The record for Labour’s lowest ever score in the polls seems to be getting broken anew every time a new poll comes out. Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has been released as has topline figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 40%(-1), LAB 18%(-10!), LDEM 18%(-4).

As with other recent Westminster polls, there is a high level of support for “other” parties. Here it is divided between 6% for the Greens, 7% for UKIP, 4% for the BNP and 4% for the SNP & PC.

Sadly MORI do not appear to have asked a European voting intention question as part of this poll.


43 Responses to “MORI show Labour dipping into the teens”

  1. Well, I think we’ve resolved that Labour is -not- in the high 20s…ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the twilight zone. This is going to be one hell of a ride; I can’t wait to watch.

  2. oh dear

  3. That is jaw dropping!!

    There are going to be dramatic developments on Friday, either Gordon purges the plotters or they’ll purge him!

  4. It’s probably just as well for Labour that a European vote question wasn’t asked!

  5. IO,
    I wouldn’t be surprised to see both happen in that order: He sacks them to try and stabilize things only to have them do the same to him. I kind of wonder how Lloyd George felt during the late 20s and early 30s.

  6. Wow. Wow. And again wow.

    Actually if we had not had the preceeding few polls people might not take this seriously, but in view of the trend, perhaps we ought to. Others doing REALLY well here, although I imagine they’ll struggle to get more than a seat or two between them. I reckon about 150 seats for labour, LibDems mopping up quite a lot of Labour seats where the Labour vote collapses, and of course, lots and lots of Conservatives (400+).

    and did I mention, “wow?”

    fascinating polling.

  7. I really cant see a way out for Brown

  8. @ Anyone

    When was this poll taken?

    If Labour has dropped further I wonder what that is in response to?

  9. If polls like this are reflected in Thursday’s voting there are going to be some parts of the country where Labour’s going to receive a truly derisory share of the vote such as rural areas in the SE and SW. We could see a lot of districts where Labour comes in 5th place or worse behind UKIP and the Greens.

  10. Adrian,

    Call a bloody election I’d say. At least he’d be remembered for one good deed!

  11. Well, I ran this on ElectoralCalculus (modifying Scotland to put the SNP up around 40, like I suspect this would indicate while cutting Labour to 25%, and boosting PC at the expense of both of the big two). Result:
    Con: 415
    Lab: 116
    Lib: 48
    Nat: 46

    Even EC is giving negative results in 9 seats and 0.00 in 2 seats (in spite of its best efforts to avoid them); it also gives about 151 lost deposits. By comparison, Labour lost only 107 deposits in 1983, and that was on the old 12.5% requirement.

  12. Not even the Conservatives during the poll tax ever dropped this low!

  13. Philip,
    The fact that the Queen didnt get an invitation to Normandy may be a factor, the expenses continuation, people like to get on a bandwagon and if they see people deserting lab in the polls it can have a domino effect (baa), more general economic gloom, Browns dithering over Darling, more parties getting exposure due to the forthcoming elections – take your pick

  14. Good riddance to Labour – it couldn’t happen to a bigger bunch of political crooks.

    Remember how they were going to “clean up politics”? LOL

    They deserve everything that’s coming their way – ANNIHILATION >:o)

  15. Not only Lab in the teens, but also level with LDs.

    We will now probably see a series of polls with Lab and LDs within a couple of ponts of each other, which by definition means that there will be more polls with Lab in third place.

    For the two real polls on Thursday I think that Lab will definitely be third behind LDs in the locals, which will be first to be counted. The worse those results are, the greater the likelihood that Lab have fallen to third or even fourth in the Euros. when they are announced on Sunday.

  16. Labour have dropped 0.5% lower than the Tories went at their lowest in the 92-97 parliament. In January 1995 their was a Gallup poll putting the Tories on 18.5%;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997

  17. How does Labour’s 18% compare to the worst polls for Major’s Tories?

  18. This is shocking! We’re all saying how good this is for the Lib Dems being neck and neck with Labour, but at the end of the day they still look like they will lose lots of seats. Which is such a shame.

    Still time to go yet. My GE Prediction:
    Cons – 39%
    Lab – 24%
    Lib Dems – 24%

    God knows what will happen in the Euros!

  19. There is a poll for tomorrows Indy shwing Conservatives down to 30%(minus10) and Labour up to 22%(plus1) with smaller parties combined making 30%….and it is a Westminster poll.

  20. ComRes have a 30-22-18 poll out. Take your pick on the rogues.

  21. ComRes set the cat amongst the pigeons even more;

    Con 30???% Lab 22% Lib-Dem 18% Otr 30%!!!!!!!????

    And yes, this is a Westminster poll, not a euro election poll!

  22. Well this is only a single poll and Ipsos/Mori have the highest Standard Deviation of any pollster (3.5 on the Retrospectives). The Weighted Moving Average is 40:22:19

    But as I have noted ad nauseam the Lab:LibDem gap is closing rapidly (18 at end Dec, 12 at end March, 10 at end April, 3 at end May) and the risk to Labour of being eclipsed by the LibDems is pretty high. If Gordon stays on it is now at least 60%.

  23. I will wait until August before making my GE prediction. By then a dependable pattern is likely to emerge upon which to make a credible prediction.

  24. PS The ComRes poll is clearly a complete rogue – it brings the WMA to 37:22:19. Twice last year (30/11 amd 19/10) they have been almost as far out and in each case their error was mostly under-estimating the C Vote.

  25. If you look down at the detail in the Mori [look below the 10 certainty to vote] you see it is producing similar result to the ICM and Populus.

    Mike Smithson has said Comres have altered their past weight voting again for this poll and it favours Labour to the disadvantage of the Tories.

  26. According to the prediction tool on here, if those numbers are repeated at the General Election the Tories would win a majority of 188, even bigger than Labour in 1997. Another notable thing is that in the polls leading up to the 1997 General Election, Labour were in the high 40’s – low 50’s in most of them, and the Tories have been in the low 30’s to mid 40’s in these recent polls.

  27. Sorry, i meant “High 30’s”.

  28. Just read about the Comres poll in the comments. I don’t wish to blow my own trumpet but I have said on a few occasion in the past week that we need to be cautious about reading too much into the present polls.

    Once the dust settles probably by July the polls will become more consistent.

  29. If these high “others” figures continue we’ll have to rejig our seat calculators. I mean, if that ComRes poll is right, I think that would still be a small Conservative overall majority, but I couldn’t say for sure. It just depends how many seats the others might get for their 30%.

  30. There seems to be complete confusion over on the ConservativeHome site as to whether this ComRes poll is a Westminster or Euro poll.

  31. Interesting point: I checked through the numbers I plugged into EC, and I realized that generic “other” is picking up some seats on numbers like what we’re seeing.

  32. I am thinking along these lines: Labour finishes a poor fourth or even just possibly fifth in the Euros. There is an attempt to oust Gordon Brown and quickly replace him with Alan Johnson but this backfires when GB calls the plotters’ bluff. He’ll call an election if they try to proceed with the plan. GB acts on his word (I know this is most unlike him). Labour vote in total meltdown as the Cabinet is seen to be a load of self-serving, corrupt and squabbling politicians. Labour faces a result similar to that faced by Canada’s Progressive Conservatives in 1993, a near total wipe-out.

  33. How long will Gordon go on this is not good for the UK it is time for a GE let us the people speek.

  34. Andy, its a Westminster poll.

  35. Do those “other” seat pickups assume a monolithic “others” party?

  36. Keith,
    Per my last comment, I agree. As it stands, rejigging everything to account for the mess that is Scotland (with the SNP, not the Tories or LDs, rising there) is almost absolutely necessary, as Labour is probably holding 20-25 seats in some calculations that they likely won’t be.

    Elsewhere, the problem we run into is that the calculators assume that “other” is, in general, a negligible part of the formula. If “other” is fairly constantly well over 20%, and some minor parties are pegging in close to 10%, then we have to start looking at plausible pickups (such as the Greens in Brighton, for example).

  37. James,
    Most do, which is why I’m inclined to discount them. I do think it’s a sign of how bad it’s getting, though, that “other” is getting to that point.

  38. If i was a billionaire i put myself forward as a candidate. This is very much Ross Perot territory.
    Perhaps Branson, Alan sugar, OR Duncan Blantyne (tough name to spell) will put themselves forward.
    Chance for a millionaire to get elected.

  39. Thanks Gin. I thought it was myself, it’s just that over on the ToryHome website they can’t believe it is a Westminster poll since it’s not good news for them.

  40. I have a sneaking suspicion that both this and the Comres poll are rogues.

  41. Gray you assert

    “As it stands, rejigging everything to account for the mess that is Scotland (with the SNP, not the Tories or LDs, rising there) is almost absolutely necessary, as Labour is probably holding 20-25 seats in some calculations that they likely won’t be.”

    I first need to correct you, the Scottish Conservatives have enjyed a rise in support, having recieved a regular 20% from YouGov polling (Scotland only polls), and a 21% in early May. This is an increase from the depths of 2001 & 2005 of 15 odd per cent. I would say that this is a palpable ‘rise’ there… goodness the Scottish sample of a recent YouGov UK wide poll placed the Scots Tories on 29% (granted that is clearly an over inflated figure but still well above the depths of the 2005 election result)

    And the SNP have dipped in the YouGov Scotland only polls over the last 9 months, down according to YouGov by approx. 7%! Going from 34% in the Sunday Times/YouGov 3 Sep 08 – 5 Sep 08 to 27% in the Sunday TImes/YouGov 12 Mar 09 – 13 Mar 09 for example. Now we see their support rise again to around 30/32% in these same YouGov polling, that is merely making up ground lost from 2007, hardly making palpably even greater ground.

    All I mean is that the SNP chances of getting masive swings in Scotland in any Westminster or Euro election may well be hype and could fail to materialise.

  42. Looking at what Nbeal has said i must agree that the Lab:Lib gap has shrunk alot, at this rate we could se Labour and the Ldems coming joint second throughout the begining summer and Labour being overtaken towards the end more consistantly.

  43. Well, this differs so much from the other pollsters that either Comres or the other pollsters are going to have egg all over their faces on Monday morning.

    Anthony – would it be worth opening up a separate thread for post mortems on Sunday night?