson — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 23:07:47 +0000

The BNP have seen their support increase across the board both locally and nationally, and in terms of its active base, over the last 5 years. I would expect their vote to increase between 50-80% from 2004, so 1.2 – 1.45 million votes based on 2004 results or 7-9% based on 2004 percentages. If they don’t, then there is something seriously wrong with British politics, as it would go completely against their increasing presence and activity in British politics.

With regional variations, a 50%+ increase in say the NW would easily give the BNP 9-10%, enough to elect Griffin. As for UKIP, they have performed so badly electorally since 2004, and are so endemically riddled with corrupt internal wranglings and MEP fraud, that to see their vote incease would be a total travesty of their electoral record. One really c annot predict the impact of either anti-BNP media or pro-UKIP “talk-up” media in these elections.

Other such as No2EU, Soc Lab, Eng Dems and Libertas will struggle to get 1-2% each.