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	<title>Comments on: Labour drop to third place</title>
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	<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2153</link>
	<description>Independent Survey and Polling News</description>
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		<title>By: Paul H-J</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2153/comment-page-3#comment-582233</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul H-J</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2009 09:56:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2153#comment-582233</guid>
		<description>Alec,

On the PR thing, two points:

Firstly, France only uses PR for the Euros. For all National elections they use a two-round FPTP whereby any seats with no candidate securing 50% in the first round goes into &quot;ballotage&quot; two weeks later. Only candidates securing above a threshold (I forget actual number but it is around 15% of votes) can stand in the second round - though in practice it is often the two top placed candidates. For the presidential election only the two leading candidates progress - which is how the 2002 election produced a shock Chirac-Le Pen run-off.

While a modified version of anglo-saxon simple majority FPTP, it is nonetheless FPTP. What the two-round system does do is allow a wider choice of party and ensure that in all seats the most popular candidate wins. It also moderates the wide swings which can occur under simple FPTP as voters can take stock of the national and local position after the first round.

Secondly, while we can debate the merits of various systems and perhaps even reach a consenus on reform in the not too distant future, there is no way that any change in the electoral system is going to be in place before the next GE.

Even assuming that Brown can get himself organised to introduce a bill and whip it through the Commons, with extensive use of guillotines, it will not pass the Lords. Brown cannot invoke the Parliament Act to push it through because there is less than a year to go. Even then, there is no time for it to be put into effect in practical terms.

Any attempt to even try it will become clear for what it is - a blatant attempt to rig the election to save Labour from disaster - and as such, I doubt even the most passionate PR supporter on the LD benches would support it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alec,</p>
<p>On the PR thing, two points:</p>
<p>Firstly, France only uses PR for the Euros. For all National elections they use a two-round FPTP whereby any seats with no candidate securing 50% in the first round goes into &#8220;ballotage&#8221; two weeks later. Only candidates securing above a threshold (I forget actual number but it is around 15% of votes) can stand in the second round &#8211; though in practice it is often the two top placed candidates. For the presidential election only the two leading candidates progress &#8211; which is how the 2002 election produced a shock Chirac-Le Pen run-off.</p>
<p>While a modified version of anglo-saxon simple majority FPTP, it is nonetheless FPTP. What the two-round system does do is allow a wider choice of party and ensure that in all seats the most popular candidate wins. It also moderates the wide swings which can occur under simple FPTP as voters can take stock of the national and local position after the first round.</p>
<p>Secondly, while we can debate the merits of various systems and perhaps even reach a consenus on reform in the not too distant future, there is no way that any change in the electoral system is going to be in place before the next GE.</p>
<p>Even assuming that Brown can get himself organised to introduce a bill and whip it through the Commons, with extensive use of guillotines, it will not pass the Lords. Brown cannot invoke the Parliament Act to push it through because there is less than a year to go. Even then, there is no time for it to be put into effect in practical terms.</p>
<p>Any attempt to even try it will become clear for what it is &#8211; a blatant attempt to rig the election to save Labour from disaster &#8211; and as such, I doubt even the most passionate PR supporter on the LD benches would support it.</p>
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		<title>By: Alec</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2153/comment-page-3#comment-582217</link>
		<dc:creator>Alec</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2009 07:07:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2153#comment-582217</guid>
		<description>@Promsan - I quite agree. In essence my desire is to see a system that permits much greater varition of opinion to be expressed within Parliament, therefore hopefully encouraging new entrants more easily. Whether this actually happens is up to us, rather than the system, although a well constructed PR system should make it easier to break the current party stanglehold.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Promsan &#8211; I quite agree. In essence my desire is to see a system that permits much greater varition of opinion to be expressed within Parliament, therefore hopefully encouraging new entrants more easily. Whether this actually happens is up to us, rather than the system, although a well constructed PR system should make it easier to break the current party stanglehold.</p>
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		<title>By: Colin</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2153/comment-page-3#comment-582216</link>
		<dc:creator>Colin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2009 06:33:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2153#comment-582216</guid>
		<description>Alec-yes your right.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alec-yes your right.</p>
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		<title>By: Gray</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2153/comment-page-3#comment-582215</link>
		<dc:creator>Gray</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2009 06:30:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2153#comment-582215</guid>
		<description>And, of course, I now find another leak that I think may prove analogous to what I suspect may happen this week: The German Presidential election results got prematurely Twittered out.  I have to say that Twitter is certainly becoming a pain in the arse for anyone trying to sequester anything these days.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And, of course, I now find another leak that I think may prove analogous to what I suspect may happen this week: The German Presidential election results got prematurely Twittered out.  I have to say that Twitter is certainly becoming a pain in the arse for anyone trying to sequester anything these days.</p>
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		<title>By: Gray</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2153/comment-page-3#comment-582214</link>
		<dc:creator>Gray</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2009 06:27:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2153#comment-582214</guid>
		<description>Pete,
It&#039;s the EU rules.  The election takes place over four days (Thursday-Sunday) and they force results to be sat upon.  Now, that&#039;s not saying it&#039;ll always work...for example, if the penalty were simply a 100,000 Euro fine, a network might well find it to their advantage to stroke a check and unapologetically report on the elections; likewise, a leak to a network based outside the EU would be exceedingly hard to prosecute.  I also do seem to recall there being a leak on the Dutch results in 2004, for example.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pete,<br />
It&#8217;s the EU rules.  The election takes place over four days (Thursday-Sunday) and they force results to be sat upon.  Now, that&#8217;s not saying it&#8217;ll always work&#8230;for example, if the penalty were simply a 100,000 Euro fine, a network might well find it to their advantage to stroke a check and unapologetically report on the elections; likewise, a leak to a network based outside the EU would be exceedingly hard to prosecute.  I also do seem to recall there being a leak on the Dutch results in 2004, for example.</p>
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		<title>By: Gray</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2153/comment-page-3#comment-582213</link>
		<dc:creator>Gray</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2009 06:17:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2153#comment-582213</guid>
		<description>Promsan,
There&#039;s also Australia&#039;s IRV, which seems to work reasonably well.  The only problems with that which I see are forcing people to rank large numbers of candidates (particularly in some of the more circus-y by-elections) and the fact that it&#039;s still completely FPTP.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Promsan,<br />
There&#8217;s also Australia&#8217;s IRV, which seems to work reasonably well.  The only problems with that which I see are forcing people to rank large numbers of candidates (particularly in some of the more circus-y by-elections) and the fact that it&#8217;s still completely FPTP.</p>
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		<title>By: Promsan</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2153/comment-page-3#comment-582205</link>
		<dc:creator>Promsan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 May 2009 23:55:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2153#comment-582205</guid>
		<description>whoops! sorry!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>whoops! sorry!</p>
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		<title>By: Promsan</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2153/comment-page-3#comment-582204</link>
		<dc:creator>Promsan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 May 2009 23:54:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2153#comment-582204</guid>
		<description>@Alec

When people say &quot;PR&quot;, I&#039;m not sure how often they really understand what they mean... 
&quot;en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_system&quot;

there are tons of variations on the theme, and I think the point is that the system you implement doesn&#039;t magically alter the culture of a country.
Germany and Italy remain distinctive in their cultural norms, and their PR systems yield different outcomes.
Plugging PR into the UK would likeasmuch yield yet another outcome that reflects our own cultural norms:
&quot;www.worldpolicy.org/projects/globalrights/democracy/maps-pr.html&quot;
...you can&#039;t really generalise about the outcomes of PR being entirely negative; but it isn&#039;t purely the reserve of &quot;free and fair&quot; democracies.

PR is one of those things like Direct Democracy that sound great in theory, but when operating in the wild, they are subject to the vicissitudes of human nature. 

A preferential voting system would probably satisfy most (if not all) of the desires of people who profess an interest in PR. Ireland is about the only model for that, and turnout is respectable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Alec</p>
<p>When people say &#8220;PR&#8221;, I&#8217;m not sure how often they really understand what they mean&#8230;<br />
&#8220;en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_system&#8221;</p>
<p>there are tons of variations on the theme, and I think the point is that the system you implement doesn&#8217;t magically alter the culture of a country.<br />
Germany and Italy remain distinctive in their cultural norms, and their PR systems yield different outcomes.<br />
Plugging PR into the UK would likeasmuch yield yet another outcome that reflects our own cultural norms:<br />
&#8220;www.worldpolicy.org/projects/globalrights/democracy/maps-pr.html&#8221;<br />
&#8230;you can&#8217;t really generalise about the outcomes of PR being entirely negative; but it isn&#8217;t purely the reserve of &#8220;free and fair&#8221; democracies.</p>
<p>PR is one of those things like Direct Democracy that sound great in theory, but when operating in the wild, they are subject to the vicissitudes of human nature. </p>
<p>A preferential voting system would probably satisfy most (if not all) of the desires of people who profess an interest in PR. Ireland is about the only model for that, and turnout is respectable.</p>
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		<title>By: Promsan</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2153/comment-page-3#comment-582203</link>
		<dc:creator>Promsan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 May 2009 23:53:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2153#comment-582203</guid>
		<description>@Alec

When people say &quot;PR&quot;, I&#039;m not sure how often they really understand what they mean... 
&quot;en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_system&quot;

there are tons of variations on the theme, and I think the point is that the system you implement doesn&#039;t magically alter the culture of a country.
Germany and Italy remain distinctive in their cultural norms, and their PR systems yield different outcomes.
Plugging PR into the UK would likeasmuch yield yet another outcome that reflects our own cultural norms:
&quot;www.worldpolicy.org/projects/globalrights/democracy/maps-pr.html&quot;
...you can&#039;t generalise.

PR is one of those things like Direct Democracy that sound great in theory, but when operating in the wild, they are subject to the vicissitudes of human nature. 

A preferential voting system would probably satisfy most (if not all) of the desires of people who profess an interest in PR. Ireland is about the only model for that, and turnout is respectable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Alec</p>
<p>When people say &#8220;PR&#8221;, I&#8217;m not sure how often they really understand what they mean&#8230;<br />
&#8220;en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_system&#8221;</p>
<p>there are tons of variations on the theme, and I think the point is that the system you implement doesn&#8217;t magically alter the culture of a country.<br />
Germany and Italy remain distinctive in their cultural norms, and their PR systems yield different outcomes.<br />
Plugging PR into the UK would likeasmuch yield yet another outcome that reflects our own cultural norms:<br />
&#8220;www.worldpolicy.org/projects/globalrights/democracy/maps-pr.html&#8221;<br />
&#8230;you can&#8217;t generalise.</p>
<p>PR is one of those things like Direct Democracy that sound great in theory, but when operating in the wild, they are subject to the vicissitudes of human nature. </p>
<p>A preferential voting system would probably satisfy most (if not all) of the desires of people who profess an interest in PR. Ireland is about the only model for that, and turnout is respectable.</p>
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		<title>By: Cogload</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2153/comment-page-3#comment-582189</link>
		<dc:creator>Cogload</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 May 2009 22:16:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2153#comment-582189</guid>
		<description>There looks like a poll on the front page of tomorrow&#039;s Telegraph....or am I imagining things......?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There looks like a poll on the front page of tomorrow&#8217;s Telegraph&#8230;.or am I imagining things&#8230;&#8230;?</p>
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