Labour drop to third place
I’ve been speculating about it for a couple of months, but in the Sunday Telegraph tomorrow we finally see a poll (as suspected from ICM, who tend to give the Liberal Democrats their highest levels of support) putting Labout in third place. The topline figures, with changes from ICM’s last poll, of CON 40%(+1), LAB 22%(-6), LDEM 25%(+5). The Lib Dems caught Labour as recently as 2003, after the Brent East by-election, but as far I can see one has to go back to 1987 to find them ahead of Labour.
The Lib Dem score contrasts wildly with Populus’s yesterday – the two companies use very similar methodology. Populus’s fieldwork is conducted by ICM, their weighting figures are very close, they carry out almost the same re-allocation of don’t knows by past vote, the fieldwork dates for the two polls were the same. Possible differing approaches to polling the European election shouldn’t make a difference, since Westminster voting intentions were asked first. There is a slight difference in the question that is asked, but my guess is that most of the difference between these polls must be down to sample error.
ICM also asked about European voting intention. Topline figures, with changes from ICM’s last poll a week ago, are CON 29%(-1), LAB 17%(-7), LDEM 20%(+2), UKIP 10%(nc), Green 11%(+1), BNP 5%(+4). Again, we have a sharp contrast with Populus, who put UKIP second and the Lib Dems fourth. Mike Smithson is speculating that the difference might be down to ICM not prompting using the names of the minor parties, that would explain the difference in UKIP support – but ICM and Populus are showing broadly similar Green and BNP support. I guess we’ll have to wait for the tables to see.
UPDATE: Darrell in my comments has looked through past polls more carefully than I – there was a single poll in 2004 that had Labour in third place too.
Filed under: ICM, Voting Intention
Anthony
What does this do to the Moving Average?
This is entirely unbelievable, but not unforseen.
Liberal Democrats on 25%? Even with a margin of error of 3% that still leaves them neck and neck with Labour. My, my- Asquith and Lloyd George will be rising from the dead in glee if this poll is found to be more accurate than not!
Sorry Anthony, Seen it. Thanks.
I think it is a bit of a rogue – but the timing is terrible for Gordon
Am I right in thinking that even in the last years of the Major government the Conservatives never fell to third place in a poll of Westminster voting intentions?
Coming from ICM (who are usually quite cautious, I think?) this is staggering stuff!
The governent need to listen to us, call an election. Labour have no mandate to govern any more
Sally C I think this poll may over state Liberal level of support, but in regards to Labour, I’d hazard a bet that its quite accurate; it seems consistant with the majority of recent polling outcomes for the level of labour support (down to 22-25% range in Westminster intentions)
The Conservatives have held up thanks purely to David Cameron I think.
How long will it be until Labour fall into the teens?
10 point difference down to sampling error – I shall have to get out my Normal distributions tables !
Could the difference be explained by different filters for likelihood to vote?
Wow, i’m kind of pleased and upset at the same time. My family were always loyal Labour supports, up until the last election really, so i’m a bit sad to see Labour in so much trouble, but i suppose they derserve it in many ways. But i’m also pleased because the Lib Dems are by far my favorite party, at least out of the big 3.
I think Labour are going to get even lower on Thursday than the polls suggest, i think around 15% or maybe even lower. Then Brown will call an election next week for early-mid July. I also think the latest EU poll is overstating the Lib Dem’s numbers.
This seems to be a little bit out in terms of the Libdem vote, and I suspect their real support is actually not above 22%, however the psychological impact of this will be large. I wonder will the BBC think this sufficiently groundbreaking to mention? They should, but given that they support Labour (a fact which I have made many formal complaints to them about, with supporting evidence, and not received replies, despite requesting them) I don’t think they will.
Will this have an effect on the Conservative vote if the Libdems begin to be seen as plausible?
Lol, M, don’t be naughty. I would dearly love to see his take on it though.
I’m starting to disbelieve these low Labour polls somewhat, as from a purely subjective point of view I’ve met so many people who are are ‘always Labour, always will be’ core voters. Have so many of them reneged on their lifelong views?
Maybe what these polls reflect is that these people are planning to stay at home. Because I just can’t see these voters switching to the Conservatives. Maybe some have decided that going Liberal isn’t such a betrayal at the moment.
But I still think they will come back when the general election is called; and I bet the Labour campaign will focus on fear of the Tories to get them all out.
The rise in the Liberal vote is something i expected to happen. The reason is Nick Clegg is doing very well and like David Cameron has made himself very available to the media.
The Labour Party on the other hand have real problems and Harriett Harman seems to be doing a lot of work which the leader should normally be doing.For example the BBC News channel have been interviewing party leaders this week, Cameron , Clegg and Harman !.
Is gordon hiding ?
Despite the perceptions of some regular contributors, David Cameron does seem to have played a blinder, as all the ingredients (moats, tennis courts, servants quarters and the rest) for Tory Toff knocking were there for the using, but Labour seems not to have put a glove on them. Looking at the perceptions of who has been hurt, Cameron isn’t much ahead of Clegg, which he must regard with satisfaction. We shall have to see if GB can make up any lost ground, but to turn this round in eleven months?
The article acompanying this poll is already on the telegraph online, and interestingly it is a really good time for it to have come out for D.C – not least because also tomorrow two party grandees (and former cabinet ministers) have come out criticising D.C’s european policy, it might have been really damaging for the tories (infighting over europe again etc) had the story not in all likelyhood become buried in tomorrows headlines.
Oh, and Chris Newey would I am sure have his usual effervecient take on everything (explaining how it will all work out in the end…I am currently thinking of the bunker…lol)
I think I said there was a chance of this happening when the previous poll came out, but I’m surprised by how high the LDs are. I suppose it’s the public sector vote transferring from Labour to LD; most of them still don’t consider voting Tory because they think their jobs might come under attack.
I think Labour really will win less than 20% of the vote in the Euro elections. The problem for them is that there really is no reason for anyone to vote for them. Any genuine friend of the Labour party would not want to send a message that everything’s going well at the moment, which is what a Labour vote would be saying.
@Richard – Gordon is always hiding. His nickname is Macavity after all.
@Neil – Cameron would be bonkers not to privatise the BBC when they get in. Having a publically funded mouthpiece for the Labour party is crazy.
Malcolm Hewson – ICM and Populus do deal with turnout slightly differently (Populus weight by it, ICM filter out those less than 7/10 likely to vote), but in practice the effect of the two different filters is almost identical. It’s certainly not feasible to think it could make that much difference.
Richard B – the Conservatives did fall to 3rd place behind the Lib Dems several times during 1993.
One question. Is the Conservative lead not technically 15 now?
I don’t think the Conservative supporters need to say a lot. Poll says it all really.
The comments on the polls (those that have actually stuck to them) have tended to concentrate on the rise in support for the LDs. What I think is more incredible is that the Tories seem to have been left largely undamaged by the whole expenses scandal. Can this really be true?? The media coverage would appear to suggest that some of the worst greediness has come from the Tory side (moat cleaning, duck houses etc) and that given the relative small numbers of Tories to Labour, the Tories comparatively seem worse…………….
Maybe it is that David Cameron is ruthlessly culling his grandees. Getting rid of so much dead wood will axctually make the Tories even more electable than they are now. Contrast his performance with that poor old no hoper Brown. Labour has more power over their constituency Associations than the Tories but he seems totally incapable of acting.
It is also bizarre that in the face of consistently horrendous polls, senior Labour politicians have not dispatched Brown. Maybe they were hoping that Thursday’s election could provide a glimour of hope or else the definitive launch pad for rebellion.
My prediction is that post Thursday, Brown will pre-empt them and do something extraordinary with his cabinet. Set piece plotting is his forte and I suspect he will further dilute his Labour Government by trying to get the LIb Dems on board in some way. An anti Tory coalition might just work in elctoral terms but it would be a further disaster for democracy……………..we need change.
I suspect when the expenses furore is a distant memory that the Tories will squeeze a few more percent from swing voters, mainly from the LibDem share.
I can’t believe 60% of voters view themselves as ‘left wing’ which, lets be honest, is what almost all the other main parties represent in some form.
The next general election will see Cons at 45% plus I’m certain.
I think this poll is a more more accurate reflection of what is going on at the moment. Nick Clegg has had some very good media coverage over the past few weeks and I think that is helping the Lib Dems.
It is quite interesting that the Greens are ahead of UKIP in the European poll. If this turns out to be accurate the Greens are heading for a very good result next week.
I suspect 4th June will be an absolute disaster for Gordon Brown, but I reckon he will manage to hang on until the general election. Whether he goes for PR before then to prevent a Conservative majority remains to be seen.
ICM polls usually show the Lib Dems highest – it seems likely this is due to an element weighting back to past vote in 2005.
I’m a little surprised the Conservatives don’t seem to have been hit harder actually (although we will pour through the results next weekend). Nevertheless, quite a lot of people seem to think David Cameron has responded better.
Or maybe these kinds of plague on all your houses things tend to hit whoever is behind worse.
The Lib Dems have had cases aswell.
Talking to non political anoraks about this, there is a great deal of cynicism and it’s very hard to predict what will happen in the immediate period ahead.
But I think quite a lot of people are fairly measured.
29 September 2004; Populus had Labour in thrid place on 28% compared to the Lib Dems on 29% and Conservatives on 32%.
Any scottish breakdown?
@ SilHillian
Right now a disaster would be a thumbs up to them because at the moment Labour is heading for a trainwreck of carnage and bloodshed.
Hardpressedtqy: If the electorate are determined to be rid of Gordon Brown it would not be a wise move by Nick Clegg to be seen supporting the government and its current agenda.
Lib Dems might be viewed by the voters as writing a very public political suicide note.
@Hardpressedtqy
Well there has just been a Downing street leak that Brown is considering making Balls chancellor! Moving Darling to the Home Office.
If true, Brown must have completely lost the plot. Balls is a thoroughly disliked figure by his own side and comes across badly in the media as well.
It could be abit of a rogue, we will have to wait and see if comres and yougov yeild similar results.
P.s. sorry to post 3 time now
we will have to wait and see if comres and yougovyield similar results, only then will we know the accuracy of this poll.
P.s. sorry to post 3 times now.
Great to see such positivity for the Lib Dems. However, I am not sure whether to take this too literally. Some polls have shown the Lib Dems as low as 14% so its hard to know which polls are the most accurate.
My new prediction (Euro):
Cons – 28%
Labour – 19%
Lib Dems – 18%
UKIP – 13%
Greens – 9%
BNP – 7%
Well one of the two polls is a bit out. I suspect the truth is in the middle. I wonder if the local elections are influencing people ? The Lib Dems have a reasonably strong local government base and people may be carrying over that support, esp where the Lib Dems are campaigning on a strong local record. “Pavement politics” is probably the best antidote to “snouts in the trough”.
Labour seem to get the blame even when it is tories who take the expenses.
Most of this week has been dominated by Bill Cash, Kirkbride, mackay (a close adviser to the Tory leader), and the duck house guy, yet labour fall to a record low, and the Tories go up.
The expenses scandal ONLY hurts labour in any serious way. That is odd.
Is it because corruption is always blamed on the government even when the culprits are form all over.
Maybe when labour are in opposition they should fiddle the system, and perversely boost their own ratings as a result.
You could argue that keeping the expenses scandal in the paper Kirkbride and Mackay have actually helped the tories, that might cheer them up as they have had a bad few weeks themselves.
Anthony,
I have written a comparison with the last time Labour was third in 2004 on my blog because I think there is a potentially big story there to be blunt. I think those people that are saying that the LD figure is the suspect one have hit the nail on the head….
@Silhillian
“Whether he goes for PR before then to prevent a Conservative majority remains to be seen.”
I don’t think a government could do that without it being in their manifesto, or without a referendum.
Someone please tell me I’m correct!!
David Cameron certainly took a risk by taking a very hard line with his own MPs, the people he has to rub shoulders with most days of the week and including some personal friends, but polls like this completely justify the stance he’s taken.
In the 1948 US Election, Harry Truman was down in double digits in the polls right up until election day i think aganist Thomas Dewey, and was predicted to lose in the Electoral College by about 400 to 100. He came back and won the popular vote by something like 5% and won in the Electoral College by 301-191.
In the 1970 UK General Election, Labour were ahead by 5-10 points in the exit polls, and were predicted to get a 50-100 majority and lost by 3% and around a 30 majority to the Tories.
In the 2004 US Election, John Kerry was 3 or 4% up in a lot of the exit polls, and Zogby predicted a 311 to 213 win for him in the Electoral College, and almost all other polling organizations predicted him to win too, and he lost by 2.4% and 286-252 in the Electoral College to George W. Bush.
Could the same thing happen on Thursday and at the next General Election?
Any form of PR would need new boundaries to operate from, which would have to be decided by the boundary commissions. Unless there is some form of PR which I don’t know about, which operates with single member constituencies.
I said last night I was shocked by the low level of LD support. This poll is much closer to what I would have thought was the case. Potentially also very, very good for the Greens. Beating UKIP in an unprompted poll suggests some significant movement. As some others have suggested, I would think many pro Labour voters have given up in despair and opted for Greens, but its a sign that politics can eventually change.
Not overly surprised about the Tory rating – as I’ve said before, people want Labour out, and a stuffed monkey would probably do the job, which is just as well…
If Brown had any loyalty to the party that has been remarkbly loyal to him, he would position himself as the problem, shoulder as much blame as humanly possibly, and stand down. He won’t, as politicians seem to be incapable of looking beyond their own egos. Labour are paying the price of power without principle. Cameron’s turn next, although it won’t last as long.
Neil – the AV system uses (potentially) the same constituencies plus a top up list vote.
Steve Cooper – a Government can do anything if it wins a vote in the Commons and has sufficient time to use the Parliament Act if the Lords object. All that’s left is for Queenie to sign the deal, and that hasn’t been refused since I think 1704.
Lib Dems Push Labour to Drop to 3rd Place…
I wanted to share with you a Liberal Democrat Bar Chart I have designed to represent the latest ICM poll, clearly showing that it is a 2-horse race between the Liberal Democrats and the Conserva……
It this poll is repeated on 4th June, how long will Gordon Brown last?
The question is: will Brown try and carry on even if he comes 4th or 5th with 15% of the vote? The papers will be constantly hounding him to go if that’s the result.
Speechless but don’t want Colin to think I am hiding.
GB won’t go – expect day of long knives re-shuffle aftew Euro poll.
The 2 polls showing Lib Dems firstly on 15% and then on 25% confirms, I think, what I said regarding being uneasy about having complete confidence in the polls in the present situation. Nevertheless, whether this poll is accurate in respect to the Lib Dems, I expect this will help them.
The next few polls and the Euro election will be a test to see how much of a boost to the Lib Dems this poll has been to them.
In my last comment I said I did not expect the Euro election to have any impact on the General Election. I may have been wrong. IF the Lib Dems do come in second in the Euro Election then the likehood of them coming second in the General Election must be greater. After that, watch out Tories
The fact that the Lib Dems also polled second in the Euro poll is definiately encouraging.
Also I said that we should probably subtract 3 from the score for Labour given by ICM due to reasons explained several days ago. This suggests that we could see Labour soon on 19% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
However, A WORD OF CAUTION, I think we should wait until the beginning of July when hopefully things have calmed down a bit to assess what kind of permenant pattern in the polls we might see.
I have done some canvassing and my party has been damaged, but I couldn’t quantify how permanent that is or whether it’s a lot.
I think most people do realise it’s not all politicians.
I really don’t understand this polling. Can someone help me guys?
I am new to this, and as I only just turned 18 will be casting my first vote on Thursday.
In 24 hours, it seems in the Euro poll, Ukip has dropped from a high second to a very low 4th.
I just don’t get it? Why has Ukip lost 9 points in the Euro election since last night?
Seing as this has become a partisan forum in many cases I’m finding it hard to resist
While I am overjoyed Labour are slipping into 3rd place I am dismayed they have got 22 instead of 21 or less
I am hopeful they will fall into the teens at real elections – let’s remember polls ALWAYS overestimate their strength
@ Maxking – sampling error, the mathematics, when the poll was taken….there are various factors. Congratulations on casting your first vote – it is a moment of great satisfaction – but do so on your convictions not on the polling.
And, in opposition to a few on here I would regard no vote as “wasted”. Even if you vote for a hard left, or a hard right party or one which is totally opposed to my views and I find abhorrent – you have voted and made your feelings clear. Better that than sitting on ones backside and moaning.
Paul McLennan asks; “Any Scottish breakdown?”.
Well Paul, there have certainly been rumours!
@Cogload
Don’t worry, no matter what I eventually decide, the BNP will never get my vote.
I have a Black Aunt, (my nan adopted her when she was 2) so no matter how bad the situation gets, or how well the BNP present themselves, I will never vote for them. Also, I am in no way homosexual, but I do support equal rights for the Gay people of this country, which are another group the BNP show hate towards.
At the moment, I’ve narrowed it down to a possible 3, either Conservatives, Greens (despite being upset about not getting a single leaflet) or Ukip.
I get upset with people calling Ukip racist. The same Aunt I mentioned a few lines above, is voting for them now, and voted for them in 2004 Euros, 2005 GE, 2008 London Mayor and Assembly. She has supported them in 3 maybe 4 elections and as she is black and Ukip has candidates of mixed races, I find it impossible to see why the are called racists.
They say they oppose UNLIMITED immigration, that doesn’t mean they oppose immigration, or don’t like immigrants, it just means that they along with parties such as Conservatives, think that it is a bit crazy that the whole of Europe could move and live in the UK despite us being such a small Island.
Imagine 500 million people living in the UK (exagerated I know, but that is what the EU allows at the moment) any one of these 500 million can come and live on our relatively small island.
Yeah…what we have here is a wacky sampling situation. It’s very possible that we’ll have at least one more poll, possibly several (which should sort this out a bit more). I honestly think both polls are off (15% for the LDs seems as unlikely as 25% IMHO; 18-20% makes sense to me right about now, but a spike is possible); one is a rogue and the other is sampling error.
What’s more important in some ways is whether this will have a psychological effect on voters, coming as close as it is to a round of elections (and not being a side-effect of post by-election upset polling, this one is slightly harder to write off in some sense). Basically, I’m wondering if this poll could influence the next few polls to Labour’s detriment.
- Paul (BrownOutIn2010) – “let’s remember polls ALWAYS overestimate their strength”
Correct.
Mike Smithson over at PoliticalBetting.com even has a rule about this: the poll which shows Labour in the worst position is the most accurate poll.
- Paul McLennan – “Any Scottish breakdown?”
No.
But ICM are a member of the British Polling Council, and abide by their disclosure rules. Therefore we ought to have detailed findings available at their website within a couple of days.
However, to keep you occupied in the meantime, here is the Scottish split (usual caveats apply) from the recent Populus poll:
Populus/ITV
Westminster voting intention – Scotland
Fieldwork: 19-20 May
Sample size: 88
(+/- change from UK GE 2005)
SNP 40% (+22)
Lab 28% (-11)
Con 20% (+4)
LD 10% (-13)
UKIP 2% (+2)
If you enter those number into the Electoral Calculus seat calculator, you get:
SNP 41 seats (+35)
Lab 9 seats (-31)
Con 5 seats (+4)
LD 4 seats (-7)
Speaker 0 seats (-1)
@ DirtyEuro – it’s not that odd that Labour is being hit harder than the Tories. Labour is the government and has been for 11 years so any corruption in the system – regardless of party – is ultimately the government’s responsibility. Add to that the fact that Brown was already widely disliked and mistrusted anyway, and has responded to the expenses scandal in his usual ponderous, tin-eared way while Cameron has come across as clear and proactive from the outset. Also, the purging of the worst Tory miscreants fits into a reformist Tory narrative – Cameron versus the squirearchy – which makes Cameron more popular even as certain Tory MPs are discredited. Then there are people’s expectations – Labour is perceived as the party of high taxation and supposedly dedicated to principled redistribution of wealth which, inevitably, makes it look very hypocritical indeed when the public discovers that some of the “redistribution” has been from the public to the personal fortunes of various Labour MPs.
But I think the main explanation is simply that Brown was already very unpopular before this story broke and his poor handling of it has served to reinforce the general perception that he’s useless and out of touch. Cameron, in contrast, has really looked like a Prime Minister for the first time.
Since it has come up, there is one thing I think is pretty safe to say: A universal swing is completely and hopelessly useless at this point. The “other” vote is so far off the charts right now that I honestly wonder if UKIP wouldn’t manage a seat or two on 8% (after all, the Libs managed a few seats on 2-3% in the 50s; granted, they didn’t fight every seat, but regionally UKIP is probably edging into double-digit territory in parts of England if the 8% number I saw somewhere on here on them is accurate. Put simply, we’re not in Kansas anymore if this keeps up, as this swing is probably the biggest percentage swing in history. Of course it can (and likely will) change, but it’s still so far out there I can’t even believe some of what I’m seeing.
Tony, I’ve gotta ask: How many seats would Labour on 20% give less than 0 votes to on a uniform swing? And for that matter, any idea how many lost deposits we’d be theoretically looking at on that?
Weighted Moving Average 40:24:20 though due to rounding the WMA CLead is now 17. And the Lab:LibDem gap is down to 4, from 10 a month ago. Another month or two like this and Labour will be regularly behind the LibDems.
I think Brown will resign next week if he gets a hammering on Thursday.
“I think Brown will resign next week if he gets a hammering on Thursday.”
Wishful thinking Bobby Brown has wanted this job since before he had teeth he will not give it up off his own back.
I see on labur home they are pushing for alan johnstone to takeover and they seem to think that will solve all there problems i think if they stab Brown in the front the party would tear itself apart very publicly
Sad as it is Labour are better off with Brown just as the tories were better off with Major in 1996
Labour will recover to 30%come the next election
Running a batch of results on Electoral Calculus, I threw the following into the system:
General pattern: 40-22-21 Con-Lab-Lib
Modified Scotland to 40-27-20-12 SNP-Lab-Con-Lib
Shaved one point off Labour’s total in Wales and gave it to PC
The result was Labour losing 97 deposits and getting knocked down to 143 seats while the Libs hold 49 seats and the Nationalists 45. Basically, you have Labour holding central London, the upper parts of Wales, a batch in Birmingham (narrowly), a few in the industrial areas of Scotland, and a decent pile of seats in Northern England. Other than that, it’s a sea of blue…and I think this is about as close as I can come what you’d probably get at a GE right now (though what to do with the gobs and gobs of “minor” and “other” votes I know not).
Neil and Alex,
It is mathematically impossible for a system of PR not to involve constituencies within more than one member per constituency.
AV is not proportional, it results are often more disproportionate than First Past the Post.
Others,
My impression from the doorstep is that UKIP are doing – better than 10% – IN SOME PLACES. Both sets of polling numbers are plausible for them.
@ onthejob
I very much doubt Labour will recover to 30%, i’d give them 25, 27 at most (to be optimistic), and thats if their soft vote returns, giving them 30% for next election is overly optimistic.
But Labour would still have three and a half times as many seats as LD.
Would the apparent unfairness of this result plus the chance to really put the screws to Labour be enough for a Tory government to support proportional representation? Or would the Tories stick to their current plan of reducing the number of MPs?
I think if the Lib Dems get a significant percentage high than Labour there could be a call for reform, if the tory’s do decrease the number of MP’s the Lib Dems couldnt complain as its apart of their plan aswell.
Im looking forward to seeng the next poll to determine if this one is a slight error.
Like Anthony I wouldn’t rule out sample eror for this.
This poll has the LibDems five points and three above anything they have achieved for a long time. They may well be up but this is still a big jump.
The most obvious explaination for this s a collapse in Support for Labour. When it looked like a close election the LibDems get squeezed, but when it’s looking like a walk over the third party gains.
We always get talk of a radical realignment but in true we seem to have two types of elections;
A tight race for first with a distant third, or a run away winner and a battle for second and third a fair way back.
The Libdems may be saved the electoral disaster that a tight race might have created but they aren’t about to break the mould of british politics.
The SNP seem to be getting the same benefit as the LibDems and for the same reason. People haven’t turned to the SNP and Indpendence, they have turned away from Labour. In Scotland the SNP have been the beneficiary, not just in terms of picking up Labour votes but also in growing in stature as an alternative to the LIbDems for those who don’t vote for Labour or Tory.
The odd effect of this is that with Labour this low the SNP as the second party in Scotland is remarkably near that tipping point we see at Westminster where a few percentage points of a change brings an avalanche of seats.
I am not going to make any election predictions on these figures and as most here know If always put the SNP figure closer to ten seats that Alex’s prediction of twenty, but if we id see an early election I really don’t know what would happen in Scotland.
For as long as I can remember (which in political terms is three decades) the three Unionist parties in scotland have always said;
“If the SNP wants Independence all it needs to do is win a majority of Scottish seats at Westminster”.
A majority of Scottish seats is thirty, on these figures that is achieveable, not because of the strength of the SNP, but the weaknesses of Gordon Brown and FPTP.
Peter.
Considerable head scratching has gone on here as regards the lack of impact of the expenses scandal on the Tory polling figures. After all, they seem to have been a deep in the second homes allowance mire as Labour. And yet they haven’t suffered.
A closer look att the data might suggest that the polling impact has been rather less radical than some of the contributors to this site are implying. If we take the four polls that have ended within the last two weeks the Conservative mean rating has in fact fallen when compared with the mean for April. Only 3% admittedly, but a fall nonetheless. Moreover, the same four polls also only show a 3% drop for Labour from April to late May although two of these polls seem unbelievably and suspiciously kind on them. Meanwhile, the Lib Dem poll rating has risen by 1%.
However, to a considerable extent we should expect similar movements in any case given that there is a Euro poll next week. From May to June 2004 the Tory poll rating also fell by 3% as some of its voters were tempted away to the even more Euro-sceptic UKIP. What’s happened this time is that the expenses furore seems to have triggered this move – which in 2004 was to an extent a post-facto result of the Euros – a few weeks earlier than then.
In this respect a large rise in the mean poll rating for the others is hardly novel. That also occured in 2004 (of 5% from May to June on top of a 1% rise from April to May). This time around we have an earlier 6% rise but from a base that was already a point or two higher.
A lot of caution is required when interpreting recent polls. Maybe there will be little further change in June which will leave us with hardly any electoral impact from the expenses issue. Or it could be that June sees shifts on the lines of 2004 on top of the poll movements this month. Whichever happens I suggest we wait to see what the polls look like after the summer if we want to predict the outcome of a GE in May/June next year. In Sept/Oct 2004 the polls were very close to the actual result in May 2005.
Having been knocking on doors for the last few weeks, I can only add that I wonder how many dont knows are influencing the statistics. ..Every other house I have called at are very disillusioned by the whole Westminster political elite and seem determined to punish them.
I am struggling to find anyone who supports Labour, or perhaps it should be will admit to supporting labour, equally, David camerons comments, pre scandal about the Conservatives being just like you, seem to have had a serious impact on the local county division where we dont have moats, duck ponds and swimming pools in the gardens.
The one great comment tho is we know when our mortgages are finished……….. That is the true baddie and confined to labour.
Bring on PR
Chris
Thanks Stuar Dickson for that Populus/ITV
But it supports what I’ve long been saying, there seems to be a very quite but visible and detectable move back towards the Scottish Conservatives up here, clearly they are in the region of 20-23%, thats just short of 1992 levels of support. A recovery in Scotland for the tories might well helpavoid th whole ‘democratic deficit’ argument.
Just been reported that Brown has categorically stated that he will not resign if ministers ask him to after Thursday. Apparently he’s “busy every day running the economy” [into the ground].
His statement may boost Labour’s chances of getting kicked to death on Thursday.
@Max King – if your first vote might go to either the Tories or the Greens you really should do more reading. They’re really not that similar you know.
@James Ludlow – agree with everything in your last post – sums up the situation very well
@Malcolm Hewson – you’re quite right about AV not being proprtional as such (although the oft touted list system that gets bolted on to the AV proposals would be). I only mentioned it as this is what is being talked of at present.
An interesting idea would be to imagine what polls would like like if we had full PR. My guess would be greater LD support and more for others, perhaps less for Conservative? The imperitive to vote Tory to defeat Labour would be less, but would this alter voting intentions?
I know others have criticised PR as leading to deals in ’smoke filled rooms’. Apart from the fact that this would be illegal now thanks to the smoking ban (one of three achievements of the Labour government we really should all applaud) it’s an argument I don’t agree with. Policy is already decided behind closed doors – all three main parties are unholy alliances between widely differing political viewpoints (Ken Clarke and John Redwood, Stephen Byers and Tony Benn etc). The difference is that with PR you can see who is negototiating and who they represent and contrary to the smoked filled rooms line PR is actualy much more transparent than the current system, especially if the big parties fracture into more unified political groupings. It also allows a much greater range of views to be represented as every vote becomes important, not just 200,000 swing voters in 100 marginal seats. And besides – why be frightened of PR if it represents what the country really thinks? As with the expenses scandal the problem we have had for decades is a ruling elite that wants to decide what’s best for us – PR upsets their calculations, and for that reason alone we should support it.
James – I meant your last post but one.
I feel that this apparent large change in the polls isn’t realistic. Most of the time while Clegg has been in charge the LibDems have struggled to advance more than 1 or 2 points in a poll. What did he/they do to become much more popular? Is it really just a protest vote in the Euro elections spilling over into the GE polling? (could be)
Anyway, it’s not that the current government deserves to be doing badly in all polling at the moment, just suddenly a lot more badly? not sure about that.
@ James Ludlow
I just read about this on AOL’s homepage. The last glimmer of hope for Labour it seems to me has now died. Labour will lose about half their seats at the General Election.
I think Brown may well go down in infamy as the man who destroyed Labour, as a party with the power to govern.
It’s such a pity. Both Old and New Labour had something important to say that added to and enriched politics in Britain. But now people are increasingly seeing Labour as dominated by the Brown Band whose medieval morals have nothing to say to a modern Britain.
This Labour government does not deserve the title Labour. But on the positive side I think that a large minority of Labour MPs are still motivated by Labour values. And I am hopeful that though Labour will be drastically reduced in quantity they will again have something to offer in terms of quality.
I think it will be far worse for labour, i predict they could loose upto (if they keep up what they are doing now)200-225 seats, i.e. complete train wreck for them.
“why be frightened of PR if it represents what the country really thinks?”
Why be frightened?………Italy.
The country really thinks…..Does the “country” think in terms of coalitions?-I don’t think so. It thinks things like-”Lets get rid of this lot” and “Lets try that lot”-and it tries -where possible-to marry those thoughts with the desire for a good constituency MP to represent their particular area.
@ PhilipJW – “I think Brown may well go down in infamy as the man who destroyed Labour, as a party with the power to govern.”
Yes, I think you’re right and I agree that it’s very sad. I intend voting Tory this time around but I’m of the opinion that, whichever party is in power, British government always works best when there is a healthy opposition.
Philip JW – agree with your sentiments. However I think it’s important to appreciate that ‘Labour’ values will outlast the party, even if the party disappears, which I seriously doubt. Remember that in the very recent past some people thought the Conservatives were effectively finished. Truth be told, Blair and Brown, with some notable policy exceptions, have largely ignored Labour’s traditional values, and that’s one reason we are in such a mess now.
Colin – with respect, it’s very silly to base any electoral system on a single example. Why didn’t you choose Germany or France or one of the many countries that have successful PR systems? How about Scotland or Wales? I also don’t agree with your last comment re constituency MPs – most voters couldn’t name or give a fig about their local MP – its the party label that matters. The country doesn’t think collectively – we all think as individuals, but FPTP only represents a few swing voters in certain areas who can’t make their minds up.
In my view, PR is probably better suited to a system where the executive is independent from the legislature, but that’s another kettle of fish altogether.
Bring back Old Labour. A Labour that weren’t afraid to be the voice for that Socialist, left-wing side of Britain. Its a shame if they slowly burn out, but if the Lib Dems can transform into true contenders with the policies to lead Britain then it can only be a good thing.
@ Colin – Italy uses a complex electoral system that is far from proportional, for example at the last election Berlusconi’s coalition won a significant majority of seats in both legislative houses without getting 50% of the votes for either.
Alec:-
Germany-yes that seems to produce stable government.
France has a Presidential system & a Bureaucracy of Labyrinthine proportions. I hope we never look like France-though in many ways we have become so.
Wales-I,m not sure that a Devolved Administration like this is a basis for comparison with UK as a whole-particularly as the last Opinion Poll on the matter in Wales showed a 50/50 split on the devolution question there.
Scotland-Again , unless & until Scotland becomes an independent nation I don’t agree that this model is a valid benchmark for UK as a whole.
I note that a Scottish Parliament Election Study ( 1999) & a Scottish Social Attitudes Survey ( 2003) showed ,in respect of 6 questions about the PR voting system & ballot paper, that only 45% & 39% of respondents respectively , gave the correct answer.
If that is a measure of PR’s success in engaging & educating the voter, I’m glad we don’t have it.
“most voters couldn’t name or give a fig about their local MP ”
mmmm-that’s a pretty sweeping statement & I don’t see any evidence for it-indeed the reverse is the case at present.
At least voters can get rid of an individual consituency MP they no longer trust-they can’t do that for one of their “regional” MEPs.
I know its not relevent to the thread headline but is there any TV coverage on the elections on Thursday night. BBC got the usual Question Time and This week and then ‘normal’ programmes. Nothing on ITV either. Will the News Channel Sky? have anything? I know alot of counting is going on Friday during the day and during the weekend to coincide with the voting in Europe. Any ideas??
At the heart of Labour’s core values is the drive to prevent the exploitation that potentially comes with capitalism.
The cause of this deep recession is twofold:
Firstly, it is due to the failure of governments to prevent this wreckless, greedy exploitation by bankers and investors.
Secondly, it is due governments squandering people’s taxes.
This so-called Labour government demonstrated the worst excesses that both Tory and Old Labour were vunerable to doing.
@ Alec – “Why didn’t you choose Germany or France or one of the many countries that have successful PR systems?”
The Italy example is a good one, though – it demonstrates that PR does not, in itself, automatically end corruption and that it can lead to all sorts of problems (weak coalitions, rapid switches of power between different parties etc). There might well be benefits for us in moving to a PR system but it would be silly to ignore the pitfalls or to pretend that it will miraculously produce better politicians and better government.
Alec-if voter turnout is any indicator of the “success” of the PR electoral systems you chose-these are the latest :-
EU Parliament 2004:-
Germany 43%
France 43%
UK 38%
Scottish Parliament 2007 52%
Welsh Assembly 2007 44%
By comparison :-
UK Parliament 2005 58%
Richard – regarding Bassetlaw, no. The figures released were only for each group of seats, not for individual seats.
Adrian – no, there isn’t. There are only about three councils counting on Thursday night, so all the coverage will be Friday morning/lunchtime for the locals, and Sunday for the Euros.
Colin-
What is the turnout in German federal elections, though?
Personally, I’d like to note that if one is going to move away from straight FPTP I favor a mix of FPTP and PR…as odd as it is, I would offer up Japan’s current system where you have a mix of FPTP and PR, but it’s done such that the PR seats (Block seats) are elected separately and function on their own (rather than as “top-up” seats). I like this system because:
A) Getting a majority is doable, but a hung parliament is also quite possible;
B) You ensure that smaller parties can get into Parliament with a seat or two without likely causing instability.
The problem with the German system is that you have two “standard” coalitions (either CDU/CSU and FDP or Green/SPD). This works fine; that’s basically a two-party system in everything but name. However, throw a major third party in the mix (the PDS) and you get a “grand coalition”, which IMHO isn’t much better than a revolving door in that it gives voters the ability to rearrange deck chairs in government and not much else. Austria has had a similar problem as of late…and frankly, grand coalitions don’t seem to benefit anyone but uninvolved parties in post cases.
I’d note that I have a very real problem with a situation like Italy as of now, where you have an “assured majority” (due to the majority premium; I’m not opposed to something like what Greece has, where the largest party gets a bump in their seat total, but I really don’t like a system that automatically gives the largest party or coalition over 50%…even in the UK, that doesn’t happen, and there have been hung parliaments on several occasions over the years (and close-to-hung parliaments on a few occasions).
I imagine the high Liberal Democrat score is the rogue. If only because it is the furtherst out from any of their other scores, whereas 15 is low but well within range.
@ Anthony Wells
Have you heard anymore about when we might get the Mori and Comres polls you mentioned on the 28th?
@ Stephen W
I dont imagine its a rogue, Lib Dem support may not be as high as 25 but it must certainly be close, ICM are not exactly clumsy methologists.
p.s. i second Philip jw question:P
Tony,
Will there be any exit polls on the EU election? I know results can’t be broadcast, but seeing as there are a lot of local races, I can’t help but wonder if we might not get a rogue exit poll out late this week.
Others:
Brown has said that he won’t resign in the face of a collapse this week. Part of that strikes me as an attempt to prevent the idea that he would from encouraging voters to “ding” Labour on Thursday to try and shove him out. What are the odds that either he does resign (which I do hold are quite slim) or that as he pulls the knives out in cabinet others start drawing knives on him in a rather quick fashion?
@Antony suprised you’ve allowed the clear majortiy of partisan comments above!
How have the Cons improved their ratings over the last week – shows it’s a rogue poll or that the samples been taken from Kensington or Con HQ.
Michael –
You could say exactly the same replacing “ICM” with “Populus” and “25%” with “15%”.
All pollsters have rogue polls. In fact, over time exactly 5% of all pollsters polls should be rogue polls! It is no reflection upon their methodology, an excellent company should have as many as an atrocious company, it is an inescapable result of random sampling.
I did know when MORI had put their May poll back to, but can’t lay my hands on it now. I expect it will be in the next few days. ComRes I don’t know, it was merely a rumour.
Gray,
There won’t be any EU exit polls, since they’d be pointless. It would be illegal to publish them until 9pm on Sunday night, but it’s not worth doing an exit poll for then as UK votes are actually being counted before then – many counts are beginning at 6pm or so – so that the actual results can be announced soon after 9pm.
@Antony Trust your reading this before deleting – other than my 1st comment today I not sure why your moderating each of my comments? Looking at some of the comments above and there certainly been more partisan issued and you’ve expected – including one that ACTUALLY names myself.
You’ve been consistent to a tea in the past, so why change now- really big fan of the site and recommended to many but i’m afraid your starting to let the right-wing majority dominate debate and the agenda.
Volatile times, I wouldn’t read too much into these numbers.
We get the general flow though, roughly:
Con 40
Lab 20
LDP 20
Oth 20
with various fluctuations depending on election type, timing, and locality.
(my personal feeling is that the Others could gain another 10% off the big three over the next few months …200 MPs to go!)
I suspect the main reason for the Tories’ stability is due to the demographic of their stereotypical voter – i.e.: more likely to vote anyway; and they are the most obvious vehicle for deposing Labour for tactical voters (Plenty of purely anti-Labour (yet not Pro-Tory) votes are probably in the mix for the Tory’s polling).
I think it’s likely to remain in the public psyche that 3-terms worth in a row is about as much of any party they can put up with: whilst labour might never see power again (I can see them collapsing into a sort of 10% SDP type party), I wouldn’t expect any alternative party to hold on for much more than a decade.
Hence, I would imagine that this whole political tectonic shift is not unlike the last one a century ago that brought Labour into prominence; consequently, we could be in for a couple of decades of very interesting politics.
GRAY:-
2005 German Federal Elections-78%…impressive!
Thanks for your thoughts
Anthony Wells………
Which ones are declaring County Council on Thursday night please!?
Thanks
Laz
Chris N – you’re comments are being pre-moderated because of comments like your first one today. If you can’t make points without calling party leaders “opportunistic worms” then you clearly haven’t understood the comment policy and your comments are going to need vetting.
Plus, it’s frankly pathetic to accuse professional pollsters like ICM of drawing a sample from Kensington.
Normally I don’t let through comments whining about other people’s comments either, or the whole thread descends to an argument about moderation. Remember, you don’t see all the comments from other people that don’t get through.
Laz – Bristol, Central Bedfordshire and Lincolnshire
Any rumours of MP’s defecting from Labour? Or arrests of Labour ministers for fraud?
hope these result represnte reality,this government has had it and the polls reflect this anlysis
Wolf – not that I know, other than the stuff Paddy Ashdown was on about a month or so ago. It really isn’t as common as people think – it seems like more when you think back, but only 3 Tory MPs defected from the Conservatives to Labour or the Lib Dems during the slow death of the Major government.
I’m disappointed that there won’t be an election-night programme. Sad case that i am, I’ve already booked Friday morning off to recover from staying up all night!
Anyway, why aren’t the Euro votes being counted till Sunday? it just gives them more opportunity to stuff the ballot boxes with fake votes.
@ Colin 4.58pm – usually I find your points highly researched, intelleligent and I respect them. This time your point is a little off beam I feel. You’ve compared EU election turnout for UK, France and Germany, that all use PR, and found them to be broadly similar.
Then you compare Scottish & Welsh elections (PR)with UK Parliamentary ones (FPTP) and draw inference from that. You’re comparing apples and pears!
For the record, in GE equivalent elections as near to the 2005 UK date you’ve used, German turnout was 77.7% (2005), France 60.4% (2007) and Italy 83.6% (2006). All higher than the UK figure you quote, Germany and Italy massively so.
I never claimed voter turnout as the measure of success for PR. It’s the battleground you chose, perhaps a little unwisely?
There looks like a poll on the front page of tomorrow’s Telegraph….or am I imagining things……?
@Alec
When people say “PR”, I’m not sure how often they really understand what they mean…
“en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_system”
there are tons of variations on the theme, and I think the point is that the system you implement doesn’t magically alter the culture of a country.
Germany and Italy remain distinctive in their cultural norms, and their PR systems yield different outcomes.
Plugging PR into the UK would likeasmuch yield yet another outcome that reflects our own cultural norms:
“www.worldpolicy.org/projects/globalrights/democracy/maps-pr.html”
…you can’t generalise.
PR is one of those things like Direct Democracy that sound great in theory, but when operating in the wild, they are subject to the vicissitudes of human nature.
A preferential voting system would probably satisfy most (if not all) of the desires of people who profess an interest in PR. Ireland is about the only model for that, and turnout is respectable.
@Alec
When people say “PR”, I’m not sure how often they really understand what they mean…
“en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_system”
there are tons of variations on the theme, and I think the point is that the system you implement doesn’t magically alter the culture of a country.
Germany and Italy remain distinctive in their cultural norms, and their PR systems yield different outcomes.
Plugging PR into the UK would likeasmuch yield yet another outcome that reflects our own cultural norms:
“www.worldpolicy.org/projects/globalrights/democracy/maps-pr.html”
…you can’t really generalise about the outcomes of PR being entirely negative; but it isn’t purely the reserve of “free and fair” democracies.
PR is one of those things like Direct Democracy that sound great in theory, but when operating in the wild, they are subject to the vicissitudes of human nature.
A preferential voting system would probably satisfy most (if not all) of the desires of people who profess an interest in PR. Ireland is about the only model for that, and turnout is respectable.
whoops! sorry!
Promsan,
There’s also Australia’s IRV, which seems to work reasonably well. The only problems with that which I see are forcing people to rank large numbers of candidates (particularly in some of the more circus-y by-elections) and the fact that it’s still completely FPTP.
Pete,
It’s the EU rules. The election takes place over four days (Thursday-Sunday) and they force results to be sat upon. Now, that’s not saying it’ll always work…for example, if the penalty were simply a 100,000 Euro fine, a network might well find it to their advantage to stroke a check and unapologetically report on the elections; likewise, a leak to a network based outside the EU would be exceedingly hard to prosecute. I also do seem to recall there being a leak on the Dutch results in 2004, for example.
And, of course, I now find another leak that I think may prove analogous to what I suspect may happen this week: The German Presidential election results got prematurely Twittered out. I have to say that Twitter is certainly becoming a pain in the arse for anyone trying to sequester anything these days.
Alec-yes your right.
@Promsan – I quite agree. In essence my desire is to see a system that permits much greater varition of opinion to be expressed within Parliament, therefore hopefully encouraging new entrants more easily. Whether this actually happens is up to us, rather than the system, although a well constructed PR system should make it easier to break the current party stanglehold.
Alec,
On the PR thing, two points:
Firstly, France only uses PR for the Euros. For all National elections they use a two-round FPTP whereby any seats with no candidate securing 50% in the first round goes into “ballotage” two weeks later. Only candidates securing above a threshold (I forget actual number but it is around 15% of votes) can stand in the second round – though in practice it is often the two top placed candidates. For the presidential election only the two leading candidates progress – which is how the 2002 election produced a shock Chirac-Le Pen run-off.
While a modified version of anglo-saxon simple majority FPTP, it is nonetheless FPTP. What the two-round system does do is allow a wider choice of party and ensure that in all seats the most popular candidate wins. It also moderates the wide swings which can occur under simple FPTP as voters can take stock of the national and local position after the first round.
Secondly, while we can debate the merits of various systems and perhaps even reach a consenus on reform in the not too distant future, there is no way that any change in the electoral system is going to be in place before the next GE.
Even assuming that Brown can get himself organised to introduce a bill and whip it through the Commons, with extensive use of guillotines, it will not pass the Lords. Brown cannot invoke the Parliament Act to push it through because there is less than a year to go. Even then, there is no time for it to be put into effect in practical terms.
Any attempt to even try it will become clear for what it is – a blatant attempt to rig the election to save Labour from disaster – and as such, I doubt even the most passionate PR supporter on the LD benches would support it.