The Green Party have released a poll they’ve commissioned from ComRes on the European elections. It shows voting intentions of CON 24%, LAB 22%, LDEM 14%, UKIP 17%, Green 15%, BNP 2%.

I haven’t seen the tables just yet, so I’m treating it with some caution, as you should any polling commissioned by political parties until you’ve checked the questions for yourself, but assuming all is above board and kosher it shows the Greens doing very well and the Lib Dems in fifth place.

As promised, I’ll do a round up of all the European polls sometime today or tomorrow.

UPDATE: I’ve seen the tables for the poll, but they don’t help that much as they don’t show how the voting intention questions was asked, and what I’m interested in is which minor parties (if any) were prompted for. It also appears that it wasn’t past vote weighted, probably contributing to the lower level of Conservative support.


76 Responses to “ComRes show Greens ahead of Lib Dems”

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  1. The Conservatives have produced a truly dreadful Euro election leaflet where they want more pesticide on the land than Europe allows. Is this forcing many Tories to the Greens? Being poisoned by your local Tory fatcat farmer is too much to stomach.

  2. Maybe if Labour poll closer to 15% than 20% in the Euro elections Brown will have to think about stepping down.

  3. I don’t think that Comres would prejudice their reputation by distorting a poll commissioned by the Greens or not.

    What is important about the Scottish samples of every poll that ALL show the NATS in the lead.

    It looks certain therefore that Labour are heading for only their second defeat in Scotland in 50 years.

    The disolution of Parliament motion by the Plaid/SNP for next week is a tactical mastersroke.

  4. The BNP postal vote is shockingly large in some regions, probably 15-20%.

    If this support is equalled on Thursday it will be smiles all round on the BNP camp.

  5. “Wes

    Anthony please disregard my previous post, I’ve read through your ’shy Tories’ explanation properly now.

    How about a “Shy Osborne” effect… he’s had zero air time since that polava with Mandy!

  6. I agree about the SNP; all polls seem to show (albeit with tiny samples) a decent increased support for the SNP.

    Now any one of those polls can be ignored on statistical grounds- and perhaps all of them – but I’m sure the SNP would much rather have the polls suggesting this solid increase rather than the reverse. And certainly Labour / Liberals / Tories would delighted if they had them.

  7. I believe the questions was

    if all of the other parties went out of business and the green party was the last party on earth would you vote for them?!

  8. Tony,
    I think the site has gone down twice in the last two days for several hours at a time for me. Any idea what’s causing this problem?

  9. Nope – it’s not traffic, since it tends to happen in the middle of the night when traffic is low.

  10. “The BNP postal vote is shockingly large in some regions, probably 15-20%. If this support is equalled on Thursday it will be smiles all round on the BNP camp.”

    Fantasy stuff based on rumour. BNP vote will be done on 2004, that is for sure

  11. My guess for the European elections is:
    CON 28%
    LAB 18%
    LD 15%
    UKIP 15%
    GREEN 11%
    BNP 5%

    Which wouldn’t be a difference of more than 4% from any result in the ComRes poll. So may just be an inexplicable rogue poll.

  12. Jimpage,

    “Fantasy stuff based on rumour. BNP vote will be done (‘down’) on 2004, that is for sure”

    Why are you so convinced? It seems to me that there has never been a better time for them to be honest. If I were to be forced to guess 7 or 8% seems reasonable.

    They’ve had more coverage than I can ever remember.

  13. Now The Guardian has decided that we need to change the system because the existing system won’t return a Labour government, I’d like to see some polls on things like PR, Alan Johnson and so on. Anyone know if any are forthcoming?

  14. The Guardian have long advocated constitutional reform (albeit in a rather laidback way, as something that should happen someday, rather than with any sense of urgency) – and their leader column on Monday encouraged voting for the Lib Dems, not Labour.

  15. Oliver and Jimpage,
    I think you’re both off-base. I think the party in question will be in the low to mid teens (i.e. 10-15%) in Northern England, possibly a hair higher in specific locales, but probably settle in somewhere around 6-8% nationally in the EU elections. In local elections they’ll probably nab a decent number of seats (mind you, a lot of this depends on where they have good candidates). My personal guess is that between them, all of the “others” (that is, not Con, Lib, or Lab) pull in somewhere around 35-40%. For estimates at the moment:
    CON 28%
    LAB 16%
    LD 15%
    UKIP 17%
    GREEN 10%
    BNP 7%
    SNP/PC 4%

  16. @James Ludlow – these are now the interesting questions. I think the next few days will either destroy Brown or the Labour party, and for the general good of democratic politics I hope it’s the former. In terms of personal salvation he really ought to heed the signs and volunteer to go, both for his party and the countries sake. Then it gets very interesting. The new PM could be in place quickly (23 days apparently) and if they pick a suitable candidate who comes straight in with an aggressive reform programme and a date for an Autumn election and actually acts rather than talks about fine things the polls come October could tell a very different story. Every new leader seems to get a bounce – conditions are such that they could maximise this and smart timing could yet prove Cameron’s nightmare. He may yet start calling for fixed term elections?
    With Brown’s positioning weakening by the hour the political situation is becoming ever more fluid and there are some candidates Cameron really fears.

  17. Odd that someone claims to know the results of the postal votes ! While the BNP wish to talk up their vote, there is an element of wishful thinking amongst their activists.

    Just because the BNP got almost 20% of the vote in a by-election in Middlesborough, doesn’t mean their support is 20%. Inevitably, turnout was low, 20%, meaning the actual % of the electorate voting BNP was about 4%. Plus of course the concentrated effort of a by-election campaign in a small ward is not replicated accross a region, where people possibly get a tatty freepost which they put in the bin without reading along with the Pizza leaflet.

    Also, the BNP tend to stand local election candidates in their strongest areas – therefore giving a false impression of their overall support. If there really was a surge, how come they can’t find candidates for the county elections?

    In my area the BNP canvass returns showed them ahead for two elections in a row. They had canvassed every house at least once and put out 4 leaflets. ey came a poor third both times, getting fewer votes the second time as they got their message accross !

  18. @ Wes – I think it’s fair to say that The Guardian has never gone this overboard on the issue before, and that the timing is obviously hugely significant. And they were urging people to vote LibDem in the Euro elections, not the long-awaited general election.

    @ Alec – I’m curious as to which candidates you think Cameron fears. We heard that about Brown and then about the return of Mandelson but it hasn’t amounted to much. Johnson seems the preferred candidate at the moment and personally I don’t think he’s a convincing substitute – he strikes me as ministerial material rather than leader material. I’m not convinced there would be much of a new leader bounce under the circumstances (2nd new leader in under 2 years, with no general election). However, this is just my personal view and as I said, I’d love to see a few polls on these issues.

  19. Ivan the Terrible

    As to why BNP will do badly….

    Their low poll rating- down to 2% yesterday
    They abandoned campaigning in most of the country several weeks ago in desperation
    Expenses scandal has not benefitted them
    Posties have boycotted their freepost communication in many areas
    The high level of general turnout tomorrow will affect them
    Mass tactical turnout by antifascist voters against them

    But most importanntly, their Nazi and Criminal nature has been thoroughly exposed by the media

  20. @Jimpage,

    Well, apart from that little tirade seeming blatently partisan, I think it’s not particularly accurate …wishful thinking indeed.
    Evidence speaks louder than logically fallacious propagandary flavoured appendages to data (such as “abandoned”, “desperation”, “boycotted”, “mass tactical turnout”, “na-zi”, “cri-minal””, and “exposed”) – who are you preaching to? Treat people on here with a little more discernment, please!

    I think most people know where the real fas-cists, na-zis, and cri-minals are… (…and maybe look up what those words actually mean, rather than parrot stuff you got off a bi-ased site).

    I mean Tom is correct to an extent, but neither talking them up nor talking them down is really going to achieve what either side desperately wants (i.e.: mutual destruction).

    The evidence is there for anyone who wants to see it or hear it; and if you don’t, it’s not going to change the outcome – they will do ok in some areas, and not so well in others, and like it or not, you’re going to have to deal with it, because they are not going to vanish for your convenience.

  21. Jimpage,

    Fair points but I still think you’re going to be dissappointed. We’ll see on Monday but my guess is nearer 7% than 2%.

    “But most importanntly, their Nazi and Criminal nature has been thoroughly exposed by the media”

    Er… It’s been ‘exposed’ for as long as any of us can remember, no?
    I don’t think anyone ever voted for them because they seemed like the ‘nice party’!

  22. Those of you jumping through hoops to try and avoid comment moderation, I should really tell you that I haven’t got any “political words” on the moderation list – it’s just swear words and stuff that turns up a lot in spam. The most common word that triggers comment moderation is “cialis”, since it’s contained in the words “socialist” and “socialism”.

    Otherwise it’s normally things with links in, people changing their display name or email address, or things that the software just randomly takes a dislike to.

  23. “I don’t think anyone ever voted for them because they seemed like the ‘nice party’!”

    I think I’ll start calling them the Nice Party (NP) to circumvent the software moderation!

    Everybody who votes for something they believe in, believes they are morally right, and their enemies morally wrong – so it is with NP voters, who unlike mainstream votes are more likely to vote out of conviction rather than out of fear of conviction.

    Zealots invariably twist facts to fit theories, instead of twisting theories to fit facts; it’s as true of those who hate the NP, as much as it may be of some members of the NP: there is no asymmetry here (except in the mind of the zealot).

    As with all mock-liberals, the truth is more important than the facts (which seems to emanate from the lefty-wing media: the BBC, Guardian, Independent, Mirror…)

    Those who, like the ironically named “anti-fas.cists”, stand for nothing will fall for anything (they get shovelled at them by the lefty-wing media), and what is being exposed right now is the empty flabby twaddle of the BNP-o-phobes, who have no ideology, because they have no definition of “good” or “evil” to build ideology (and thus policy) from… just the 7 deadly sins (and no I’m not religious).

    The notion that the NP are somehow morally worse than Labour & Co. sounds utterly bizarre now: they’re as morally krap and incompetent as each other.

  24. @Anthony, any chance of removing [email protected] from the list then? :)

  25. Anthony Wells
    I have been misled by my Doctor who said ‘Cialis’ was something for the weekend.
    I have not turned red with it however!

  26. Tony,
    Ok. I thought you had a moderation point out on the BNP’s name for some reason, that’s all. I’ve gotta say that unintended word burials (like what you mentioned) are amusing, though.

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