I’ve confirmed exactly what’s gone on with the YouGov poll on European voting intentions. The graphic in the Sun shows the voting intentions of all those who gave a voting intention. However, as we saw in YouGov’s last poll, YouGov’s preferred measure – the one they think will better reflect the actual result – is the voting intention of only those certain to vote, which were the figures in the Sun’s article.

So, the actual figures for European voting intention were CON 28%(-9), LAB 19%(-3), LDEM 19%(nc), UKIP 19%(+12!), GRN 6%(+2), BNP 3%(-1).


80 Responses to “Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP all on 19% in European poll”

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  1. @ Doonhammer
    “In England, we are seeing the same desertion but it is going to smaller parties in the absence of a single large minority party.”

    LibDems?

    Anthony, I agree it works rather well, but can you label the threads so I know which one to do my frothy rantings in without upsetting anyone?

  2. philipjw : Particularly in view of the fact that Populus polled just recently only 6% for Ukip 19% seems improbable. Certainly in the event of the Lib Dems equaling Labour in the Euro election they will not want it to be overshadowed by a very high score for UKip

    19% for UKIP is perfectly possible, seeing as they got 16% last time and beat the LibDems. A fringe party can easily surge from nowhere in this sort of election. But the election is still three weeks off, so they may have surged too early.

  3. Mark Senior
    You are perfectly correct. The Scottish subsets from UK polling are not reliable. They are however pounced upon by elements of the media when they provide a damaging figure for the SNP or for support for independence and virtually ignored if the opposite is the case. The most recent reliable polling on a large sample on a Scotland only basis was Sysem Three’s of three weeks ago. This put the SNP at 41% with Labour at 28% not far ahead of the Tories and the Libdems at 9%. This would suggest three SNP MEPs to two Labour and one Tory and no Scottish LibDem MEP. It also showed 42% favouring independence and 40% opposed.
    As expected the poll was virtually ignored by the “Scottish” media.

  4. I just did a sort of rough back-of-an-envelope calculation based on this poll and the 2004 result. Basically the Conservatives get 28 seats, UKIP/Lab/LibDems 14-16 each and Greens 2, BNP none. Not very exciting or meaningful, except that the Conservatives polled 26.7% in the 2004 euro election, meaning that the 28% poll rating they get here (and the apparent big drop in support) doesn’t seem so bad after all.

  5. Taken seperately, sub samples have a large margin or error. I do however think that sub samples can be viewed at indicating movement in a certain direction or not.

    If numerous subsamples in a short period of time show the same movement or similar numbers, I think you can take it that they indicate a direction.

  6. @Anthony – Doubt the source will be the telegraph for UKIP expense smears, but more about reusing old stories of past scandals etc (their record is rather poor) – accepted of course that they will most likely benefit greatly, but by god it would be a big story if even with these rechurned records they still get 3rd – labour in freefall

    @Anthony – Keep it too one thread, if you give us a place to rant, you take all the fun out of it :-) – I blame the system

  7. @Lee Moore

    Ukip’s 19% is also a massive 12 points up on what Yougov polled for them last time. But still I did not say impossible but merely improbable. And it is a valid point that Ukip gained 16% at the last election.

    My theory for the boost is that parties such as Ukip feed off cynicism, in particular cynicism of course regarding Europe. There was a lot of cynicism last time Ukip was doing well because of both Labour’s and the Cons’ support of the war in Iraq. But while the issue of MP’s making extravegant expense claims is an important issue it is no where on the scale of the war in Iraq.

    As you admitted they may have peaked too soon. There are another 20 days until the Euro election. News regarding MPs expenses will be old and have less of an impact. For most people this story simply has too much imformation and it’s shock value has almost already come to an end I think. The stories sicken me but I’m already getting sick of hearing about it.

    Most likely we will see UKIP gaining between 10% to 15% at the Euro election.

  8. David McEwan Hill,

    There is a separate thread for rants.

    Not sure what the figure was for the Conservatives in the System 3 poll, but assuming it was around 20% that would give 2 SNP; 2 Labour; 2 Conservative. If the SNP get 41% then to get a third seat the Conservatives would need to drop to about 13.5%, which is very unlikely. The most likely outcome in Scotland is 2:2:2, but the second Conservative seat would be more likely to fall to the Libdems than to the SNP.

  9. “There was a lot of cynicism last time Ukip was doing well because of both Labour’s and the Cons’ support of the war in Iraq”

    I’m sorry, but that is a load of cobblers. Those Labour and Conservative voters who were unhappy about the Iraq war would have been far more likely to vote Libdem, Green, or some other party than to vote UKIP. It might have had a small effect on the UKIP vote, but it wouldn’t have been significant.

  10. Shows how what the media focus on can make an impact – given that out of 12 UKIP elected MEPs, 1 is in jail for benefit fraud, and another is suspended and under investigation for money laundering, that’s a far worse proportion than the other parties of bad apples – yet they lack scrutiny and challenge, so people seem to feel safe going for them.

  11. It’s pretty damn obvious that BNP voters are shy about telling pollsters what they really think. Those of us who live in NI are well aware of the problem (the last opinion poll here published in the press had SDLP at 20% to SF’s 12% – massively undercounting the nationalist vote in general and also showing less than half of SF’s voters are keen to tell pollsters who they’re actually voting for). Pollsters in GB have never had to deal with a genuinely anti-system party whose voters know their vote would attract public opprobrium. In NI, we’re used to the problem to the extent that no-one takes opinion polls remotely seriously.

    I would, sadly, venture you guys on the other side of the Irish Sea are about to have your first experience of that. There’s no way the 2009 local by-elections don’t translate into a BNP Euro vote of 8-11%; I wonder how much of that UKIP surge is actually a shy BNP surge.

  12. Yes, I would have thought a party who called themselves the “UK independence party” would attract supporters in 2004 interested in getting out of Europe rather than Iraq. Unless those voters thought the “I” in UKIP stood for Iraq? Nah, as Neil said, the Libdems were banging on and on about that.

  13. ComRes poll for Newsnight (I think) finding that two thirds of the public wants a snap election.

  14. I agree with Neil and Keith. UKIP is an unlikely recipient of anti-Iraq war protest votes. It’s also slightly more than a cynics repository for protest votes. I suspect that more than half of Conservative general election supporters prefer UKIP’s policies to the Conservative party’s policies. If we had PR, I suspect the Conservatives would be quite vulnerable to competition from UKIP even at general elections.

  15. I agree with Anthony. I fully expect the BNP to poll in the 5-8% range, mainly from disaffected angry Labour voters.

    I am also coming round to the opinion that the current parliamentary crisis is a short term boon for Brown staying as leader. He now has the perfect excuse if Labour poll abysmally in the locals and euros that it is events beyond his or anyone else’s control which have affected them.

  16. I dotn know where people are coming from when they say BNP vote will go up from the 4.9% in 2004. It is perfectly clear it is collapsing 3% in the polls, and repeated exposes in the press

    There is no evidence from the past that their polling % differs much from their actualy vote- in 2004 they were polling 4% at opinion polls and polled 4.9% in reality

    I think 3.5% at present and no seats and this will probably drop over next few weeks

  17. Jim Page…

    Depends where you live… if you live in Beeston, South Leeds, they’re far from collapsing; if you live in Brighton, I doubt they’d even be a single sign of them.

  18. UKIP +12% and CON -9% ? We should call that populism… I always wonder what sort of voters can just change their mind like this, except somebody with no belief at all.
    On an other hand, it seems worrying to see the extend of the UKIP support while any other population in Europe seems to praise the EU in the current turmoil… I am puzzled.

    Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)> What does mean the bracket ?

  19. Anthony
    are we expecting any polls tomorrow?

  20. @ Vonric
    “I always wonder what sort of voters can just change their mind like this, except somebody with no belief at all.”

    Perhaps someone who evaluates each election on the situation at the time and each party’s policies, rather than someone who blindly follows an ideology? – i.e. a grown-up

  21. Pete:

    Maybe, but have 9% of the country suddenly changed their mind? For my money there’s no way 9% of the country are knife-edge Tory/UKIP voters and the situation has changed that much over a week.

  22. I would say that for the purposes of a European election there are at least 9% of voters who are undecided between Conservative/UKIP. If I lived in England I would be, but since I live in Scotland a vote for UKIP would be a vote for the Libdems, so I will vote Conservative.

  23. No I don’t believe 9% of the voting public are that undecided between the Tories and UKIP that we would see that swing in a single week. But what you have to consider is that the electorate as a whole do not see the European elections as having any effect in terms of governance, so they are seen as the perfect opportunity to make some kind of protest.

  24. @Neil

    I admit that what I said does not appear logical regarding the Iraq war and UKIP’s relatively good result last time. However, neither is a 12% boost for UKIP. It reflects a naive emotional response to the present situation. Not everyone is as logical as you and I :-)

  25. I think it’s explained by two things:

    1) Anger with the mainstream parties over expenses

    2) UKIP is widely seen as a single issue party. A lot of people agree or partly agree with its stance on the EU and will vote accordingly in the European elections where the EU is to the fore. But when it comes to a general election, UKIP’s single issue focus works against it and its voters peel away to other parties.

  26. Neil

    I have some difficulty recognising what part of my post it isd that you describe as a “rant” – unless of course you consider all opinion and all fact that doesn’t please you as rants.

  27. “The Scottish subsets from UK polling are not reliable. They are however pounced upon by elements of the media when they provide a damaging figure for the SNP or for support for independence and virtually ignored if the opposite is the case.”

    Perhaps rant was a bit strong – but it did have shades of Chris Neweyism.

  28. I expect that the turnout will be higher than expected as voters take the chance to express their opinion.

    In turn I would expect the smaller parties to benefit.

    I would also expect an increase in ‘votes not counted’ as people write in ‘none of the above’ or something like it, or ruder. The count should be interesting

    Barry

  29. Barry, with at least 10 options to choose from (19 in London) why should anyone having made the effort to go to the polling station only to spoil their ballot paper ?

    If turnout is much above 30%, then there will be a high vote for the numerous minor parties.

    My guess is +/-28% for Con, and +/- 17% each for Lab & LD leaving 35-40% for others (incl UKIP).

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