The Sunday Times today carries the first poll for the forthcoming Glasgow North East by-election. It is carried out by Scottish Opinion and shows vote shares of CON 6%, LAB 51%, LDEM 3%, SNP 33%.

The Sunday Times report concludes from this that “The SNP would struggle to win a snap by-election in Michael Martin’s Glasgow North East constituency”. I wouldn’t be so sure – Scottish Opinion also polled for the Glasgow East by-election, and a week before polling day were showing a 17% Labour lead…


17 Responses to “First Glasgow North East poll”

  1. I think that the SNP will have a good shot at this, and I expect that gap to close, being as that the by-election fever hasn’t set in.

    I’m not such a fan of failing to challenge Speakers in their seats: they should be as answerable to their electorate as others, although it seems hard to meld their non-partisan role (well, it was before Martin, as Boothroyd showed) with a political defence of their seat.

  2. Of course, Labour is ahead. It’s a Labour stronghold, and the SNP hasn’t been campaigning yet. The poll may also be skewed if an anti-sleaze candidate comes forward.

  3. Three things to point out:

    (1) This is almost the same position the SNP were in 10 days into the campaign at Glasgow East year. Which they won.

    (2) The share of the vote for the SNP has doubled since the election in 2005.

    (3) The level of Don’t Knows is a massive 41%. It’s not unreasonable to assume that these are people who are turned off by Labour but not yet sure where to put their vote. it wouldn’t take many of them going to the SNP for them to nudge ahead of Labour.

    it’s very much game on in Glasgow North East.

  4. A lot will depend on how bad the Labour performance in the Euro elections is (and how good the SNP performance is).

    Party morale, and keenness to campaign may well be critical.

  5. Labour might have a good ground operation, or they might run a successful negative or even smear campaign against the SNP candidate (which would be an ironic way to win given Damian McBride).

    I’m just saying, there’s lots of ways Labour could retain an 18 point lead.

  6. A voting intention poll in the Telegraph (so its presumably YouGov?) showing healine voting intention share of; Con 39% Lab 22% Lib-Dem 18%

    Telegraph headline also says more people want an election than reform.

  7. Quincel,

    Labour don’t have a good ground operation anywhere in Glasgow, they have been in power so long that they have let their grass roots atrophy because they haven’t needed to fight for years.

    Jeff,

    41% undecided is about right for a seat with a 59% turn out and where 52% have no formal qualifications and 51% live in rented accommodation.

  8. The Scottish Tories will get somewhere between 6-8% as long as the Scottish Unionist Party do no stand.

    But this is Glasgow; and I do not expect the tories to do well, but neither the SNP- they are not at the golden heights of 2007 (Glenrothes surely demonstrated that even partially). But it will be extremely tight… this is Springburn (I think) so Labour cant loose here, its hardly scarcely possible.

  9. But it comes down to whether there will in fact be a by-election at all.

    Timing is the key. Obvious choices are late July or late September.

    In the wake of disastrous euro-election results Brown would be a fool to go for an early poll here. He is more likely to wait until Autumn – perhaps during Labour conference in the hope the expenses furore and the euros are forgotten. This would also give Labour time to rebuild their campaign machine.

    If an autumn election were then to be called, the by-election could be ditched. While the SNP could probably take the seat at a by-election, I very much doubt that they would do so at a general election unless they had previously won a by-election. At a GE this is unlikely to be a priority seat for the SNP.

  10. Lib Dems 3? That is extremely low, why so?

  11. This so reeks of Glasgow East. The only good news for Labour is that the SNP hasn’t got a John Mason in the area.

  12. Christain,

    no but we do have an extremely capable and experience candidate in Grant Thoms.

    He is not only a good candidate but he helped run the Glasgow East campaign to great effect. he’s also very well know and liked throughout the party so he’ll have no trouble getting bodies on the ground from across the country.

    Dean,

    We will do well here and will run Labour close on this, but we might not win…..

    Peter.

  13. This about says it all about Glasgow East will never change whatever the situation.

  14. Peter I wouldnt be too upset if the SNP defeated Labour here! In fact my dream outcome (if all forgive me for a moment) would be an SNP win in the by-election with my Scottsh Cons getting 8%. Thats what I shall be looking out for :)

  15. If it’s a summer by-election, especially in a working-class urban seat, turnout will be apalling and voter ID/postal votes/GOTV disproportionately important. No-one is good at that in Glasgow in normal circumstances so it will be a war of the central machines, disproportionately so even for a by-election.

  16. How long can Brown delay a by-election to suit his and his party’s interests? Is it legal to leave people disenfranchised indefinitely?

  17. I am amazed when I read the poll – 84% of people polled will support Labour or SNP despite all the current scandal surrounding the big parties’ ineptitude and self-serving agendas.

    Maybe I am missing something but, why are the people of Glasgow NE not asking “what is our alternative to these big parties who care for themselves first, their parties second then, if we are lucky, us third?”

    This Labour heartland was in decline when Michael Martin took it over and it is still in decline. They have played on the age-old chestnut that only Labour can properly represent former industrial areas. SNP is now introducing their own mirage that former industrial areas will only ever vote for Labour or SNP. This may have been the case before the lid was blown off the whole expenses fiasco but now?

    There is a large immigrant community in that constituency who are less likely to have tribal loyalties to the big parties. There is also a large constituent of first-time voters who are more likely to be reached by new voices than by the usual big party PR departments and who regard politicians as irrelevant to them.

    This forthcoming by-election will be a tough one for candidates who dont represent Labour or SNP however the people on the streets of Glasgow NE need I am amazed when I read the Sunday Times poll regarding the Glasgow NE by-election – 84% of people polled will support Labour or SNP. The people of this constituency need to know that there is another choice.
    This Labour heartland was in decline when Michael Martin took it over and it is still in decline. They have played on the age-old chestnut that only Labour can properly represent former industrial areas.

    The people of Glasgow NE are currently being told that the only realistic alternative is SNP. The message needs to get into the area that both these parties are rotten to the core and have no-one’s best interests at heart except their own pursuit of power.

    There is a large immigrant community in that constituency who are less likely to have tribal loyalties to the big parties. There is also a large constituent of first-time voters who are more likely to be reached by new media outlets than by the usual big party tactics and who regard politicians as irrelevant to them.

    These are different times in which we are living. The people may be loyal to undeserving causes but they are not stupid. An alternative to these big “dirty politics” parties could do well, especially as turnout may be low.