You need to separate out Westmister intentions – which will be for a GE either this autumn or in May 2010 – and likely result in the Euros – now less than a week away.

You can probably take at least 2-4% off Westminster share for each of the four main parties to arrive at likely figures for Euros since others (of which there are 9 choices) will take at least 20% if not 30%.

I disagree with Peter’s projection above for next week as I think he has SNP and Lab too high and Tories and Others too low – the latter much too low.

In my view we will probably see:

SNP – 27-30%
Lab – 20-23%
Con – 18-21%
LD – 9-11%
Others (incl Green Ukip etc) – 22-28%

The seats are still most likely to split 2:2:2 but 2:2:1:1 or even 3:2:1 may happen.

But from the UK polling, its labour who have fallen to the depths of 22%, and not th tories. But in th Scottish case, I just havent felt that ‘anti-tory’ feeling when out canvasing and leafleting, even when it was Bannockburn I was in! (Oh and damn good work must go out to the SNP, the Labour candidate only just scraped home on 60 votes!). But if labour support gets a hit, then its only natural that it shall fragment, with a good 2/3 going straight to the SNP, sure- but that last third I’d expect to splinter between liberals and tory (both of which have taken the lead in tackling the abuse by MPs) and that matched with the favourable feelings for auntie bella, and the perth conference message ought to hold us well above 15%.

It will be the euros that shall tell all (with a pinch of salt due to the usually low turnout)- but I’ll bet money (and have!) that it will be 2:2:2- and that ought to confirm the strenght of the tory vote surely?

However, when it comes to local elections, euro elections, by elections, etc… they do of course strggle much more, but then so do all the pollsters.

Peter.