More Sunday polls

There are at least two voting intention polls in the Sunday papers, though so far we only have brief details.

A YouGov poll in the Sunday Times has topline voting intention figures of CON 43%(-2), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 18%(+1). The Conservatives are marginally below where they were at the end of April, though they remain safely in the 40s with Labour still down below 30.

Meanwhile a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday has voting intention figures, with changes from their last poll in mid-April, of CON 45%(nc), LAB 23%(-3), LDEM 17%(nc). This equals Labour’s lowest score this Parliament (indeed, I think it equals their lowest score ever).

Both of these polls likely had the majority of their fieldwork conducted before the expenses claims of the cabinet were published on Thursday night.

More to come later…


77 Responses to “More Sunday polls”

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  1. Some people are asking why the Liberal Democrats aren’t doing better.

    I think the answer lies in the fact that the fieldwork for these polls were conducted in large part before the extent of MPs Expenses as outlined in the Daily Telegraph became known.

    For polls whose fieldwork is being conducted now and in the next few days maybe we will indeed see the Liberal Democrats somewhere between 20-25%.

    What do people think?

  2. @Danboy

    There is/was a big difference between the Tories in 97 and the Labour Party now. Howsoever low the Conservative Party went, people always knew that they retained basic core philosophies, the most important of which was resistance to Statism and a belief in the power of individual choice.

    All the while, Labours basic stated or unstated philosophy was Public Spending = Good. The implication was always that if only they had the chance to have a meaningful amount of time and resources, they could prove this philosophy beyond doubt. In the past, they’d never had the opportunity to “do it properly” – suddenly, over the past 12 years, they did.

    Only a hermit in a cave somewhere would think today that this philosophy held water. Labour has now proved to itself, its supporters and everyone else in the country that the basic philosophy is a crock of **** (hint = not gold).

    If the LP suffers an electoral calamity, there is nothing left to hold on to. No core philosophy which retains any credibility. This was not true of the Tories, whatever else was thought of them at the time.

    So. Gordon Brown’s crowning achievement?

    Very possibly the extinction of the PLP as a meaningful force in British politics. I’m sure that very many people will reject this thesis out of hand. However, it is logical.

  3. Oh and by the way………

    Proper expenses strategy for Cameron?

    Identify some serious culprits. Put them in the same basket as Conway, where the Conservatives have set a proper precedent. Insist on a few by-elections to clean up the worse excesses.

    Impact? Kinda obvious………

    20+ labour seat by-elections anyone???

  4. I notice no mention of the dark horse: the BNP. Site policy?

  5. James – when the major Gov’t was in it’s dying days polls showed voting intention jumping straight to Blair’s New Labour.
    These polls are clearly good for the Tories but I maintain not great as a fall to under 40% risks the anti-Tory vote (which may still be a majority being energised. Great would be touching the 50% Ivan predicts.
    I eagerly await the Tory expense receipts but honestly don’t know how it will play out.

  6. Brett – Chorley ,

    I would agree with that. However I wouldn’t underestimate the loyalty of the core party base. It might be around 15/17%?

  7. It is clear that the vast majority of people agree that MPs should lose control of their own expenses.

    I wonder whether ordinary people are able to think this through. Abdication of control over their expenses by MPs to a Quango is in essence a limitation on democracy. And Quangos themselves far from always have a good record on impartiality, accountability or efficiency.

    The impartial House of Commons staff haven’t exactly kept MPs on the “straight and narrow ” recently in relation to expenses.

    After all, MPs. ARE being held to account. The voters may well turf some of them out over their claims. If they were left to run their own expenses, with suggested reforms and current publicity arrangements, they would certainly mend their ways pretty quickly. You could say that the current scandal actually shows that in the end the system works.

    I wonder how popular subservience of MPs to Quango control will be in a generation’s time.

    The short of it is that the Queen and Parliament has been, and should be, sovereign, but people are suggesting changes without thinking or understanding the threats that their proposals represent to this constitutional principle.

  8. im very open with my opinion of MP’s there all at it and not much chance of stopping that but if an inderpendent body is set up to limit MP’s exspances then it must be so and not have any MP speaker or parlimentary interfrance if this happens then the onl way forward will be to scrap the 2nd home payment for any MP living less than 100 miles from the commons.

  9. Not sure what your problem is, Frederic. MPs are subject to a range of regulations pertaining to their roles as MPs. Obviously these have to be policed somehow and the way it’s currently being done obviously isn’t working very well.

    Why should having their expenses overseen mean that they become “subservient to Quango control”?

  10. Brett – Chorley – I agree.

    What is left will form a circular firing squad which will reduce the “core” vote.

    But who will form the alternative?

    Despite the best MSM efforts to lable them right-wing, BNP are really hard left statists.

  11. Jeff Todd,

    Whenever I have pointed out that the BNP are a left-wing party, I get a cascade of abuse from Labour supporters who cannot accept that this is where about a quarter of their vote is going to go in June. (and another quarter is going to stay at home)

    We now have a government in meltdown, but don’t hold your breath waiting for Brown to seek a dissolution.

    There will probably be a motion of no-confidence in teh second week of June, but, unless enough Labour MPs either defect or abstain, Brown will claim that he in entitled to hang on even if he wins by just one vote.

  12. The tables are now up on the YouGov site and the Scottish figures are a bit of a surprise. It’s a small sample but the Tories are doing remarkably well.

    UK headline figures; Westminster.
    Lab 27%, Tory 43% LibDem 18% Others 12%.

    Scotland
    Lab 28%, Tory 29%, Libdem 10%, SNP 29%, Others 3%.

    Now I think Labour in third in Scotland really isn’t on but I suspect that the Tories are probably close to a high with possibly 23% a true figure, likewise the Libdems will be closer to 12%.

    However it does seem that over the last month or so Scottish feeling towards Brown, Labour and the economy seems to have turned. Scotland is still to the left of the rest of the UK but attitudes seem to have shifted and the Scots tendency to almost tribally defend Brown seems to have faded.

    The Euro scores are;

    UK;
    Lab 25%, Tory 36%, LibDem 20%, UKIP 7%, BNP/Green/SNP-PC all 4% each.

    Scotland
    Lab 25%, Tory 23%, LibDem 8% UKIP 1%, BNP 1%, Green 1%, SNP 37%.

    On these figures the LibDems would lose their MEP and the SNP Lab and Tories would get 2 each although their is the outside chance of the SNP picking up three. Three seats would be a brilliant result and it would send shock wave through Scotland if it was the Tories that got two to Labours one.

    So overall an interesting poll. I would emphasis again that I think the last few weeks of dreadful news for the Government have shifted the polls in Scotland, but I doubt think this sample size gives us enough to say more than Labour have been weakened and that it’s the SNP and Tories who are benefiting.

    It will be interesting to see how the expenses claims impacts in Scotland. There was a story about Alex salmond claiming £800 for food when the parliament wasn’t sitting at the weekend but given that half the cabinet seem to have had suspect claims in the thousands ( tens of thousands in some cases) I can’t see it doing major damage to the SNP.

    Of course when the whole thing comes out in July all our MP’s will be under the spotlight like anyone else but with less than ten MP’s I doubt we will have the same volume of stories as Labour with about forty.

    Peter.

  13. cllr peter cairns.
    I don’t know which fantasy world you live in, but 4% for the BNP? I am non-partisan and do not vote but you seem to be driven by your party. I read all news reports and by-election results. It seems that you and most of the polsters have woefully underestimated the mood of the counrty.

  14. Hepworth.

    The 4% figure was the one from the YouGov poll, so if you have a problem with it take it up with them.

    As to the 1% figure for the BNP in Scotland, well I won’t be surprised if it isn’t much higher than that.

    Last election the BNP got 5% I doubt they will get above 6% this time.

    Peter.

  15. Hepworth

    Whatever potential BNP supporters may think, the figures quoted by Cllr Cairns are those found in the Poll. There is nothing partisan in reporting the data as published.

    So, either
    a. support for the BNP is only in the region of 4%; or
    b. BNP supporters are not being honest in their response to polls; or
    c. BNP support is concentrated amongst people not contacted by the polling agencies.

    There may be some truth in both (b) and (c), which would lead to the level of support for BNP being understated, but it is unlikely to be out by more than 2-4% overall – giving a max BNP score of 6-8% nationally.

    If you read this site carefully, you will find that that is reflected amongst the comments, even if not shown in actual opinion poll results.

  16. I have seen the same polls as Cllr. Peter and I have to say that the Scottish Tories actual figure is perhaps somewhere between 21-16%, however the TNS system 3 polls seem to contradict this with a tory figure of 19% (lower than I’d have thought, and lower than all other major polls), and the SNP seem to be holding 27-33% area, again with some polls contradicting that (but they are wholly unreliable in my opinion due to the absence of weighted data etc).

    The Euro elections will be a good indicator for how well they all do, but my prediction for Scotland is 2:2:2 (Lab, SNP, Tory), and if that is the case then we can expect a major Tory revival in Scotland, with a SNP growth way above that expected in 2005, but less so than 2007.

    Oh, and Peter I did clock that Salmond article and wasted no time putting it up on my Blog! (I went for a tasteful Sun copying ‘Gotcha’ headline)

  17. sorry that should be 21-26%

  18. Paul hj.
    So you think that every thing you read is the truth?
    There are many forces at work here.

  19. Hepworth,

    Your not really Paul Burrell by any chance…..

    Peter.

  20. Dean,

    Do you really think it’s smart to draw attention to £400 spent by Alex salmond when the Tory shadow cabinet seem to be averaging ten times that.

    People in Cyrstal Palace shouldn’t throw stones……

    Peter.

  21. Well you have to realise, Mr Cairns That the average blue collar potential BNP voter Does not log into this site and is rarely consulted by polsters. Hence the distortion. Yep Paul here.

  22. Peter I shall condemn all politcians who are corrupt, I personally want to see a couple of my lots heads role into resignation. I shall not avoid the subject in fear of criticising my own.

  23. Hepworth,

    If the polsters, who have developed their methodology over years to reflect the make up of the electorate, are consistantly showing 3-5% for the BNP then it is probably between 3-5%.

    The argument that it is higher than that but the polls are missing it doesn’t really stack up unless you can point to a particular facet of BNP support that means they are less likely to respond to polls.

    Being blue collar or low income and not having a phone or a computer doesn’t wash, because all the polling companies continue to contact people if they don’t have enough the each type to make up a balanced poll.

    In a phone poll you might need to make three or four times as many calls to get the number of low income voters as high income votes but they keep phoning until they do.

    The BNP may well have pockets of support in areas of deprivation and that will have an effect. But in the vast majorityof these areas Labour weigh their vote so even if the Labour party do very badly in the Euros and Council elections the BNP will still be a tiny number of MEP’s and Councillors.

    In all likelyhood the BNP will get a marginal boost come the European vote but they will all but disappear come the general election.

    As for Scotland I’d say that the BNP will probably get less votes than the 20,000 (1.7%) they got in 2004. Actually i’d say that they will be well beaten by Christain Vote who only just beat them the last time.

    Dean,

    I’d suspect that Alex allowances will always be on the high side as as a party leader he has to do a fair bit more than the average back bench MP.

    It will be interseting to see just what my own MP’s have spent when the full thing comes out in July , although I am particularly looking forward to seeing what Eric joyce has been claiming.

    Peter.

  24. Hepworth

    This site is used by people interested in polls to comment on the findings of polls. It is not a channel for compiling polls. If it were it would give a very distorted result since, by definition, regular users are more interetsed in politics than the average voter.

    The polling companies have diffeent methods for ensuring that they capture a broad and representative sample of the population in order to deliver reasonably accurate results reflecting the views of teh electorate at large. It is recognised by all involved in the process that the results cannot be consistently precise, and this should always be borne in mind when reading polls.

    However, it should be accepted that if all polling companies show that a particular strand of opinion barely registers in their results, then it is extremely likely that this is but a small minority view.

    The validity of polls is regularly tested against actual elections. Sometimes we see surprise results, but these are rare exceptions and not the norm.

    You may think that the BNP is garnering significant support. But that may just be a consequence of your personal circumstances. It does not mean that this is a true reflection of the picture across the whole country.

    Most people know a lot of people who have similar views to their own, and few who disagree profoundly with them on a wide range of issues. That is simply human nature – we prefer the company of those who are like us. But, those who are able to open their minds to new ideas are generally more successful than those who refuse to accept that there may be a different – and equally valid – view other than their own.

    Building a philosophy on the basis of a closed mind is not conducive to success, whether in electoral or practical terms.

  25. Hepworth,

    Just reread your original post criticising Cllr Cairns.

    You say that you are not partisan and do not vote. If that is a true statement, and is a view shared by other supporters of the BNP, then it matters not how much armchair support they have amongst blue collar workers, that will not translate into great victories.

  26. Hepworth,

    “Well you have to realise, Mr Cairns That the average blue collar potential BNP voter Does not log into this site and is rarely consulted by polsters.”

    On the contrary for all their small support the BNP are particularly active and organised on the net and re always attempting to put their message across where ever they can.

    That they don’t show up much here is because this being a site about polls which is very much evidence based, they don’t last long before their clames are rubbished for the propoganda they are.

    Peter.

  27. Green Party now up to 7%.

    Labour are heading for one hell of a beating!

    .

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