“(i) is only true in terms of the BNP’s “nationalist” attitude. But this is quite distinct from “patriotism” or upholding traditional British values. In all otehr respects, the BNP platform has much in common with socialist / authoritarian parties, hence its support tends to come from traditional working class areas.”

How exactly would you differentiate between “nationalism” and “patriotism” and “upholding British values”?

Which policies make you regard them as “authoritarian” exactly (compared with Labour for example)?

What makes you think the support tends to come from “traditional working class areas”, given the spread of members on those lists that were published recently?

I just don’t see where the evidence is for your assertions.

d2 – where can you bet on Euro results ?

Good luck with your wagers.

a) Likelihood of UKIP collapse:
Actually, the consensus prediction is that UKIP will fall back towards the level they achieved in 1999 rather than the spike they reached in 2004 courtesy of the high profile campaign led by Robert Kilroy-Silk.
Several factors support this view, not least that UKIP has had well documented organisational difficulties and personality splits. (Only 8 of the 12 UKIP MEPs elected in 2004 still sit for the party, and several of them are not standing again).
Another major factor is that, from an EU perspective, the Tory position appears more credible / palatable to the type of natural conservative who may have switched to UKIP in 2004.

b) UKIP switchers to BNP:
This is a contested view. I agree that the natural home of the large majority of UKIP voters in 2004 is in teh Conservative Party. This can easily be demonstrated by comparing the respective fall/rise of Con/UKIP votes in 2004 vs 1999 in Euro region by region.
Some, particulalrly on the left, make two lazy assumptions:
(i) that the BNP is a “right-wing” party; and
(ii) that the BNP is therefore viewed as an acceptable repository of Tory protest votes.

(i) is only true in terms of the BNP’s “nationalist” attitude. But this is quite distinct from “patriotism” or upholding traditional British values. In all otehr respects, the BNP platform has much in common with socialist / authoritarian parties, hence its support tends to come from traditional working class areas.

(ii) is founded on the mistaken assumption in (i). In reality, the majority of those who voted UKIP in 2004 will either:
– vote UKIP again
– vote Conservative
– stay at home
A few may well vote BNP, but the numbers will be insignificant in polling terms, and are likely to be concentrated in the E Midlands region.