ComRes also showing boost for others
16 May 2009
The figures for ComRes’s poll for the Independent on Sunday are out, and show topline figures (with changes from their last poll at the end of April) of CON 40%(-5), LAB 21%(-5), LDEM 18%(nc). Others enjoy the same sort of boost as in BPIX, which includes UKIP at 5%, Greens at 4% and the BNP at 3%.
John Rentoul’s report also says “Our poll also suggests that the minor parties are set to break records in the European elections next month” but I think he is referring to a question that found 43% agreeing that they were likely to vote for minor parties, rather than a proper European voting intention question.
Filed under: Communicate, Voting Intention
The ominous thing is that a lot of the UKIP support could be expected to go back to the Tories after the Euros are over. The Tories could be back in the mid 40′s by the autumn and if Labour haven’t recovered accordingly then we’re looking at a Canada 1993 scenario.
I took part in a YouGov poll on Thursday which asked voting intention questions for Westminster and Europe as well as questions about MPs expenses. I assumed this was for one of the Sundays but perhaps it was a private poll. Anyone know anything about this?
Polling was done on Wednesday and Thursday ie before the mortgage frauds were revealed.
Scottish split (usual caveats apply):
ComRes/IoS
Westminster voting intention – Scotland
(+/- change UK GE 2005)
SNP 30% (+12)
Con 26% (+10)
Lab 19% (-20) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LD 16% (-7)
Grn 3% (+2)
BNP 0% (n/c)
UKIP 0% (n/c)
oth 7%
Calling that “ominous” isn’t very impartial, Mr Impartial Observer
Detailed tables:
http://www.comres.co.uk/systems/file_download.aspx?pg=440&ver=1
canada 93 i don’t know of, but this is for sure if labour do not pick up soon brown or no brown they are on track to finish third in a UK GE in 2010 lib dems could hit 26% or higher if they play there cards right.
the swing from labour to tory is now 10.5% this month, compaired to 8.8% last month
current projected majority is for a conservative win with a majority of 144
CON 397
LAB 182
LD 41
OTH 30
monthly vote shere
CON 41.7 -1.4% on last month
LAB 23.2 -5.0% on last month
LD 18.2 -0.1% on last month
OTH 16.9 +6.5% on last month
in other word the others vote has come from all parties but labour have taken the biggest hit down 5% lib dems so far are mainly unaffected only down 0.1%, but it is still the case that i do not think this surge in the other vote can hold.
1. beacuse the tory leaders apoligy on TV will win back voters and his party has done more than lab or ld’s in this respect to clean his party up
2. when people get in the ballot box they change there minds this can lead to big swings back to party a-b-c or d on the night
3. things are slowing up in the mp’s nose in trough scandle and as politics returns to normal we will see the tory lead rising again to mid to high 40′s and if UKIP and BNP voters come back to the tories we could see a big jump in surport for the tories and maybe even a few more labour voters coming over to the lib dems and conservative brand
anyway ee you all later eurovision time
James,
I’m impartial because I just call it as I see it!!!!!
That’s my kinda impartiality
It’s their best hope…
http://blogs.dailyrecord.co.uk/frankieboyle/2009/05/labours-balls-up.html
If Others are at 21%, and it’s UKIP 5%, Green 4%, BNP 3% where are the other 9% voting ???
And it cannot be SNP/PC, unless they’re getting 80%+ in Scotland/ Wales.
Confused.
Crewegwyn – 5% of it is “other others”. It’s debateable how meaningful that is – since 2007 Populus have put people who said they’d vote for “another party” but didn’t know who in with “don’t knows” rather than down as unspecified others (though of course, at least some of the 5% will be people who named specific fringe parties – we don’t know)
I’d imagine the Monster Raving Loonies are doing pretty well out of this too, they might even get an MP returned, or at least save their deposit.
It could easily be that over the coming few weeks we will have a poll showing Labour and the Lib Dems in joint second place, or even Lib Dems ahead. This could prove very good for the Lib Dems and very dangerous for Labour.
This might give the Lib Dem the boost they need to propel them into a clear second place position in the Euro election and then the General Election!
It’s been 4 week since ICM’s last poll. Surely we should get a poll from them soon. And ICM tend to show a higher polling for the Lib Dems!!!
I suspect that if the Libdems overtake Labour for 3 or 4 polls in a row then they will start to do consistently better. However, winning more votes than Labour at the Election may be a possibility – winning more seats would be almost inconceivable.
@STUART DICKSON
Those Scotland numbers are incredible. -20 for Labour? They’ve really not liked the expenses.
Some of these projections are a bit overblown.
I think we need to see if it settles down – if it does that is, because the expenses damage to politics as a whole is serious and going to be quite long term.
I made a joke a few days ago about putting a bet on the Tories beating Labour in Scotland, and then I made an even more stupid prediction about the Tories beating the SNP. I can’t believe this poll is showing the Tories only 4% behind the SNP and 7% ahead of Labour. I should have placed that bet before this poll came out.
Neil,
Is David Sutch still going!
He won my Mothers vote in the sixties in Stratford on Avon!
Are they looking for Candidates?
Comres have a ridiculuously small sample in Scotland, hence we must treat it with caution.
Having said that, it would be fascinating to see a SNP vs Tory battle in Scotland. It would be great for the SNP.
@Laz Henson
Unfortunately, Screaming Lord Sutch died in 1999.
The disillusionment of the electorate is the price the politicians have paid for playing fast and loose with their expenses, our parliament and our political system. Paying back wrongly-claimed expenses is a start but it does not rectify the wrong; it is an act of contrition by some but more cynically, a desperate bid to hang on to their position by others. For many their days of holding public office are probably over. They find themselves at the mercy of the media and, more importantly, their constituencies. The way in which many MPs have manipulated and abused the system will remain in the memories of voters for a very long time, especially when so many people are finding it ever-harder to make a living. Perhaps it was the belief that their extravagance would be shielded from the public’s gaze, or the view that they were entitled to maximise their expenses because ‘the system’ allowed even encouraged it. Or perhaps as Oscar Wilde once pointed out that he could resist anything but temptation. The lure of all that easy money obviously proved just too tempting for many.
BNP were actually at 5% in BPIX poll