Comments on: The effect of the expenses row

By: wolf

wolf — Thu, 21 May 2009 16:32:49 +0000

I think some Tory voters think the day of the old aristocrat as MP might be drawing to a close. Not many lords in UKIP or the BNP.

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Thu, 21 May 2009 08:50:50 +0000

Promsan,

Agreed, almost in its entirety.

Only point I would draw to your attention is that while Tories can be reasonably confident of pulling back in a GE c80% of votes lost to UKIP in Euros, the residual UKIP vote can and does hurt at a GE. There were at least a dozen seats in 2005 where the UKIP vote exceeded the Lab majority. In a close election this can make a difference. Had UKIP not stood in those seats in 2005, the Lab majority could have been reduced by 20-25 seats. Not enough to change the outcome, but enough to make Brown’s current position more perilous.

By: promsan

promsan — Wed, 20 May 2009 20:56:09 +0000

Paul H-J

“While it is unpleasant shedding votes to another party in the run up in any election, of the main parties, the Tories can be most confident of pulling back the majority of these lost voters at a GE.”

I don’t think the Tories are sweating about the Euros quite as much as anyone else.
As said, the Tories uniquely have a protest party whom they can rely on to never harm them in a “proper” election.
The same can’t be said for Lab and Lib… for them, they can lose their support more chronically – even to the various little parties; especially when the Tories are able to project their main USP: competence.

The other two things the Tories have on their side is that people are less shocked by their claims, due to the ingrained prejudice/stereotype of your average Tory MP; and the other thing is that they’ve been through this before, and a while ago, so they are able to react far swifter because they understand the toxicity of the thing, and they can then imply that the other two have some catching up to do, which plays to their competence card.

Say what you like about the Tory front bench, they are still surfing this one far better than Labour; and I believe the LibDems are held back by Nick Clegg, because he’s too similar to Cameron, but nowhere near as slick.

By: Big Ben(edict) – for whom the bell tolls? « LGiU – the local democracy blog

Wed, 20 May 2009 10:34:45 +0000

[...] a situation similar to Le Pen’s success in French politics was a distinct possibility, with extremist parties coming in from the margins. [...]

By: John B Dick

John B Dick — Tue, 19 May 2009 19:57:05 +0000

“plasma TV screens vs moats -”

Surely moats are entirely justified security arrangements that those MPs who have the press on their doorsteps must wish they had.

Could the papers who disclose details of MP’s security not be charged under terrorism legislation?