There is also a new European election voting intention poll by ComRes in the Sunday papers. The poll is commissioned by UKIP. The topline figures are CON 28%, LAB 23%, LDEM 14%, UKIP 15%, GRN 11%, BNP 4%.

Labour are doing better than the recent BPIX and YouGov polls, though it’s unclear whether the poll was past vote weighted. It’s also the first poll where the Greens appear to be benefitting from the expenses row, though again, it’s unclear what prompting by party name was used.

I’ve collected all the European election voting intention figures here.


38 Responses to “ComRes European voting intention poll”

  1. What’s interesting is that as a proportion of their support as at 1st May the Conservative loss appears higher than Labour’s. Labour’s level was of course low on 1st May .I was out watching a Tory team campaigning for Euro in an affluent residential and resort town yesterday . The reception was not good, BUT the hostility was to Hon Members generally and the EU rather than the Conservative party. I’m afraid this is something the Tories may have to live with on 4th June, as far as Euro is concerned but NOT the local elections.

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  2. Jon,

    One reason may well be that is relatively easy for voters who are inclined to Conservative to switch to UKIP for the Euro elections with every intention of returning to the fold at the GE (now probably later this year rather than next).

    People who are/were traditional Labour supporters have both a wider and a harder choice, which may well lead them to “leaving” Labour more permanently. In all probability most will simply abstain, but they may still tell pollsters that they would vote Labour as their default position.

    As you say, the Tory party will simply have to take a possible hit at the Euros and hope that the current furore subsides before we go into a GE campaign. Fortunately, since the base in 2004 was so low, a score in the region of 28%, in particular if Labour are down in the teens, can be “spun” as an improvement on 2004 rather than a disaster – especially if at the end of the day Tories end up with a net gain in MEPs.

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  3. Paul H-J,

    I think you are right, but we will have a fair idea on the evening of the 7th June after the Euro results are in. We won’t actually be able to compare like with like, but the Euro constituencies are so large they should produce useful comparisons with aggregations of the local results available on the 4th.

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  4. Paul H-J,

    I think you are right about the relative easiness of switching from the Conservatives to Tory. The alternative for Labour supporters will be the Green Party, which is who I’ll be going for.

    Very bad poll for the Conservatives though, about a 25% reduction in vote, I guess it is an impact of ‘the moat cleaning’.

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  5. Can’t help noticing that even in this poll which has substantially higher levels of support for minor parties than many other recent ones, the BNP still can’t catch a break. It’s almost as if they are an unpopular bunch of marginal characters who don’t need to be pandered to …

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  6. Timdavies,

    With respect, not “vote”. Present perceived share of the poll. With twelve days to go, not quite the same thing. Applies to all parties. Suggest you look at the “Westminster” intentions.

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  7. Interesting Green figures…

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  8. The “minor parties” includes the SNP, who are not so minor within Scotland. There are few Conservative votes to transfer to UKIP which has little support in Scotland as they are in reality the English Nationalist Party.

    Ex-Labour votes will go to any and all of five parties. Disaffected Labour voters in the past have mostly stayed at home, but if the level of anger is maintained and especially where MP’s who are open to criticism are allowed to stand again, then even some of the huge Glasgow majorities may be overturned by the SNP and they will gain far more seats than even their most optimistic supporters dared hope for a few weeks ago.

    There is no doubt that the SNP government is trying very hard to avoid making mistakes, and desperate to show that they are making numerous beneficial changes. This may be their only best chance ever to persuade voters of the advantages of independence.

    Alex Salmond is saying that the Westminster parliament should adopt the SP procedures for expenses, and so it should. That is what the Scottish Parliament is for, and the better governance of Scotland is a subsidiary objective.

    I say that because Donald Dewar told me personally half a century ago that his vision for the Home Rule parliament was that it should be a model for the reform of Westminster.

    If these reforms had been put in place ten or twenty years ago, the SNP would not be in Government, and independence would not now be inevitable.

    It’s too late now. As the SNP say “It’s time”

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  9. BNP up to 5% in BPIX poll- best one for them recently

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  10. I remember back in ’89 when the Green Party did really well with 15%, I think it’s perfectly feasible for them to match that again this time… imagine this!

    Con 24%
    UKIP 23%
    Green 15%
    Labour 15%
    LibDem 11%
    BNP 8%
    Others 4%

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  11. That 11% for the Greens reminds me of the 1989 Euro elections when they got 14.5%, but no seats due to FPTP system. Of course, the situation is very different now, but 11% should get them about 8 seats with PR.

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  12. Great Green figures… although I would be surprised if they got this much in the end…

    John b Dick.. agree that the SNP are on a high, disagree that independence in inevitable.. all polls suggest that support for separation is static.

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  13. As far as I can tell the figures for the SNP are based on a subsample, so although all the indications are that we are doing well it really is no basis to make a seat prediction let alone 37 out of 59.

    As it stands at the moment I think that we could be close to getting three out of six seats with the Libdems, Labour and Tories one each, but if we only get two then I don’t know who else will get two on these figures.

    We could even get three parties getting two seats and the LibDems, or even Labour not getting any.

    We really are in starnge times and new ground.

    Peter.

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  14. I am a Labour supporter but think this poll is probably over-stating what would happen for us if the Euro-poll was tomorrow.
    By polling day I do expect to be in second place nationwide but by no means certain.
    Following on from a discussion on a different thread the approx 50/50 left right split in nearly all the recent polls is consistent and is replicated here although the broadly pro EU parties total a bit more; hence my view that the Lab Score is probably over-stated and the Cons (or UKIP) understated.
    Euro-Sceptics tend to be more trenchant in their views so I do expect Cons+UKIP to outscore Lab, LD, Greens + Nats on polling day.
    (BNP neither right or left as far as I am concerned)

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  15. JIM JAM

    Polling day may be 4th June but can I remind you over half of the votes are being cast over the next weekend!

    In my town there are 22% postal votes. With a 30% + turnout and nearly three quarters using them less than half the voters will attend polling stations?

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  16. Good point Laz.

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  17. “I am a Labour supporter but think this poll is probably over-stating what would happen for us if the Euro-poll was tomorrow.”

    Hmmm…

    A lot’s happened this last week., and there are two more weeks to go: plenty of time for more “events” to take place.

    When you say “overstated”, you mean it’s a bit too high?! Or that the “lowness” is overstated?

    I wonder whether the turnout will be high enough to deliver on any of these polls!

    “Euro-Sceptics tend to be more trenchant in their views”
    [roll eyes] than who?!
    Euro-Philes are equally more trenchant in their views – there just isn’t evidence to suggest that there are as many of them.

    Surely it would be more accurate to say that most people don’t know and don’t care about the EU… it’s more a thing for political zealots on every “wing” you care to imagine (or deny), with the evidence consistently showing a larger number of zealots on the Pro-Independence side?

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  18. Most of the numbers in this poll are almost identical to the last Euro election in 2004.

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  19. I think Labour score lower than this poll.
    As we are in the E.U those agin are more likely to vote is my point.

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  20. Lets face it – the general public views the Euro elections as a consequence free vote. That is why a significant minority of Tory voters will vote UKIP. To most people it makes no difference who their MEP is, it makes a little more difference who their council is and it makes more difference who runs the central Government.

    With that I wouldn`t, as a Conservative, care if we got 28% if all the Westminster polling is 40%+.

    I notice the Lib Dems have dropped around 5% – easy for some Lib Dems supporters to go Green in protest at the three major parties.

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  21. The great thing about the break down of the ComRes poll is this:

    South East region-

    Con- 28%
    Lab- 22%
    UKIP- 15%
    Lib- 12%
    Green- 16%
    BNP- 2%
    Others- 4%

    North of England (containing BNP’s target seat):

    Con- 25%
    Lab- 29%
    UKIP- 11%
    Lib Dem- 15%
    Green- 13%
    BNP- 6%
    Others- 1%

    These results show the Greens beating UKIP and the BNP in two regions, and beating the BNP by a fair shot.

    There has been alot of under-estimation of the Greens on this site, but it is clear that many voters are seeing a potential in voting Green, perhaps due to a ‘clean’ image the Green Party may invoke.

    But across the North West, 13% for the Greens would be enough to get an MEP and 6% to the BNP would result in none.

    In the South East region, 16% would be enough to give the Greens two MEPs. They only need 14% to do this.

    If this persists, and I hear that a YouGov poll published tomorrow suggests 34% are either voting Green or considering Green, then this is something unheard of for the party since 1989.

    But time will tell if these results continue, and I look forward to seeing more concrete breakdowns of such polls via their constituent regions.

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  22. Absolutely Mike.

    I and most I know would vote differently in each of the three types of election coming up.

    I would imagine the Euros are going to be an unprecedented group kicking and a few months on the naughty step for the main three, with the expectation from the bulk of the concerned public for a lot of political chocolate and flowers in order to woo them back to any extent.

    Somehow though, I just have a feeling that the turbulence is not over by a long shot, and all three face some degree of real threat of losing some seats to a few new actors on the scene, mostly from lack of turnout in the next general election… and a few of “Martin Bell” type independent candidates.

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  23. Anthony – you got a white suit?

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  24. @Laz

    Let’s hope the postal votes are better policed than they have been in the past, or all the polls could be way off.

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  25. I do find it odd that Labour appear to be receiving the brunt of the anger, when the Tory record is easily as bad. Cameron has done in effect nothing, other than say he will investigate and give a god press conference. Brown has said exactly the same but has at least suspended 2 MPs. Cameron is also personally receiving a shockingly easy ride – I struggle to see why claiming the full interest relief allowed for three years under the ACA for a very expensive ‘second home’ despite being worth a reported £30m is morally acceptable for a man preaching austerity.
    I think the people have decided there will be a change of government and are focussing their ire on the governing party. If Cameron was PM I suspect the roles would be reversed.

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  26. Averages for the last 3 Euro polls from BPIX, YouGov and ComRes:

    C – 28.7%
    Lab – 19.7%
    UKIP – 17.0%
    LD – 16.0%

    Green and BNP figures were not available with the BPIX poll so I haven’t given any average ratings for those parties.

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  27. @Alec

    it is probably true that Labour are suffering most because they are the government, but there are also these factors:

    1) The Speaker (Labour) spent nearly £1m in trying to have the expenses claims suppressed.
    2) Cameron has shown clear Leadership, by having all Tory MPs expenses published on-line. Conway had the whip withdrawn some time ago.
    3) Brown claims expenses on a private flat in London when he has lived in Downing Street for 12 years! At best the flat is his third home. Taxpayers know that there is no third-home allowance.
    4) The ‘millionaire’ jibe just doesn’t wash. Most MPs on all sides are probably millionaires. It doesn’t take much nowadays. I’m a very ordinary bloke, but if my mother dies before I do, I’ll be halfway there, simply because I will inherit her house and my own mortgage is paid off.

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  28. The Telegraph is reporting figures of CON 39%, LAB 23%, LD 19%.

    Also European figures of CON 26%, LAB 21%, UKIP 16%, LD 14%.

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  29. NEW POLL ALERT:

    “The Telegraph/YouGov survey put the Tories 16 points ahead of Labour. Mr Cameron’s party polled 39 per cent, down six on last month, Labour 23 per cent, down four, and the Liberal Democrats 19 per cent, up one.

    Crucially, the “other” parties are now also on 19 points, the same as the Liberal Democrats and only four behind Labour. That is a surge of nine points and shows that voters are considering turning towards more minority parties.

    The poll found that none of the main parties was on course to perform well in the European elections next month. Among those certain to vote on June 4, 26 per cent backed the Tories, 21 per cent Labour and 14 per cent the Liberal Democrats.

    One of the big beneficiaries of the expenses scandal could be the UK Independence Party (Ukip). It is on 16 points, putting it in third place.

    There has been concern that the BNP is well-placed to win its first seats in the European Parliament. It is on seven per cent, behind the Green Party. “

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  30. Cheers Stuart

    What I’d give to see the Greens and UKIP both beat Labour and maybe the LDs, would sure give them a boost that might just make the GE more interesting. The Tories would wtill win, but imagine if the Greens were actually polling for a seat or 2.

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  31. Just a thought: could the Labour Party come FIFTH at the Euros?

    YouGov has the Greens ahead of the BNP, who are at 7%.

    Best ever Green result was 14%. If they can better that, could we be about to witness the destruction of the Labour Party before our very eyes, as it splinters in ALL directions: Con, LibDem, SNP, Plaid, Green, BNP, UKIP, assorted independents and anti-sleaze candidates, Monster Raving Loony.

    Is there any political party that Labour is NOT leaking vast amounts of votes to?

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  32. Stuart,

    Probably not !

    Hang on, what about Mebyon Kernow ? Do Labour have enough votes in Cornwall to leak more than a few thousand to MK ?

    Still, in local relative terms, they will undoubtedly leak in that direction too.

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  33. @Pete B – I can’t agree with point 4. Cameron simply isn’t a millionaire because he has the good fortune to have bought a house that has risen in value. He is a seriously wealthy individual, as is his wife, (daughter of Lady Astor no less) with the bulk of their wealth not earned by themselves as individuals but gained through accident of association with wealthy families. I repeat – a £30m fortune sets this man apart, and his need to borrow £400,000 at taxpayers expense to buy a very substantial property to serve as his constituency home when he could have straightforwardly purchased an appropriately modest home (or rented?) without the need to trouble the taxpayer is another sign of the dislocation of morality prevalent among MPs. The fact that too many like you (on all sides) seem prepared to condemn this behaviour on a partisan basis leaves me feeling that we will not truly be able to deal with these issues.

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  34. How many jobs vary the income and expenses according to the empoyees wealth?
    I may vote Labour locally as I know the candidate
    ukip in europe and Conservative in a general election.

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  35. Alec,

    What seems pretty clear, regardless of what you choose to think of David Cameron’s handling of the issue, is that his personal expenses are not far out of line. He is one of the cleanest MPs on this matter (though not quite the cleanest) as he ONLY claimed for mortgage interest. Now I don’t think he should have claimed it, but in comparison to all he could have claimed, and what most other MPs claimed, he claimed very little.

    As William correctly points out, his own financial situation is entirely irrelevant, and that of his wife is even more so.

    If you want to claim to be impartial, as you so often do in these threads, at least try to give some semblance of reality to your claims rather than just make it obvious that you can’t stand the Conservative party.

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