There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sunday People. I can’t find an online source yet, but Sky TV reports it as showing topline figures of CON 45%(nc), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 17%(-1).

These figures are almost identical to the previous YouGov poll, not particularly surprisingly given it was only carried out a a few days ago for the Daily Telegraph.

Sky News also reports a majority of people supporting the actual measures contained in the budget, echoing the YouGov/Telegraph and Populus/Times polls. 64% said the supported the increase in income tax, 82% the increase in tobacco tax and 66% the increase in beer tax.

As I wrote after the Populus snap poll came out however, budgets are often more than the sum of their parts. While people said that they supported the measures in the budget, only 5% said it made them more likely to support Labour, 23% said it made them less likely to vote Labour.


153 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday People poll shows 18 point lead”

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  1. Chris,
    If you think the scale of this crash and the boom which preceded it are unrelated, you are very misguided. I reckon even John TT wont attempt to deny that.

  2. ‘Unfortunately for people on the left like you and Wood, it appears the population are starting to think anything would be better than the disaster that is Gordon “No more boom and bust”’

    Mind you, even ignoring the current economic position–how many parties in British history would be eyeing off another term? Seriously, one of the strengths of democracy remains the fact that-nearly on principle- the electorate gets bored with whoever is in power as they have annoyed enough people and will throw a current govt . out no mater what.

    One notes, in particular how John Howard’;s govt in Australia was thrown out at the height of the boom because people finally had had enough and just wanted change.

  3. M – “One thing is true, that only biased Labour supporters can deny, is that Gordon Brown has brought the UK to within touching distance of financial collapse. The borrowing and spending while we were booming. The humongous borrowing now. We are right on the edge and its been GB and GB alone that has been in control of our finances the whole time.”

    Cobblers. We’re not on the brink of anything. We’ll exit the recession borrowing 79% of GDP. So still less than the few economies bigger than ours – Germany, America, Japan. There are ups and down to all situations. We have the biggest budget deficit at the moment. We also have an economy slowing less rapidly and lower unemployment.

    The frothers seem very excitable about the idea that post-budget (a) the markets tanked (b) currencies tanked and (c) our credit rating is about to be dropped. None of those things have actually happened in real life, let I keep reading about them on various fora.

    So is there a fantasy world being talked up by fans of Cameron? Do Tories really want the economy to die and the recession to be as long and deep as possible? And why not – you can blame it on Brown anyway, and it gives the opportunity for the kind of axe-swinging cuts at such fripperies as teachers’ pay and pensions that gives a warm glow to their hearts.

  4. The noose which is tightening on Labour ‘s chosen tactical position becomes more evident with the passage of time .

    Alan Johnson this evening, in response to Cameron’s speech at Cheltenham said this (paraphrasing)

    Cons would “cut deeply in a recession”.
    We will keep spending until the recession is over-then we will “correct the public finances”

    Note the weasel words-Cons “cut”.- Labour “corrects”.
    Note that if Cons win a 2010 GE; according to Darling the recession will have ended, so Johnson’s statement is a non sequitur.

    If labour insist on sticking with “spend” vs “cuts” this noose will simply go on tightening.:-

    If Q1 2010 looks like vindicating Darling, Labour will have to turn to the question of Public Finances “correction” -aka cuts-in the GE campaign. This will destroy all they stand for & level the playing field with Cons -and anyway Opinion Polls indicate a desire for a changed Government whatever the outcome of the recession.

    If Q1 2010 looks like Darling was wrong (again)-when everyone has just been telling him he would be wrong, all Labour is left with is -ah well we will go on throwing money at it-Cons will start cutting Public Spending.

    Is that a winning strategy from a credible Government?

  5. “One thing is true, that only biased Labour supporters can deny, is that Gordon Brown has brought the UK to within touching distance of financial collapse. The borrowing and spending while we were booming. The humongous borrowing now. We are right on the edge and its been GB and GB alone that has been in control of our finances the whole time.”

    What a load of rubbish….we aren’t on the brink of anything, and we aren’t all going to be killed by swine flu…and it isn’t GBs fault. I agree very strongly with the point that he should’ve been using the boom years to save not borrow, but we’d still be in the same situation we are now, just with less interest to pay at the end of it….and do you really think Camerons probably soon to be govt will generate more surpluses than Browns, seeing as IIRC Brown is the only person whose done so post war….

    GB could have and should have done a lot better with the boom years, but I don’t believe the conservatives would have in that respect if they’d been in power, and it’s ludicrous to say that the situation we’re in is entirely his fault….although not as ludicrous as it is to say that the UK is on the brink of financial collapse.

    No wonder you think I’m a labour supporter in comparison if you honestly believe any of what you wrote….

  6. Ian,
    Like I say, only biased Labour supporters are denying it.

    Re: exiting the recession borrowing 79% of GDP, you seem so certain of that. Where did you get it from? Oh thats right. Alistair Darlings forecasting.

    (79% is of course double the figure Gordon Brown pledged not to go over.)

    No doubt you are expecting 3.5% growth in 2011 right?

  7. The recession seems to be bringing the parties back clearer to their respective wings, with conservatives going for spending cuts (while avoiding using the word cut completely) and labour going for tax rises. I’m not sure that’s a limited position for labour, it’s just a clear left/right divide….in theory the public would like cuts over tax rises, but in practice the only cuts that make much difference are to things the public definitely doesn’t want cutting, whereas they’re relatively happy with tax rises that’re specifically against the very rich, or smokers or similar….

    I’m not by any means saying that it’ll help labour that much while the recession stays like this (and so long as the conservatives are very careful about what they mention spending less on), but purely pitting increased targeted taxes against cutting govt spending….the public will, and does, in reality prefer higher taxes.

    “The noose which is tightening on Labour ’s chosen tactical position becomes more evident with the passage of time .

    Alan Johnson this evening, in response to Cameron’s speech at Cheltenham said this (paraphrasing)

    Cons would “cut deeply in a recession”.
    We will keep spending until the recession is over-then we will “correct the public finances”

    Note the weasel words-Cons “cut”.- Labour “corrects”.
    Note that if Cons win a 2010 GE; according to Darling the recession will have ended, so Johnson’s statement is a non sequitur.

    If labour insist on sticking with “spend” vs “cuts” this noose will simply go on tightening.:-

    If Q1 2010 looks like vindicating Darling, Labour will have to turn to the question of Public Finances “correction” -aka cuts-in the GE campaign. This will destroy all they stand for & level the playing field with Cons -and anyway Opinion Polls indicate a desire for a changed Government whatever the outcome of the recession.

    “If Q1 2010 looks like Darling was wrong (again)-when everyone has just been telling him he would be wrong, all Labour is left with is -ah well we will go on throwing money at it-Cons will start cutting Public Spending.

    Is that a winning strategy from a credible Government?”

    I don’t think any strategy could possibly be winning if the economy hasn’t started to improve by the election, but I don’t think the cons should put all their eggs in the economy basket on the off chance it starts booming again next year….

    And yes, most people probably noticed the weasel words, and every party uses them.

  8. Why are the Tories doing so badly in local council elections including losing a seat to Labour this week?

  9. M, if you insist on saying that the UK is going to collapse financially, how about you bet a few grand on it? afterall, when the UKs financial collapse it won’t be worth anything anyway….

    You are claiming that only biased labour supporters are denying something that no credible institution or economist thinks will happen…..is the entire world made up of labour supporters?

    The gap between this sites comments policy and the actual reality seems a lot bigger now I’m engaging in the discussions myself….I’d respectfully suggest a heavier touch with regards to moderation. I am trying to remain neutral, but I realise I may be appearing labourite if only because the comments I’m disputing are coming from an obvious con.

  10. @Ian – Amen to every single word!

  11. @ Ian – it’s all very well claiming “we’re not on the brink of anything” but the country has plenty of people like me right now, trying to sell a house in an almost entirely stagnant market, an employer which has just announced it’s making 210 people redundant (fortunately I’m not one of those but I know some of the people for the chop) and two long-standing local shops now boarded up. No amount of spin is going to convince voters that things they are experiencing themselves aren’t really happening.

  12. No Wood, you are appearing Labourite because everything you said in your first post was optimistic for Labour and pessimistic for the Tories.

    “put a big smile on the face of someone … and is plesantly surprised to find that that Brown has knocked 2k off that car they were planning on buying”

    LOL

    “Cameron has started talking about his parties budget being….this presents him with somewhat of a problem… The standard claim of being more efficient that every opposition makes has been very well pre-emptively neutralised …although of course I’m sure Cameron will still make the claim…”

    “The best options for Cameron to go for are probably:
    ==To raise a stink about how terrible (he thinks) Browns MP pay reforms are….but he can’t use this alone…”

    “==Talking about the costly wars, this isn’t that great an option…”

    “==ID cards…a perfect example… in which case Brown gets the credit, as he can easily blame the whole concept on Blair…”

    “Overall Cameron is in an excellent situation, but Brown has put him on tricky ground with the budget … it may be that the biggest difference between this budget and the conservative manifesto is the 50% tax, and all other things being equal….I think that’s a win for Labour.”

    “Of course, other things are far far from equal, but I do think the budget was pretty clever”

    Budget was pretty clever? Ill give you one thing, you are certainly capable of not following the crowd.

  13. No offense Chris, but statements such as “I’m from a view that when the Cons finally have to start committing to policies, especially economic, and move away from hinsight led airy fairy headline focused dribble they will come up wanting and be exposed as the part-time amatures they really are.” Hardly seem cool headed…..hell I’m falling out with everyone aren’t I, bad thing for a newby….I need a blog.

    Or a megaphone….

  14. If I could try to stride through the partisan ‘left right blame game’ going on here, I think what is happening is that the ‘global’ argument presented by Labour is no longer working because of the state of the nations finances.

    ‘Global’ worked when we were all crashing and tumbling down, and that’s why we had the Brown Bounce. Now we’ve had the crash and people are looking forward to see where things are, they are not liking the prospect of 12% GDP deficits and 80% GDP debt as ‘best case scenarios’.

    They see other countries who have also gone through this ‘global’ downturn and realise that ours is going to be one of the most heavily indebted as a result, and they are blaming the government for that, hence the current position.

    Of course, I’m open to suggestion if others have different (non-partisan) ideas.

  15. @Wood – Take your point – just some of the deluded Con posts do tend to wind me up! Ignorance and hindsight are 2 things I can’y abide and are prime characters of the Con party!

  16. I take the view of borrowing in bad times and paying back in good is not a crazy economic policy – doing nothing and keeping your head down that’s the crazy part!

    This poll is showing a lead for Labour on managing the economic crisis. So how can you argue the Cons policy is right especially when you argue the country is virtually bankrupt? Or is it that a growing number is questioning what the Cons would actually do and the government are on the right path?

  17. Excellent quote mining M, have you considered a career in politics? :p

    I can see how the cars comment could be taken the wrong way, I was trying to say how I think some parts of the budget would have an affect over longer slower periods, as an example I gave people experiencing massively cheaper car prices….the whole of what you selectedly quoted being

    “I’m personally thinking it could take a little while longer for the budget to completely kick in to polls, things like the two grand off new cars are slow burners that will put a big smile on the face of someone who doesn’t pay much attention to ‘boring political news’ and is plesantly surprised to find that that Brown has knocked 2k off that car they were planning on buying….”

    I realise it sounds like praise for Brown, but I merely intended to point out that people who weren’t really paying much attention to the budget (sadly most of the population) are going to suddenly have very good feelings towards brown if they go to buy a car…..

  18. Agree with Mark M with regards to people like us who pay attention to these things, but also think a significant portion of the pop just blames the govt for times being hard and doesn’t think about %s much….

  19. Have to agree with ‘Woods’ comments on the moderation of this thread. I also don’t understand his being labelled a leftist by M. Weird comment, given Woods comments.

    The polls are dire for Labour, they could be in meltdown, and I bet they wished there were no elections in a months time. However, the poll hit has been caused by Darling’s honest approach to the projected debt levels. These worry people, but IF the economy turns by May 2010 they may worry people less that another ‘big axe’ Tory government. I repeat previous comments – the VAT cut seems to be working, which is why retail sales are holding up. Quantitative easing is beginning to free up credit to a degree. Businesses got a £1.6b package to help investment. UK GDP decline is likely to be less than US, Japan, Germany. In 12 months time will the electorate be quite so sure of a man who believes a slightly higher tax on the richest 1% ‘isn’t right for Britain’?

    M – don’t froth at the mouth and accuse me of being a leftie too. I just happen to believe that Labour may have some ammunition to fire in the GE campaign – probably not enough, but a couple of Tory scandals, a month or too of better economic news, attention on the Tory’s new found love for cutting spending – who knows.

  20. Incidentally – I did wonder why a 2.5p in the £ tax cut doesn’t make any difference to people’s spending, but a 5p in the £ increase in tax is enough to send the mega wealthy into exile. As ever, different income levels live by different rules I guess.

  21. Its a 10p increase, 40% to 50%.

    I have to disagree about “Darlings honest approach to the projected debt levels.” I felt the projections were far from honest. Either not honest, or just delusional. Those projections are on some very optimistic GDP (ie tax revenue) assumptions. Indeed many have been saying he *had* to manufacture those GDP estimates so that he could get away with his intended borrowing numbers.

    I think Mark M’s summation was very reasonable. Even if he did give it in a very boring, non-partisan way.

  22. Wolf,

    “Why are the Tories doing so badly in local council elections including losing a seat to Labour this week?”

    a.) They are not. Tory wins in 2009 so far, 30 (-4)
    Labour,16 (-3)
    (out of 67 total)
    http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/byelections/

    b.) Local by elections have almost no correlation to voter opinion nationally anyway.

  23. Alec. You don’t seem to understand that it is likely that
    the Government may shortly have difficulty in funding the State’s borrowing requirement at acceptable rates of interest. In this scenario the Government will be forced to attempt to drastically cut public expenditure this year.

    Fortunately your view about Darling’s “honest approach to the projected debt levels” does not seem to be shared by the Public, the IMF or other leading forecastors. Arguably the growth assumptions are grossly optimistic.

  24. @Chris

    You argue that the Cons do not have the economic policies that will persaude people to vote for them. I can’t see there being much difference in the economic policies between any of the parties for the coming next parliament i.e. higher taxes and cuts. And certainly not enough of a difference to change their minds. It will all be about promises regarding competence, effiency and thrift. Most people are not economic experts. And it will come down which party they feel they can trust most.

    The fundamental problem for New Labour is that over the years the hope that ‘things can only get better now..’ has been gradually diminishing. This is borne out by their shrinking majority in parliament and their shrinking support as demonstrated in the polls.

    Particularly, since the Iraq war contrary to clear UN consent and ten of millions of protests world wide. The failure to find evidence of weapons of mass destruction. The complete failure to judge the difficulties of keeping peace and the horror of the years that followed. Since this time confidence sunk to a new level and Brown instead of lifting people’s faith in Labour has brought it down even further.

    It is important to note that for the five month period last year when Labour were polling around 26% there was no recession. There was a downturn and disconcerting signs but still no recession. Why therefore were Labour so very low in the polls at that time? Might it not have something to do with Labour’s policies and in particular the policy decision to abolish the 10p and the screeching messy U turn that followed because Brown finally saw he was in the process of driving Labour off a cliff.

    But things begun to be overshadowed by the looming recession. And Brown did manage to raise some hope and faith at their last conference saying that with his experience he would take care of things and gave people the Christmas present of a temporary VAT cut.

    But now our economy is shrinking by TWICE the rate at which the global economy is shrinking. The Bank of England has said we cannot afford anymore tax cuts to stimulate the economy. And recent news has again increased the sense that Brown’s Labour is bereft of honesty and integrity.

    Most people have lost hope in Labour as the polls demonstrate. And I see no reason to think that the Cons economic policies will be so bad that they will turn away people on mass from them. The polls clearly show that people want change and there is no reason for THAT to change.

  25. It’s interesting that recently we have a few more left or left of center (not sticking up for gordon, but hey it’s not his fault) types on the blog. I for one am all for it as humour on the BBC is sadly lacking at the moment – with the exception of HIGNFY :-)

    @Everyone who thinks that britain is in a btter position than other countries – great. Although that doesn’t actually change where we are. In this “Global” world (a misnomer if ever there was one) we seem to forget that this is not about what happens to zee germans or the french or the spanish or the japanese or the italians or the americans etc etc etc It’s what happens here. It’s what is being done now for us.

    During a time of the “boom” where finances coming into government were at a peak, GB spent and spent and spent and borrowed and borrowed an borrowed. Rather than reducing his budget deficit he increased it. Had he not (and I don’t really care if other would have done the same) then our situation or our arsenal to deal with this would be better. As the CEO of the UK that makes it his responsibility in the eyes of his shareholders. The same would be true of any other major organisation. It is irrelevant that that people believe it’s his fault or not, he just has to go…end.

    If labour had realised this several months ago, then a new leader would now be in post slamming the last CEO for getting them into this mess and they would be doing better in the polls. However as has been said, you chose someone who has politically assassinated any competition (you should have seen it coming). This is for lack of a better phrase a problem brought upon yourselves – unfortunately the rest of us have to live through this with you thanks.

  26. I just can’t see how Labour can *not* dip back down to the low 20% levels they did last summer. Perhaps there’s a risk of the Tories peaking too early.
    Still, the way things are going, there’s as much chance of Labour self-destructing if the backbenchers lose faith in the chance of a decent result in the election.

    It’s interesting that the LibDems are getting nothing from Labour’s losses, even with all the air time and media-friendliness towards Vince Cable.
    Alright, the trend seems to be a slow upward drift in support, yet the majority of their polling seems pretty much the same every time. …I suppose it’s possible for them to become the 2nd party, but there don’t seem to be any signs of it happening.

    (…I can’t believe anyone finds HIGNFY funny – where are the jokes?! It’s just bullying and ranting to me.)

  27. @PHILIP JW

    “The fundamental problem for New Labour is that over the years the hope that ‘things can only get better now..’ has been gradually diminishing. This is borne out by their shrinking majority in parliament and their shrinking support as demonstrated in the polls.”

    …and bear in mind that this majority is based on a statistically significant collapsed turnout level (i.e.: post-John Major) of about 60%-ish.
    Arguments rage on about the swing, but there’s a significant chunk of former-Tory voters, and non-voters, and there’s no reason (I can think of) to assume which way the turnout will go, and what the implications of that might be.

    Whilst confidence in Labour’s competence may be in full flight, where’s the confidence in the other parties’ competence? Where’s the confidence in George Osborne? Why isn’t Cable up there in the polls?

    Surely a fair portion of the Conservative polling is simply a “vote” against the current situation, rather than a vote for anything (I’m surely not the only one not entirely clear on what the Conservatives plan to do different from Labour).

  28. I’m not sure why people claim that Britain is “in a better position than other countries”. That certainly doesn’t seem to be the opinion of the IMF, the EU, the United Federation of Planets, or the Weymouth Allotments Society.

    Even if it was the case, it’s scant comfort to a Brit who is losing house and job to know that things are even worse in Zimbabwe.

  29. Labour have dipped below the all important 30% mark, and this close to the Euro-elections.

    Could reopen rounds of internal fighting to be leader of labour in opposition… by the way is it still the case that labour elects their cabinet in opposition? (that could be highly interesting given the level of potential labour defeat)

  30. ” Brown has knocked 2k off that car they were planning on buying….””

    You really need to do a little more research Wood, & get beyond the headlines.

    The car deal is that the Treasury puts £1k in, & the dealer puts £1k in-ie it is open to the dealer to adjust both prices & discounts to compensate.

  31. James Ludlow: “I’m not sure why people claim that Britain is “in a better position than other countries”. That certainly doesn’t seem to be the opinion of the IMF, the EU, the United Federation of Planets, or the Weymouth Allotments Society.”

    If this is true, why are both the IMF and EU showing that the UK has a relatively low rate of unemployment? Or that we’re contracting slower than our big competitors? This is the problem with those of you on the right – your narrative is fixed and doesn’t get deflected by the facts. Feel free to ignore everything said by Darling if you like, but can’t deny the facts stated everywhere else and have any credibility.

  32. I have often wondered if this recession started in america did he boom as well?

    I think we will find out the peoples verdict o june 4th if it is a meltdown for red rosed friends then i guess without getting complacent you would say gameover and keep hammering on at them as they did to the conservatives. if not then it fits with my belief that the chances are we will have 4 years more of Labour with a tiny majority.

  33. Wood-j
    ust a follow up on the car scrappage sheme-I recommend p13 of today’s Times.

    Here’s a synopsis.

    You can claim your £1000 with a SORN-ie any old wreck which has been taken off the road qualifies…oh and Ford say that since small fuel-efficient cars are already booming in sales, they want to use the scrapping scheme to sell Mondeos & Galaxys-they are adjusting their discounts accordingly.

    Still think it’s a good use of taxpayers money?

    and Chris :-

    “Eventually you will have have to start committing to some policies and this will expose what the Cons exactly are”

    Here’s one from Cheltenham it is reported-Withdrawal of Tax credits for people with incomes over £50k.

    What do you think?-sensible / not sensible?

  34. “” Brown has knocked 2k off that car they were planning on buying….””

    You really need to do a little more research Wood, & get beyond the headlines.

    The car deal is that the Treasury puts £1k in, & the dealer puts £1k in-ie it is open to the dealer to adjust both prices & discounts to compensate.”

    Doesn’t matter where the money comes from (I didn’t mean to claim it was all coming from treasury), all many people are going to see is that their car is 2000 cheaper because of gordon brown (won’t notice darling no matter what colour they dye his eyebrows), and that this will have a large effect on their feelings towards labour.

    Ian and James: I don’t think the current economic situation is black or white, we’re doing…okay. Compared to many countries our position is very good (usa, germany, france), but it could be a lot better….I wouldn’t trust the judgement of anyone who was either all doom and gloom about our situation or who said GBs put us in the best possible place to stand times like these.

    It is true (hard to deny if you stick to the facts) that the UK seems to be in one of the best positions of any of the big western economies, but I don’t personally think we should be happy about being the best of a bad bunch.

    Dean: IIRC Labour are predicted to do surprisingly well considering the polls in Europe, because they performed so badly last time round, some are thinking they can’t actually do much worse. On the other hand, it’s a good chance for the conservatives to do much better than they did last time….although they still have to seriously compete with UKIP&BNP for votes.

  35. But Wood, Labour could do much worse; and IIRC aren’t exactly the most reliable of pollsters; they got it so wrong lst time I personally believe thet are obliged to prove themselves reliable this time round; they are very low on credit to be fair.

    But it is true; Labour did do truly terrible last time; but the current rate of polling does seem to indicate that there may still be a ways to fall- on the centre-left the LibDems can offer a more attractive social-democratic voting option; and tends to be broadly pro-europe as the Labour party seems to be (by and large).

    This euro election is one I can’t yet offer any real predictions for; but this poll here does indicate a decline in Labour core vote, and previous ones for April 23rd/24th reinforce a labour-to-liberal core vote shift. Dangerous waters for Labour to assume based upion IIRC that they can’t do any worse…too many variables.

  36. Heheh, in this case IIRC=If I Recall Correctly.

    You make good points, but I still don’t think labour will get a particularly catastrophic result, the Lib Dems were already doing very well back then off the Iraq war thing, and I can’t see UKIP doing as well again this time…although mebe BNP will get a seat :/

    Guess we’ll just have to wait and see though :)

  37. @Wood – can you please correct me if I’m wrong, but the scheme for the 2k is – 2k (from whereever) for the replacement of a car that is 10 years old. The rerquirement is that they by NEW cars. I may be wrong, but if I had a car for over 10 years, then it is unlikely that I will have enough to by a new car and would instead by a second hand car that doesn’t devalue by £2k when I drive it off the forecourt. So other than helping those more well off who have a few spare cars over 10 years old, then I don’t see who this helps.

    Ian Ascott: ‘Does buying second-hand make more sense?’
    Current car: Vauxhall Astra hatchback, 1.4 LS, R-reg (1997), 81,000 miles
    Approximate part-exchange value: £150
    Approximate private sale value: £600
    Ian and his young family rely on their 12-year old Vauxhall Astra to get around, but it’s getting pretty long in the tooth and expensive to keep on the road.

    ‘I’d seriously consider scrapping it,’ Ian says. ‘Two grand towards a new car sounds great, and my old Astra is probably only worth about £500.’ He’s right – he’d be lucky to get £600 for it in a private sale.

    I’d still need to find £9,000 to change to a suitable new car

    for example: –

    Ian Ascott

    Ian’s concern was how much he’d need to spend to ‘top up’ his budget to get a new car with similar space to the Astra. ‘A regular supermini would probably be too small – certainly in terms of boot space – so I’d probably need a Astra-sized hatchback or something like a Skoda Fabia estate.’

    The Fabia estate is a good bet – it’s very economical (especially the 1.4 TDI diesel) and starts from a reasonable £11,000.

    ‘So I’d still need to find £9,000 or so to change my car,’ Ian said. ‘I know it’s a good deal, but I think I’d be more inclined to see what I could find second-hand for that sort of money.’

  38. @Ian – “If this is true, why are both the IMF and EU showing that the UK has a relatively low rate of unemployment? Or that we’re contracting slower than our big competitors? This is the problem with those of you on the right – your narrative is fixed and doesn’t get deflected by the facts. Feel free to ignore everything said by Darling if you like, but can’t deny the facts stated everywhere else and have any credibility.” – This goes back to the question of where did we start out? Were we in a better position to start with and how fast are we now moving to overtake other countries. The reality is that it doesn’t matter. For us the financial services that have propped this country for so long through a lack of regulation and needless risk taking have left our other sectors lacking. The long term reputation as a financial center has been damaged and the cost of that will have repercussions for many many years. This may have had been no different under another gov, but the fact is that it happened on Gordons watch as both PM and CotE. Add this to the resounding calls for change, the position in the polls and the higher impact local swings in labour safe seats and you have the recipie for disaster. The fact that instead of coming up with good arguments, all you can do is say “well they would have done the same” or “where are their policies” or “he’s been going out and doing” means that you have very little to offer personally and as a party.

  39. Keir –

    “It is irrelevant that that people believe it’s his fault or not, he just has to go…end.”

    Wrong – that is your opinion, and I’m baffled why Anthony hasn’t moderated such views out. There are two points to be made here. 1) Many people, rightly or wrongly, believe banks and bankers are to blame for this. 2) Democracy is never just about getting rid of someone. That’s politics in a vacuum, and is frankly rather puerile. Politics is a game of choices, where one party can only be judged against what would replace them. So yes, it does matter what the other lot might have done, or did do, or would do in the future.

    My personal view is that we are saddled with a system in which none of the major parties have the integrity or courage to face up to the big issues and tell the truth, none have any principles, and all are obsessed with media driven managerial style politics. We suffer crushingly boring politics as a result, with poll watching the only light relief.

  40. @Alec, sorry but that’s the reason you’re losing the argument – there is one when the call is for change. Even successful governments meet this requirement – Even the god like blair couldn’t fight it. The fact is the call for change doesn’t care about detail, it’s about hope. Any student of the human condition will tell you that when someone has hope/faith, then they do not as a general rule question that faith in case it’s miplaced. The same argument can be applied here with us…I will always be conservative and will always hope that my party can put forward good governments etc (I did not vote in the last 2 elections but I will this time). Likewise, you are as driven to believe in your party and the “leader” they have put forward. The difficulty for you, wood, ian, chris etc is that you are being killed by many cuts and it hurts you. Your specific response is to attack attack attack whereas other become more subdued. Either way it will make no difference when the country vote and that requirement for change sweeps you away no matter what you do.

  41. Keir, I’m inclined to agree with you broadly, most poorer people with cars that old aren’t gonna buy new, I wasn’t making any particular point about how effective or not the scheme will be for poorer families, just pointing it out as an example of something that will effect the polls for much longer than a week and take a while to build up its effect (not that it will be big enough to detect in the polls of course, but I think you get my point).

    I’m tempted to write a long winded reply to your reply to Ian, but think it’s getting more than a little off topic. Short answer: Argue less about the past and think more about the future…if Cameron would come out and commit to paying off the national debt to any extent (even just a token surplus each year would be great compared to the status quo of the last 40 years under either party) I’d be very tempted to vote for him, but at the minute I don’t see anything to suggest he’ll do more than move finances to the right a little…same end result just with cuts (to spending AND taxes, before anyone assumes I’m biased because I’m only talking about evil cons NHS cuts/brilliant cons tax cuts) along the way.

  42. “Politics is a game of choices, where one party can only be judged against what would replace them. So yes, it does matter what the other lot might have done, or did do, or would do in the future.

    My personal view is that we are saddled with a system in which none of the major parties have the integrity or courage to face up to the big issues and tell the truth, none have any principles, and all are obsessed with media driven managerial style politics. We suffer crushingly boring politics as a result, with poll watching the only light relief.”

    This.

  43. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    just to clear things up

  44. @Wood – Agree that some statement to say that Cons would tackle the problem would be a good thing. Remember 1 thing though that the first thing to do is get into office. Before you get into office then there is no point being radical as only center ground politics wins elections with enough majority to get the changes needed through.

  45. NEW POLL ALERT!

    London Evening Standard:

    “‘Tories can win London for the first time in a generation’

    David Cameron is on course to turn London blue at the next general election after a Standard poll put the Conservatives 12 points ahead of Labour.

    As a result, for the first time in a generation the Conservatives would become the largest party in London, with up to 40 of the capital’s MPs.

    Among the seats which would fall to the Tories are Brentford and Isleworth, held by health minister Ann Keen; Tooting, held by cohesion minister Sadiq Khan; Poplar and Limehouse, held by transport minister Jim Fitzpatrick, and Harrow West, held by trade minister Gareth Thomas.

    Other seats at risk include Battersea, Dagenham, Croydon Central, Ealing North, Ealing Acton and Shepherd’s Bush, Eltham, Hammersmith, Hendon and Westminster North. At least two other seats, Finchley and Golders Green and Enfield North may also fall.

  46. ‘Either way it will make no difference when the country vote and that requirement for change sweeps you away no matter what you do.’

    I’m afraid your being far to simplistic – voters will not vote for change for change sake – and there are numerous global and historic examples in our own country (92 election) that prove this. I think this arrogance from within the Con party may be their downfall – this vagueness and treating the public as simpletons will only go so far!

    If simply change is there tactic – i’m growing more and more confident by the minute.

    I do agree the Cons will certainly be a change – but I won’t go into this.

  47. Keir – “Likewise, you are as driven to believe in your party and the “leader” they have put forward”.

    Sorry guvnor, but I find your comment offensive and proof that either a) You lack a basic grasp of modern English or b) You deliberately selectively choose which bits to read

    I have made it repeatedly clear that I am not Labour and don’t like Brown. I may or may not like Cameron less – that’s a decision I still have to make. Why do you persist in this nonsense?

  48. @Chris – I think you’re making my point for me , so I don;t quite know what to say. Can you confirm that you agree that the change argument won the 92 election or at least helped it along.

  49. “@Wood – Agree that some statement to say that Cons would tackle the problem would be a good thing. Remember 1 thing though that the first thing to do is get into office. Before you get into office then there is no point being radical as only center ground politics wins elections with enough majority to get the changes needed through.”

    Yes, this is the way things are…but it’s not great, it’s why politicians bullshit and sit on the fence and the public have such a low opinion of them. Hard to see how it’s likely to change though, even if all main parties suddenly start being completely honest the dailymail continues going on about how every single MP is taking home hundreds of thousands of pounds and using it to build themselves little money thrones.

    The problem with what you’re saying with regards to this specific, is that Brown does have a reputation for prudence (much as cameron keeps shouting that he’s ruined it, it isn’t…indeed can’t, completely die). If Cameron doesn’t mention or hint at any plans to do that, the electorate (or those sections of it that pay attention) will assume he isn’t going to, as no politician in living memory has…..

    …Except Brown himself….which gives him an advantage, I agree that he should have done better, but atm his record is far less bad in that regard than anyone elses, and it’s a fairly sensible assumption to think that had the cons been in power all this time they wouldn’t have done the same…..which in the eyes of who I might vote for is a big + against him vs Cameron.

    It is a tricky one though, I’m not convinced the conservatives have any intention of actively paying down the debt, but assuming for the sake of argument they do…I agree, they shouldn’t mention it….the vote of a few people like me wouldn’t outweight the votes of people who just see it as (accurate in that scenario) evidence that the conservatives would cut public spending.

    That’s the trouble with politics, one of the reasons I’m not a current cons fan is that they’ve given no indication of being any more fiscally responsible, but at the same time I hope that if they genuinely plan to be they don’t give any indication of it :/

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