A new Populus poll for the Times shows the Conservatives enjoying to a 20 point lead in Westminster voting intentions, and UKIP overtaking Labour and and Liberal Democrats to establish themselves in second place for the European elections.

Topline voting intentions for a general election, with changes from Populus poll for ITV a week ago, are CON 41%(+2), LAB 21%(-6), LDEM 15%(-2) (note that the Times have taken their changes from the last Populus poll conducted for the Times, a week and a half earlier).

Previously there had been something of a divide between the pollsters, with YouGov and ComRes showing Labour down near 20%, while Populus and ICM showed them up in the high 20s. The lastest Populus poll suggests a further slump in Labour support and brings the pollsters broadly in line, suggesting it is Labour who have most suffered from the expenses scandal. Asked directly who had suffered most from the expenses row 35% said Labour, with only 7% saying Conservative – though 50% said all parties had suffered equally. Asked which of the party leaders was most damaged the contrast was even starker – 62% said Brown, only 5% Cameron, and only 25% said the leaders had suffered equally.

The Times news report doesn’t give support for minor parties, but the maths suggest it is very high. Given the figures for the European elections I’d expect this to include a bump for UKIP and the Greens. Realistically we should expect these to gradually fall in the months after the European elections as publicity and the effect of a PR election fade from memory, certainly that’s what happened in 2004 when we saw exactly the same effect. These polls showing Labour down near 20 are therefore probably quite transitory.

Moving specifically onto the European Elections, Populus’s voting intentions, with changes from their last European poll at the start of the month stand at CON 30%(-4), LAB 16%(-9), LDEM 12%(-8), UKIP 19%(+13!), Green 10%(+5), BNP 5%(+3), so a big boost for all the minor parties. On a uniform swing this would result in the Conservatives winning 28 seats, UKIP 15, Labour 12, the Lib Dems 7, the Greens 4, SNP 2 and PC 1. The BNP would fail to win a seat, though the Times’s report says they are at 8% in the North, so could still gain a seat if their support is concentrated in the North West.

UPDATE: Those big increases in support for minor parties in Populus’s poll suddenly fall into place. It wasn’t necessarily a surge in support; the question asked was different. Three weeks ago Populus prompted only for the main parties, in this poll they also prompted for the minor parties. This runs the risk of over-estimating support for minor parties, almost certainly it is the reason for YouGov overestimating UKIP support back in 2004 (though of course, the mechanics may be different in a poll with interviewer effect).

106 Responses to “Conservatives enjoy 20 point lead from Populus”

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  1. Let’s not forget that the duck-mansion was apparently not allowed as a claim, and that the moat-draining costs were not paid in full. Immoral to try to claim them maybe, but is it on a par with claiming for a mortgage that you have actually paid off? Surely that must be out-and-out fraud! What are the police doing?

    A woman is being prosecuted for fraud because she lied about her address in order to get her child into a better school. If that is fraud, then practically all MPs should be prosecuted.

  2. Lets also not forget that people are starting to get bored by this expenses business. We know it happened, and we are annoyed about it, but quite seriously, it is far from the biggest issue facing our country at the moment.

  3. What an appalling poll for labour – and the euro poll at a pitiful 16%. I think next thursday will be very interesting – real votes not opinion polls for a change, and I don’t think things will look any much better for the current government this time next week just because of that.

    As above, I think Cameron has done reasonably well out of this expenses scandal, seeming to get a grip of the situation in contrast to the ineffectual reaction of Mr Brown. Admittedly at the present time the current prime minister seems to have some sort of perverse inverse midas touch, so any other potential candidate for the job ought to appear at least somewhat better.

  4. I can’t see why anyone would vote Labour on Thursday. Obviously floating voters and those who detest Labour won’t be voting for them, but why would a staunch Labour supporter vote to in a way that would help to keep the current Labour leadership and cabinet afloat? Labour needs some change and voting for them won’t encourage it.

  5. Well, I think both these polls are highly accurate. And I’m glad to see Ukip support rising.

    This is in terms of the amount people are putting through my door.

    I have had 4 Ukip leaflets, 3 conservative leaflets, 1 Labour Leaflet, 1 BNP leaflet, and 1 No2Eu leaflet.

    This tells me as an independant voter that it is Ukip and Conservatives who value my vote the most. They are spending more time and money on me than the other parties by a clear distance.

    I have received no Lib Dem, or Green leaflets and I was rather hoping to do so, so I could build up a profile of the parties, and what they are saying, so as to make a good decision, on who my FIRST EVER vote will go to on June 4th.

    I know we are Non Partisan, but at the moment, I’m looking more to Ukip or Conservatives, based on the sheer amount of effort they have put in, to try and get their message across to me.

    My first vote is important to me, and as such I’d like it to be well informed, if only certain parties choose to campaign for my vote, then obviously I will go more for them. I may never vote Lib Dem or Green based on the sheer lack of effort they have put in.

    However, no one from any party has actually knocked on my door yet.

    I want all the leaflets so as to build up the best picture on who to vote for on 4th June.

  6. All I said was that Ukip had sent more leaflets, why was my comment removed?

  7. Oh and now its back?
    It must have been a problem my end. Sorry.

  8. Peter B,

    I explained in my comment my reasons for my interest in polls more than a month away. I therefore find it odd that instead of responding to my reasons you simply said you find my interest odd!

    I’m prepared to make a TENTATIVE guess at what Yougov. will poll in July and explain my REASONS for thinking this.

    My tentative guess is that we will find in July Yougov. on average polling Cons 43, Lab 23 Lib Dems 19.

    The primary reason for this is the state of economy. Last year for 6 months Lab were averaging about 26%. The only reason this changed was that Brown was able instill in a significant minority of people a greater sense of optimism. He did this by promising through his skill, experience and power to put the economy fully back on track in a relatively short period of time, and the VAT cut was taken as evidence of this.

    However, there was one fundamental flaw in this cunning plan – it was ballocks! There was no way that this sense of greater optimism could be sustained. For this reason I confirmed confidently from the outset and throughout the weeks that followed that the boost in Labour’s popularity was a blip.

    I predicted that by the end of May this year they would be back to where before their party conference. But due to the worsening economy I predicted BEFORE the expenses scandal that Labour would do slightly worse in the polls than they did last Summer. I suggested back then we would see Labour polling 22% on a few occasions this year.

    I think when the GE comes the expenses scandal will probably have relatively little impact on the result. It may cost the Cons 10 seats and Labour 20 seats. And I expect the Euro and Council elections will make virtually no difference to the General Election.

    When the election comes probably next year in May Labour will have seen to have FAILED BADLY on the economy. This is likely to cost Labour about 100 seats or more.

    Whatever the precise lead the Cons have in July I think the polls will generally confirm this.

  9. @Alec

    What you are missing is that Labour has developed a pattern of criminal offences in false declarations about mortgages – from Mandleson onwards. I live in an area of professionals with mortgages. I paid my mortgage off a few years ago. When a mortgage is paid off, the lender has to remove the charge they recorded at the land registry and then return the deeds to you. You then have to put the deeds in your own safe, or in safe custody at your bank’s safe. Unless Labour MPs have undiagnosed Alzheimers’ disease, any claim that they “forgot” about this is laughable. And even if they forgot about this, then they should have noticed that their bank balance was increasing by an unexpected thousand pounds every month. In our area, the utter farce of lying MPs claiming that they “forgot” that they had paid their mortgage off is driving much of this anger. And every one of these liars is on the Labour benches.

  10. I was at a hustings in Cardiff on Tuesday…the Labour guy was getting torn into savagely once expense claims became the subject. I have no idea what Wales will be sending to Brussels.

  11. cynosarges, you are absolutely correct. This is CRIMINAL FRAUD and should be treated as such.

  12. Lets not forget that Labour crucified the Tories in the ’90’s over “sleaze” when those offences (backbenches being paid a few bob to ask questions) pale into insignificance against this current crisis. Labour are just getting pay back for making Major’s life hell.

    The Lib Dems try to use this expenses issue to change the whole electoral system will fail and cost them some support. PR is not popular with the centre or right of British politics so those voters will drift back to the Tories As seen by them going back down to 15% – it just seems opportunistic when the answer tot he expenses issue is simple – transparency (through publishing online all expenses in a timely fashion), rule changes and a few other small changes.

  13. The detail in the poll is fascinating – it lists a load of possible reforms – all of which have been advocated by the Lib dems for years, all of which have majority support and still the Lib Dems poll rating plumets. The only explanation is that for most people voting is an emotional spasm.

  14. More so that usual, people being polled may be trying to use the polls to effect political change.

    So, Labour might be more likely lower because Labour voters want a new leader and the only way to achieve that is to say they’ll switch to the pollsters.

    Tory voters don’t a new leader and want a Tory Government regardless (or at least rid of Labour regardless) so they’ll stay solid and say so.

    A switch to Alan Johnson by Labour followed by a snap election might see Labour back to low thirties, Tories to low forties, minor parties in their usual place….

    …and politics hasn’t changed at all fundamentally: still the switch between the two big parties.

  15. Three questions come to mind:
    1) Why are the LDs taking a clubbing? I ask because Labour is so far down it’s not even funny, but “other” is getting gobs and gobs of support (around 23% here, too) and is above Labour yet again. I know some of it is protest voting, but I’m surprised that the LDs don’t have some of that coming their way on the left.
    2) Will we get tables, and if so when are they expected?
    3) I’d like to inquire to a rather unfortunate thought: Are there any indications of a “shy BNP” effect out there, now or in the past? I ask in large part because of where the BNP is floating in the polls (and recognizing that it’s not socially acceptable to admit to being BNP), and also because such effects have showed up before.

  16. The expense scandal has seemed to go in a cycle on the doorstep when it first broke there was huge rage every house hold mentioned it and canvassing was pretty horrible

    Then came fury and surprise that a politician would still dare to knock on there door after it (and i might add a grudging respect for those of us who did) where we were told that they probably woudl not vote.

    Now there seems to be a cold fury and anger at those in charge hence Labour taking a bigger dip in the polls and people want to punish them I have noticed a lot of Labour voting conservative next thursday and some who don’t normally vote from the Conservatives going out to vote this year! Whilst the Labour vote appears to be about to sit on it’s hands in record numbers these figures about right i would say!

  17. One other thing slightly tongue and cheek didn’t the oracle predict these figures a few months ago (what happened to the oracle)

  18. Anthony,
    “These polls showing Labour down near 20 are therefore probably quite transitory.”

    I don’t think you logically infer that…
    We’ve seen how consistently low Labour’s polls were last summer, and there’s even more reason for them to be consistently low this summer than there was then.
    Sure some “others” are perceived as mainly “Euro-election” parties (e.g.: UKIP), but not all.
    The ball is very much in the court of parties like the Greens for example, for making some less ephemeral ground in some parts of the country: especially amongst the kinds of people who might desert Labour and the LibDems.

    ….I’m just surprised that Labour and the Tories are so high! I’d expect them both to be about 5% lower by now!

  19. @Domesday.

    I think we may be seeing some change in that the LibDems are no longer the automatic repository for “protest” votes. I believe, if Labour does bite the bullet and switch to some form of PR, this may become exacerbated and possibly a new anti-EU challenge from the left may appear alongside a group of anti-EU Tories joining UKIP to signal an end to the present duopoly.

    I am not predicting it but it may happen. It is certainly a possibility.

  20. Yet more proof that the govt gets disproportionate blame for everything that goes wrong anywhere….I am still surprised to see cons doing so well though, they’ve been proving what most people think about them to be true recently…not that labour have been any better of course.

    I do think this could be a rogue, not in terms of labour, but just overestimating cons….even if cameron’s doing a good man of action routine….a godly man of action routine compared to brown…it’s still hard to think that the cons are realistically doing great at a time like this.

    Little surprised at the libdems not so high after the gurkas, them not being hit much by the expenses, and Cleggs decent action man stuff….maybe it’s timing of the poll, maybe the euros pushing them down (because no-one is as pro EU as they are), maybe people saw that his ‘not go home until we fix it’ idea was pretty stupid….but I’m tempted to go with margin of error/rogueness. I’d really expect to see cons 4/5 lower and LD 4/5 higher than they are….but wait and see, maybe people have just decided to back the winning horse.

  21. @ Max King, if I send you FIVE leaflets will you vote for me? :)

  22. Wood – Ray Finch’s explanation is probably behind a lot of the Lib Dem drop in support. Traditionally the Liberal Democrats are the beneficiaries of the “plague on both your houses” vote, with minor parties given prominence by the European elections that vote is now split between lots of different parties.

    If the Greens do have a substantial chunk of Westminster voting intentions, I suspect that disproportionately damages the Lib Dems too, in the same way that high levels of UKIP support disproportionately impact on the Conservatives.

  23. Watching BGT with my kids and too shocked to post on seeing this poll.
    Not too surprised at Labour score but shocked at the Tories.
    It seems that, as others have, said Cameron continues to play the media well. Whether it is genuine or tactical hardly matters for now.
    I guess most of the field work was done before his dithering over Kirkbride so the next poll may show a slight fall.
    I least I got the winner right in BGT.

  24. “before his dithering over Kirkbride ”

    I wonder if that interpretation is correct-or more importantly, as the public see it.

    In fact Cameron consistently insisted that JK ( & her husband) needed to hold a public meeting & explain herself to her constituents.

    JK consistently refused to do so-presumably fearful of the fiasco of her husband’s meeting. She therefore had no option but to go.

  25. “Sorry to double post, but I actually think Richard’s last sentence is seriously weird. What on earth is the qualitative difference between fraudulently spending taxpayers money on a moat or a TV? It explains the poll numbers, but don’t let’s try to pretend its logical.”

    We’re not talking about the rights and wrongs of individual cases but on their effect on people’s votes.

    The average voter does not have a moat or a tennis court or an estate full of trees – the issues that Labour activists have been getting excited about. These things therefore don’t have any personal relevance.

    But the average voter does have a TV but it cost £500 not £8000 and the average voter has a toaster but it cost £10 not £169. They see Labour MPs indulging in extreme profligacy with taxpayers money, this also leads to thoughts about wasteful public spending in general.

    The issues of mortgage fraud and tax dodging are even more important (and there’s no doubt Labour are implicated far more with this than the Conservatives) as the average voter believes they would end up in jail if they did similar things. Political parties acting as they are above the law cannot expect ot be liked.

  26. @ Max King

    “This tells me as an independant voter that it is Ukip and Conservatives who value my vote the most. They are spending more time and money on me than the other parties by a clear distance.

    I have received no Lib Dem, or Green leaflets and I was rather hoping to do so, so I could build up a profile of the parties, and what they are saying, so as to make a good decision, on who my FIRST EVER vote will go to on June 4th.

    I know we are Non Partisan, but at the moment, I’m looking more to Ukip or Conservatives, based on the sheer amount of effort they have put in, to try and get their message across to me.

    My first vote is important to me, and as such I’d like it to be well informed, if only certain parties choose to campaign for my vote, then obviously I will go more for them. I may never vote Lib Dem or Green based on the sheer lack of effort they have put in.

    However, no one from any party has actually knocked on my door”

    Might it not have occurred to you that UKIP and the Tories tend to have a little bit more money to fund these things as they’re backed by many millionaires in industry whos interests they will protect in office? The Greens don’t accept such donations as it’s corrupting and are funded purely from members.

    Saying that apparently Labour are poorer than us in this election according to some hacks I’ve spoken to recently.

  27. The fall in Lib-Dem support could be for two reasons;

    1. The public don’t like the posturing over PR as they view it as opportunistic. That seems odd given the answers to the reform questions, but remember often voting intention polls and then the sub questions do throw up strange results. Mike on PB never rates the sub question/answers at all (not that sure what Anthony thinks?) and says the only results that matter are the voting intention results.

    2. The other possibility is that the Lib-Dems are suffering for their pro EU stance. As we’re currently in a european election campaign and all the evidence suggests the British people are getting more eurosceptic by the year, then its hardly surprising that the two pro EU parties, Labour and Lib-Dem are suffering against the two eurosceptic parties, Con and UKIP.

  28. Anthony, please can you extend your list of Conservative target seats beyond 200: this poll predicts 211 Tory gains.

    This poll is clearly terrible news for Labour. Labour has tended to floor at a bedrock support of about 28%, both in previous polls and in elections, in the 1980s, when they have been on the ropes. But they are ow below this level een given a 3% sampling error.

    Coming below UKIP would seriously jeopardise Labour’s future. But actually I think the long-term threat may be the NO2ID list of groups to Labour’s left. This list may not get much support next week, but it could be a first sign of left-wing regrouping. The left, whom New Labour have totally ignored whilst in power, have nothing to lose now by splitting away to regroup.

    The poll is also disastrous news for the Liberal Democrats, who should be capitalising on the difficulties of Tory and Labour MPs. But as I have frequently pointed our recently, the polls are not picking up whether the LIBDems are doing badly everywhere, or whether they are losing support in Tory seats whilst gaining support in the many fewer seats where they are second to Labour.

    I pointed out recently on another thread that there are major practical and ethical difficulties at polling at a point where large numbers of people are about to cast postal votes. I cannot comment too often about the appalling changes to allow postal and, even worse, much worse, proxy votes on demand. Let me say yet again that postal votes, and obviously proxy votes, undermine the secrecy of the ballot. And they also undermine the practices of election campaigning, with consequently reduced public interest and hence decreased, not increased, turnout.

  29. @ Anthony, that makes sense yes, good point Ray.
    @Gin, doubt it’s the first one…a year ago most of the cons support over labour was because cameron is huge on PR and Brown makes Major look interesting.
    Second one makes sense, although europe policies aren’t getting as much coverage as they might.

  30. I repeat a question I asked some days ago after a previous poll. Has any poll attempted to differentiate between those areas with only one election on Thursday and those with two? From reactions on the doorstep I can forsee many people voting quite differently in the two elections, and turnout may well be different. Presumably County Council areas have been subjected to much more leafletting and canvassing by the major parties.

  31. @ Ray Finch and Anthony

    A switch to PR would certainly throw things in the air. If Labour think PR is their only hope then minor parties potentially become electable…

    … but only potentially, in an STV system then being in the centre is key. The Lib Dems have presented themselves as centre left (or at least Ming did and most activists are) so PR and a shift of the LDs more rightwards might be a first class strategy for them.

    Imagine…Labour delivers PR to save itself, and the LDs genuinely form a party of potential Government on the back of STV…

  32. i’d love to know where UKIP are getting the funds for all these leaflets and posters.The last i heard they were near bankcrupt , with very few members and hardly any activists. Could it be the other parties/organisations/media that are funding them to try to keep the BNP vote down.

    Looking at the UKIP/BNP performances in recent local polls, it seems that BNP consistently out perform UKIP, with the BNP regularly polling 15-20%, whilst Ukip 3-5%.

    The only thing i can think of is that BNP voters arent admitting to voting for the party or some of the pollsters are bending the truth slightly!

  33. I think Labour would have to get a popular mandate from the people in a general election before doing something radical like changing the voting system.

  34. @ Daniel Lee

    I suprised you havnt got one yet, ive had 2 – 3 off the Lib Dems already, 1 off UKIP, one off Labour, one of the Tories, one off the greens and one off the BNP.

  35. @Wood

    I’m not saying I just vote based on the amount put through my door. What I am saying is that, it seems some parties just aren’t putting in the effort to put their point across to me.

    Obviously policy matters first to me, and I will be reading every leaflet very carefully. But I can’t really vote for Greens or Lib Dems, as they haven’t done anything to convinve me to vote for them.

    I think other people will be like this too, maybe even more extreme, if parties don’t post leaflets, then they are saying they don’t care who we vote for.

    And I dont do it based on the sheer number as you were suggesting Wood.
    Ukip has sent me the most, but I don’t think I will vote for them, I know we are Non Partisan, but I think I might vote Conservative, because yes they have put a lot of effort in getting my vote, and I agree with a lot of what they are saying.

    So I may vote for them, even though Ukip has sent more through. So I don’t just do it based on the number of leaflets as you were suggesting.

  36. @Michael

    It was myself who hadn’t received leaflets from Lib Dems or Greens, not Daniel.

    I also would like a leaflet or two from Libertas, there was a lot about them in the news, but they seem to have faded into obscurity at the moment. I really want to have an informed opinion when it comes to voting day.

  37. Nobody believes that Labour’s sudden interest in PR is anything other than a cynical ploy aimed at depriving the Tories of the keys to No 10.
    The country is now desperate for a general election for two reasons. To get rid of the government and to clear out those MP’s they feel are fraudsters. A date should be named in late September. We cannot go on like this. Surely even die hard Labour supporters realise this don’t they?.

  38. Nick, Thursday October 1st has always looked like a potentially attractive election date to me.

  39. Labour is the party that will, in purely seat terms, lose out more from PR than the Tories, so from a cynical point of view, I would suggest that Alan Johnston proposes it to:

    1) Undermine reform proposals by Cameron, since with Clegg on the PR side, Cameron looks “alone” and

    2) Raise hopes of a “progressive alliance” with the LibDems to prevent the Tories from having an effective majority.

    I presonally reckon that the LibDems are too far from the Labour party these days to contemplate the idea, and in any case, with Labour’s polls, the LibDems might be considering how to best to threaten them in their heartlands, and contest to be the “real” opposition in Cameron’s government.

  40. I don’t like the idea of PR.
    It won’t work. We should have a system where the MP’s do have a constituency that they can be held accountable to.

    I like the idea of a callback if you get enough signatures on a petititon to force a By-election, but I think the threshold should be raised from 5% to about 20%. Otherwise, By-elections would be everyother week, as parties can just get their supporters to sign a petition and call another by-election.

    If you think about it, a constituency with a marginal majority, no matter who won the other side could call a By-election.

    So a higheer threshold is needed, 20-25%.

  41. It will be interesting to see what the Scottish figures are when the tables are available.

    In the last two populus polls in May the figures have been;

    Lab 26% & 28%, Tory 18% & 20%, libdem 13% & 10%, SNP 38% & 40%, others 5% & 2%.

    If Labour and the LibDems are down and the Tories and others up, but with the Tories still benefitting less in Scotland and Labour not as badly then I’d expect something like, assuming that the propmting for smaller parties hasn’t hiurt the SNP too much;

    Lab 26%, Tory 19%, Libdem 12%, SNP 37%, Others 6%.

    That’s a great figure for the SNP, but once the euro effect has passed and time moves the expenses affair off the headlines I’d expect us to fall back to closer to 30%, but that’s still close to double what we got in 2004….



  42. Anthony

    No particular comment on this poll. Just wanted to say I really like your polling reports. Even the papers in which the polls first appear aren’t usually as informative and helpful. Please keep up the good work.

  43. @ Max King

    My apologies;)

    I suppose if you really wanted to weigh things up about who to vote for you could read their websites for their policies if you havnt yet recieved a leaflet.

  44. Peter the SNP have declined by 6% share of the vote in the YouGov polls since Sept. last year (according to the stats available on Electoral calculus); so I hardly see the SNP pushing beyond 30%, that would be pretty impressive.

    The Liberals in Scotland are struggling betwen 12-14%, that is to be expected- but only 19% for the Scottish Tories? Your hoping I think!

    The last Scottish sample from a UK wide poll (YouGov) placed the Sco Tories on 29%, and given the last Scotland only poll showed a 21% (with the previous polls since Jan 09 all being 20% with YouGov) I simply can’t believe that 19% is being optimistic. But we shall see…

  45. As a variant on the “election leaflets” poll, there is the “poster stuck on the house” poll. The only ones I’ve seen around are UKIP and LibDem. Must be something to do with being nowhere near power for a long time or ever, methinks.

  46. A general election now would not, of course, deprive disgraced MPs of their fat payout. Only by-elections would do that, but of course there’s a flaw in the system which is that only an MP themselves can cause a by-election by resigning. No-one else can set the process in motion.

  47. @Keith

    I haven’t seen any posters on any houses for these European elections.

    The last political poster I saw was in the London Mayoral Election 2008, 2 houses had “Support Labour Vote Ken” in their windows, thats about it.

    Most posters on houses on our area are things like “Say no to Tesco” and “Say no to The Bridge”.

  48. Keith, I think it’s something to do with not wanting your car keyed or your windows broken!

  49. I’m surprised that so much informed opinion here fails to factor in a clear pro-government stance from our nationalised broadcaster.

    If you take your news from the BBC of course you will be surprised by a 20% Tory lead but, surely not, when cold hard logic is applied.

    This isn’t just about expenses. It’s about the state we find ourselves in after 12 tears of the current government, including a decade of the current PM as chancellor.

    Expenses are merely the straw that broke the camels back.

    It is finally dawning on many of our politically apathetic fellow countryman just what a financial mess our nation is in and how long it’s going to take to recover even with a safe pair of hands at the helm.

    Most of Brown’s own party know he’s finished and there’s only one realistic alternative regardless of how reluctant Auntie might be of admitting it.

  50. @ N beale

    Agreed, the Lib Dem and Labour vote are steadly heading towrads one another, they are on a collision course, unless labour comes up with nothing less than a miracle by next election they could well see themselves pushed into 3rd place in the popular vote, whether that translates into seat shares is unlikly:/

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