Polls ahead

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If the Telegraph are sticking to their normal monthly timetable we can expect to find their monthly YouGov poll sometime this evening. I’m out at a meeting, so feel free to use this thread to discuss the figures when they appear. I’ll update properly later.

UPDATE: Well – clearly the Telegraph aren’t sticking to their normal timetable! Perhaps we’ll get it a bit later than usual, or perhaps the YouGov/Telegraph poll earlier in the month counted as their regular one.

UPDATE 2: On rather firmer ground, there is a Populus poll in tomorrow’s Times, covering both Westminster and European voting intentions. As usual it should be up on their website around about 8 o’clock tonight. I’m expecting MORI and ComRes to produce something too in the next couple of days.


83 Responses to “Polls ahead”

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  1. I wonder if the public aren’t almost at the point of expenses fatigue. This story has gone on for a very long time now. I think the public get the idea of whats been going on and will have pretty much formed all their judgements. But there will be a limit to the daily the publics endurance of the daily drip, drip, drip of revelations before they just start switching off from the daily detail. We won’t know when we’re at that point until the polls stabalise, but unless the Telegraph rounds this up, that point will be reached quite soon, I think.

  2. Antony – what your opinion on what you expect to see in the polls in the coming days? Go on stick your neck out!

  3. But even if there is fatigue, that will simply cease the focus on the detail- it will lead to people seeing an MP in the newspaper or on tv in a story about expences and then assuming their guilt without any analysis. Then it won’t matter what anyone says, they’ll be guilty by accusation. So the post-judgement phase may cause more heads to roll as the verdict will automatically be ‘guilty’.

  4. I see the Tories have managed to clear out some of the old Dinosaurs in recent days. More space for some proper young ‘libertarians’ to take their place. Good stuff.

    Hopefully some of this bad press will give a short lived ‘relative’ fillip to Labour and enable them to take an unexpected second place in the Euros and secure Browns position as leader ’till the main election.

    I fear however that UKIP may still nudge them into second unfortunately and leave Cameron with a less […competent…] competitor.

    [Perhaps a less partisan choice of words Ivan… – AW]

  5. Chris – I don’t make predictions since I often have a fairly good idea from private polls or stuff in the field what the actual results will be.

  6. Trust your having a good chuckle at some of the predictions then.

  7. Ok Anthony, point taken, appologies.

    I meant to say that, if Labour changed their leader, whoever replaced him would doubtless be seen in a better light and give them a higher vote share.

    As I’m currently a Tory voter I would not wish to see this!

  8. never would have guessed that Ivan.

  9. My prediction:

    Cons – 35%
    Lab – 23%
    Lib Dems – 20%
    UKIP – 11%
    Greens – 6%
    BNP – 5%

    Something like this wouldn’t surprise me. I think people are going off the idea of voting Tory. Especially, with the terrifying rise of the BNP and those scamps of UKIP.

    Another point I’d like to make. I’ve recently spoken to a lot of friends regarding elections and that (we’re all 17, so will vote at the next GE) and I have found only a few who will be willing to vote Conservative. I think theres 3 so far. Labour support is pretty big to be honest which suprised me a lot. Theres the odd BNP tosser about but its still a minority. I’m also the only Lib Dem I think haha.

  10. I fear that the results we will see in the next polls will be around Lab – 27/8, Con-38/9, Lib-21/2.

    The recent media coverage has been largely focused on the Tories with Brown basically disappearing off the map for the last few days. Although this doesn’t say very much for his leadership it at least doesn’t mean he’s being damaged by the scandal.

    Also, I fear that the expenses scandal overall will have helped Labour. The downside of low expectations. For the public who have switched off Labour recently because they are disgusted by things like the Mcbride scandal their opinion of labour isn’t going to get much lower but their relative opinion of the tories/libs is. Hence they may feel less of a need to switch off labour, since they do not now appear that much worse than the other lot after all. I don’t think this will give Labour a massive boost, but low20’s is well below a sustainable long term score for them given their natural support base, and I don’t think DC or the Cons or the LD’s will have convinced these people enough that having turned out to be no better than Labour (in their perception) they don’t feel the need to switch away from their natural support.

  11. Re Joshua’s comment (which I found rather self-deprecating – almost turning the comments polcy on its head by being a bit partisan against his own preference)

    Is there any history re polling of first-time voters?
    I have a feeling they look more at what a party stands for than at the personalities.

  12. Joshua,

    A straw poll amongst your friends / colleagues may well be very honest, but is not necessarily representative. (for example, my sons would be hard pressed to find any friends whose parents vote other than Con – the sons being way too young to vote)

    A quick and easy validation check is to measure the opinions of your friends against the party & majority of your sitting MP.

    As for your prediction, is this for the Euro elections or for the next GE ? It looks more like a euro prediction to me, but I think you have LDs too high in that case. The evidence to date is that LDs underperform their national standing at Euro-elections. This would appear to be a result of the LDs being seen as the most pro-EU party in a generally eurosceptic country.

    An important reason for this disparity in share of vote is that one of the areas in which the LDs are strongest at Westminster is the SW, which has historically also been the most eurosceptic region in the UK. The SW is the one region where one cannot assume that UKIP support has come mainly from disaffected Conservatives.

  13. Joshua,
    Where on earth do you live?
    Keep the predictions coming!!!

  14. Paul HJ is spot on. I live in North Devon and have recently seen LD posters alongside UKIP ones at the same houses.

  15. “I wonder if the public aren’t almost at the point of expenses fatigue.”

    If it was just about fiddling expenses GIN I would agree.

    But the public knows, and will increasingly be informed ,that this is a symptom of something much deeper -a thoroughly rotten Parliament :-

    http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/05/jane-griffiths-exposes-the-whips-on-expenses.html

    That’s why I think voters at the GE will be looking for MPs with a credible record for honesty & integrity-or failing that a fresh new face who looks untainted.

  16. Joshua-as has been said , straw polls & friends & family are no guide really.

    But I agree that they can be interesting-even startling.

    My grandaughter , aged thirteen, said to me recently that she liked David Cameron because he “seems honest”.—-yeah I here you say ,we all thought similar thoughts in 1997-and I would have to agree.

    However-my grandaughter then said “Mummy is even thinking of voting for him”…..My daughter has been a solid Labour supporter since she could vote & cannot say “Thatcher” without looking sick.

  17. Mummy probably won’t though when the policy options rather than him just seeming nice become clear.
    question, when does apparent dcecisiveness start to appear dictatorial and opportunistic, perhaps after a week or 2.
    Brown’s may have been slow in getting going but at least the Labour party is following some kind of process and giving miscreants the chance to explain themselves.
    Is Camerons, I will do this, i will do that starting to appear like a desperation to show decisiveness.
    the call for a GE is being understood by more and more as opportunistic and premature until the baddies are wheedled out and new candidates found.
    I do expect much of a drop for westimister polls yet for the cons but the drip drip is starting to work.
    Euro polls all over the place due to UKIP being a free protest of course.
    I have a had a sneak preview of tomorrow’s Telegraph claiming an even bigger story than the expnses scandal
    It leads on the revelation the ‘energetic’ poster on UK Polling Report ‘Ivan the Terrible’ turns out to be a Tory. Major shock it says further down.
    It also reckons someone called Chris may be part of the Labour machine in discguise???
    apologies but we need a new poll.

  18. Mostly Labour with a few BNP scattered about? Sounds like you live on an inner-city council estate Joshua, hardly indicative of Britain at large.

    Don’t worry, elsewhere the Lib Dems have the ‘youth vote’ sewn up. If they could get any of you to actually bother going out to vote they’d be up among the big boys!

  19. Jm Jam – I mentioned PR stunts unravelling in an earlier thread, and to an extent I see this happening now with Cameron. His approach to Kirkbride was pretty sluggish – she and her husband had claimed differing second homes and don’t appear to have a main home as far as the Fees Office goes. This was the clincher for me, but she hung on and DC was prepared to half back her. I get the feeling he now regrets the tough words as he now realises applying the same criteria all round means he won’t have anyone left. His very weak reform proposals have been blown out of the water by Clegg, and I see him as floundering.

    I’ve said many times before – a Cameron government will be like a Brown budget – a lovely menu but a bitter aftertaste. It’s the kind of government I for one have had enough of.

  20. Can people tell me what the situation is with opinion polls at a point when many people will already have voted by post in elections – and presumably could therefore be subject to exit polls? But then people like me who vote in person, as matter of principle, could take account of reports of the postal voting.

    Postal voting on demand is highly objectionable, however popular it may be on first sight, for reasons concerning the security of the polling process and also because postal (and even more so proxy) votes are not secret (NB. the UK rightly has intermational obligations, which cannot be revoked, to ensure that elections are secret. But it also creates the horrible grey time we are now going into where the campaign goes dead because people have already voted. This destroys the momentum of the camapign and consequently reduces, not encouages as the Government purported to hope, turnout.

    Everybody who cares about democracy really ought to be highlighting the contempt for the voting process represented by Labour’s changes to electoral arrangements.

  21. I think I was misunderstood. I only wanted to share what my friends thought because it generally shocked me that there was so much pro Labour support.

    My prediction is what it is, a prediction. So I find it weird that some of you would criticise it. I could be right, I could be well of. We just dont know of course.

  22. Tick tock, only another hour or so to go …

    My prediction for the next few polls: Labour, Tories and Lib Dems all taking a kicking. Tories still ahead though. UKIP and other Others up.

    However, once the EU elections are over and the expenses storm fades away over the coming weeks, the polls will likely revert to more or less what we’ve been seeing over the last few months: substantial Tory lead, Labour floundering in the 20s.

  23. On Times website now;

    Westminster

    CON 41 +2
    LAB 21 -5 (1)
    LD 15 -7 (!!?)

    Euros

    CON 30 -4
    UKIP 19 +13
    LAB 16 -9 (!)
    LD 12 -8
    GRN 10 +5
    BNP 5 +3

    So after 2 weeks of horrendous headlines about the vanity of Tory MP’s and Cameron still polls over 40% for a GE!

  24. Whoa. Big for the minor parties, especially UKIP and the Greens, Not so big stuff for the BNP, still pretty low for where they would like to be at this stage.

    The Greens climbing five is big given that they have not had nearly as much media coverage as UKIP or the BNP, so good to see them bounce up. I think it would be enough to give them four MEPs (?), but UKIP have clearly stolen the most.

    However, I do hear that the ‘liberal’ papers plan on running hit pieces on UKIP’s allowences in the European Parlimament for tomorrow.

  25. Dreadful, dreadful Lib Dem performance. Could the Greens overtake them?

  26. Could be interesting to see. I doubt it, I reckon future polls might bring the UKIP figure back down a bit and raise Labour and Lib Dem up a little bit.

    BNP I imagine won’t change too much.

    I suspect UKIP might dip a bit given the almost xenophobic like nature of tonight’s broadcast. I think some of those who may have considered voting UKIP to stop the BNP for whatever reason may see that as an almost endorsement of the BNP line.

    Just my guess, may or may not happen, still plenty of polls to go as Anthony says.

  27. Great news for the Tories considering the hit that they have taken for days now on the expenses scandal.

  28. Im shocked to see the LD’s coming off so badly despite hardly being in the news. Thoughts anyone?

  29. Yes, I must confess that I’m a bit surprised by the LIbDem rating. Clegg has been performing very well of late especially re: Gurkhas and MP recalling.

    I’ve been working up some predictions with fllow members of the VoteUK discussion forum in anybody cares to take a look. We have both national:

    http://www.adamtebble.com/prediction_of_gb_euro_election_results

    and regional predictions available:

    http://www.adamtebble.com/euro_2009_regional_predictions

  30. Luke,

    The UKIP broadcast was made a couple of weeks ago – it is not an original tonight. Also, what part of it was “xenophobic”? Was that just your partisan line, hoping to damage UKIP?

  31. The fact that they were hostile to ‘Turkish Muslims’ entering the EU for one, plus the continued demonisation of ‘Eastern Europe.’

    That seems like a pretty xenophobic attack to me. What makes Eastern Europeans and ‘Turkish Muslims’ any different to anybody else in Europe?

    Even David Dimbleby and the Question Time audience found UKIP immigration policy suspiciously similar to BNP’s, did they not? I believe Farage was also met with a number of boo’s as well.

  32. I bet Nick Clegg is banging his head on the desk, have we ever seen such a big drop in one poll?

  33. Cleggs previous Election broadcasts were very poor
    the last one was sensational , a very strong leadership broadcast.,the poll results were taken prior to that one.
    County council results for the LibDems will probably show a 22%/23% eclipsing Labour but well behind the Conservatives.

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