It might be more accurate to say that they thought they should be deselected BECAUSE they had paid back the money and thereby implicitly admitted guilt.

This raises two issues.

There is inescapably from natural causes a cull of experienced MP’s – even in the largest party at an election, but this time the party leaderships, constituency assocations, the electorate and the justice system will all have their turn.

When DC becomes prime minister he will have to fill government positions from a party with an unusually large number of inexperienced MP’s. As Peter points out, incumbency may be a disadvantage, and if constituency associations think it is, some may take a hard line with sitting MP’s.

Although there may be a large majority over Labour, representation by BNP/UKIP/Green and Nationalists in Wales and Scotland may mean that the overall majority is small.

Another problem is that some of the existing Conservative MP’s with two and three jobs may not be available to be MP’s have junior party positions and some will not stand if the rules are strictly drawn.

Then again there are always a handful of drunks, incompetents and those coasting into retirement.

The new prime minister will have enough problems without that.

The second issue is that what is called “Local Factors” on the constituency pages may be far more important than ever before and national trends a less useful guide than those who read these pages would like to think they are.

How can DC admit to being “heir to Blair” ? That must be a turn off for many.

I’ll have a score on that for sure!

Vote Share Handicap

4/1 Conservatives (Scratch)
4/1 Labour +12
4/1 Liberal Democrats +13
4/1 UKIP +14
4/1 BNP +21
4/1 Green +24