Comments on: European elections – final predictions

By: Neil

Neil — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 11:37:17 +0000

Well done Michael! I didn’t predict percentages, only seats, but I got 66 out of 69 correct – thats 95.7% – I feel pretty good about that. You and I should be pundits on the telly.

By: Michael

Michael — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 08:44:57 +0000

My predictions (see above) and actual result
Prediction Actual
Con 28 28.6
UKIP 18 17.4
LD 17 13.9
Lab 15 15.3
Green 10 8.7

So I overestimated LD a bit but otherwise very close, and I think I was the only one to predict that UKIP would come second.

By: Ernie

Ernie — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 01:30:17 +0000

Not much good is it? How come none of your “polls” predict Plaid Cymru or the SNP taking seats?

By: Badger

Badger — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 00:21:14 +0000

I predict:

Con 24, Lab 15, Lib Dems 12
UKIP 11, Greens 2, BNP 2
SNP 2, Plaid 1
N Ireland: SF 1, DUP 1, UCUNF 1

By region:
Eastern: C 3, UKIP 2, LD 1, Lab 1
London: C 3, LD 2, Lab 1, UKIP 1, Grn 1
S East: C 4, UKIP 2, LD 2, Lab 1, Grn 1
S West: C 2, UKIP 2, LD 1, Lab 1
Wales: Lab 2, Plaid 1, C 1
Scotland: SNP 2, Lab 2, C 1, LD 1
N East: Lab 1, LD 1, C 1
N West: C 3, Lab 2, LD 1, UKIP 1, BNP 1
Yorks: C 2, Lab 2, LD 1, UKIP 1
E Midlands: C 2, UKIP 1, Lab 1, LD 1
W Midlands: C 2, UKIP 1, Lab 1, LD 1, BNP 1 (plus a third Conservative for when the region regains its 7th seat when Lisbon comes into force)

By: mark erickson

mark erickson — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 23:07:47 +0000

The BNP have seen their support increase across the board both locally and nationally, and in terms of its active base, over the last 5 years. I would expect their vote to increase between 50-80% from 2004, so 1.2 – 1.45 million votes based on 2004 results or 7-9% based on 2004 percentages. If they don’t, then there is something seriously wrong with British politics, as it would go completely against their increasing presence and activity in British politics.

With regional variations, a 50%+ increase in say the NW would easily give the BNP 9-10%, enough to elect Griffin. As for UKIP, they have performed so badly electorally since 2004, and are so endemically riddled with corrupt internal wranglings and MEP fraud, that to see their vote incease would be a total travesty of their electoral record. One really c annot predict the impact of either anti-BNP media or pro-UKIP “talk-up” media in these elections.

Other such as No2EU, Soc Lab, Eng Dems and Libertas will struggle to get 1-2% each.

By: Michael

Michael — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 22:19:42 +0000

If as many expect Conservatives win clearly and then there is a group of Labour, LibDem and UKIP all very close together, the D’Hondt system could produce some very strange results. It does not work very well when there are several parties nearly equal and only a small number of seats.
I predict
Con 28
UKIP 18
LD 17
Lab 15
Green 10

By: Promsan

Promsan — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 13:28:51 +0000

“Also compare with the likes of De Linke (Germany), Syriza (Greece) and the Anticapitalist Party (France). All three have grown out of alliances between left groups and trade unions – all are achieving SIGNIFICANT electoral success, and – importantly – the growth of these has directly resulted in the electoral demise of the far-right.”

are you on drugs? where’s the evidence for that!?

By: Grels

Grels — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 12:28:28 +0000

my prediction is that the overall national percentages will be as follows:
Con 27%, Lab 17%, UKIP 16%, LD 15%, Green 11%, BNP 7%

translated into total seats, thinking about likely regional variations, my guess would be this:
Con 22, Lab 16, UKIP 9, LD 10, Green 6, BNP 1, nationalists 4.

I suspect a low vote for the major parties coupled with a push by the Greens/BNP could result in both parties gaining a seat in the North West.
I think this might overstate the Green case, I think 4 or 5 might be more realistic, and the 8 I saw in mentioned in the Telegraph is probably too ambitious. The 5 seats and collapse of UKIP from the same publication is also unlikely I think, given recent political developments.

prediction by region:
EM Con 2, Lab 1, UKIP 1, LD 1
EE Con 2, Lab 1, UKIP 1, LD 1, Green 1
LDN Con 2, Lab 2, UKIP 1, LD 2, Green 1
NE Con 1, Lab 2
NW Con 2, Lab 2, UKIP 1, LD 1, Green 1, BNP 1
SE Con 4, Lab 1, UKIP 2, LD 2, Green 1
SW Con 2, Lab 1, UKIP 1, LD 1, Green 1
WM Con 2, Lab 2, UKIP 1, LD 1
YH Con 2, Lab 2, UKIP 1, LD 1
W Con 1, Lab 1, PC 2
S Con 2, Lab 1, SNP 2, SGreen 1

By: Lee

Lee — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 10:23:25 +0000

@James Ludlow
-Probably down to Bob Crow

@Luke
- I agree about BNP. I’m putting a fiver on them not getting any seat at all

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 10:15:36 +0000

Christian,

Valid point about the average distribution of seats per region in the South vs North/Midlands. Ever asked why that should be – gerrymandering by the government at the time to preserve their blushes in the SE.

As to polling figures, I think you may find the Griffin party exceeds the Green party by a greater margin in the North / Midlands than vice-versa in the south, such that their total shares are broadly similar nationally, but Griffins may fly higher..