ComRes’s monthly poll for the Independent is out, and shows topline figures of CON 45%(+5), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 17%(-1). Changes are from the last ComRes poll, carried out at the end of March.

The figures are almost the same as yesterday’s YouGov poll in the Sunday People. We haven’t had any post-budget figures from ICM, Populus or MORI yet, but so far it is looking as if, between the rows over MPs expenses, “smeargate” and the budget, we have seen a further shift against Labour and we are back into Tory landslide territory. Obviously there is a long way to go until a 2010 election, but the June local and European elections aren’t looking pretty for Labour.


355 Responses to “ComRes show 19 point Tory lead”

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  1. After the ‘spring rush’ turned out to be a damp squib all the new houses put back onto the market recently due to slightly more optimistic expectations will drag prices lower still over the summer.

    You heard it here first; oversupply will drive prices down another 10% by december. just about the time the government will be forced to allow interest rates to higher I suspect.

    I can see Labour shedding another 2-3% vote share before it’s all over.

  2. @Mark – taking glee at bad economic news speaks volumes on the mentality of people like you! Typical Con if I ever saw one.

    It’s this obsession with bad news and shouting down, rubbishing and ignoring of any promising news stories will be identified as major contributor to the situation we face today.

  3. This natural assumption that their vote share will grow is incredibly arrogant and hilarous – I think the opposite! When they start to have put some policies down and not empty headline grabbing toot I can see and hope this lead will soon disintergrate. Tthe astonishing free ride they’ve enjoyed will soon be over even by their far right press pals.

    There’s already wispers of splits in the Cons because of the massive cuts they are planning – soon this won’t be burried and remind the public what the Cons stand for.

  4. “I’m obsessed with the idea of the country going to the dogs because we’ve spent all our cash on 20 million toothbrush advisers. ”

    I feel you are getting a bit confused john-so much has happened it is sometimes difficult to remember the sequence of events.

    Dental hygene in our children suffered as a result of the underfunding of the state dental service, compounded by the botched new contract which saw dentists leaving the NHS in droves.

    At this time Bankers were good people because they were making lots of money, and Gordon liked them because he got lot’s of their money in taxes-not enough of which he spent on toothbrush advisers ( known at that time as NHS dentists.)

    Then the Bankers found that they had a lot of bad debts , and Gordon decided he had to give them all their taxes back so they wouldn’t go bust. He decided “Bankers” were now bad people-but none of this made any difference to childrens’ teeth which continued to be as bad as they were when Bankers were good people.

    Now however , because all the Dentists have left the NHS, they too have become bad people, and are being replaced by “toothbrush advisers”-which we cannot now afford because all the Bankers have got our money-or their money back depending how you see it.

    So the toothbrush problem is , as you can see, just another example of Gordon not fixing the toothbrush, when the toothbrush fairy was smiling.

    Now the toothbrush fairy has gone, along with the dentists & the bankers & it’s all a bit of an oral & financial mess.

  5. ‘Why though do Labour supporters always defend every single penny of government spend when it is clear that at least some is ‘wasted’?’ Ivan

    Be careful of the generalisations Ivan – ‘always’. The obvious riposte here is why do Conservatives always believe all govt spending is wrong and should only be done by private companies. Neither position is true.

    As the old line goes Ivan–all generalisations are false.

    I think neither extreme is accurate, but when you, Ivan, posit total generalisations about human behaviour (such as Labour supporters) you are asking for whatever else you are arguing to be ignored as it suggests your world view is so totally black or white that I (for one) can not be bothered with the rest of your argument as it it based on a false premise (namely the Labour supporters total generalistion -okay some generalistions are true such as the sun will rise tomorrow).

    Seriously Ivan, learn the difference between discussing a point and between making rash generalisations that make you look foolish. Your statement about Labour supporters ”always’ doing something requires you to have evidence that every single Labour supporter does something. There is no way you can know that. To make your argument more reasonable you needed to phrase it more along the lines of ‘ many / most of’ then you could have proceeded with an argument that might have encouraged people to read your comment.

    I would suggest that many of us know labour supporters who do not support every single penny of govt spending which is the basis of your ridiculous generalisation; I would nominate the areas of ID cards, G20 policing, kicking Gurkhas out, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would find at least one Labour supporter opposing govt spending and, as such, it points to the absurdity of your comment.

  6. ‘You heard it here first; oversupply will drive prices down another 10% by december. just about the time the government will be forced to allow interest rates to higher I suspect.’ Ivan

    And please stop making predictions for the future; you can not possibly know this. Of course, we can all make a guess about anything but it hardly counts as intelligent discussion, which is what this area is meant to be amount. If you want to play random guessing games please do it elsewhere…

  7. @Chris

    I take glee at a fall in house prices, not because I am a Conservative, but because I am a prospective first time buyer.

    Sure, I feel bad for those in negative equity but I didn’t force them to overborrow so I don’t see why I should feel bad because I waited rather than trying to get in on the boom.

  8. @Jack

    Unless we’re random guessing about the election, but that will have to wait until election night :)

  9. Neil – I would agree it was all the fault of the tri-partite system IF the financial crisis had started here, and not been imported. The banks are global institutions and relied for their confidence on credit agencies that were outside the remit of the FSA

    It’s no good blaming only our Govt – you have to blame the US Govt, the Icelandic Govt and all the others whose banks almost went pop.

    Re confidence – what would it have done to our sytem if they’d allowed the banks to fall? The great myth that all opposition politicians allow (probably out of their own self-interest) is that the banks were saved to suit them, and not the wider interests of the economy.

    Colin – you have clearly been drinking the mouthwash instead of swilling it. We can’t afford bad teeth, and we can’t afford dentists, so the best thing is to send out free toothbrushes and a Tooth Tsar to make up for the disgraceful cuts that destroyed the dental service. I can’t remember when, but I think it started before the botched contract.

  10. “This natural assumption that their vote share will grow is incredibly arrogant and hilarous – I think the opposite! ”

    But in thinking the opposite Chris, do I assume that you are not incredibly arrogant and hilarious, but incredibly modest and realistic ?

  11. There is a lot of discussion on here about dental hygene and not much about polls. Anthony must be away!!

  12. @Chris what do you have to say about the well in excess of a billion pounds that Labour have spent on their failed tactics on dealing with truancy. And the increasing numbers of parents who have been jailed simply because they were not strong enough mentally and physically to force their 15 year old son/daughter to go to school.

    Don’t you think that increasing the compulsory age at which a person can leave education will make things worse?

    Don’t you think that instead of aggressively usurping parental authority regarding education that Labour would do better to listen respectfully and respond realistically and constructively to the challenges they face?

  13. Maybe he has taken a job as a toothbrush advisor. From soothsayer to toothslayer!

  14. maybe we should discuss whether or not the polls have been affected by a decay-ed of waste hoho

  15. Not that I wish to grind anyone down in debate

  16. …but then I guess it is a good way of FILLING in time between polls

  17. Nigel – Nice one! I’ve been toiling away waiting for a decent punchline for hours.

    So it’s all the govt’s fault for not making people take more responsibility. Who’s fault is it that Govt gets the blame? The Govt’s of course. Same Govt that gets it in the neck when it interferes. Also gets it in the neck when it doesn’t.

    I think people relate to Govt like a spouse in a bad marriage – very soon after the honeymoon the defects appear and nothing can be done apart from wait for the recriminations. Hope, Happiness, Disappointment, Disillusionment, Despar. And then some-one better comes along. And the whole process starts again.

  18. I bet Brown’s aas fed up to the back teeth as the rest of us.

  19. johntt @ :-
    “I can’t remember when, but I think it started before the botched contract.”

    Doesn’t seem so john:-

    Childrens Dental Health Survey 2003
    Preliminary Findings

    National Statistics Office
    Key findings :-

    • The proportion of five and eight-year-olds with filled primary teeth has declined since 1983.
    • There has been a decrease in the average number of filled primary teeth in both five and eight-year-olds.
    • The proportion of eight, 12 and 15-year-olds with permanent teeth with cavities into
    dentine and permanent teeth with obvious decay experience has decreased.
    .There was a decrease in the proportion of 12 and 15-year-olds with filled permanent
    teeth.
    The average number of permanent teeth with cavities into dentine or obvious decay experience among eight, 12 and 15-year-olds decreased between the 1993 and 2003surveys.

    Then :-

    New NHS Dentists Contract -April 2006

    Then :-
    The Independent
    Friday, 6 June 2008

    “New contracts for dentists have been an failure, ministers were told yesterday as new figures showed the number of people seeing a dentist had slumped by nearly a million since they were introduced.”

  20. @JohnTT
    “IF the financial crisis had started here, and not been imported”

    While not wanting to deny America’s share of the problem, the Wikipedia timeline shows

    Sep 07 – Northern Rock seeks support from BoE
    Feb 08 – NR nationalised
    Mar 08 – Bear Stearns collapses
    Sep 08 – Global financial crisis
    Oct 08 – Iceland’s major banks nationalised

    While hindsight is a wonderful thing, would proper regulation not have said in Sep 07 ‘Hmm, now what has happened at NR, and are any other institutions at risk?’. Interest rates were still at 5% going into Sep 08. Poor regulation both sides of the Atlantic caused this. We are not blameless.

  21. Does this post hold the record for the number of comments attributed to it (currently 273 and counting)?

  22. Poor regulation both sides of the Atlantic caused this.

    I atand by my belief that the regulkators can’t be held responsible for the deed of the people they are there to regulate – any more than you (I presume) would allow the govt to be blamed for a child not brushing properly.

    Colin – well-researched as ever. So the Govt should do all it can to improve matters, like spending money on oral hygiene.

  23. I think we are desperately awaiting a new post to appear…..

    If we all shout out at the same time “I do believe in (tooth) fairies”, then Anthony will reappear and give us something new to talk about!

  24. Andrew – you, and now I, have distorted any true measurement by contributing in that manner.

    Mark – by the time NR went down it was already too late to do anything.

    Cutting interest rates then might have helped, but the errors were already in the system.

  25. @John
    Indeed. Heysenberg’s Uncertainty Principal at work :)

  26. I’d like to know the root cause of all the problems with the dental contract

  27. Particularly whilst Gordon is fighting tooth and nail for his political life

  28. @John T T – Polland seem to be ok, do I congratulate their government or other governments as well?

    also there is nothing I can do about other governments, but I can sure vote this lot out with a few like minded thinkers to help me out :-). America is not accountable to me, but GB is.

  29. Thank you Jack for your useful guidance on, most recently, how to write without ‘generalising’ and, previously, on your rather ‘laissez-faire’ views about the correct use of apostrophes in English.

    I especially liked;

    “Normally what is meant by ‘apostrophe abuse’ is that a particular use of the apostrophe does not match the reader- normally a middle class, conservative person educated in say the 1960s rejecting an alternative which they see as lesser.”

    I hope we can both agree that we’re all capable of generalisations occasionally.

    It’s just that Labour supporters ALWAYS seem to get personal! ;-)

  30. John TT

    Bad marriages usually arise because one or other party (or both) has entered into the bargain too hastily and/or with unreal expectations, and then is either unwilling / unable to adjust those expectations to reality and put in the effort needed to overcome the ensuing problems in cooperation with their partner.

    The way you describe it suggests that the problem is with the institution, and not the parties involved. Your solution, that one should hope for something better to come along, is a classic example of externalising responsibility.

    We are all, as individuals, responsible for our own actions (or inaction). If we are dissatisfied with the outcome, then we should look at what we have done (or failed to do) and how we can do better. To put the onus on an external party to do that for us is to act like a child.

    That is what the Age of Irresponsibility has done for us.

  31. OK, I know I’ve been very guilty on occassions in the past, but there does seem to be a need for everyone to look at Anthony’s “Comments Policy” .

    He will be less than enamalled with all of us if we don’t get back on thread

  32. If we can I promise to quite the dentist jokes. Sorry, but someone had to have the gum-ption to say something

  33. @ John TT
    On regulators and responsibility. In a sense I agree the regulators themselves cant be blamed too much in this case as they had to work in a system not fit for purpose and were not experienced enough to deal with the situation they found themselves in.

    The main responsibility for their inability to act earlier lies with those who changed the regulatory environment. The previous people who worked at the Bank of England who used to do the regulation all left when this moved to the FSA and new people came in from lawyers, accountants etc who had no experience of regulating. The previous people and system would have had better and more relevant experience to spot the property hedge funds that were Northern Rock and BOS masquerading as banks. They also would have been more likely to do something about it.

    The recession would still have happened but we would have been in a better position than we are now. I.e. with a bankrupt government, consumer and pension black hole but at least with functioning banks.

    Obvious this is all conjecture and opinion, but in my opinion having people in place who have the correct experience to do their job is usually a good thing. Especially if the consequences of failure to do that job effects lots of other people.

  34. hmmm – not a single mention of the word poll in that last contribution. i’m running out of Toothbrush Advisor jokes too!!

  35. No great floss I suppose!

  36. Keir – Did you mean Holland or poland?

    Lebanon are OK too.

    Incumbent Govts all get the blame, whichever side of the centre they are.

    Paul – if only my first wife had met you, I’d still be thoroughly miserable :)

  37. hey, I have a great idea, why don’t we discuss opinion polls in a non-partisan way?

  38. Nigel – I think you should amalgamate your jokes into one post. You deserve a medal – and a crown.

  39. How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

    Or it that a bit too off-topic?

  40. Did anyone mention that it was tooth hurtie?

  41. @John T T – but who do we blame if it’s still going well?

  42. @NigelJ – you’re funny

  43. There seem to be quite a few comments, both by John T T, and others, about “moving into the centre”, etc.

    Perhaps it isn’t that politicians move to the centre, but that the centre moves to them?

    I think it’s fairly non-judgemental to say that Heath/Callaghan were far more in the paternalist/state-governed tradition than Major/Blair, and that anyone who advocated renationalising telecommunications, railways, water, etc, might be considered, today, far to the left.

    However, in 1975, the idea of privatising them (i.e. to today’s current situation) would, I suspect, have been a rather radical neoliberal/right-wing idea.

    Doesn’t this suggest that the middle-ground, or “centre”, shifts with the public opinion at large, and that, perhaps, our perception of “centre” changes as much as politicians’ positions do?

  44. John TT, 12.23pm:

    “The great myth that all opposition politicians allow (probably out of their own self-interest) is that the banks were saved to suit them, and not the wider interests of the economy.”

    OK, now this discussion has gone full circle – initially I was the one defending the bankers. If the bigger banks (e.g. RBS, HBOS, Lloyds) were not saved the economy would have gone down the pan – I know that. Interestingly, the people I tend to see at my university with placards saying “bailout students not bankers” and such like, tend to be the ones who you also see selling the Socialist Worker – so not exactly the Conservative party’s core vote.

    Somewhat less defensible was saving Northern Rock.

  45. Maybe I should feel gulty about starting the comments on this Poll, given the number of comments.

    However in my defence I did suggest to Anthony some months ago, when whe was seeking thoughts on this site, that comments should be limited to say 100.

    I have to say I think I would make the same suggestion now.

  46. I agree with Richard Manns. Blimey.

    Keir – David D has accepted responsibility for the wqhole thing. Good man.

    if there’s a limit of 100, I volunteer to have all but one of my comments removed. That should do the trick.

  47. DAVID D

    If Anthony doesn’t like it he will tell us to stop.

    Meantime people are enjoying themselves here. God knows we could all do with a laugh.

    What the hell has the number of comments got to do with anything?

  48. Colin – go on do the 300th.

    mark M – I’m sick of the “hypotheticals” IFIFIF . Woodchuicks can’t (or won’t?) chuck wood, and should never have been encouraged to think that they could.

  49. It’s taken a while, but I have at last thought of the best dental joke of all….why did Gordon mess up the Dental contract and do so badly in the latest poll?

    Because he was doing his Mc CAVITY act

    And I know that how ever much you try to drill down into the details you will be unable to find anything to suggest he will be able to BRIDGE the GAP in the polls

    Right I think I am all joked out on this one. It really has been a GAS.

    I am sure Anthony will be back soon and be reminding us all of the cement policy

  50. Tsk. Anthony goes off for a few days to participate in a jousting tournament and look what you lot get up to while he’s busy tilting.

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