UKIP surge in the wake of expenses expose
There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sun with Westminster and European voting intentions, both of which are striking in their own way.
The Westminster voting intentions, with changes from YouGov’s last poll, are CON 41%(-2), LAB 22%(-5), LDEM 19%(+1). Populus’s poll on Monday evening was taken after the Telegraph’s expenses expose had begun, but this is the first poll taken when people had really had chance to digest it (and the first to come after Tory expenses exposes really began to run). Once again both main parties have suffered, but Labour have clearly come off worse. This is their lowest rating in any national opinion poll, ever. It is also the lowest gap between Labour and the Liberal Democrats for years. It is worth considering that YouGov normally give the Liberal Democrats their lowest ratings – if this poll had been carried out by ICM we might very well be looking at a poll with Labour in third place.
The maths of the poll suggest that there must also have been a significant increase in support for “other” parties, though from the Sun’s report we can’t tell who has been the beneificiary of that.
Moving to the European voting intentions, the topline figures with changes from before the expenses expose began are CON 28%(-9), LAB 19%(-3), UKIP 19%(+12!) – the Sun report does not provide the Liberal Democrat or Green figures, but the BNP remain at 4%, unchanged from a week ago. It appears that UKIP – despite their MEPs own problems with fraud and expenses, have been the overwhelming victors from the expenses row.
UPDATE: Uncertainty about the actual European figures. UKIP are no longer mentioned in the Sun article, and while the article itself still says Labour are at 19%, the accompanying graphic shows them at 20%, with UKIP at 15% and the Lib Dems at 19%. I’ll go and find out the true figures!
Filed under: Europe, Voting Intention, YouGov
YIKES!
Someone in the national media need to show that UKIPs MEP’s have been the biggest abusers of expenses over the last 4 years, – with 20% of their MEPs going to prison.
A week is a long time in politics – I seriously doubt UKIP will get anywhere near this come polling day.
BBC news has just reported Labour launched their EU campaign with an anouncement that they are most worried about the BNP – A bit counterproductive!
Prediction:
Labour – 19%
Conservative – 34%
Lib D – 16%
BNP – 13%
UKIP – 10%
Green – 5%
Others – 3%
It looks to me as if somebody at William Hill had got wind of this poll if there odds today are anything to go by. To suggest that UKIP are the most corrupt of parties in the EP is rather a misnomer. Ashley Mote never even took his seat as a UKIP MEP, he was thrown out as soon as his fraudulent activities were brought to light. Tom Wise ripped of £6000 quid to buy a second hand brown Peugot estate. He too was thrown out, even though he paid the money back and apologised.
Now lets think, Den Dover, it took a while didn’t it. Giles Chichester is still there.. No doubt Mr Cameron thinks that is a bit of Whoops-a-Daisy.
This poll may be a rogue, but it is born out by UKIP canvasing in the last week.
The feedback we are getting is mostly former Labour and non voters coming to join us, which bears out the suggestion that the BNP is not capitalising on the morass that is the three man parties.
[Edited - Libellous comment deleted - AW]
Sighs of relief from Cameron Central than their GE vote seems to be more or less steady. Cameron’s actions in the wake of Hogg’s moat may have minimized the hit. Terrible result for Labour and Brown’s position looks even shakier.
I think UKIP will do very well. Your’ll see what I mean next week . Wink !
What this shows, I think, is that come what may, the public are pretty much determind the Conservatives under David Cameron will form the next government.
As far as the Euro Poll goes, it does look like UKIP are the big winners, but given what we’re seeing in the Westminster poll, I have a feeling a lot of that UKIP support could easily go back to the Tories, if the oublic decides that will send the greatest message to Labour. So, if I was Labour I wouldn’t rely on UKIP has an amazing result at the expense of the Tories – It will depend how much more comes out in the expenses stuff, and how many more Conservatives are implicated.
The UKIP figure is rather high and the BNP figure rather low – I wonder how many people are giving UKIP as their answer as a disguise when they’re really thinking about voting BNP.
Is there any information about whether this poll showed a lower turnout is likely?
I don’t know whether YouGov apply a likelihood to vote filter, but if they do, perhaps the Labour figure is distorted by abstentions.
David Cameron has responded pretty effectively to this, but I don’t think any party is in a position to be too smug about all this.
I’m a Tory supporter, but would like to see at least two of these people deselected.
I’ve just seen Sir Ming Campbell jeered on Question Time,
and – it would appear – the ratio of UKIP MEPs with expenses issues is high.
For what it’s worth, Sir Ming’s case seemed fairly minor, and I think he was possibly justified in some upkeep of his London flat.
I am still sceptical whether UKIP (which is shambles these days from what I hear), can mount a campaign, but I might be wrong.
But it looks like both main parties are going to get a hammering in the Euro elections.
Yes – Apparently 1/3 of UKIP MEPs have left or been kicked out for fraud.
That’s one of the reason I would not vote UKIP. Another reason would be their complete failure to do anything constructive in the last 10 years of having MEPs, the last 5 years with TWELVE MEPs.
I am seriously considering to give the BNP a chance this year – and I still think they will beat UKIP in all regions apart from the SE and SW.
one of the reasons people don’t say thay are voting BNP is that they will be tard with the your a rasist flag most of the people i know will be voting BNP on june 4th i won’t be but it depends on how things pan out and yes i still think camoron will recover the 3 or 4pts hes lost in the polls by the time the locas are over but he will need to do more if he wants to reach 40% in the EU elections maybe sack a few more mp’s should do it or tell all of his mp’s NO MORE! you will only be paid for your job not your:
1. home
2. travel
3.second home
4. campaining
and you will be limited to just £2000 per year for office expensses and thats it he would win with a big big landslide
The problem is people have always thought European politics were pretty dodgy with regard to things like expenses, etc, so the fact that UKIP MEPs might have been involved in that sort of thing doesn’t really damage them much. People had higher expectations of Westminster where the minor parties obviously aren’t represented.
right before i go sleep hear is the updated monthly totals:
CON 42.0% -1.1 (on last month)
LAB 24.5% -3.7 (on last month)
LD 19.0% +0.7 (on last month)
OTH 14.5% +4.1 )on last month)
swing from lab to con 1.3% since april 09
swing from lab to LD 2.2% since april 09
swing from con to LD 0.9% since april 09
swing to OTH: con 2.6%, lab 3.9%, LD 1.8%
predicted seats next election: MAY TOTALS
CON 389
LAB 189
LD 41
OTH 31
overall swing on last GE 10.0% from lab to con
conservative majority 128
all in all to tories hav gone up but there vote has gone down, labour are in deep s*** and will keep going down if things continue the lib dems are about solid on 19%, the other factor at work will be the floating voter, the liberal minded chap you see every day who always looks at policy not party if he or she thinks non of them can be trusted then all will suffer, but i still think the tories will be the next govenment of the UK. labour are dead. i can see the next election being a 1930’s type election where the votes put a govenment out for a long long time.
prediction:
labour to lose another 2pts by end of month
conservatives to gain 1pt by end of month
lib dems to gain 2pts by end of month
others to lose 1pt by end of month
NET
CON 43%
LAB 23.5%
LD 21%
OTH 13.5%
I think we can be pretty sure now that current Tory support is not “soft” and the mantra from some Labour MPs and pro-Labour columnists that “Cameron has not yet convinced the voters” is a hollow one.
Extraordinary result for UKIP – but will it be reproduced on the day? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Brown must surely be ousted before too long. As Charlie Brooker put it, it’s like watching a car crash in slow motion.
the question who wold take the job on i agree he won’t survive but which Labour MP hs the guts to go down as the shortest term as PM ever
Weighted Moving Average 42:25:19 and this tends to confirm my view that the Populus poll was somewhat adrift. The Lab-LibDem WMA gap is now the smallest ever and (as I have remarked before) the real possibility of Labour being eclipsed by the LibDems grows apace. If Brown soldiers on until May 2010 I’d put the chance of the LibDems replacing Labour at about 40%.
The Electorate are in a vengefull mood.
Anything can happen.
The BNP are racist is by any normal use of the word. Nick Griffin for example thinks inter-racial sex can never be normal and moral and wants to ban it.. He clearly tries to hide his real views. In fact he openly says he is hiding his real views for electoral purposes. Most people don’t want a racist imigration policy based on returning people to their country of ethnic origin (BNP website) or paying “a six figure sum” for people to voluntary emigrate (Giffin quoted in the Times). The UKIP posiiton is far nearer to the public mood, so not surprisingly they are benefiting.
I think that those who doubt the UKIP share are wrong. I don’t think it’s people wanting to say BNP but fearing being labelled a racist. Very few people are racist enough to vote for the BNP and I think they’ll struggle to get their share of the vote above 4%.
There’s a common misconception that UKIP is the BNP by another name. UKIP categorically states that it is not a racist or fascist political party. What they have in common is a single defining issue. For the BNP it’s race and returning the UK to a state of racial homogeneity, something that is a fallacy because we’ve had immigration throughout our history. For UKIP it’s withdrawal from the EU. UKIP does not favour the repatriation of immigrants already here, just a tougher immigration policy to reduce (not end) new immigration. One has to take what they say in policy documents at face value because they’ve not been tested.
I think that UKIP’s vote share in this poll has jumped because people have known about the European gravy train for ages and it’s a gut reaction to say, “We end it by leaving the EU.” If UKIP got their way, no one seems to have asked what we do next.
I think that polls can actually create events. If UKIP can get this poll enough publicity, I think they could start a bandwagon. There might be a freak result on June 4th of UKIP 35%, Conservative 28%, Lib Dems 18%, Labour 12%, Others 7%. I’m not predicting this but just saying that it could be a possible outcome if UKIP use the poll to their advantage. I do, however, think that there’s a very real possibility that Labour may finish behind the Liberal Democrats both on June 4th and in next year’s general election.
I also watched Question time last night, for Ming to spend £1.500 redecorating a flat after 10 years seems a small sum and was probably needed,compared to the Tory and Labour MPs making profits on their first and second homes or castles.
We now have to see how the DT treats UKIP MEPs
fraud. I doubt it will even be mentioned as the DT favour us leaving Europe.
I must say I do feel for Gordon Brown. The poor man must be on the verge of a nervous breakdown by now.
Not sure about all this increased support for UKIP. An instant gut reaction I feel that will doubtless calm over the next week or two.
They have, however, mounted quite an effective campaign so far with the posters and leaflets with Churchills pic on them. Very stirring!
I’ll still be giving the Cons the benefit of the doubt this time but I have not been happy with the total lack of any visible campaign from them. Saving their dough for the ‘big one’ I guess?
I think the European voting intention figures you quote may be wrong. The Sun article only gives the figures CON 28% and LAB 19%: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2430063.ece
Whereas the figures on the graphic are as follows:
CON 29%, LAB 20%, LDEM 19%, UKIP 15%, GREEN 6%, SNP/PC 4%, BNP 3% and Other 1%.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2430063.ece?enlargePopup=true&imageId=803956
“The UKIP figure is rather high and the BNP figure rather low – I wonder how many people are giving UKIP as their answer as a disguise when they’re really thinking about voting BNP.”
These are my thoughts too, Andy. Thinking further I just wonder if it is possible that BNP MEP’s might be treated on the european mainland as was the dutch MEP, Wim Wilkes by Britain a few months ago. After all they are the NPD’s sister party and the NPD is on the verge of being banned in Germany because of their views.
Charles Stuart. I am lucky enough to live in a beautiful and affluent part of the world. I know a number of people here (not me) who will vote BNP at the euro elections only and would certainly not say so to a pollster or anyone else they did not trust to keep their mouths shut. The demonisation of the BNP (whether justified or not) has this effect on what people will say. Don’t know about numbers, of course, but do not rule out “shy BNPers”
BNP must be in tears today. Third poll showing they are getting nowhere and vote is down on 2004
People who are worried about expenses are hardly going to vote for a Nazi Party in protest
Griffin must be planning his exist strategy already
The big issue in these upcoming European elections is whether the British people are happy with the huge loss of national sovereignty to Brussels to the point where now almost three quarters of the laws coming before our national parliament arise there and cannot be amended by Westminster. For me personally the huge additional loss of sovereignty which will arise as a result of the Lisbon Treaty, the fact that it was rammed through parliament through the power of party whips, and the only very feeble opposition to it from the Conservatives, led me to switch support from the Conservatives to UKIP. I know about the problems UKIP had with 3 of their MEPs elected at the last European elections: one (Ashley Mote) was immediately ejected from the UKIP when it became known that he had been involved in benefits fraud and never took up his seat in the European parliament; the prima donna Robert Kilroy Silk took himself off in a huff and founded a party of his own when the then UKIP leadership (rightly) did not immediately make him leader of the party; and one (Tom Wise) was indeed involved in a fiddle of his MEP expenses and when this became clear was turfed out of UKIP. So allegations that 20% of UKIP MEPs have been involved in fiddling their MEP expenses is completely untrue). I am impressed by the calibre of the 2 peers who left the Conservatives to join UKIP (Lord Pearson and Lord Willoughby de Broke), who are men of the highest integrity, and also by the fact that the party treasurer and No 2 UKIP candidate in the South East is Marta Andreasen, who is the EU’s former chief accountant, who was sacked because she attempted to sort out the fraud involved in the EU accounts (which means that they have not been signed off by auditors for more than 13 years).
When opinion polls show that 55% of the British population would like to negotiate a simple free trade arrangement with the EU and nothing else, which is exactly UKIP’s policy, then I am not in the least surprised that this poll shows UKIP support is at 19%. It has the potential to grow much, much higher.
You need to amend your story. It’s the Lib Dems on 19% in the Sun’s Euro poll not UKIP.
Could this be good news for Labour? Whether UKIP are at 19% or 15% it’s still a big result for them, and if they were to get a good 4th place or even beat the Lib Dems again it could be a springboard for a GE showing of a good few % more than expected, these votes would surely come from the Tories right?
It must be said, even if this is a roque poll, Labour support is dropping faster than I even expected.
@ Ivan the Terrible
“I must say I do feel for Gordon Brown. The poor man must be on the verge of a nervous breakdown by now.”
Really? Did you feel for him when he was stabbing Tony Blair in the back? Did you feel for him when he was telling us about prudence, responsibility and boom and bust? Did you feel for him when he ruined the Nations finances to build his own client state? Don’t you think that this really is the case of just deserts????
This poll feels right given recent events. Contrary to Oliver, all the past indications from Euroelections are that the Other vote will hold up during the Eurocampaign.
Given discussion on this site in the past about breaking down the Other figures, it is good to see that “The Sun” have got round to doing this.
Much will depend upon how the “Other” vote splits regionally. It is unclear whether the BNPand UKIP polls will be spread evenly or regionally focussed. There is some reason to believe that the UKIP vote will be concentrated, particularly for the Euroelections, in the South (including South-East and South-West) whereas disaffected voters in the North think of the BNP before UKIP (however different the two parties claim to be). Which of course increases the likelihood that these parties will get MEPs, or more MEPs (however undesirable or otherwise you may think this).
It is perhaps surprising that most, perhaps almost all, of the disaffected Labour move to other seems to be goings rightwards, not to the Greens. One wonders why. However, “The Sun”’s suggestion that 6% are planning to vote Green in the Euroelections, as opposed to 3% in a General Election, would very probably be enough to get their current MEPs re-elected given an incumbency effect and probable regional concentration of the Green vote.
@ Quincel – it’s not a given that the increase in the UKIP vote has come at the expense of the Tories. There’s been a lot of talk in recent months about how the BNP is winning some support away from Labour and it may well be that, as others have suggested, UKIP is starting to reap those angry voters who feel abandoned by the mainstream parties but can’t quite bring themselves to vote BNP.
@ Quincel – it’s not a given that the increase in the UKIP vote has come at the expense of the Tories. There’s been a lot of talk in recent months about how the BNP is winning some support away from Labour and it may well be that, as others have suggested, UKIP is starting to reap those angry voters who feel abandoned by the mainstream parties but can’t quite bring themselves to vote BNP.
P.S. – Sorry, forgot to tell you great post!
re the BNP, we all know about the “shy tory” factor and what is done to raw polling data in order to take account of it. To me it seems reasonable there is a “shy BNP voter” factor too, as I’m not sure some people would readily admit to supporting them even now, although how much we’ll have to find out in upcoming elections.
Anyone who looks at the BNP and UKIP in depth can see that they are at heart very different parties. However, does the electorate at large know that?
After all UKIP have attracted some fringe types over the years who have said some ugly stuff. A faction tried to engineer an electoral pact with the BNP a few months back and my guess is that UKIP has been infiltrated, at least in part, by the ultra right.
I think that in some sections of the electorate the two parties are seen as one, especially now that the BNP has cleaned up its public image a bit. Will those in the ‘north’ who voted UKIP in 2004 vote BNP in 2009?
On the other hand, does anyone have any data to show which demographics tend to vote UKIP? After all the stereotype of a UKIP voter in older, lower middle class and more rural, as opposed to BNP which is urban, working/underclass and younger.
Mind you the BNP has been making inroads into the grey and middle class vote. They have polled surprisingly well in areas like Cumbria, north Wales, rural Derbyshire and Kent.
Frederic Stansfield. Exactly. Do we know in which areas UKIP is getting this support? I don’t suppose the BNP could care less if UKIP are racking it up in the South of England, but not in the North, Wales and Midands. It does matter very much to the big three, particularly the Lib Dems. Will there be data about this from this poll?
These results are encouraging for UKIP, but shouldn’t be a great surprise. After all in the 2004 elections UKIP got 16% of the vote overall and came second in 4 regions: East Midlands (26% of the vote); South West (22.56%); Eastern (19.6%) and South East (19%).
I don’t know if there is any data to give an accurate breakdown of UKIP voters but my experience of UKIP shows that it is now attracting a good many young supporters (see the list of MEP candidates and the strength of Young Independence) and it has a huge class spread (again, look at the list of MEP candidates). I don’t think there is such a thing as a stereotypical UKIP voter, other than the fact that we all want to reinstate the sovereignty of Westminster, rather than Brussels.
I think my own voting intentions in the next election help to explain the surge in support for UKIP. I am a true blue Tory but will vote UKIP in June. I don’t really care that UKIP have had some dodgey representatives I simply want to show how much I hate the EU. As someone who runs a small business, I know how much legislation from the EU comes our way and is ruthlessly enforced here and studiously ignored elsewhere in Europe.
I also want the other parties to have a really bad night. I work 100 hours a week and am furious that my taxes are helping to fund the champagne lifestyle of MPs of all parties. At a general election I will return to the Tories.
The media never give UKIP a fair press. Our middle class left leaning broadcast media sneer at them as little Englanders or else portray them as dangerous fanatics. The craven BBC journalists have never had the courage to take on this Government’s most corrupt activities and worse have been cheeleaders for much of it. It took the old reactionary Telegraph to blast through the lies and deceit.
So come June, God bless UKIP and let’s stick two fingers up to the EU and Westmineter.
Antony – Aren’t you going to do anything regarding Brett’s extremly biast comments?
I do find it odd that the supposed high financial probity of UKIP and BNP are reasons they are being given support. The obvious reason they are not being tarred by the MPs expences is that they have no MPs. If they did have MPs, it seems hard to believe they would not be in the same situation as everyone else.
I personally believe this wave of supoort for minor parties will disipate considerably over the next two weeks before the elections (which is a long time) providing the worst of the expences scandal is over. It is asking a lot for UKIP and others to sustain this massively inflated level of support for any length of time.
Exactly, Hardpressed. All UKIP is asking is “lend us your vote” for the European elections. And I agree about the mainline media not giving UKIP a fair chance. That is why the internet is so important as a means of trying to get the message across. Have a look at Nigel Farage’s clips on YouTube or another MEP candidate, Philip Vander Elst, speaking on the loss of democracy resulting from our membership of the EU.
Having said that about the mainstream media though I should add that Nigel Farage is on Any Questions tonight.
LUKW: why should this support for UKIP be massively inflated? Look at the figures for the 2004 results I have given in a post above.
I should call myself “The Oracle”. I have been predicting for some time that UKIP would do better than a lot of people expect – and more recently I have also been predicting that they would be the biggest beneficiaries of the expenses thing. I don’t see them retaining 12 seats, but anything can happen.
I have also predicted for a long time that June 4th will be a defining moment in this parliament, even more so than the budget – and that if things go badly for Labour then heads will roll over the summer – pretty big heads.
I fully expected Labour to dip to the very low 20s, but I expected it to be after June 4th – the expenses event obviously changed the dynamics a bit.
This is not the place for a debate on UKIP’s policy, comments about vote lending which affects the polls are fine of course.
ITT – I got your Irony.
@Neil
I shake your hand… I am not anti-UKIP, but I thought they were in real trouble; it couldn’t be more the reverse. …having said that it’s not really through their own efforts, all their hard work seems to be being done for them by the witches of westminster.
“Labour on 22%”, “Labour on 19%”
It’s just beautiful… I’m weeping tears of joy!
I don’t think anyone really knows where this is going… it’s a lot like the financial crisis in that respect.
It could be one of the most exciting times in politics for… ever?!
I don’t think anyone expected the expenses row to blow up this big this quickly, and it’s turning into a political avalanche.
I don’t think I’d be brave enough to put money on any result in any of the elections over the next 12 months.
So many possibilities are around now, maybe any one of us could stand for election as an independent and have as much chance as any of the old parties.
I suppose one possible outcome could be a hung parliament of a never-before seen configuration of MPs, with a real chance of a new type of voting system in order to combat voter apathy …hell we could be living in a republic by next summer at this rate!
Well, I have been suggesting for a long time that there would be closening of the gap between Labour and the Lib Dems!
@Richard Whelan,
On May 10th I responded to your question at some length regarding what I thought about the possiblity of the Lib Dems overtaking Labour in the polls. Please acknowledge whether you have read it.
Since then I noticed that the Lib Dems climbed 4 points in 4 months from Feb 2005 to the election in May 2005 – 19 points to 23 points. Examine the data carefully and you will see what I mean.
Therefore we have a presedence that gives hope to the possiblity that Lib Dems could rise to do better than Labour in terms of voting percentage, whether that would work out to be more seats is a very tricky question that I am unable to answer.
In the light of today’s poll with Lib Dems on 19 and Labour on 22 this statistic of a late 4 point improvement gives particular hope to this possibility.
@Josh
There is no such thing as the “ultra right” …unless you mean the Sith Party (out of Star Wars).
@chris
You may not like Brett’s statements, but they appear factually accurate, so they cannot be described as biased. Brown did stab Blair (if not in person, then through a decade of McPoison’s slime), Brown did lecture us about prudence while operating a spendthrift policy.
So yes, when the chickens come home to roost, surely is is just deserts for the sub-Prime Minister.
I suggest that before complaining about the mote in another’s eye, you remove the plank from your own eye.
This thread seems to be a sounding board for right wing malcontents.
I thought it used to be about opinion polls?
You can’t have it both ways – either Gordon Brown is responsible for the state of economic affairs and saving (or not) the world, or Brussels has taken all our Sovereignty and poor gordon is presiding over nothing more than a trumped up Parish Council.
Wake up little England, wake up!
@Cynosarges – i’m afraid it’s not fact but merely the cliche’d ramblings on Mail/Express sheep led simpletons.
No Denis,
One of the two good things Gordon Brown has ever done was preventing the EU from taking control of our economy (the other was giving independence to the BoE on interest rates). For all that, he ruined our economy more than the EU’s wildest dreams. The fact remains that the EU now has considerably more sovereignty over British affairs than the UK government does.
So far we have seen damage to all the major parties, with their leaders attempting damage limitation of varying degrees of effectiveness. However, there is one prominent MP, who has made a large number of expense claims that would be considered unacceptable in the the current climate (e.g. £4,000 of taxi bills, including many for his wife!), who The Telegraph has not focussed on yet – Michael Martin.
Furthermore while Gordon Brown has openly stated his support for Martin, a Tory MP has submitted a motion calling on Martin to resign, making the vote on Martin newsworthy.
Is there a skeleton in Martin’s closet waiting to be released once the more porcine MPs have voted to support the head pig? If so, will Martin be sacrificed, or will those who voted for him suffer a bad hit?
@Denis
I don’t think anyone you’d describe as a “right-winger” is particularly malcontented at the moment; but it’s worth saying that there is no such thing as a the “right wing” anyway… there is also no such thing as “little england”.
It is possible for Dr Brown to be largely responsible for:
a. mismanaging the economy (and implying he was an economics sage) by seeming to advocate avaricious perpetual high growth built on debt; and,
b. mismanaging our relationship with the EU as a way of covering up economic mismanagement – e.g.: by facilitating unprecedented immigration in order to sustain the bubble, and keeping us locked into agreements that prevent us from being able to navigate our way through the choppy seas… the EU is having similarly restrictive effects on other EU states, including Germany.
The obvious solution for most EU states is to scrap the EU, and all join EFTA instead, and simply have a flexible, yet cooperative trading organisation, without the expensive bureaucrats and the constant conveyerbelt of homogenising pseudo-democratic diktats.
It’s accurate to say that polls have consistently shown for years that this is the sort of thing that people want, and I think it would be disingenuous to class any surge in UKIP and other non-Europhile parties (and I think the Greens and BNP also fall into this category) as simply a protest against westminster; the evidence is there that a different, looser relationship with the EU is desired by the majority of the public… this has been the case as long as I can remember (and I first became eurosceptic as a kid at school watching the betrayal of the Maastrict Treaty being signed).
It is legitimate to discuss the factors influencing polls; otherwise this would just be a page full of statistical maths and academic stuff…
@chris
The “ramblings” about McPoisons operations on behalf of Brown over the last decade have been reported by the entire press, so an attempted denigration by describing them as “Mail/Express” can only be described as delusional.
Furthermore, as I pointed out last time, if you start with honest debt figures, adjusting correctly for PFI and quango debt which is ultimately guaranteed by the government, then you will see that Brown has never been prudent. The simpletons are those who accept the ONS figure without even reading the disclaimer a few lines below.
@Neil – They have been shocking and appalling but how the Cons have benefited from this beggers believe – I mean how can Cameron play the leader when he couldn’t even get his part-time MP’s to call time on their 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc jobs? The best example of the free ride Cameron is enjoying from our right-wing media.
Cameron would have surley known about his party’s expenses last week but waited for them to made public to act morally outraged!!! He either hoped they wouldn’t be published or has carefully orchastrated his response with the Torygraph. Speaks volumes on this media PR driven amature who we’re in real danger of electing as PM. I think his proposals are typical of his parties very little detail and just empty headline grabbing initiatives.
Perphaps it’s what this country needs is a bout of Con government just to remind them how bad things actually were with them, will be a painful experience but probably useful.
@Cynosarges – your ‘Mcpoision’ comment clearly puts you in the said catagory of Mail/Express simpletons.
@Chris
There are no ramblings there; no cliches; and it’s not content simply from two particular newspapers.
The problem is that Labour and their vapid-eyed zealots will never accept or concede that they’re wrong, or take any responsibility for anything they do.
Gordon has fostered that culture… epitomised by the “I take full responsibility, I’m sacking someone else” line… and now exemplified by most of those MPs found out with “I made a mistake, it’s those naughty rules that are to blame”.
I get more reason out of my 5-year-old.
It’s classic cut and dry scapegoating (you know, when the priests of antiquity would put all their sins on the back of a goat and give it a kick to take all their sins away, and carry on as normal – to give a summary of the etymology)
Is everyone who now opposes them a “simpleton”?
Isn’t it actually more accurate to say that that that comment typifies the contempt with which those heretics outside the cult are held?
I know where the sheep are, and they’re just as likely to find their noses buried in a copy of the Guardian or Independent. (you know, the “goodies” newspapers).
[...] latest YouGov poll is terrible news for Labour – their lowest ever poll [...]
Don’t know why people consider Blair better than Brown. Blair was just as bad, only he had the sense to jump ship before everything crashed around his ears.
Also I find the UKIP’s campaign, using Churchill imagery, amusing. Did no one think to tell them that Churchill wanted a ‘United States of Europe’?
Chris,
“I mean how can Cameron play the leader when he couldn’t even get his part-time MP’s to call time on their 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc jobs?”
Second jobs ain’t theft from the taxpayer my friend. No way near.
Indeed It is my opinion that had some of Labours leading lights had a little more ‘real world’ experience to call upon they wouldn’t have made quite such a mess over the last couple of years as they have.
…but that’s why they’re in that party anyway I guess;
‘From each according to his ability, to each according to his need’. Proper Commies really. No ability but still expect to get paid handsome for it!
@Chris – your comments are making you look ridiculously partisan.
McPoison was the nickname virtually everyone in Westminster knew of and used. He was given it by Labour MPs because of all the intercine briefing he did against members of his own party!
Anyway cheer up, you’re still above 20% (though not in the Euros).
@Ivan – I disagree putting half, a third, a 10th of your time as an MP I regard as theft from the taxpayer.
‘Indeed It is my opinion that had some of Labours leading lights had a little more ‘real world’ experience’ oh yes this old chestnut!! Funny how this real world experience is PAID on behalf of multi-national banking merchants or tabacco companies – not much voluntary or charity work there for their real world experiences!
Oh Billy – not the “Churchill advocated the EU” nonsense again!! Everyone knows that Churchill was referring to a primarily military co-operation to counter Russia – something like NATO. No doubt he would also have been very much for close trading relations within Europe, but to suggest that he would have approved of the loss of sovereignty we are seeing, or a federal Europe, is fatuous, and frankly dishonest. He would be nothing other than appalled.
As opposed to some of the rants from the other side…
There are times when I know it is pointless trying to impose the comments policy on threads and you may as well just let people let off steam. This is one of them.
Don’t get into bad habits though, I’m going to be strict in the next thread.
I was struck last night by the audience reaction to Ming Campbell on QT, I am not an LD but what he was not listened to fairly and is clearly a decent man.
Beckett then got booed for doing what Cameron has done, take the full 24K allowance as IMornterest payments.
Cameron has played the expenses row better than Brown but after the real baddies have been dealt with (Mc Kay, Moran Malek) epect a focus on the leaders claims.
Will Cammo look so good then?
Why has this site been allowed to be over run by rabib right-wingers that cry foul other any comment that doesn’t fit their Mail/Express veted opinions?
Antony – sort it out!
Trust in the banking system has collapsed. The political system is collapsing. The old certainties are gone. The far left must be kicking themselves they weren’t in any position to capitalise.
What we’re seeing now could be the biggest change in British politics since the emergence of the Labour Party, but I dare say Labour won’t figure much in the next chapter
@Chris
You seem far more rabid than anyone else on here
Do you really expect a friendly response when you insist on using the cliched epithet of “Daily Mail/Express” reader?
People not only have different opinions from you; but also have the right to express them… what’s most telling is that you seem desperate to censor any opinion that differs from your own.
Labour and their advocates might do well to reflect upon the idea that many who oppose them are not necessarily pro-Tory, or “right-wing”.
I dislike Labour because I’m a northern working-class socialist; and I regard New Labour and the EU as F ascist plutocratic anti-democratic organisations.
“our right-wing media.”
what, like the BBC?!
What I notice is that there are a number of people who seem to be like you who seem to think that the internet is full of “Daily Mail readers”, and that this is due to some conspiracy going on distorting the true spread of opinion that requires a McCarthy-esque investigation; as opposed to thinking that a sea-change in public opinion has taken place that has been facilitated by the growth in internet access in which your views, which may well be the establishment views of the “left-wing media”, “political class”, and “public service mandarins” have become minority views, because the asymmetrical structures of public discourse that used to allow the establishment to say “most British people think…” have now been disestablished by the internet.
Rather than crying foul, your camp ought to be eating some humble pie, and going back to the drawing board, reflecting on the public mood, and reappraising your ideology and mode of expression, and then trying to win back support (if you can) through debate on a level-playing field, rather than through censorship.
Antony is right to allow *some* discussion, because the currents of discussion in and around the polls is all part of the polling process: they are the products of discussion.
@Neil and Billy:
It appears you know more about this than I do, but didn’t archive files recently show that post-WW2 Churchill and De Gaule considered a merger of the UK and France?
Chris – see my comment above, this thread is unsalvagable. Sensible discussion will be restored elsewhere.
Quincel – yes, this was discussed, but I think it was during, not after WWII (could be wrong on that). Of course they could not agree on the terms – good job too!
I’m not saying Churchill was perfect – I think he was much too pro-French – but saying that, he was a great statesman, probably the greatest ever, and to try to tag him onto EUphilia is a gross injustice and distortion of history.
Unsalvagable I like that.
I guess this gives a green light to be partisan something I try to avoid normally , it would be discourtious of me not to accept Anthony’s invitation.
Brown is a big disapointment to many Labour supporters who genuinely felt he was more substantial than Blair. Indeed committed Brownites will blame Blair for not going early enough and there is some truth in this.
As a leftie I am not scared by Cameron as he is too timid to change the new consensus around Public Services, he does not herald a change back to Thatcherism.
He is though Vaccuous and Osborne is worse. Labour though will not get another chance in 14/15 as the public will want to punish them at least twice.
Forget the LD’s becoming the second party they have no soul and there are enough Labour sympathises who do.
I do not think that the domination on this site of right wingers (some very right wing) and anti-Europeans represents a new democratic M.O outside the mainstrean media allowing the people to assert their real view.
What it does demonstrate is that right wingers are hungrier having been out of power to get involved and are (reasonably) looking forward to being in power.
In short right wingers are more likley to go on a web-site and john a thread which shows a good position for than left-wingers who see the opposite, only natural.
In all honest Cameron an insubstantial PR slick salesman and will achieve little of consequence, no Thatcher, Even Tories will despair of him once the gratitude period for winning a elcetion has expired.
@Chris
If you read The Guardian, you will find Michael White, Andrew Sparrow, Jackie Ashley, Nicholas Watt, Oliver Marre, James Robinson all used McPoison to describe McBride. And not only since his latest piece of slime came to public notice. I refer you to a Michael White headline, 4 Dec 07 Meet ‘McPoison’ – the prime minister’s new spin meister.
So I suggest you actually think before you write. Do you really believe that all these political commentators write for the Mail/Express? Slime is slime, and McBride was given his nickname (by the entire political establishment) for the material he peddled.
@Jam Jam – very well said, even the Labour points I do agree with.
I disagree though Cameron will have excuse to rip the heart of public services under the guise of exceptable cost cutting!
He’s already wasted no time in using this environment as way of distancing himself from Labour spending; almost a policy from him but not saying where the spending will be cut – still detail isn’t his or the Cons strong point.
Owen Meredith is making a false statement when he accuses UKIP MEPs of being “the biggest abusers of expenses”. The only MEP who was ever convicted of any misconduct was immediately kicked out of the party, which he had only joined under false pretences. He is no longer a member of UKIP so you are quite WRONG to include him in your figures.
The UKIP MEPS have been very busy for the past five years exposing the extravagance, corruption and undemocratic procedures of the EU. They also give a large proportion of their salaries to legal aid for people fighting terrible EU laws. They are the cleanest MEPS anywhere when it comes to expenses, and do not lead the lavish lifestyles of, for instance, the Kinnocks or the Mandelssohns of this world who only go into politics to get rich quick.
If you are looking for something to call a shambles, look at the EU itself, The members would not listen to their own President, Vaclav Klaus, when he got up and criticized the Lisbon Treaty (which is by the way going to bring back the death penalty).
They shouted him down, booed, heckled and then walked out.
And by the way their own expenses are kept a state secret – I wonder why?
If you vote for any pro-EU party you are just naive, voting to be ripped off and stripped of your democratic rights.
@ JimJam – “In all honest Cameron an insubstantial PR slick salesman and will achieve little of consequence, no Thatcher,”
I’m not convinced that the current mood of the electorate actually wants any sort of Thatcherite or other ideological consequence. To my mind, right now a lot of people are very tired of the Vision Thing – it’s not long since we were relieved of the Messiah Tony Blair and I don’t think most people are at all hungry to experience that sort of missionary zeal again for quite some time. Quiet, competent government is much more desirable in these tumultuous times.
It’s possible that Cameron can deliver enough of this to satisfy. I suppose we’ll find out before too long. What we know for sure, though, is that Brown and co. have not and cannot deliver it.
From the point of view of many people the choice is between Cameron (who might well deliver) and Brown (who definitely will not deliver). It’s a no-brainer, really, hence Labour’s freefall in the polls.
Billy (and Neil & Quincel),
Actually, Churchill was very much in favour of teh estanlishment of a United States of Europe – which was why he encouraged de Gaulle and Adenauer to set up teh original ICSC and EEC.
However, it was never any part of Churchill’s plans for Britain to be a part of the USE – so the UKIP posters are accurate in that respect.
The discussions on possible merger of France and Britain were in the context of salavaging the French empire post WWII when it was facing bankruptcy.
However, the global pressure of decolonisation, in both empires, meant that the potential economic synergies were disappearing faster than the political cultural obstacles were rising.
The apogee of Franco-British cooperation was Suez – ’nuff said !
Paul
Anthony,
This is why we want Independence, so that English people rant at each other without us getting in the way…….
Peter.
At last, some sense from Paul about Churchill and the so-called United States of Europe.
Churchill wanted Western Europe to have a united defence policy that could help it to stand up to the Soviet bloc which emerged post-war. He just didn’t want any more wars between France and Germany. To imagine that he would have approved of the Lisbon Treaty, chucking away our sovereignty, is laughable.
But the politicians of Lib-Lab-Con conformity are just in there to make a quick buck. They are quite content to let the job of government be done elsewhere, while they watch their home cinema systems (like Maliq) or enjoy their pergolas and Tudor beams at our expense.
I’d like to keep Scotland in the Union so that I can occasionally rant on about how terribly left wing it is and know that I will still offend somebody.
In addition, while we’re being as partisan as we like;
Despite much of the thread stating the opposite the BNP and UKIP ARE irrelevant and DON’T deserve backing.
Tories are plenty Eurosceptic enough and a vote for them will at least actually achieve something.
That’s it. I’m done now.
@ Billy
I also saw that campaign flyer:P What i found most amusing is that it said ‘were real people not career politicians’ (or somthing along that line) and you cant help but think, if you arnt career politicians then why go into politics???:P
UKIP are a joke, any party who only has one goal cannot last in the real world.
Peter,
I hope that if Scotland did get independence you would still visit us to give us an outsiders perspective.
You would care of course abouit the politics in your buggest trading partner.
Jim Jam, there are no “right wingers”… it doesn’t mean anything anymore… what on earth do you mean by a “right winger”?
socially right-economically right? (in America maybe)
socially left-economically left? (Green Party / anticapitalists?)
socially right-economically left? (caricatured evil-doers)
socially left-economically right? (the establishment)
the left is supposed to be radicals; the right, conservatives… seems more complex than that to me.
The reason you’re not scared by Cameron, is that he is a leftie! what “rightie” about him exactly?
I do agree with the assessment of him and his Blue-Labour crew.
The thing you don’t seem switched onto, is that most people do naturally or consistently lean to “the right” on a range of issues, but don’t necessarily vote that way… the collapse in turnout in ‘97 indicates that the media shift to the left has been reflecting a false picture of where the country was at… people stayed away; those that didn’t went to Labour to get rid of the Tories, as Labour had an “Obama moment”.
The supposed “rise of the Daily Mail neanderthal” has been a slow steady response to the public discourse being shifted towards the “socially left, economically right” (left), held off by the bubble, so it looks like a sudden event, but it’s been building for the last decade or so.
“In short right wingers are more likley to go on a web-site and john a thread which shows a good position for than left-wingers who see the opposite, only natural.”
rubbish… you’ll find plenty of “right wingers” posting all over the net, including on the “left wing” sites …there are simply more right-wingers than left wingers: simple!
Why is it a joke that UKIP’s main goal is to get the UK out of the EU so that we can govern ourselves? UKIP then has a set of policies for the sort of government it would like at Westminster if the UK were properly self-governing again. To find out more, go to the main UKIP website http://www.ukip.org/home.
Promsan – you can disagree with me without calling my views rubbish.
perhaps you can explain your apparent contradiction.
You say
‘ there are no “right wingers”… it doesn’t mean anything anymore… what on earth do you mean by a “right winger”?
Then lower down
‘ you’ll find plenty of “right wingers” posting all over the net, including on the “left wing” sites …there are simply more right-wingers than left wingers: simple!
Are there right wingers then or not?
We will never agree about the intrinsic make upof people in this country, I think there is a natural left of centre majority – Tory higest vote only around 44%.
@ JimJam – “We will never agree about the intrinsic make upof people in this country, I think there is a natural left of centre majority – Tory higest vote only around 44%.”
If you factor in the Tories + UKIP + the BNP, you’ll end up with more than 50% somewhere along the supposed rightwing spectrum. And then there are those who were willing to vote New Labour but would never vote Old Labour.
My own view is that most people are broadly centrist and tend to be “right wing” on some issues and “left wing” on others. Which way they vote will depend on which issues they weight more, among other things.
@ Michael
I don’t like UKIP, but they are not just a single issue party. They want tax cuts, they want to do more to fight crime, end the smoking ban, stricter immigration laws, as well as of course withdrawing from the EU.
My prediction is that UKIP will finish 2nd with 25% (i hope not though) and the Tories will finish 1st. I think the BNP will get about 7 or 8% on election day (again i hope i’m wrong).
As I have said several times before, the entire concept of dividing people into “left” and “right” along a linnear spectrum is actually an import (from France) and bears no relation to the reality of modern politics.
One can devise any number of axes on which to position political / philosophical views. Economics is but one such axis, and a relatively recent one at that, which assumed greatest prominence in the post-war period as the contrast between “communism” and “capitalism”.
Promsan’s variations are valid, and I agree that the concept of “right-wingers” is meaningless, unless you are a football manager.
When people start to define themselves by what they are not, it merely proves that they have no substance to their own core principles.
@ Neil
I never said Churchill was an advocate of the EU (nor do I personally believe that is a perfect system.) Nonetheless he certainly did not want Britain to be isolated from Europe, as the UKIP wants.
@ Michael (and anyone else who can answer)
As a curiosity has the UKIP actually mentioned what they plan to do once they have the UK leave the EU?
[...] – YOUGOV POLL – LAB 22%, CON 41%, LD 19%. And See Sun Report – Labour’s lowest EVER [...]
@ Billy – independence and isolation aren’t synonymous, you know.
@ James Ludlow
Not normally, but where the EU is concerned it would mean virtually the same thing. (Unless Britain became something like Norway and Switzerland.)
What is going on at the Sun?
The poll does show UKIP on 19 percent then they changed the story and the UKIP mention was removed. Have they been leant on?
Er…Not really Billy.
Norway, Switzerland, China, Japan, Russia, Brazil, Argentina, Australia, Canada and the USA (you get the picture!) to name but a few seem to function perfectly well without being fully paid up members of the EU bureaucracy.
As long as you have a continuation of ‘free trade’ the only benefits to membership are social rather than economic as far as I can see.
@ Billy – “Not normally, but where the EU is concerned it would mean virtually the same thing. (Unless Britain became something like Norway and Switzerland.)”
Well that’s precisely why it doesn’t mean the same thing.
My point about Switzerland and Norway were that they had trade agreements with the EU that put them on the same level as the EU members without actually being part of it.
China, Japan, Russia, Brazil, Argentina – to my knowledge – all have their own trading blocs similar to the EU. Granted they don’t have the same political influence over countries that the EU has (which I agree, with things like the Lisbon Treaty is taken too far), but my point was that economically speaking it would be better for Britain to remain a member of the EU, or at least a fringe member. The EU is a powerful trading bloc. Britain on its own will not have the same power.
@ Billy – that’s my point too. Independence doesn’t exclude trading deals, alliances and so on. There aren’t just two options: full commitment to the EU versus isolated self-sufficiency.
We actually lose on our trade with the EU, so if it stopped altogether so we’d actually be better off. That wouldn’t happen of course. We traded with what was then the EEC before we joined it, so why would we stop after we left?
This being the rant side I shall enjoy myself; I think UKIP is rubbish.
Why? In a world of global capitalism, global terrorism, global issues like the environment, global credit crunch, global issue like human rights the idea that spending what- twenty years- to get the UK out of the EU has any point is laughable. The point of solely Nationalist govts is stupid..
Let’s not forget that
a) There is no UK- all devolved parliaments have nationalists in power
b) Since the EU there has been no European wars
Seriously those who believe in the UKIP are nuts; at the very least it would take 20 years to unwind al the EU legal points. So, to vote for a party that would require that length of time to achieve it’s ‘the Empire still rules’ policy is mindless.
Basically I see UKIP voters being that lot who polled against RCs being allowed to marry into the Monarchy and those who voted against female succession in the monarchy; in other words UKIP vote against all change. The world has moved on; we no longer run the world.
Seriously, England has to recognise that it is no longer very important; it once had an Empire but no longer has one. And it’s economy is now very fragile. To turn its back on Europe is an appalling idea- it’s worth noting that that the CBI is a strong supporter of EU integration. So UKIP twits are arguing against what the best business brains support.. But hey, we once had an Empire so that means the world owes us a living…
Or are we more than just an historic, backward looking theme park? I suspect not….
Let the haranguing begin
(And that’s why so many UK people have left the country–only Mexico has more people out of its country than the UK. The UK has more of its intelligent people than any other… Check the OECD report…)
Norway?
Irrelevant argument. They used their oil money to creaet a sovereign wealth fund. WE spent ours.
That’s why they have money.
‘Paul H-J
As I have said several times before, the entire concept of dividing people into “left” and “right” along a linnear spectrum is actually an import (from France) and bears no relation to the reality of modern politics. ‘
The French base is pointless I agree.
But the rest of the world works happily with a Left / right continuum- all politics books cope with it.
Is it really that hard?
Left wing are socially free abut economically tight as controlled by govt.
Right wing are socially tight (as in limited by govt and economically free
And the result is the credit crunch…
Seriously you are in a different world if you cant live with this… (But hey, this site has too many right wing extremists…
‘Pete B
We actually lose on our trade with the EU, so if it stopped altogether so we’d actually be better off
So based on the past you think it’s happen again? Good luck. Once you tell the EU you don’t want them where would trade go? Commonwealth? You’ve told them to get stuffed when you joined the EU so that’s gone. So your argument is pointless…
If the UK spent the 20 years to withdraw from the EU no-one would be at all interested in them. Do you seriously expect the EU to say fine withdraw, but you can have the benefit of being part of the trade group. No way. The UK would be an isolated little country relying solely on its historic theme park to earn some money.
You can not turn back the clock; the UKIP are little Englanders who have not realised that the UK is now a fairly minor player in the world.
THANK YOU JANE – you are so right!
UKIP is not irrelevant, it’s certainly not laughable and is not a one-issue party. Nor does it want to be “isolated” – it just wants us to govern ourselves which means choosing what taxes we pay and what laws we pass.
That is not isolation, it’s FREEDOM.
Ivan the Terrible is naive to believe that the Conservatives are Eurosceptic. David Cameron is just an opportunist who is prepared to say anything to get votes. One minute he promises a refendum on the Lisbon Treaty, the next minute he has forgotten what he said. He was a side-kick of Major and Lamont when they were messing this country up.
The spin from the main parties is similar to 2004, and the media were there to help then. This time the media has to give UKIP greater exposure and that is why UKIP’s phones are ringing off the hook.
It suits UKIP to a degree to have the main parties, and remember the LibDemds came 4th last time, saying UKIP is not doing well. Come June 4th UKIP will be at least second. We now have ‘it’s the way I tell ‘em’ Frank Carson as a member. That will be worth a few thousand votes.
“Come June 4th UKIP will be at least second.”
Do you see a reasonable scenario where they could win?
‘I must say I do feel for Gordon Brown. The poor man must be on the verge of a nervous breakdown by now’
Why?
He plotted and backstabbed and briefed to get the job he’s making such a pig’s ear of
I feel sorry for the people that his mess of a government are affecting adversely
Sorry – I don’t like making partisan comments on here
Anyway as I predicted Labour could and have gone below 28 per cent many thought was their bottom line
They are now averaging 24 per cent so whether they will get polls below this 22 per cent is now the question
@ Jack
I said that we would be better off if trade with the EU stopped altogether, and you then go on to try to prove that trade would be likely to stop altogether. Thank you.
We’d also save £40m a day that we pay to the EU for the privilege of them making most of our laws and losing money in trade with them. No to mention giving them most of our fish!
The world’s a big place. There are plenty of countries to trade with, some of them even profitably!
By the way, you seem to think that I’m a UKIP supporter. I will actually make up my mind how to vote in the time remaining before the election, based on the parties’ campaigns and literature etc. I have never blindly followed one party.
I actually do think it might be possible for UKIP to win, but it is highly unlikely. Incidentally, I don’t even think they will manage second, but 2nd,3rd,4th will all be tight.
Promsan – you can disagree with me without calling my views rubbish.
– alright, but I think you know that what I meant was “I think you’re talking rubbish”; as opposed to “it is a fact that you’re talking rubbish”, and abbreviated it to one word.
perhaps you can explain your apparent contradiction.
– again, I think you’re being a little disingenous; I’m challenging the concept and language of “right-wing”, but, recognising that it is a term that you use to compile a particular selection of views that you disdain, I’m using it for brevity until an alternative turns up – I could use the term I prefer, but it would be like debating in a parallel language (reminiscent of some of my conversations with Americans, for whom the term “left-wing”, socialist, and “right-wing” mean quite different things from what they do here.
I also don’t believe that racism exists – because, my reading of up-to-date work on the subject by the leading academics: professors Edwards; Oppenheimer; Davies at places like OxBridge, is clear that race does not exist; only ethnicity does, and so what people really mean by “racism” is ethnocentrism, but for the sake of not wheeling out loads of abstruse and possibly excessively technical references every time, I have to temporarily use terms that others understand, so that debates don’t digress into academic forays for the uninitiated.
I mean, the problem I have with your use of the term is that you use it as an epithet to denigrate the views and people who hold those views as some kind of intellectual untermensch… structurally, it is the same kind of logical-fallacy based mode of language (taxonomically alighned with Ad Hominem, Ad Opprobrium, Ad Nazium, every-schoolby-knows, slippery-slope etc…), as “racism”… in that you define a group of people by some aspect of their identity, and attack and demean them… e.g.: the “daily mail reader”.
I’ve never read a copy in my life, as it goes; but I did use to be a copytaker for the Independent.
It’s known as the “Genetic Fallacy” – you belong to this category, therefore you’re evil, and thus your views are not to be engaged with.
Second, the delusion that most of the country is “centre left”…
I suppose, if like me, you looked at the packaging of the Tories as “left wing”, you might be right.
However, as we haven’t established whether we both mean the same thing by “left wing”; and since you seem to class them as right wing, on the first count, there are no reasonable grounds for categorising them as such; and on the second count, you seem to contradict yourself.
More to the point, your so-called “left-wing” government, only has a mandate of 35% of about 61%, which gives an overall figure of 26% of the electorate (and we’re making assumptions that all of them agree with everything you regard as leftie), and if you throw in the LibDems, Greens, and minor bits and bobs, and maintain the (unqualified) assumption that they all conform to your notion of “left-wing”, you’re still only talking about a third of the eligible electorate.
If we go on to assume that being anti-EU (or Pro-Sovereignty if you like) is a core criteria for being “right-wing”, then you will have to concede that in practically every objective/professional poll taken on the subject, the balance of opinion has been consistently more like 2/3 “anti” or “not-madly-pro”; and about a third in the other direction… and I’m rounding both sides up there.
But again, you don’t seem to actually know what you mean by “left” or “right” beyond, “left” being the goodies who agree with everything you do; and “right” being the baddies.
It seems most likely that your notion of the division is centred around “social” attitudes…
so in answer to you, no there is no “right-wing”, (if that’s what you call me, then i’d call you “wrong-wing”), you are just parroting anachronistic 20th century ideas.
(..I was mocking your “simple” thing at the end)
My simplified definition on that angle would be that it’s like a division between Free Will and Determinism; and I would rather describe myself as a Determinist-Winger rather than anything else; and I’d like to see Britain be more like Switzerland in many ways.
My views are a mixture of all sorts of “wings” depending on question and the context.
I don’t particularly care for any party, but I would like to see the big three destroyed utterly, and a new political paradigm begin where the views of far left fanatics and cryptofascist diversity-thought-police are not paraded around by the media and public institutions as “mainstream” or “centre”.
“Jack”, sounds like a humanities student to me… your concept of “left” and “right” is a eurocentric one… it doesn’t apply in north america… which is why there is no “Labour Party” in America, just a “Democratic” one.
Calling people extremists belies your own extremism.
You forget that you and your politics are not “the” centre… from my perspective you come across as a far left fascist…. fascism is statism is leftism: simple.
The EU is not global, it’s very very regional and self-interested… food mountains? agricultural subsidies? I don’t see them compensating Africa for colonialism with favourable trade arrangements.
The UK is far more global than the EU with the Commonwealth and the seat on the security council, and NATO …what the hell did the EU do whilst concentration camps were set up and used just over the border in Yugoslavia?! What are they doing to help Ukraine and Belorussia?! etc… You really just need to drag yourself to the library and start deconstructing your world view, and be more objective about it.
debating with mock-liberals really is like flower-arranging sometimes.
To answer a post above there have been European wars since the EU – plenty in fact.
I also like some of the blind nationalist optimism on here regards to trade. As the majority of the trade we do goes into the EU – if we leave – the UK will lose any say in how technical standards and regulations are created and enforced. These will be decided within the EU and the UK, to trade will have to comply.
So better to try and stay at least within to affect an outcome.
Still, if it as least one crumb of comfort the HoL has always maintained the if Parliament passes a law in direct contradiction to EU legislation then it will follow Parliament. We have not signed away “soverignty” (whatever that means in todays rather multi polar world) to anybody.
Regardless of whether the UK was in the EU or not, it is almost impossible to imagine a realistic scenario where any European country would stop trading with us. To say that we would still be forced to abide by their trading rules or else not trade is disingenious – IF the UK decided that some of the trading rules were not to our liking, and did not follow them, does anyone seriously suggest that the EU would cut off trade rather than bend to accomodate?
The fact is the EU depends heavily on the UK for any clout it has. Without the UK, the EU would have reduced financial muscle, very little diplomatic/political muscle, and absolutely 0 military muscle.
The EU needs the UK, not the other way round. We should leave ASAP.
“I also like some of the blind nationalist optimism on here regards to trade. As the majority of the trade we do goes into the EU – if we leave – the UK will lose any say in how technical standards and regulations are created and enforced. These will be decided within the EU and the UK, to trade will have to comply.”
I’m guessing this might have been aimed at me. Yes, the majority of our trade is with the EU, but we have a negative Balance of Payments with them. Therefore if it stopped completely (which it wouldn’t, of course) we would be better off.
Anthony, with respect, though it is certainly significant that there has been a boost in UKIP support, surely the title for this thread should have been “YouGov: Labour support falls to its lowest ever” purely because of the monumental significance of that fact.
Opinion polls for voting intentions of political parties go back to 1943, and in that time Labour had never dropped below 23%. Indeed it has probably been at least since the 1918-1922 Parliament since true Labour support has been so low, before the party first formed a government.
@ Neil
Lets think about that for a moment Neil, yes, the other European countries would still trade will us, however no where near on the same scale, it would be harder for us to travel throughout Europe, and, lets face it, we would not have as big a pressence in the Global market.
Nationalists, like yourself, cant seem to get in into your head that the UK is no longer the heart of a global empire, we cant just pull up our draw-bridge and say no to other countries.
No, Michael, you are wrong. We could still do all the trade we wanted to with EU countries if we left the the EU itself, and we would have the advantage of no longer being impeded and frustrated by EU trade barriers between us and the rest of the world. It is the EU that practices protectionism, and don’t ever forget that!
Has Scottish Nationalism cut Scotland off from the rest of the world in trade? Or Welsh nationalism? Have they become poorer? Have they become isolated and powerless? Of course not.
The EU is just milking this country for all we are worth, and it is a disgrace that when our economy is so weak, the EU (initials stand for Extravagance unlimited) is increasing our contributions and impoverishing us still further. The few little pittances that we get back are an insult.
If self-government is nationalism, and nationalism is so bad, then I suppose you think that Tibet is better off being absorbed by China than it would be as a free independent nation. Do you think the Tibetans are better off as part of something big? Should they be scared of being isolated? Should the Free Tibet movement also be dismissed as nationalism, imperialist, right-wing or fascist?
Of course the older parties will insult UKIP and talk a lot of nonsense about it. That is only to be expected as they are hostile and fuming whenever any alternative party comes on the political scene.
They are sneering and jeering because they are insecure, panicking because they are all in crisis over the MPs expenses scandal, and can hardly muster one voter apart from those who never read the news….
Billy, I do believe your comments about Churchill are incorrect., he categorically did not want a “United States of Europe”. Churchill wanted the European countries to form a partnership and co-operate with each other (a much looser arrangement than a United States of Europe) leaving Britain to remain outside of Europe and be part of “The Commonwealth of Nations”. This would be very sensible seeing as the Commonwealth presently represents 53 countries and 2 billion people and our Queen is its head. Britain would also be able to trade freely with these countries, unlike now where we have to pay a fee to the E.U. for the pleasure. Ask yourself why is Norway such a prosperous country? Well, firstly it greatly benefits from a very flourishing and well run fishing industry and it is outside of the E.U. and can trade with whoever it chooses. Just think how much taxed income our Treasurery would be receiving now if only we had a well run Fishing Industry instead of one that is on its knees because of all the E.U. regulation. As an example a Norwegian fisherman is able to catch 16,000 tons of fish (I don’t know what kind) per year, whereas a Cornish fisherman is only allowed 16,000 kilos per year; French fishermen enjoy 70% of the fish stocks around our waters (which now belong to the E.U.) leaving our poor fishermen with 7%. If Britain is to prosper once more we must withdraw our membership of the European Union for the reasons stated above.
“Nationalists, like yourself, cant seem to get in into your head that the UK is no longer the heart of a global empire, we cant just pull up our draw-bridge and say no to other countries.”
…could always join NAFTA!
We’d be far better of with the US Dollar than the Euro.
…and it’s worth noting that in all the various tables for PPP GDP per Capita, HDI, “Happiness”, and all those sorts of things, EFTA countries: Norway and Switzerland outperform all but Luxembourg in the EU.
It comes across as reactionary fearmongering to say “we’ll be isolated and our economy will go to the dogs”, ahem, really? what’s happening at the moment? and how is EU membership helping exactly?
…and the notion that wanting freedom from an organisation that can’t get it’s accounts signed off for over a decade is all about clinging onto empire seems groundless (an understatement)…
there are any number of alternative economic models the UK could pursue that would yield better growth and social stability than the current arrangement with the EU …it’s just geographical convenience: why not a global union of industrialised and free democracies?
I’m not doing normal moderation in this thread, since it’s beyond saving, and is a safety valve for people incapable of following the comments policy elsewhere – but there are lines. No libellous comments please.
Michael,
How would we not have as big a presence on the global market? It would be bigger, we would not be hindered by the EU’s anti-free market, inward looking, protectionist regulations. Furthermore, as I pointed out before, the EU would still trade with us, on any scale for a simple reason – they need to.
And by the way, your “You wish there was still a British Empire” comment just makes you look petty and ridiculous.