Labour are heading for one hell of a beating!

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“Well you have to realise, Mr Cairns That the average blue collar potential BNP voter Does not log into this site and is rarely consulted by polsters.”

On the contrary for all their small support the BNP are particularly active and organised on the net and re always attempting to put their message across where ever they can.

That they don’t show up much here is because this being a site about polls which is very much evidence based, they don’t last long before their clames are rubbished for the propoganda they are.

Peter.

Just reread your original post criticising Cllr Cairns.

You say that you are not partisan and do not vote. If that is a true statement, and is a view shared by other supporters of the BNP, then it matters not how much armchair support they have amongst blue collar workers, that will not translate into great victories.

This site is used by people interested in polls to comment on the findings of polls. It is not a channel for compiling polls. If it were it would give a very distorted result since, by definition, regular users are more interetsed in politics than the average voter.

The polling companies have diffeent methods for ensuring that they capture a broad and representative sample of the population in order to deliver reasonably accurate results reflecting the views of teh electorate at large. It is recognised by all involved in the process that the results cannot be consistently precise, and this should always be borne in mind when reading polls.

However, it should be accepted that if all polling companies show that a particular strand of opinion barely registers in their results, then it is extremely likely that this is but a small minority view.

The validity of polls is regularly tested against actual elections. Sometimes we see surprise results, but these are rare exceptions and not the norm.

You may think that the BNP is garnering significant support. But that may just be a consequence of your personal circumstances. It does not mean that this is a true reflection of the picture across the whole country.

Most people know a lot of people who have similar views to their own, and few who disagree profoundly with them on a wide range of issues. That is simply human nature – we prefer the company of those who are like us. But, those who are able to open their minds to new ideas are generally more successful than those who refuse to accept that there may be a different – and equally valid – view other than their own.

Building a philosophy on the basis of a closed mind is not conducive to success, whether in electoral or practical terms.

If the polsters, who have developed their methodology over years to reflect the make up of the electorate, are consistantly showing 3-5% for the BNP then it is probably between 3-5%.

The argument that it is higher than that but the polls are missing it doesn’t really stack up unless you can point to a particular facet of BNP support that means they are less likely to respond to polls.

Being blue collar or low income and not having a phone or a computer doesn’t wash, because all the polling companies continue to contact people if they don’t have enough the each type to make up a balanced poll.

In a phone poll you might need to make three or four times as many calls to get the number of low income voters as high income votes but they keep phoning until they do.

The BNP may well have pockets of support in areas of deprivation and that will have an effect. But in the vast majorityof these areas Labour weigh their vote so even if the Labour party do very badly in the Euros and Council elections the BNP will still be a tiny number of MEP’s and Councillors.

In all likelyhood the BNP will get a marginal boost come the European vote but they will all but disappear come the general election.

As for Scotland I’d say that the BNP will probably get less votes than the 20,000 (1.7%) they got in 2004. Actually i’d say that they will be well beaten by Christain Vote who only just beat them the last time.

Dean,

I’d suspect that Alex allowances will always be on the high side as as a party leader he has to do a fair bit more than the average back bench MP.

It will be interseting to see just what my own MP’s have spent when the full thing comes out in July , although I am particularly looking forward to seeing what Eric joyce has been claiming.

Peter.

Do you really think it’s smart to draw attention to £400 spent by Alex salmond when the Tory shadow cabinet seem to be averaging ten times that.

People in Cyrstal Palace shouldn’t throw stones……

Peter.

Your not really Paul Burrell by any chance…..

Peter.