Enjoy the trip down memory lane – but you may find that there is a sharp contrast between memory and the current reality.

Of course, Glasgow may not have changed as much as the places where I was born (Basra) or lived until age 12 (Beirut) .

Incidentally – don’t assume that there will in fact be a by-election. The seta does not fall vacant until 21 June, so a by-election could well be defererd until late September, and if Parliament is dissolved beforehand there will not be a by-election (probably Labour’s best hope of retaining that particular seat).

Lab 26%, Tory 18%, Libdem 13%, SNP 38%, Others 5%.

As ever it’s an itsy bitsy sample but the trend looks good for the SNP and fits well with the Notional idea that the Westminster parties are all suffering an smaller and Regional ( in our case national) parties are benefitting.

looking back over the last ten Populus times polls till june of last year the figures are predictably erratic given the samples but do confirm the UKtrend of labour recovering in the autumn only to fall back again since January.

This creates a problem because as I would normally try to see a trend between the last five polls and the five before that in the summer, the peak in the middle that starddles both samples in the autumn cancels any changes out.

Still right now I’d put us ahead and with the Speaker like the raven speaking no more we have a Glasgow By election to look foward to.

Did I mention that Michael Martins seat covers Quarrywood Rd where i was born, and Robroyston Ave where I lived until I left Glasgow aged eleven.

I am looking forward to going back.

Peter.

On average, maybe. But I see few regions exceeding this and we may well see turnout dip below 25% in some entire regions – eg London – where there are no local elections.