No proper figures yet, but Matthew D’Ancona’s column in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph is already up and reveals ICM have a new poll including European election voting intentions, and that it shows Labour in third place with less than 20%. I’ll do a full report when the figures appear.


19 Responses to “ICM have Labour third in European Election poll”

  1. Antony in past european elections have pollsters over-estimated Labours final vote share, as they usually do in general elections, bye elections, etc….? Or have they tended to get Labour spot on?

  2. ICM POLL

    CON 40 %
    LIBDEM 25 %
    LAB 20 %

  3. SORRY LAB 22 %
    I was too negative about LAB. They are third now in the polls !

    CON 40 %
    LIBDEM 25 %
    LAB 22 %

  4. Labour in third is staggering enough, but under 20% – are you sure that’s not the Euro elections poll?

  5. 40/25/22

    but it is the LD’s on 25…..

  6. Sorry Anthony – you were talking about the Euro Poll!

    The big news is that Labour have fallen to third in a General Election poll!!

    When was the last time this happened (government in third place)? ConHome suggest 22 year, but that doesn’t make too much sense to me.

  7. Figures for ICM :-

    Conservatives – 40%
    Liberal Democrates – 25%
    Labour – 22%

    Euros :-

    Conservatives – 29%
    Liberal Democrats 20%
    Labour 17%
    Greens 11%
    UKIP 10%
    BNP 5%

    Is it curtains for Brown now?

  8. Never mind Europe. Political Betting is reporting for
    WESTMINSTER:

    CON 40(+1) LAB 22(-5) LD 25 (+5)

    LDs second!

  9. Woah, happened alot sooner than i thought!!!!!! i was thinking around late June – Late August (summer timeish) never thought iot would happen this soon!

  10. Translated into seats Electoral Calculus states:

    Con 376 Lab 161 LibDem 82 Others 31

    An overall majority for the Conservatives of 102, the same as at the 1987 GE.

  11. The Tories are around 40 again, consistently which shows that the support is not soft.

    I am unsure as to the other figures. I wouldn’t trust anything at present – as the athmosphere is very very febrile.

  12. Extraordinary figures for extraordinary times! The intriguing thing is that Brown is now considering the latest Lib-Lab pact as a way of ensuring some sort of survival for the Labour party. Some of us are old enough to remember the last one – it ended in tears and virtually destroyed the Liberals. If Clegg has aspirations to be PM one day (some hope!) then he has to replace Labour as the main opposition party first, in which case, in my view, he needs to steer the Lib-Dems away from being tainted by any association with Labour this time. On the other hand, if the lure of Cabinet posts becomes too great to resist then Cameron will surely get a free run and achieve a landslide majority of historic proportions

  13. cogload- every party has a soft votelabour did and every other party has it in the tories case that soft factor is mostly ex-lib dem votes not labour one’s.

    on the point about labour they are doomed even if brown left they would get kicked to bits at the ballot box so no way back for them

  14. My perception about the expenses debacle is that the Torys seem to have come off worse. I guess being the goverment, Labour will get the blame. Oh and that nasty email scandal hasn’t been forgotten. Seems about right.

  15. Cogload

    You maybe right that the Conservative vote is not soft particularly since they seem to be holding steady at around 40%.

    This is only one poll I know but is there a case for saying that if the Liberal Democrats establish themselves in second place in all polls consistently over time the gap between them and the Tories will narrow because people who were considering voting Tory to prevent Labour from being re-elected would no longer need to worry about this as Labour would be deemed as good as finished and could therefore take the risk of voting Liberal Democrat instead?

  16. Richard

    When the Tories do well at the G.E. the Libs generally do badly! Clegg’s only strategy is to go after the Labour vote in the Midlands and the North – he certainly won’t be picking up any Tory seats in the South! All of this plays into Cameron’s hands – he can’t lose.

  17. While that may have been the case in the past, does it necessarily have to be the case in the future? If so, why, particularly since the Tories seem to be so devoid of policies?

  18. Richard

    Prior to 1997, what does anyone remember of Labour’s policies? Personally, I can only recall three things: Education, education, education; a whiter than white government and no tax rises at all.
    David Cameron doesn’t need to worry about minutely thought-out detailed policies. He needs to continue the broad-brush approach of gradually fleshing out his philosophical ideas of social repair, small government and fiscal responsibility – three big ideas that people will respond to and remember. Unlike Blair, the difference this time is that they will all need to be achieved.

  19. OpenEurope is a think tank calling for reform of European institutions. it has published an important league table of MEP performance here: http://www.openeurope.org.uk

    MEPs have been ranked using two main categories:
    ‘Transparency, openness and democracy’ and ‘Fighting waste and misuse of EU funds’. http://www.openeurope.org.uk/research/rankingguide.pdf/

    I have gone through the data for UK Greens, Con, Lab, LibDem and UKIP and summated their scores. The lower the score the better. I noted their position on the ranking, summated those position scores and divided by the number of MEPs found.

    Here are the results :

    Greens – 51

    LibDem – 116

    Conservatives 152

    Labour 205

    Ukip 343

    This survey is vitally important for the electorate. People are understandably angry with the three Westminster parties, and at the moment, due to deficient information, UKIP is the main beneficiary of the disaffection, polling 10-16% at the moment. This research shows that voting UKIP in protest at MP expenses scandals is to jump from the Westminster frying pan into the Brussels fire.