ICM have joined the fray of companies polling on the European elections. Their first poll on the 2009 European elections has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 24%, LDEM 18%, UKIP 10%, Green 9%, SNP & PC 4%, BNP 1%. It was conducted on May the 20th and 21st.
Overall the poll shows the main parties increasing their support since the last European election, which seems somewhat implausible given the current political events. UKIP are up in double figures, though not to the heights YouGov, BPIX and ComRes have shown and the BNP are down at just 1% – a figure that seems very unlikely. Of the minor parties only the Greens are up on their 2004 performance.
As the Guardian say in their commentary, when compared to their ratings in other polls and the support they received in 2004, it looks as though there is a social desirability bias here resulting in the BNP support being unreported.
UPDATE: On the same day we have the results of an ICM poll for the taxpayers alliance conducted back at the start of May before the expenses scandal broke. It has both national and European voting intention figures – both now out of date – but more importantly shows us that when ICM asked about European voting intention they included UKIP in their prompt along with the three main parties. It’ll be interesting to see if they used the same wording for their Guardian poll.
Other questions in the ICM/Taxpayers Alliance poll suggested support for the single currency stands at 23%, with 75% opposed. 28% said they would vote in favour of the Lisbon treaty in a referendum, 62% say they would vote against.