Comments on: Voodoo polling corner

By: Morus

Morus — Fri, 29 May 2009 17:30:55 +0000

I just read the shocking voodoo poll in the Wales on Sunday, and realised I actually used to know the journalist who wrote the article!!

By: Wayne

Wayne — Tue, 26 May 2009 13:41:19 +0000

Anthony,

Do you know if we are getting any polls before the end of the month ? Hopefully not ICM who seem to be on a different planet to other polling companies !

By: Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)

Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP) — Tue, 26 May 2009 13:04:46 +0000

“or Scotland may just be acting a little nutty.”

Wouldn’t be the first time, by a long way……

Peter.

By: Stuart

Stuart — Tue, 26 May 2009 12:20:32 +0000

@thealeaxweb “doonhamer, tories would have zero seats in scotland? Ouch.”

They’ve only got one just now, and they had none in 1997.

No reason to be shocked that I can see.

By: Gray

Gray — Mon, 25 May 2009 18:53:45 +0000

Guys (Dean in particular),
Do remember that once you kick out “would not vote”, this is the “real” result (since other pollsters throw out the “wouldn’t vote” crowd):
SNP 43%
Labour 27%
LibDems 11%
Cons 11%

Peter’s suggested range is:
SNP 30-40%
Lab 25-30%
Tories 15-20%
LibDems 10-15%
other +/-5%

So the SNP is a little high and the Tories are a little low. Labour is “in range”, as are the LibDems, but all in all nobody is more than 4 points off of where they “should” be…and I could easily see the SNP benefitting from an anti-Labour tendency (Duverger’s Law and all).

The “Labour on 20%” -is- rubbish, but that’s also not the result when you look at it. 27%, just below their other lowest, is hardly out of character right now, and I can see the Tories sliding some as well (as they have elsewhere). While I’d expect them to be higher, the poll may have just been a little off in that regard, or Scotland may just be acting a little nutty.