There is a new YouGov poll in this mornings Telegraph. Topline voting intentions are CON 39%(-2), LAB 23%(+1), LDEM 19%(nc). The “others” are made up of 6% for UKIP(nc), BNP 4%(nc), Green 4%(+1), SNP/PC 4%(nc).

For Europe voting intentions stand at CON 26%(-2), LAB 21(+2), LDEM 14(-5), UKIP 16(-3), BNP 7%(+4). The Green figure wasn’t given it in the Telegraph, but they were mentioned as being ahead of the BNP. Notably this is the first poll to show the BNP gaining any sort of significant boost from the expenses row (judging by the maths, I’d expect it to also show the Greens benefiting). From early polls that showed UKIP were almost the sole beneficary of the expenses scandal, other minor parties now appear to be reaping the rewards.

The poll was conducted between the 14th and 16th of May, so just two days after the previous YouGov poll. Normally my instinct would be to say that public opinion doesn’t shift so quickly, so any movement is likely to be just sample error. In these circumstances, public opinion is obviously very volatile. The net result however is much the same – we are awash with European voting intention polls, opinion seems to be rapidly shifting, and we should probably just take the broad view of the polls.

Looking at the other questions in the poll, David Cameron continues to come out of the scandal far more positively than Gordon Brown. 54% of respondents thought he had acted more decisively, compared to 12% for Brown.

Questions on expenses themselves revealed the pattern of anger and desire for retribution we’ve seen elsewhere. 86% thought there was a widespread problem, 64% thought MPs who had made mistakes should face prosection, 64% thought they should be deselected even if they had paid back the money.

YouGov also asked about the Speaker – 54% said he should resign, with only 13% saying he should stay.

(While I’m here I should also point out something that isn’t a new YouGov poll. The Scottish Sunday Express printed up the cross-break from the YouGov/Sun poll yesterday. This had a sample size of only 178, and would not have been weighted specifically to Scottish demographics, so won’t be a good guide to voting intentions at all. As with all small regional cross-breaks in individual polls, it’s best ignored).

UPDATE: The full tables are here, and support for the Green party in the European elections stands at 9%. The Christian Party/CPA are on 1%, as are Libertas.

28 Responses to “New Yougov poll – UPDATED”

  1. I think 39 for the Tories, given the news over the last couple of weeks, is probably a very good sign for them.

    I suspect 5 or 6% have drifted off to minor parties in a show of anger at the expenses row but, come election time, they will doubtless return to the fold.

    If Labour aren’t under 20 now they never will be so I take their ‘core vote’ to be about 24/25 when the dust settles. They will still need a miracle now to gain the 10% or so needed to move into hung parliament territory.

  2. As to the BNP % , there is a definAte narrative being promoted by those who oppose them and hope for them not to get elected, to show they are not benefitting from expenses

    They were doing well enough before expenses, and i cant see them being a minor beneficiary of expenses. Even if it adds 1-2% to their overall vote, it will be enough for them

    I also expect there to be big regional variations, where UKIP are absent on the ground, and BNP have been plugging away for years, as to who benefits- say inLeicestershire where BNp fighting almost a full slate at county elections, and UKIP coudn’t raise a single county candiDate

  3. I find it extraordinary that the Telegraph do not bother to mention the Green vote, despite saying they are ahead of the BNP…

  4. remember that each party carries a probable variation of 3% either way, the BNP moving from 4% to 7% probably means nothing, we need another 2or 3 polls to know.

  5. Shockingly, I agree with Ivan again!
    Only caveat miraclefor Labour unlikely but disaster for the Tories possible, where would their lost votes go then in a G.E.
    Key issue is can Cons stay above 40 for GE and 37-39 now with he expenses thing going on would suggest they will.

  6. I’m pleased I come across as reasonably balanced occasionally Jim Jam!

    For all the talk of him being a lightweight Cameron really has a machiavellian grasp of media manipulation. The front page of the Sun today is a masterstroke.

    Taking the lead on the expenses issue and talking up the need for an immediate election to ‘clean up the sleaze’, siteing his brand of Conservatism as the answer, is absolutely genius.

    What I cannot understand is how, given he must be a fairly bright spark to have got this far, Brown can have managed all this so badly.

  7. Ivan

    I think Brown is lost without the likes of Mc Bride around him.

  8. Whatever the situation of BNP vs UKIP in Leicestershire County Council elections, that is hardly a “regional variation”. Only two groups wish to talk up the BNP. The BNP themselves – to pretend that voting for them is some how normal or acceptable and the Labour Party, who wish to mobilse people to vote Labour as an anti-BNP vote. If people are upset about wasting money on expenses, they are ahrdly likely to want to pay “six figure sums” to encourage emigration. As if South Africa did well under aparthied!

  9. the bnp will win some seats in leicestershire but tories will gain more

  10. Weighted Moving Average 41:23:18 – the LibDem:Lab gap is steadily decreasing (down to 5.1).

  11. if ever there was an incentive to vote for a fringe alternative then surely this is it. not so much interseted in a vote of no confidence in the speaker, let some or any mp with an ounce of moral fibre table a no confidence vote on the house of commons.

  12. G.Egan – any MP can put down a motion of no confidence (any MP can table anything!), but time would only be provided for a confidence motion tabled by the opposition or by the government.

    There was a time when oppositions used to regularly table no confidence motions, presumably so they could have a day’s debate complaining about how rubbish the government was. They rarely happen these days because with an overall majority governments *always* win them. No matter how disillusioned they are, how bad the situation is, how opposed to their leadership they are, MPs very rarely rebel on votes of confidence.

  13. This is a more realistic showing for the BNP although I think it’s still underestimating what they will get. They could still be prevented from winning more than one or two seats if there’s a big turnout but I suspect voters won’t take that opportunity.

  14. @Anthony, if it was the government always winning the votes then why did they stop now? Parliament has become steadily more rebellious over the year, there were 2 full parliaments (years) in the 1950s without a single government MP rebelling!

  15. Tony,
    Where can we find the actual tables? Usually when you announce them, you also link to them.

    Also…what do you make of the shuffling for the upcoming Local elections? I know there aren’t polls asking things at that level, but how bad is Labour likely to take this round, and who is likely to get those seats?

  16. Gray – Oops, I meant to put the link in the update and forgot. It’s up there now. No polls, but my guess is a Conservative landslide for the local elections, given that it’s a FPTP election with not a vast coverage of minor parties.

    Quincel – MPs are more rebellious on normal bills, but I wouldn’t necessarily count on that following through into votes of confidence.

  17. I think this will be a huge moral booster for the BNP who were feeling a little depressed from recent polls, even though they know polls don’t normally reflect true BNP support.

    I expect the BNP % to increase over time as the UKIP frenzy dies down.

    Expect more and more anti-BNP propaganda as polling day draws ever nearer.

  18. Anthony,

    Thanks for the table links, The SNP are ahead of Labour in both but it just tells us the general trend no more than that, weekend talk of 37 seats is just daft.

    it does however raise an interesting issue of whether low turn out and anger could mean that encumbency isn’t the benefit it has been in the past.

    if this continues could it make a difference to the underlieing weighting of your Election Predictor.

    On these figures I’d say that the euro result looks like;

    Lab 2, Tory 1, LibDem 1, SNP 2.

    Sort of normal service restored, but the Tories did have a good conference at the weekend so depending on Turnout they might nudge out the LibDems.


  19. Anthony,

    Any reason for the long delay in Populus updating their results page… I know you have all the contacts.


  20. “I think this will be a huge moral booster for the BNP who were feeling a little depressed from recent polls, even though they know polls don’t normally reflect true BNP support.”

    Where is the evidence that polls underestimate the BNP ? The BNP are always over estimating their support. They kite fly claims to be standing claims to be fighting every seat in local elections getting lots of publicity from lazy journalist, and then the stand in a few or no seats at all. Mainly the whole exericse is to flush out potential BNP candidates. They know from their canvassing they get pledges of support from people who don’t vote at all or are scared to say No on the doorstep. They were predicted one seat on the London Assembly, they got 1 seat. The last euro poll predicted 4%, they got 5%. The 3% in the last poll and the 7% in this poll could just as well be a stand still 5%.

  21. @Ivan – I would ureg everyone to be cautious before lauding Cameron’s media savy. Constantly chasing tomorrows headline is a skilled art, but as New Labour found out, this approach eventually breeds cynicism and contempt as is no replacement for real policy and principle. Tonight for example I’ve heard Cameron talk about signing pledges about transparency. I only overheard a radio headline, but my first thoughts were ‘lets be transparent about which country Lord Ashcroft lives and pays tax in, and lets also see who contributes to Tory party coffers behind the facade of front organisations’.

    Don’t take me as a Labour supporter, new or old. Its just that Cameron really is the heir to Blair – that’s the problem.

  22. Just a note re the detailed data for last week’s Populus poll . There is an error on the Populus website and the link to the detailed data does not work but they have kindly emailed the full datatables to me . If anyone would like them please let me know .

  23. Quite a few interesting betting opportunities around for the Euros now. Here’s one that we’ve put up at ladbrokes which has been quite popular.

    Vote Share Handicap

    4/1 Conservatives (Scratch)
    4/1 Labour +12
    4/1 Liberal Democrats +13
    4/1 UKIP +14
    4/1 BNP +21
    4/1 Green +24

  24. I reckon the Green bet looks bloody good value. 6% at the polls (loads of disaffected Labour voters in addition to all the vegetarian kids and global warming nuts) would give them a 30% share which should be enough to win surely?

    I’ll have a score on that for sure!

  25. I have an instinct that alot of people will vote BNP in the EU as a protest against the established parties (because ‘it doesn’t matter’ and for the party of choice at the locals. Those same people would not admit to anyone that they would vote BNP.

  26. Alec

    How can DC admit to being “heir to Blair” ? That must be a turn off for many.

  27. “64% thought they should be deselected even if they had paid back the money.”

    It might be more accurate to say that they thought they should be deselected BECAUSE they had paid back the money and thereby implicitly admitted guilt.

    This raises two issues.

    There is inescapably from natural causes a cull of experienced MP’s – even in the largest party at an election, but this time the party leaderships, constituency assocations, the electorate and the justice system will all have their turn.

    When DC becomes prime minister he will have to fill government positions from a party with an unusually large number of inexperienced MP’s. As Peter points out, incumbency may be a disadvantage, and if constituency associations think it is, some may take a hard line with sitting MP’s.

    Although there may be a large majority over Labour, representation by BNP/UKIP/Green and Nationalists in Wales and Scotland may mean that the overall majority is small.

    Another problem is that some of the existing Conservative MP’s with two and three jobs may not be available to be MP’s have junior party positions and some will not stand if the rules are strictly drawn.

    Then again there are always a handful of drunks, incompetents and those coasting into retirement.

    The new prime minister will have enough problems without that.

    The second issue is that what is called “Local Factors” on the constituency pages may be far more important than ever before and national trends a less useful guide than those who read these pages would like to think they are.