More Sunday polls
There are at least two voting intention polls in the Sunday papers, though so far we only have brief details.
A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times has topline voting intention figures of CON 43%(-2), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 18%(+1). The Conservatives are marginally below where they were at the end of April, though they remain safely in the 40s with Labour still down below 30.
Meanwhile a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday has voting intention figures, with changes from their last poll in mid-April, of CON 45%(nc), LAB 23%(-3), LDEM 17%(nc). This equals Labour’s lowest score this Parliament (indeed, I think it equals their lowest score ever).
Both of these polls likely had the majority of their fieldwork conducted before the expenses claims of the cabinet were published on Thursday night.
More to come later…
Filed under: BPIX, Voting Intention, YouGov
Thanks Anthony. Obviously two disasterous polls for Labour. The BPIX poll is especially worrying for the government, which the only saving grace that BPIX don’t publish the field work, which makes their polls suspect. Never the less, there will be some VERY worried faces in Downing Street this evening, I would imagine – Things are rapidly going from bad to worse.
Labour will have to hope no MP’s have been speculating in bank shares.
an odd one simply beacuse the BIPX poll shows labour on 23% and yougov shows them on 27% equaling a labour score of 25%, the tories meanwhile have sliped back to 44% and the li dems are on 17.5% others rating currently running at 13.5% if this were to continue the others would make a few gains and the locals look a bit like labours last stand before the big one in a years time.
The chances of Labour going below 20% in the European election seem to be increasing all the time. I wonder whether their second place position is under threat in the Euro election.
It would be interesting to see exactly when the fieldwork was done. That may account for the considerable disparity.
Either way it isn’t great reading Labour is it.
Interesting to note that no Tory or Lib Dem MP involved in the ‘ expenses scandal ‘ so their poll rating should be largely unaffected.
Tony
YOUGOV WAS DONE 7TH AND 8TH MAY
BPIX WAS DONE 8TH AND 9TH MAY
BOTH QUESTIONED ABOUT 2200 PEOPLE
SOME OF THE 9TH MAY QUESTIONED MAY HAVE HEARD ABOUT THE EXPENSES SCANDAL BREAKING SO THIS COULD ACCOUNT FOR DIFFERANCE!
no tory and lib dem yet, just wait another few days and we will see what comes out “a week is a long time in politics” and this scandal will drop voter tunout at elections in the future as people now see most MP’s as robbers and to put it this way as pigs. but on the current figures the tory majority this month so far would be 166.
CON 408
LAB 180
LD 33
OTH 29
ad on the voter trends the projected maximum conservative vote is 46.4% and labours is 22.3% with the lib dems 16.6% an others on 14.7%
on that figure the tory majority would be 250 after the election as follows:
CON 450 +240
LAB 144 -202
LD 27 -35
OTH 29 -3
Yougov. Lab 27, BPIX Lab 23 – a 4 point difference! Hopefully, we will not have to wait longer for a few more polls to find out which is more accurate. Although both may be equally accurate and Labour are on 25%. I certain think that Labour must have dropped at least one or two points.
Regarding the BPIX poll it is strange that despite Labour dropping 3 points that neither Cons nor Lib Dems improved.
There is a good chance that the next poll will show Cons 44, Lab 25, Lib Dems 19.
CURRENT SWING AROUND 11% FROM LAB TO CON
AROUND 8% FROM LIB DEM TO CON
AND FROM LAB TO LIB DEM 3.1%
PHILIP JW-
the differance from last month is so far:
CON +0.9
LAB -3.2
LD -0.8
OTH +3.1
most of the labour vote has gone to others and most of the up turn in conservative votes has come from the lib dems, and a monthly swing of 2.05% from labour to con and 0.85% from lib dem to conservative.
The Tories will undoubtedly suffer from the expenses scandal, but if Cameron can find a few sacrificial lambs he can capitalise on the sense of separation from his party he’s created.
Phillip JW
You say that the next polls could be Con 44%, Lab 25%, and Lib Dem 19%. You obviously think that the gap between Labour and the Liberal Democrats will narrow.
My question to you is do you think the Liberal Democrats will soon overtake Labour in the Polls? And if this were to happen what do you think would happen to Tory support if in people’s minds the Liberal Democrats, not Labour, were in second place?
I would be interested to hear your thoughts. Is Tory support strong because of Labour, or would it be strong anyway no matter who was second in the Polls?
Either way I would love to know your reasons.
23% is the joint lowest Labour ever appear to have picked up (this figure popped up in Spring last year too, including in a YouGov poll). Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s an outlier and 25-28% is what we will continue to see, which is essentially Labour’s core vote (Labour polled 27% in ‘83).
Plus BPIX has a fairly poor track record and tends to be very Tory-friends. YouGov seems to have a much better track-record on the other hand – recently it has been seen as showing a higher Labour poll. Historically it had been criticised for showing the Tories further ahead than the rest. I suspect this is more a case of shyness not being a factor for a web-based polling system.
The interesting thing in both polls is that defections from Labour now largely seem to be going to Others. I’m curious as to which ‘Others’ they’re going to. If various Labour figures are to be believed, it would mean the BNP. If so, the Euro elections may well see Griffin becoming an MEP.
The government is always likely to be damaged by an expenses scandal even if the problem is seen to be across parties for the simple reason that it is even more shocking when cabinet members are seen to be taking advantage of the taxpayer.
However, I have a suspicion that some of the senior Tory revelations will be even worse. I don’t know if anyone else saw the interview with Cameron where he said something along the lines of “all my MP’s will have to explain themselves and I will have to explain myself,” effectively admitting that some of his expenses will be questioned.
It will be interesting to see if the Tories lose ground in the coming days or whether people associate the scandal with this government.
IF Labour carries on the way it is we could see them drop below the 20 mark by the end of July to the start of June and the Lib Dems begin to start getting into the 20’s more often by about that time.
Looking forward to the next polls.
I understand the ST also has Euro pol figures of Con 36 Lab 25 LD 20 UKIP 7 Green/SNP-PC/BNP 4 each .
Almost matches my forecast done in January in the pb.com competition .
Labour might be beaten into third place in the Euro elections if a lot of core Labour voters decide to vote LD because of all the recent problems the government is having. I don’t think a lot of them would vote Conservative. A possible result is:
C – 35%
LD – 18%
Lab – 17%
UKIP – 10%
BNP – 10%
Green – 6%
If Labour do come third, Brown might find a lot of pressure on him to stand down as Labour leader.
I think the Daily Telegraph may leave it until after June 4th to publish the stories about the Conservatives and Libdems – the whole story will come out in July anyway, but I think the Telegraph would be quite well pleased if this story damaged Labour significantly for the Euros and, in particular the locals.
My Weighted Moving Average is 44:26:18 so I exactly agree with Anthony although we use different methodologies. BPIX has a strong Pro-C bias (mean 2.5 on WMA 2.1 on Retrospectives).
We saw this pattern about 1 year ago – the WMA CLead went up to 17 points on 15/08/08, and reached 21 by 17-Aug-08. By 14-Dec-08 the economic crisis (and Brown’s supposed experitise) had reduced it to 6%. But I doubt whether voters will be fooled again.
Andy,
I can’t see Labour come third, for the simple reason that I don’t think the Libdems will do very well in the Euros.
Neil, I think you are making the mistake of thinking the Telegraph backs the current Tory party.
Neil, I agree with you in the main about the LDs, but I was making the point that if Labour does even worse than I had previously thought in the Euro elections, most of that support would probably cross over to the LDs because it would involve core Labour voters such as public sector workers who probably wouldn’t defect to the Tories or UKIP. I initially was predicting a poor LD result with them getting about 13-14%. In other words, I think the combined Lab/LD vote will be about 35% however it splits.
SallyC,
I read the Telegraph, I know they are not enamoured by Davie C, but they wouldn’t miss a golden chance to knock Labour.
Andy,
Remember that the Libdems’ view on Europe (even more integrationist/federalist than Labour) is extremely unpopular nationally. I think many Labour voters will simply not vote, some will defect to the BNP, some to the Libdems and Greens, and a very small number to the Conservatives.
I think that the Labour + Libdem combined vote will be closer to 31-32% now.
Neil,
That is a very simplistic view of the Telegraph editorial policy.
You should read Guido more often!
Labour are now averaging 26 per cent but as I regularly state the polls always overestimate Labour’s strength
I am still fairly confident that their vote can be pushed lower – these polls were before the latest revelations – and would be surprised if the 26 per cent average did not change
Inetersting to see others are now following the predictions of the Oracle when he said months ago that after the 2010 election Labour would cease to be a politcal party and the remnants would join with a new Liberal party to make a new 2 party state.
I can remember many deriding him on here – till eventually he stopped commenting – I listened and knew he was right !
BIG AL,
While in no way do I support Labour or plan to vouch for them in any way, I think that is quite a simplistic view.
The Conservatives were in much the same position in 1996-1997. Some said then that they were goners.
A party like Labour has too large a core base to simply break up.
don’t know about breaking u but the party may fracture in smaller parts and lead to a full break up into other parties at some point over the next few years, i still do not thinks the lib dems will score highly in the key labour seats to over throw labour into third place but the tories on current form will win a big majority
@Richard Whelan
Do I think the Lib Dems will soon overtake Labour in the polls?
No, but I think they may equal Labour at some point soon on 22% in one or more polls.
Since February we have had three polls showing the Lib Dems on 22 and one on 21%
That Labour have already polled 23% is possibly an ominious sign. (Last year Labour only polled this low on two occasions.) How can things get better for Labour when unemployment is set to continue to rise for at least another 12 months, inflation of prices as the recession subsides with petrol rising almost certainly above one pound a liter by May 2010?! (Oh and VAT will go up and the Bank of England has said that further tax cuts of this kind is likely to do more harm than good).
Under such circumstance it is plausible, certainly not certain but possible, dare I say, that Labour may be beaten into third place at the GE with the Lib Dems gaining 25% and Labour on a lower percentage.
The reason for this is fourfold:
Firstly, the dismal performance of the Labour party at the GE.
Secondly, the lack of general enthusiasm for the Cons and indeed the distain of many past Labour supporters for the Cons means that they are unlikely to get more than 44% at the GE.
Thirdly, the 12% that ‘the others’ receive frequently is extraordinary high. At the last GE the others received only 6.86%. The others tend to rise by about 3% when Labour sink below 30%. This BPIX actually shows the others on 15%!
Fourthly, I think there is a chance that the Lib Dems have the policies and will have the momentum that might gain them 25% of the votes.
For example, the policy of closing the legal loopholes so that the rich actually pay the tax that most people think they should. And the promise to give this money to lower and middle income earners is exactly the kind of policy that could attract 3% of the others who obviously are former Labour supporters.
Regarding the momentum, I come back to your original question. There is a good chance at some point , particularly just after the Lib Dem conference in September that they will poll equal to or better than Labour. This would almost certainly lead to some media speculation about the Lib Dems beating Labour into third place, giving the Lib Dems the momentum to actually make this plausible.
At present the last 5 polls suggest that the Lib Dems are on 17.5%. But for the reasons outlined there is still hope that in the long run they may do much better. And let’s not forget that 23.68% of people who voted in the last GE voted Lib Dem.
Just to put it into persepective the Lib Dems got 23.68% at a GE where Labour got 36.19%. It seems incredible that in a context where Labour are at present set to drop 10% at the next GE that the Lib Dems instead of gaining appear to be on course to drop 6%.
I suppose that both Labour and the Lib Dems must be pondering whether things can really turn out to be that bad. But while I honestly don’t see any hope for Labour I genuinely do see some hope for the Lib Dems.
Yet more results from that YouGov/SNP poll. The SNP have been dripping out the findings a little bit at a time.
Asked to chose from words or statements for each of the following parties:
“Which, if any, do you think describes their leading politicians?”
“Stand up for Scotland’s interests”
Con 6%
Lab 10%
LD 9%
SNP 50%
Amongst those who most associated the SNP with Standing up for Scotland’s interests were 45% of Conservative voters, 41% of Labour voters, and 63% of Liberal Democrat voters.
I cannot believe that the revelations about MPs’ abuse of “expenses” will not have a Polling effect.
Logic says “they are all at it” would be the overiding view, in which case “others” or “will not vote” might be the gainers.
Tories may well find it more difficult to move much higher, whilst Labour, as the current administration could be hammered-leaving the Lib Dems to gain-unless their small band contains a disproportionate number of “second home” fiddlers.
For the GE, there is a fantastic opportunity for a bold party leader to take a clear initiative on behalf of the taxpayer & cut through the “it’s the system which is at fault” excuse.
The Lib Dem results are surprisingly low, especially after Clegg has had quite a high and positive profile re: the Gurkhas. With Labour firmly in the mid to high 20s, I’d have expected the Lib Dem results to be in the low 20s. Is disillusion with Labour now becoming disillusion with the liberal-left in general? Or is something else going on here?
Bad for Labour but still not great for the Tories. The ‘not enough at this stage’ argument has been covered on many threads in the past with no definate conclusion. It is posssible though that closer policy scutiny and their turn to suffer expense receipts releases will see a fall. Note very little comdemnation of ministers claims from the opposition parties.
Other Straw for anti-cons to clutch at is that the others will not be so high in a GE and the current score seems mostly to be at Labours expense.
Some will come back, some go LD and some abstain at the GE.
My conclusion Tory victory but not land-slide.
It is interesting that Andy Stidwell and Neil ignore the findings of this poll when it suits them and stick to their views that Labour and the LibDems will oerform badly in the Euros .
The ST poll states that the combined Labour/LibDem vote will be up on 2004 at 45% . Of course this may or may not be correct , if they are right and this poll ( 3 wrrks before the event ) is wrong then what is the likelihood of the GE findings being correct in 1 year’s time ?
The Lib Dems pro Europe alliance will count against them in some areas, and the BNP is selecting its message according to the area its working in.
I suspect the Greens and The BNP will gain seats, possibly 1 or 2 from the Jury team because all politcians are tainted by the expenses scandal.
If prosecutions don’t follow I suspect Lib Dem and independant to very well when this country crawls to a general election.
Clearly a fantastic set of figures for the Conservatives. I am suprised the LD’s are not polling higher! One reason my be that Clegg appears to many to be a weak Cameron! Will Gordon survive a June 4th election disaster? – not sure. IF he does not odds have to be for an autumn GE! Interesting what would happen if tactical voting switching from being anti tory to anti labour? A landslide would be on the cards surely???
Mark Senior
What are your predictioins for June 4th?
@ Jim Jam – how exactly are 16 and 22 points leads respectively “still not great for the Tories”?!!!! How much of a lead would you consider “great”?
As regards the expenses, I wouldn’t be overly surprised if a heavy proportion of Tories and LibDems were more-or-less as implicated as Labour MPs (and I say this as a Tory).
However, I feel that the opposition has advantages:
- beyond Hague, Cameron, Osborne and Clarke, very few Tory MPs are commonly known, unlike 12 years of Labour ministers.
- the Daily Telegraph is releasing the data, and I suspect they’ll focus on the Labour ministers.
As for the polls, we are effectively plumbing the depths for Labour; the Tories won’t get much higher and I think the most interesting question is whether the LibDems will have an effect in Labour’s heartlands.
im ust agree, Lib Dem popularity now all rests on how much they have been claiming, if they havnt relal been claiming anything they could quite easily get into the 20s band (low to mid in somke cases), however if thgey have been claiming uneedingly, they wont change much.
I think is obviously clear right now labour need some sort of miracle.
Tories are richer generally. Overall they claim the least on average of all three main parties (Lib Dems claim the most!) so the fallout for them is unlikely to be anywhere near as bad as for Labour.
I just cannot believe how bad things are for Brown and Labour at the moment.
Expenses, Gurkhas, Some chief of police in the paper today speaking out about how soft we’ve been on criminals over the last 12 years, Harriet Harmans PC nonsense and of course Brown, well, being himself.
Cameron coudn’t have written the script better himself.
Tories just HAVE to hit 50% in coming weeks surely?!
Dear Ivan The Terrible,
“Lib Dems Claim the Most”
Er, that might be because travel costs to constituencies like Orkney & Shetland, Caithness & Sutherland, Gordon, St Ives, Ceredigion etc etc are a little higher than Witney or Hull …..
Proportionately, Lib Dems have a higher number of deeply remote seats
@ Ivan the Terrible
The fallout in expenses, for the Tories, will come from the fact that people are generally aware that they are richer. If they are millionaires already, as much of the front bench is, why do they need to claim the taxpayers money?
@Ivan the terrible
If they hit 50% then I think we’ll see panic and mayhem from the Labour backbenchers and anything’s possible.
The headlines are unremittingly awful for the Government, most of which they’ve brought on themselves. They are a busted flush.
Cameron just has to sit pretty, judiciously attack the government when presented with an opening and NOT produce any concrete policies whatsoever until the next general election manifesto.
CreweGwyn,
“Lib Dems have a higher number of deeply remote seats”
Sure, I agree. I didn’t mean to say they were the top ‘troughers’ at all. Just that , by claiming the least, the Tories might get away with more positive coverage overall.
We don’t yet know all the facts but I just can’t imagine some wealthy landowner or ex-financier spending his Sunday afternoon filling in forms to claim back a few pennies on nappies and bath plugs.
The petty-minded ‘claim everything you’re entitled to’ jobsworth is far more likely to sit on the Labour benches in my opinion.
May I just remind Ivan and others that MPs from either Liberal or Tory parties tend to have rural, large constituencies so I’d expect sizable expenses from such numbers- in fact if they dont this may very well suggest they are failing to maintain local surgeries and a sustained interest in their large rural comunities.
So it honestly doesnt matter if they are ‘more expensive’ or not- what matters is their constituency type.
I will say on the polls-
Good showing for D.C’s progressives however bad for Browns Labour. The surprising thing I find is just how low in the 20’s that the Labour core vote can sink to. I have always believed that no matter how awful things got, Labour could still ‘get out’ at least 26% share nationally.
Why are the Liberals not getting a better showing? I thought that given they are the natural left wing replacement for Labour they could get into the 20%-25% region. Ach well, still a long ways out one supposes.
I believe the Tory expenses are due out on Monday? Is that correct?
Some people are asking why the Liberal Democrats aren’t doing better.
I think the answer lies in the fact that the fieldwork for these polls were conducted in large part before the extent of MPs Expenses as outlined in the Daily Telegraph became known.
For polls whose fieldwork is being conducted now and in the next few days maybe we will indeed see the Liberal Democrats somewhere between 20-25%.
What do people think?
@Danboy
There is/was a big difference between the Tories in 97 and the Labour Party now. Howsoever low the Conservative Party went, people always knew that they retained basic core philosophies, the most important of which was resistance to Statism and a belief in the power of individual choice.
All the while, Labours basic stated or unstated philosophy was Public Spending = Good. The implication was always that if only they had the chance to have a meaningful amount of time and resources, they could prove this philosophy beyond doubt. In the past, they’d never had the opportunity to “do it properly” – suddenly, over the past 12 years, they did.
Only a hermit in a cave somewhere would think today that this philosophy held water. Labour has now proved to itself, its supporters and everyone else in the country that the basic philosophy is a crock of **** (hint = not gold).
If the LP suffers an electoral calamity, there is nothing left to hold on to. No core philosophy which retains any credibility. This was not true of the Tories, whatever else was thought of them at the time.
So. Gordon Brown’s crowning achievement?
Very possibly the extinction of the PLP as a meaningful force in British politics. I’m sure that very many people will reject this thesis out of hand. However, it is logical.
Oh and by the way………
Proper expenses strategy for Cameron?
Identify some serious culprits. Put them in the same basket as Conway, where the Conservatives have set a proper precedent. Insist on a few by-elections to clean up the worse excesses.
Impact? Kinda obvious………
20+ labour seat by-elections anyone???
I notice no mention of the dark horse: the BNP. Site policy?
James – when the major Gov’t was in it’s dying days polls showed voting intention jumping straight to Blair’s New Labour.
These polls are clearly good for the Tories but I maintain not great as a fall to under 40% risks the anti-Tory vote (which may still be a majority being energised. Great would be touching the 50% Ivan predicts.
I eagerly await the Tory expense receipts but honestly don’t know how it will play out.
Brett – Chorley ,
I would agree with that. However I wouldn’t underestimate the loyalty of the core party base. It might be around 15/17%?
It is clear that the vast majority of people agree that MPs should lose control of their own expenses.
I wonder whether ordinary people are able to think this through. Abdication of control over their expenses by MPs to a Quango is in essence a limitation on democracy. And Quangos themselves far from always have a good record on impartiality, accountability or efficiency.
The impartial House of Commons staff haven’t exactly kept MPs on the “straight and narrow ” recently in relation to expenses.
After all, MPs. ARE being held to account. The voters may well turf some of them out over their claims. If they were left to run their own expenses, with suggested reforms and current publicity arrangements, they would certainly mend their ways pretty quickly. You could say that the current scandal actually shows that in the end the system works.
I wonder how popular subservience of MPs to Quango control will be in a generation’s time.
The short of it is that the Queen and Parliament has been, and should be, sovereign, but people are suggesting changes without thinking or understanding the threats that their proposals represent to this constitutional principle.
im very open with my opinion of MP’s there all at it and not much chance of stopping that but if an inderpendent body is set up to limit MP’s exspances then it must be so and not have any MP speaker or parlimentary interfrance if this happens then the onl way forward will be to scrap the 2nd home payment for any MP living less than 100 miles from the commons.
Not sure what your problem is, Frederic. MPs are subject to a range of regulations pertaining to their roles as MPs. Obviously these have to be policed somehow and the way it’s currently being done obviously isn’t working very well.
Why should having their expenses overseen mean that they become “subservient to Quango control”?
Brett – Chorley – I agree.
What is left will form a circular firing squad which will reduce the “core” vote.
But who will form the alternative?
Despite the best MSM efforts to lable them right-wing, BNP are really hard left statists.
Jeff Todd,
Whenever I have pointed out that the BNP are a left-wing party, I get a cascade of abuse from Labour supporters who cannot accept that this is where about a quarter of their vote is going to go in June. (and another quarter is going to stay at home)
We now have a government in meltdown, but don’t hold your breath waiting for Brown to seek a dissolution.
There will probably be a motion of no-confidence in teh second week of June, but, unless enough Labour MPs either defect or abstain, Brown will claim that he in entitled to hang on even if he wins by just one vote.
The tables are now up on the YouGov site and the Scottish figures are a bit of a surprise. It’s a small sample but the Tories are doing remarkably well.
UK headline figures; Westminster.
Lab 27%, Tory 43% LibDem 18% Others 12%.
Scotland
Lab 28%, Tory 29%, Libdem 10%, SNP 29%, Others 3%.
Now I think Labour in third in Scotland really isn’t on but I suspect that the Tories are probably close to a high with possibly 23% a true figure, likewise the Libdems will be closer to 12%.
However it does seem that over the last month or so Scottish feeling towards Brown, Labour and the economy seems to have turned. Scotland is still to the left of the rest of the UK but attitudes seem to have shifted and the Scots tendency to almost tribally defend Brown seems to have faded.
The Euro scores are;
UK;
Lab 25%, Tory 36%, LibDem 20%, UKIP 7%, BNP/Green/SNP-PC all 4% each.
Scotland
Lab 25%, Tory 23%, LibDem 8% UKIP 1%, BNP 1%, Green 1%, SNP 37%.
On these figures the LibDems would lose their MEP and the SNP Lab and Tories would get 2 each although their is the outside chance of the SNP picking up three. Three seats would be a brilliant result and it would send shock wave through Scotland if it was the Tories that got two to Labours one.
So overall an interesting poll. I would emphasis again that I think the last few weeks of dreadful news for the Government have shifted the polls in Scotland, but I doubt think this sample size gives us enough to say more than Labour have been weakened and that it’s the SNP and Tories who are benefiting.
It will be interesting to see how the expenses claims impacts in Scotland. There was a story about Alex salmond claiming £800 for food when the parliament wasn’t sitting at the weekend but given that half the cabinet seem to have had suspect claims in the thousands ( tens of thousands in some cases) I can’t see it doing major damage to the SNP.
Of course when the whole thing comes out in July all our MP’s will be under the spotlight like anyone else but with less than ten MP’s I doubt we will have the same volume of stories as Labour with about forty.
Peter.
cllr peter cairns.
I don’t know which fantasy world you live in, but 4% for the BNP? I am non-partisan and do not vote but you seem to be driven by your party. I read all news reports and by-election results. It seems that you and most of the polsters have woefully underestimated the mood of the counrty.
Hepworth.
The 4% figure was the one from the YouGov poll, so if you have a problem with it take it up with them.
As to the 1% figure for the BNP in Scotland, well I won’t be surprised if it isn’t much higher than that.
Last election the BNP got 5% I doubt they will get above 6% this time.
Peter.
Hepworth
Whatever potential BNP supporters may think, the figures quoted by Cllr Cairns are those found in the Poll. There is nothing partisan in reporting the data as published.
So, either
a. support for the BNP is only in the region of 4%; or
b. BNP supporters are not being honest in their response to polls; or
c. BNP support is concentrated amongst people not contacted by the polling agencies.
There may be some truth in both (b) and (c), which would lead to the level of support for BNP being understated, but it is unlikely to be out by more than 2-4% overall – giving a max BNP score of 6-8% nationally.
If you read this site carefully, you will find that that is reflected amongst the comments, even if not shown in actual opinion poll results.
I have seen the same polls as Cllr. Peter and I have to say that the Scottish Tories actual figure is perhaps somewhere between 21-16%, however the TNS system 3 polls seem to contradict this with a tory figure of 19% (lower than I’d have thought, and lower than all other major polls), and the SNP seem to be holding 27-33% area, again with some polls contradicting that (but they are wholly unreliable in my opinion due to the absence of weighted data etc).
The Euro elections will be a good indicator for how well they all do, but my prediction for Scotland is 2:2:2 (Lab, SNP, Tory), and if that is the case then we can expect a major Tory revival in Scotland, with a SNP growth way above that expected in 2005, but less so than 2007.
Oh, and Peter I did clock that Salmond article and wasted no time putting it up on my Blog! (I went for a tasteful Sun copying ‘Gotcha’ headline)
sorry that should be 21-26%
Paul hj.
So you think that every thing you read is the truth?
There are many forces at work here.
Hepworth,
Your not really Paul Burrell by any chance…..
Peter.
Dean,
Do you really think it’s smart to draw attention to £400 spent by Alex salmond when the Tory shadow cabinet seem to be averaging ten times that.
People in Cyrstal Palace shouldn’t throw stones……
Peter.
Well you have to realise, Mr Cairns That the average blue collar potential BNP voter Does not log into this site and is rarely consulted by polsters. Hence the distortion. Yep Paul here.
Peter I shall condemn all politcians who are corrupt, I personally want to see a couple of my lots heads role into resignation. I shall not avoid the subject in fear of criticising my own.
Hepworth,
If the polsters, who have developed their methodology over years to reflect the make up of the electorate, are consistantly showing 3-5% for the BNP then it is probably between 3-5%.
The argument that it is higher than that but the polls are missing it doesn’t really stack up unless you can point to a particular facet of BNP support that means they are less likely to respond to polls.
Being blue collar or low income and not having a phone or a computer doesn’t wash, because all the polling companies continue to contact people if they don’t have enough the each type to make up a balanced poll.
In a phone poll you might need to make three or four times as many calls to get the number of low income voters as high income votes but they keep phoning until they do.
The BNP may well have pockets of support in areas of deprivation and that will have an effect. But in the vast majorityof these areas Labour weigh their vote so even if the Labour party do very badly in the Euros and Council elections the BNP will still be a tiny number of MEP’s and Councillors.
In all likelyhood the BNP will get a marginal boost come the European vote but they will all but disappear come the general election.
As for Scotland I’d say that the BNP will probably get less votes than the 20,000 (1.7%) they got in 2004. Actually i’d say that they will be well beaten by Christain Vote who only just beat them the last time.
Dean,
I’d suspect that Alex allowances will always be on the high side as as a party leader he has to do a fair bit more than the average back bench MP.
It will be interseting to see just what my own MP’s have spent when the full thing comes out in July , although I am particularly looking forward to seeing what Eric joyce has been claiming.
Peter.
Hepworth
This site is used by people interested in polls to comment on the findings of polls. It is not a channel for compiling polls. If it were it would give a very distorted result since, by definition, regular users are more interetsed in politics than the average voter.
The polling companies have diffeent methods for ensuring that they capture a broad and representative sample of the population in order to deliver reasonably accurate results reflecting the views of teh electorate at large. It is recognised by all involved in the process that the results cannot be consistently precise, and this should always be borne in mind when reading polls.
However, it should be accepted that if all polling companies show that a particular strand of opinion barely registers in their results, then it is extremely likely that this is but a small minority view.
The validity of polls is regularly tested against actual elections. Sometimes we see surprise results, but these are rare exceptions and not the norm.
You may think that the BNP is garnering significant support. But that may just be a consequence of your personal circumstances. It does not mean that this is a true reflection of the picture across the whole country.
Most people know a lot of people who have similar views to their own, and few who disagree profoundly with them on a wide range of issues. That is simply human nature – we prefer the company of those who are like us. But, those who are able to open their minds to new ideas are generally more successful than those who refuse to accept that there may be a different – and equally valid – view other than their own.
Building a philosophy on the basis of a closed mind is not conducive to success, whether in electoral or practical terms.
Hepworth,
Just reread your original post criticising Cllr Cairns.
You say that you are not partisan and do not vote. If that is a true statement, and is a view shared by other supporters of the BNP, then it matters not how much armchair support they have amongst blue collar workers, that will not translate into great victories.
Hepworth,
“Well you have to realise, Mr Cairns That the average blue collar potential BNP voter Does not log into this site and is rarely consulted by polsters.”
On the contrary for all their small support the BNP are particularly active and organised on the net and re always attempting to put their message across where ever they can.
That they don’t show up much here is because this being a site about polls which is very much evidence based, they don’t last long before their clames are rubbished for the propoganda they are.
Peter.
Green Party now up to 7%.
Labour are heading for one hell of a beating!
.