Polls ahead

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If the Telegraph are sticking to their normal monthly timetable we can expect to find their monthly YouGov poll sometime this evening. I’m out at a meeting, so feel free to use this thread to discuss the figures when they appear. I’ll update properly later.

UPDATE: Well – clearly the Telegraph aren’t sticking to their normal timetable! Perhaps we’ll get it a bit later than usual, or perhaps the YouGov/Telegraph poll earlier in the month counted as their regular one.

UPDATE 2: On rather firmer ground, there is a Populus poll in tomorrow’s Times, covering both Westminster and European voting intentions. As usual it should be up on their website around about 8 o’clock tonight. I’m expecting MORI and ComRes to produce something too in the next couple of days.


83 Responses to “Polls ahead”

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  1. It would certainly be a surprise to see both Conservative and Labour support remain at their previous levels.

    As both have been clearly “guilty” (I use the word loosely) of many expenses mis-demeanours, we must expect to see a rise in support for ‘Others’.

    Be interesting to see how both major parties suffer. Or not.

  2. I think that the tories shall hold on about their current 39%- the tories have already sustained the big hit due to them, and will avoid another big hit due to David Cameron being percieved as being decisive in dealing with ‘corrupt’ MPs in his own ranks.

    Labour, being in total dissary; with Johnston apparently making government policy now and Brown nowhere to be seen; and Blears and the Cabinet ministers exposed in the Telegraph I’d be mightily suprised if labour hold above their previous 23-28% share.

    The Liberals ought to get between 19-22% I’d reckon thank to Clegg coming into his own in recient days over the gurkhas first and now MPs reform.

    In short- bad for labour, not quite so bad for the conservatives, and good news for the liberals.

    As for Scotland, this wont tell us anything (because I mistrust Scottish samples in UK wide polling, it tends to be wholly unreliable).

  3. Oh go on then – I am up for Cons 38 Lab 24 Libs 22.
    But what do I know cos I rely on you guys!
    Roll up roll up – nothing to enter competition!

  4. But wouldn’t it be fun if Labour appeared in ‘third’ place.

    That would set the cat amongst the pigeons. LOL

  5. Id say about:

    Cons 39 maybe 40 probably 39

    Labour low 20’s 23 maybe 24 Probably 23

    Lib Dems 19 maybe 20 probably 19

    Con lead – 16 points

  6. Compo versus Cleggie then!

  7. if labour are above 25% i would be questioning the poll the same as if the tories lead was below 40%, but if the lib dems clim it maybe that labour will come third and not second

  8. Con 41
    Lab 23
    Lib 21

  9. ok i’ve had no sign of the yougov poll wayne but are the figures correct if thay are labour are unchanged conservatives +2 and lib dem +2 others down four

  10. Stuart,

    Calm down dear its my prediction !

  11. wayne has done the same on politicalbetting, I think it is a guess as I can’t find evidence for it. If so it should be labelled as such.

  12. I predict a a shock result:

    Arthur Scargill’s Socialist Labour 40%
    Monster Raving Loony Party 30%
    Legalise Cannabis Alliance 20%
    Independents 10%

    …it’s about as good a guess anyone else at the moment!

  13. As everyones guessing what else did you think. I would have put the source/link if it was the poll !

  14. Sadly I think the Tories will drop to around 35/6% – Labour will be aound 25/6% and the Libs about 22%. This week the media coverage has all benn about Tory sleeze and although Cameon has done very well I don’t think that will be enough to counteract the dreadful media storm.

  15. Back from my meeting – but no figures yet. YouGov have, of course, already done one poll for the Telegraph this month so perhaps that counts as the regular one.

    We’ll see when the front pages turn up I guess.

  16. Ock Anthony, you mean I’ll have a night of cold sweated worrying?!

  17. I predict that it will be 28% for Labour, 37% Conservative and 17% Lib Dem. Thats my guessing =]

  18. Telegraph front page was just on News24 with no obvious sign of a poll – looking as though YouGov/Telegraph aren’t doing the normal timetable (or have the poll hidden on page 94)

  19. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/

    Both parties down, tories around 38, labour around 23, lib dems around 19.

    Look at the graph halfway down the page…

  20. yes its the old one…. :(

  21. Maybe the telegraph got the poll and didn’t like the tory lead so they ditched it ! They are after all after tory blood !

  22. To pick up the previous thread regarding the accuracy of ICM GE polls:

    I think that it is fair to say that ICM’s approach has a built in caution regarding fluctuations in public opinion. And I agree that generally speaking this approach is valid. The exception to this is when the fluctuations are large.

    At the last GE there was a big drop in biggest party’s support, namely Labour’s. Because of ICM’s bias that people normally vote for the party that they previously voted for their polls failed to pick this up.

    The data speaks very clearly for itself:

    The last 5 polls for ICM before the last GE showed Labour’s support to be at 39, 39, 40, 39, 38%. As we see ICM overestimated Labour support by 3%

    During the same period Yougov did 7 polls and the figures for Labour run as follows:37,37,36,36,36,37% demonstrating their approach to be much more accurate on this occasion.

    Undoubtedly Labour are on track for another big drop in their support at the coming GE. In this situation it is clearly wise to regard Yougov as being more accurate.

    In a sense the dynamic and dramatic changes since the time of the start of the war in Iraq, the loss of Labour’s moral compass under Bown and the recession have wrong footed ICM’s traditional approach.

    From now until the GE we should probably subtract 3% from every ICM poll to arrive at a accurate assessment of Labour’s standing.

  23. WAYNE- if that is true then like MP’s a new code of conduct could be set up to say, that any poll no matter what i’s finding should be published without alteration

  24. it’s not i’s sorry

  25. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least one poll in the near future has Labour third behind the LDs or maybe in a dead heat with them.

  26. I don’t buy any of the recent polls. I doubt any of their methodologies is able to factor in the unprecedented public feeling in the country. I believe Labour’s current position, low as it is, is still being overstated by quite a few points. Public feeling against them is downright hateful. They’re not going to be defeated next week, they’re going to be all but wiped out.

  27. I think the latest poll may be:

    National Poll

    Conservatives: 45%

    Labour: 22%

    Liberal Democrats: 21%

    European Poll

    Conservatives: 30%

    Labour: 23%

    Liberal Democrats: 24%

    UKIP: 15%

    Green: 6%

  28. Kevin,
    I’ll go with that on the local elections if just because the areas lean Tory. I think there’s going to be serious blood in the streets electorally for Labour, with increased vote shares (and possibly seat totals) for Other. Tories will do well because of FPTP even if their share drops (though the LDs may pick off some pieces in areas, too).

  29. I predict:

    Con’s – 36%
    Lib Dem’s – 19%
    Lab – 19%
    UKIP – 8%
    Greens – 7%
    BNP – 4%
    SNP/PC – 6%
    Others – 1%

  30. Paul I think your being a little optimistic on the level of Tory support in the next UK wide poll, but your possition on Labour and the liberals seems to me just about right.

    As for the European elections- I’d be very surprised if the liberals managed to come second, my money is on a neck to neck finish for second place between labour and UKIP (the liberals never do particularly well in European polls- being the stalwarts of further integratio)

  31. Anthony,

    What do you think of Philip’s ICM theory. He is sort of agreeing with me and sort of agreeing with you ?
    He has put the point across much better than both of us I thought (without taking sides)
    Well done Philip !

    Are are we getting another Comres this weekend and Mori ?
    Thanks

  32. Just heard from Mike Smithson On PB that their is a Populus Poll in tomorrows Times and that the figures should be avaliable at 8 tonight.

  33. I love reading the deliusioned majority that is Con supporters that they feel they’ll be largely immune to any sharp fall.

    My experience on the doorstep is many voters have seen through Cameron’s media posturing – the view continually given to me is that Cameron would have known all about this, certainly the system that he’s now crying foul about, and is merely playing up to the camera’s.

    I predict the Con’s lead will be in single figures.

  34. Reported house price rises and some success for that car scrapping scheme suggest to me – along with the recent expenses fiasco – that things will be a little less clear cut than many on here think.

    If the poll is not actually carried out for another 24 hours or so, don’t be surprised to see a Conservative lead cut to around 9%.

    The Conservatives have been the more “guilty” – at least in the press – of expenses mis-doing. Certainly in the last week or so.

  35. You gotta love it. Everyone GUESSING what the poll figures will be. Someone will have egg on his or her face but I’m not getting into the game of guessing who. Let’s just wait for the figures shall we.

  36. Chris

    Why dont you grow up and use this site to discuss poll results not any biased feelings. its proves that people that dont like actual results to turn to insults. School play ground comes to mind. Please either join in properly or better still keep quiet

  37. And right on queue….!

  38. Bonjour David
    You say “The Conservatives have been the more “guilty” – at least in the press – of expenses mis-doing. Certainly in the last week or so.”

    If that’s true, I’m not sure it will necessarily lead to a bigger drop in the polls for them.

    If politicians in general are suddenly seen to have been on the make, then it’s always going to be the incumbent Govt that suffers more in the polls (IMHO).

    They might just get credit if Darling’s forecasting proves to be correct (and everyone else’s wrong), if the fiscal stimulus proves to work (Cameron : “we opposed the fiscal stimulus”), and if the matter of the expenses takes a turn for the worse for Cameron.

    I think it’s very risky to take on all those who were unfortunate enough to have been caught being uneconomical with the actuary. it might just lead to questions about Cameron’s own record and level of forgiveness offered to him in the past.

    There are some people out there (eg that Hitchens hack) who are out to get him.

  39. While speculation is somewhat pointless, I will join in nevertheless. I think that the Tories will have taken a bigger hit these last few days than Labour, in part due to the media spotlight. For instance, Julie Kirkbride has been given a lot more prominence by the broadcast media than Margaret Moran despite their both resigning the same day. If fieldwork covers today as well, then the Questions for Cash issue will add further fuel. Add to this the news of house-price rises (Nationwide) whether or not this proves illusory, and the narrative has definitely shifted in the government’s favour this week.

    My guess would be that for a GE the gap will have fallen by 3-4 points to the range 9-12% (depending on where you think it was before). However, I also think that any poll taken at the moment on voting intentions for a GE is even less useful as a guide to the actual outcome than normally.

    The Tories must be hoping for a relatively good Euro result for Labour. The last thing they’d want right now is for GB to be replaced this summer by a potential election-winner like Alan Johnson. Many uncommitted voters will I suspect be lured by the possibility of real election reform e.g. AV+ compared to the Tory stance of “keep FPTP at all costs”.

    Leslie

  40. @Antony – not sure why you moderate my coment but I assume for consistency you’ll be moderating Stephen’s?

  41. @ Leslie

    Silly as it may seem, I suspect that the Speaker’s timing for his resignation was designed to save Brown’s neck. I find it hard to believe, given Michael Martin’s record, that he set this up solely to allow a good competition for Speakership.

    The competition will, however, occupy all the time before the summer recess, time which might otherwise have been spent plotting to remove Brown post-Euro election.

    It’s impossible to plot in the summer, since plots need a lot of information to get going and it’s not at their fingertips outside Westminster, so autumn rolls on after the Recess and the Euro results will be old news.

  42. Chris,

    Your argument that Cameron must have known what was due to come out must apply equally – if not more so – to Brown. The question then becomes; “How have the party leaders reacted ?”

    On any objective assesment one would have to conclude that Cameron has out-performed Brown in terms of statements made and actions taken.

    Yes, the scandal has hurt all three main parties. While there may be differences in the nature of the abuses, there is no particular pattern which would suggest one party’s MPs are more/less guilty than any other. Yet the ratio of resignations (dismissals) of sitting MPs suggests that Cameron has acted both faster and more firmly than Brown.

    It is therefore not unreasonable to deduce that the voters may punish Labour more harshly than Con or Lib Dems at the forthcoming polls – in particular for County Councils.

    The Conservatives face a different problem at the Euro’s in that a sizeable chunk of potential support may be easily transferrable to UKIP. In my view we will undoubtedly see a significant differential in Con performance as between County Councils and Euros, but the former will be a better guide as to the likely result at the GE.

  43. @Richard – I disagree, as last summer showed summer recess provides MP’s the time to plot and scheme and also without the watchful eyes of whips at westminster.

    Not supporting any plotting though, this is the last thing Labour needs.

    Would like Johnson as next leader though, if Labour lose the next election.

  44. Well as eeveryone else is doing it here are my confident Euro results predictions.

    Tory;

    This is a great result for us and shows the nation wants a general election and a Tory government.

    Lab;

    This a great result for us and shows that those who wrote us off have been proved wrong.

    LibDem;

    This is a great result for us and shows that we should go back to our constituencies and prepare for a long protracted debate on the right form of PR

    UKIP;

    This is a great result for us and shows that the people of Britain want to leave the discredited EU.

    Green;

    This is a great result for us and shows that the public are putting the environment at the top of the agenda.

    SNP;

    This is a great result for us and shows we are closer than ever to Independence.

    BNP;

    This is a great result for us and shows that there’s a bright golden haze on the meadow……

    You read it here first….

    Peter.

  45. @Chris

    Perhaps your bias might be less irritating to others if you learnt to use the English language correctly. The grocers’ apostrophe (your use of “camera’s”) just demonstrates an embarrassing incompetence; and the failure to understand the difference between queue and cue is laughable. I hope that you are the author for any Labour propaganda leaflets you distribute.

    Additionally, perhaps you might elucidate what part of Stephen’s post you consider to be biased?

  46. @Paul HJ – Don’t think you’ll learn many lessons from the council elections as guide to the GE. From 97-05 Labour was continually beaten by the Cons in the local’s but had no resemblance to the GE results.

    I disagree my view has Cameron has reacted and been shaped by events and flip flopped his views according to the media i.e. Kirkbride.

  47. Richard/Chris – MPs can and do plot away from Westminster, though it makes things harder (they have to pretend to be delivering birthday presents and stuff ;) ).

    I suspect that isn’t the reason for the delay though – firstly it won’t work: the rumor-mill suggests that there will be lots of plotting straight after the European elections, they won’t bother waiting for a new speaker.

    Secondly, Speaker Martin’s own explanation seems perfectly feasible – the election of the Speaker takes precedence over all other business, so had he gone immediately the Commons would have had to elect a new Speaker the next morning, when realistically it is desirable that they have some time to consider the candidates properly (it would also have resulted in the government losing whatever business was scheduled for that day, buggering up the Parliamentary timetable, which is hardly desirable).

  48. @CYNOSARGES

    again right on CUE……

    Sorry what was your point again?

  49. Sheesh, will you lot stop bickering. Half the point of the comments policy is to stop the sort of them-and-us atmosphere developing where people spend their time trying to score cheap points off people with different political views.

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