The Telegraph have published the first voting intention poll since the budget. The topline figures in the YouGov poll, with changes from their last one, are CON 45%(+4), LAB 27%(-7), LDEM 18%(+2). It was conducted between Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

Needless to say, it shows a collapse in the Labour vote with both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats benefitting, though the changes are probably slightly exaggerated since the last YouGov poll showed a rather high level of Labour support compared to other recent polls.

Two things are worth noting – first, this isn’t necessarily the result of the budget, this is also the first YouGov poll since the “smeargate” story, and some polls were already showing Labour down below thirty.

Secondly, it is possible for instant reaction polls to be too instant. Most of YouGov’s responses would have been received on Wednesday, before the print media’s pretty hostile reception today and the post-budget discussion of spending cuts. This poll may not be showing the full effect of the budget.

110 Responses to “YouGov Post Budget poll”

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  1. ow ok back to normal then with tories 18pts up BPIX were not far out then in hindsight but this is a blow for brown and darling not good news for them an election next year and a big big conservative victory

  2. In truth, the polls will fluctuate, but it’s been clear for over a year that the next government will be a conservative one.

  3. As YouGov carry out the polling for BPIX, its not surpising to see the Tories with an 18% lead in an actual YouGov poll.

    Obviously an awful poll for Labour. We are now in the final year of this government and the polls are moving away from Labour again. The writing is on the wall.

  4. GIN

    the writingis on the wall and with an average 13.9% lead over labour this month so far the tories could win the next election with a land slide and a fliping big one if the swing in marginal seats is to go by and from what some political editors are saying in safe labour seats on some internal polling labour are doing even worse but a week is a long time in politics and anything can happen but by all acounts labour are dead.

  5. Did someone say that Labour’s support was like a rollercoaster that in the end will come rushing back down to where it was 6 months ago?! :-)

    They take pictures on rollercoasters,don’t they. Its time for one of those forced grins from Brown. I’d love to have a copy ! :-)

  6. Labour simply cannot survive with the public finances in such an appalling state, and nor should they. Any management team in any compamy would be for the chopping block with a similar performance.

    The country is in a complete mess and the conservatives will be handed a truly nasty poison chalice.

    I don’t envy them one bit.

    David Cameron put things in perspective when he pointed out that Labour will borrow more over the next two years than every other previous government in the last 300 years.

    That is staggering. And the polls seem to be echoing people’s discomfort at the thought.

    The problem is Darling’s figures are fantasy land according to the IMF and every other independent economic forecaster.

    The situation is likely to be an awful lot worse.

    What is needed from a conservative perspective is a massive billboard campaign highlighting the effective bankruptcy of the nations finances and the consequences of incompetant governance.

    I think with the news staying bleak and smart use of the considerable conversative war chest of advertising funds and no gaffs by the Liberal Democrats we may see parity in the polls between the Lib Dems and Labour later on this year.

    It’s that bad for Labour.

  7. prediction based on this months polls are:

    CON 371
    LAB 212
    LD 38
    OT 29

    CON MAJ 92

    swing 8.36% from labour to conservative on current numbers which are:

    CON 42.6%
    LAB 28.7%
    LD 18.7%
    OTH 10.0%

    and also the proberbility of a land slide with thoes figures and the fact that most of the publisized internal polls show labour down more on there own turf than on conservative seats if a big majority dose come it may be very big but not as big as labours in 1997 prhaps more like 150 majority not the 178 maj labour had in 1997 i count the speaker as labour as this is the party he represents.

  8. “Any management team in any compamy would be for the chopping block with a similar performance.”

    Unless they work for er.. a major international bank….

    Good poll for Cameron, bad for Brown. I suspect Labour MP’s know the game is up. It’s one of those ultimate ironies that Labour’s demise has been nothing to do with ‘radical lefties’ and appeasing the unions, but rather an obsessive cosying up to big business and the city. Had they dusted off their principles and refused to be bullied by the money men we might have had some sensible financial regulation and avoided some of the most wasteful spending programmes (useless IT project contracts etc) and been in a better position now.

    Lesson for Cameron – constantly courting popularity at the expense of principles will end in tears.
    Not that he has any principles.

  9. The LDs are picking up some support once again when Labour’s vote slips below 30%.

  10. @Anthony – and I didn’t even have to say anything

    @Andy – I agree, the closer the 2 get to parity the better they will do. They would do well positioning themselves as the replacement for labour and let’s hope a new era of politics is upon us within the next 12 months.

    I expect the figures will still fluctuate over the coming months, but I would not like to have taken out a mortgage on the basis of my MP’s salary if I was a Labour MP – Time to change your management team or it’s the wilderness

  11. And another thing Alec, had they dusted off their “principles” they would have never been elected in the first place.

  12. @Anthony – did you mean below 30 btw

  13. @Alec – was the last comment neccessary? Did it add anything? Just checking, you ending sounded mcbrideish

  14. Anthony is a closet leftie. The Chris Newey posts that get through are staggering. But I make one post talking about about the the borrow borrow borrow, tax tax tax, spend spend spend, and into moderation it goes!

  15. I am told The Herald is carrying results of the latest YouGov poll on voting intentions in Scotland.

    Do you have any details ?

  16. I note that the HERALD are projecting a YouGov poll with a big Scot Nat lead at Holyrood.

    The end of boom and bust – just bust for Labour.

  17. @M no i think anthony maybe a liberal democrate dose not know weather he is coming r going most of the time.

    @keir- i would love to see lbour as the 3rd party in national govenment and the lib dems in 2nd conservatives in 1st this would be a return to 1850’s style politics of tory and liberal govenments being elected a good move one feels

  18. I worked out within 3 days of visiting this site for the first time that Anthony was a Libdem.

  19. Yes I agree I would like my voice to be heard but being a Tory I am blocked ( moderated)

  20. Scottish Poll details are as follows:

    Holyrood Constituency Vote
    Sample size 1020

    Party – Poll [2007]

    SNP – 37% [+4%]
    Labour – 30% [-2%]
    Tory – 15% [-2%]
    LibDem – 13% [-3%]
    Other – 5% [3%]

    Holyrood Regional Vote

    Party – Poll (Change from last poll) – [Change from 2007 election]

    SNP – 37% [+6%]
    Labour – 28% [-1%]
    Tory – 15% 1%]
    LibDem – 13% [2%]
    Other – 7% [-8%]

    Westminster voting intentions:

    SNP – 30%
    Lab – 32%
    Tory – 21%
    LibDem – 13%
    Other – 5%

    * Which ONE, if any, of the following Scottish Political leaders do you think would make the best First Minister?

    Alex Salmond – 36%
    Annabelle Goldie – 10%
    Iain Gray – 7%
    Tavish Scott – 4%
    Patrick Harvie – 1%

    * Thinking about the performance of the UK Labour Government and the Scottish SNP Government over the past year which do you think cares MOST about the needs and interests of you and your family?

    Scottish Government – 44%
    UK Government – 22%
    Neither – 26%
    Don’t know – 7%

    * It is possible that at the next British general election, neither the
    Labour or Conservative Party will win an outright majority and that other parties, including the Scottish National Party, could hold the balance of power.

    – Do you think this is…?

    A good thing for Scotland – 41%
    A bad thing for Scotland – 19%
    Makes no difference either way – 28%
    Don’t know – 13%

  21. @Alec ““Any management team in any compamy would be for the chopping block with a similar performance.”

    Unless they work for er.. a major international bank….”

    That’s not exactly true. Most banks in the US and UK who were in deep trouble lost their CEOs and chief directors.

    The only high profile one that I can think of that didn’t was Lloyds and that’s because Gordon Brown twisted their arm to take on RBS in that catastrophic merger.

    “It’s one of those ultimate ironies that Labour’s demise has been nothing to do with ‘radical lefties’ and appeasing the unions, but rather an obsessive cosying up to big business and the city.”

    Its actually got everything to do with the average household paying 10% more of their income to Labour since 1997, PLUS a mountain of debt to fund a public spending splurge the likes we have never seen.

    The fact of the matter is this – Labour is in a mess in the polls because of terrible economic management.

    All Labour governments have ended the same way. They have run out of money after spending beyond their means. And that’s not something anyone can really dispute if you pick up any history book.

    This government ran large deficits even during the boom years. That’s economic stupidity of the highest order. Now, when the accounts are really going South, the full horror of the situation will unfold on the electorate.

    Governance of UK PLC is essentially a job of economic management. Politics is the window dressing.

  22. The polls should soon see Labour reduced to their resilient core vote of 26%. Then in the course of the year I’m expecting Labour to poll 23% on several occasions and even 22% a few times. This will reflect the wavering of 3 to 4% of their core vote. But whether they actually decide not to vote Labour in the end I’m far from sure.

    It would be incredible if the Lib Dems were to poll the same percentage or more than Labour.But I think that might be too difficult to predict. Perhaps if Labour are polling regularly 23% in the run up to the election, we shall see.

  23. Marcia,

    Iain Gray in 3rd place! Behind Annabelle Goldie! THAT is the finding that will chill their blood in John Smith House and Downing Street.

    And the Scottish govt twice as popular as the UK govt. A truly stunning verdict.

    This poll will get universal coverage in Scotland because it is the first poll commissioned by a Scottish newspaper since 2007.

  24. The electoral system is so set up in Labour’s favor that they could trail the tories by 10 percent and the outcome could still be a hung parliament.

    In a hung parliament the lib dems have researched that Brown lawfully could hang on to power even if he ended up with far fewer seats than the tories as long as the tories don’t get a majority.

    Brown would hang on to power in that situation with less seats than the tories but the tories not having a majority.

    Tories last election had 196 seats. Reproportion would have given them 214 seats. Next election with 650 seats up will take 326 seats for the tories to win a majority.

    The tories support seems to be very strong in rural areas where there national percentage could be overstating the number of seats they will win.

    Still a real possibility brown could go back to Number 10 for 5 more years.

    Brown will call an election at the last possible moment without parliament dissolving.

    Look for a June 1 or June 2 2010 poll .

  25. Weighted Moving Average 43:28:18 but realistically the Budget has been a disaster for Labour (and the country) with every independent commentator being really scathing about it. The Economist also points out that Labour has become “the nasty party”. Nasty and incompetent is a pretty toxic combination, and it would be remarkable if the polls didn’t get a lot worse for Labour.

    I don’t think we can rule out the possibility of their being forced to call an election this year. Not very likely, but not impossible.

  26. @M and Neil, sorry but I’m still plumping Anthony in with the “raving loonies” – he’d have to be to run this site :-)

  27. Just wonder whether the more likely a Conservative victory is, the better the chances of the SNP doing really well in Scotland as the Party to stick up for Scotland. If that is the case then Labour will be subject to a devastating pincer attack where their base in Scotland is mauled whilst at the same time the South/Midlands and parts of the North in England turn blue. I can really see this happen.

  28. Very bad poll for Labour but not totally suprising given the totally one-sided and partisan coverage from our right-wing press. The over emphasis on the income tax band, which affects very few but certainly effects these editors is prime example of this. Yes there are very alarming figures in here, however this is under the assumption we get nothing back from the banks under government control – very unlikely.

    I’m still clinging to the hope that when the dust settles it will prove to be a brave budget from a chancellor willing to make the big decsions for the best of the economy. For all the blustering and posturing, not one alternative idea has been put forward by the Cons on this budget and they even won’t commit to overturning anything in it – Soon they will have put alternative options on the table and I think this will be there undoing.

    I am a realist though and Labour have a lot to do to save us from another Con government.

  29. @NBeal – there is no chance Labour could be forced to call an election. Labour still has a very comfortable majority and certainly wouldn’t vote no confidence in themselves – unless 30-40 Labour MP’s suddenly keel over and the Cons take their place this will never happen.

  30. ” Anthony in with the “raving loonies” – he’d have to be to run this site ”

    Keir, I don’t think anyone on this site has written anything that I agree with more!

    Some have suggested he’s a LibDem. Of course he isn’t, but the impression is that he is prepared to listen to alternative opinions, and tolerate really dumb comments from whakadoos on both sides. Naturally, the only place that many people can find to place him is in the middle.

    I find the posters most interesting who don’t give away their allegiance. They tend to stick to the facts, and examine the trends rather than pitiably shouting with their fingers in their ears.

  31. @Pete B
    Not a Labour supporter, but in the spirit of non-partisanship you should probably provide a similar list of screw-ups by previous Tory governments.

    @Chris Newey
    Again, can we keep the partisan comments off the board. Anyway, most independent commentators feel we’re going to lose money on the banks because of the scale of the bad debt. You’re right though, Labour has a lot to do if it wants to win the next election.

  32. Chris Newey,

    “For all the blustering and posturing, not one alternative idea has been put forward by the Cons on this budget and they even won’t commit to overturning anything in it”

    Cameron on Radio 4 this morning says he believes in smaller, less top down government. Sounds good enough to me. Why do they need to convey the minucia of all their policy anyway? I’m not interested in the small print.

    What most people (apart from you it seems) are scared of is Socialism! 50% tax rates, massive borrowing, devalued pound…all will sound very familiar to those at middle age or above.

    With the advent of the internet the dissemination of data can reach the masses in ways it never did in the past. When the Tories come in and have to cut back Labour wont be able to muddy the waters and claim him to be a friend of the rich and a new Thatcher.

    Labours ineptitude will be plain to all.

    Far from being the end of Capitalism I believe the next few years will finally sound the death knell for Socialism strangely enough.

  33. A lot depends on whose forecasts are right. If Darling/The Treasury’s are closer than the general consensus, then Labour will be able to claim back some high ground.

    Their best case scenario, though , won’t necessarily mean that they get any credit for it in the polls.

    I don’t believe that Labour are down in the polls “because of terrible economic management”, any more than Major’s Govt were down for that reason in 1996. It’s because of the perception that they’ve mis-managed it. Not the same thing at all.

    Cameron and co are banging on about the “over-spending”, yet there’s no evidence to suggest they would have protected this country any better. The perception however is that they would have , and that’s what informs the polls.

  34. The budget has basically blown Labour out of the water. They been very effective in presenting themselves as getting on and dealing with the economic crisis and have shown themselves to be very busy bees. They have also managed to stifle a great deal of debate about Brown’s culpability for the extent of the mess that the UK is in. However, the chickens had to come home to roost and I think there is genuine shock at the indebtedness of the UK. It’s also interesting to note that many commentators have said that the budget was one of trying to put off dealing with the real crisis whilst trying to appease old Labour with class warfare tactics like the 50% tax rate. Most now recognise that this was of little economic value.

    In terms of the polls, Labour are doomed. Voters are salivating at the prospect of giving them the kicking of all times. I would predict that at the next general election , the swing against Labour will be bigger than the one against the Tories in 1997. A foreshadowing of this may well be seen in the Euro elections and local elections in a few weeks time.

    I also think that the plotting surrounding the succession will now resurface with a vengence. It would seem obvious too that Brown will be increasingly treated with contempt by his own side. After all, there appears absolutely no chance that he could lead them to victory. He will be Labour’s John Major and will suffer the same blistering ridicule. Mr Bean indeed……

    For the Conservatives, I think the poison chalice syndrome must now be even more of an issue than actually winnning the next election. Poor old Cameron will arrive at the elephant house with a shovel and mountains of s**t to shift. Who would really want that sort of legacy?? Being in Government in the next twenty years must be the least appetising it has been since the thirties.

  35. Take a look at the previous 6 polls at the top of the page and look at the Labour share – this poll is not much different.

    Labour are between 26 and 30.

  36. @John TT – Agree with your comments – however sooner or later they will have to start to committ to some economic policies – I’m suprised they’ve been allowed to get away with their laughable ‘fixing the roof whilst the sun was shining’ approach for so long – they wasn’t saying what cuts are made or taxes be raised during this time. This hindsight approach is useless and treating the public like morons.

  37. Sorry to stray off polls, but I have to respond to all those criticising me for being partisan pro Labour. If you actually read what I said I was criticising Labour for overspending in the good years and failing to regulate the banks. So we not only failed to avoid getting into this mess but found we were £50b short as well. The fact that, unlike many here, I’m not in mad, blind love with Cameron and the Tories, doesn’t make me Labour. If Labour always runs out of money, the Tories always destroy our civic society.
    As I said in a previous post, we have a fundamentally dishonest political system, and by that I mean all the main parties, most of the press, and most of the voting public.

    Apologies Anthony, but I can’t be labelled a Brown apologist.

  38. @chris newey

    I think you’re wrong that the Tories will soon have to start to committ to some economic policies. The old adage that “oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them” has a great deal of truth. Cameron merely has to keep his nose clean at least until the election campaign starts in earnest. Until then I suspect that he will limit commitments to “easy” wins like scrapping the ID card.

    Incidentally, I think you’re being over-harsh on the “right-wing press”. Much of the coverage has focused on tax rises for the rich (a popular policy) and has played down the increase of 8p per gallon on fuel duty (an unpopular policy). Both right and left-wing papers have criticised the budget forecasts and it is hardly unreasonable to comment on the largest peacetime deficits ever.

    Even the BBC could find little good to say about the Budget. Newsnight on Wednesday evening devoted the entire programme to a scarcely-concealed sneer at the forecasts, and the likes of Paul Mason, Stephanie Flanders and Robert Peston are hardly rabid righties. So while it’s certainly true to say that the media reaction to the Budget has been poor, I don’t think the general tenor of comments has been particularly partisan.

  39. Having read the red book in detail, I think that an Autumn election becomes plausible. The “basis” of Brown’s budget (I refuse to call it Darling’s – he only read it out) has little relationship with reality. There is little, if any, chance of Brown’s figures adding up by the Autumn, and yet another public rewriting of the official prediction downwards would destroy any story Labour could tell about green shoots during an election campaign. So, despite everyone saying that Brown would cling on for the full five years, it may well be best for Labour if they cut and run before the Autumn statement.

    Also, looking the situation from a purely economic analysis, there is a potential train wreck in the months ahead. The awful figures in Brown’s budget, and his refusal to deal with them honestly put UK debt at serious risk of rating downgrade, which would materially reduce the value of UK debt. Foreigners (who Brown cannot force to buy gilts) may well go on “strike” and stop buying Brown’s gilts, which he is trying to sell in vastly increased amounts. This would leave Brown with a fatal 80 billion hole in his balance sheet.

    This hole could easily become several times bigger if foreigners take advantage of the quantitative easing facility to sell their existing holdings of gilts. We haven’t had sufficient statistics out yet to tell us whether this has started, but there are indications from some statistics that it may already be occurring.

    A bankrupt treasury would be a completely new political situation. Probably disastrous for Brown, but possibly positive if he goes xenophobic and blames “the foreigners” I don’t think this would work, but there is a xenophobic streak in most people.

    @Chris Newey

    “there is no chance Labour could be forced to call an election”

    There is every chance that Brown could be forced to call an election. The House of Commons may not have sufficient backbone to force Brown out, but an empty treasury caused by a refusal to buy the debt Brown is relying on may well be sufficient.

    Indeed, a statement from Osborne saying that an incoming Conservative might not honour Labour’s debts (echoing Labour’s statements on Tory privatisations) might be sufficient to trigger Labour bankruptcy and an immediate election. Politically this would be an unnecessary gamble, as Labour are currently looking like sick zombies, but the election date is no longer completely in Brown’s hands.

  40. @Alec – yes Alec, but you stating that Cameron has no principles had added nothing, was given no basis and personally I think is just wrong (everyone has principles). You may not agree (I don’t even ask you to) but keep it off the post.

    @Chris – What you seem to misunderstand is that if we had had a tory government, then we would not have been in this place to start with. Yes the economy would have been bad, but we would have had more in the coffers to either help individuals or to provide our own more effective fiscal stimulus without having to increase the burden of debt.

    As the tories don’t have access to the same level of detail that labour have, it would be irresponsible to state specifically where the money would be saved and generalisation must be made on the figures this government actually allow to be published.

    I would say the same for the lib dems as well.

  41. @Keir – again there has been no specific’s just the fluffy, hindsight lines cherned out from the Cons! At no time did any party say less should be spent on education, NHS and police and to now claim otherwise, without specifying where they wouldn’t have spent is treating us as idiots.

    In an election campaign they will have to come up with detail!

    However, what is clear i’m sure by all is Labour’s best bet of winning was back in Autumn 2007. In hindsight, which all Cons love, this was a wasted opportunity.

  42. Keir – I wouldn’t assume that the Tories would have been in a better position. Their track record on public finances is not good, and they never had to face such a depressed global situation. True, they would have spent less, but usually to favour tax reductions. Their reputation for fiscal rectitude in the 80s & 90s was misplaced and an example of the dishonesty I referred to. In fact the situation could have been worse with Cameron in no. 10. For examle, the rise this morning in retail sales might be evidence that the VAT cut is working, and Darling could be right that a more laissez fair attitude to this recession would make the hole in public finances deeper for longer.
    To be honest, I don’t know the answers to these questions, but I get very tired of people who insist party A or B has all the answers when plainly they don’t.

  43. @Alec very well put and agree with everything you’ve said!

  44. Chris & Kier: Will you two stop winding each other up. There’s a perfectly sensible conversation to be had about whether the Conservatives will be forced to give more concrete spending figures closer to the election and what effect it might have, but I’m sure it can be conducted without rather pointless exchanges about you both thinking the party you support would do so much better.

    You’re not going to convince each other, and this isn’t the place for political point scoring, so stop it.

  45. sorry, again!

  46. @Anthony – sorry Anthony you are out of place here. I actually stated that no party in opposition would have given the detail that chris is looking for – he should look at his own party for detail first. I also believe that rather than the freestyle rant that both Chris and his new best mate Alec have been giving I have actully been trying to discuss the notion that as New Labour are dead, the lib dems as second or even 1st party inn a few years would be a good thing. So please read the posts first before labelling me partisan in the same mold as chris.

    ps moderate away

  47. Terrible figures. Absolutely terrible.

    I cannot see any light at the end of the tunnel for Labour if this poll proves to be accurate. They will be on the receiving end of a hammering at the local elections in June and that will surely reignite the whispers about a leadership change. That, coupled with the fact that unemployment is expected to rise for at least another year and the recession expected to last into 2010 will surely signal the end for the Labour government.

  48. @Antony – you see it’s hard not to respond to such ignorance!

  49. Chris – that really isn’t helping, is it?

  50. Does anyone know if there is a table of government manefesto pledges and how many of them manage to win an election once they start to break them? Is there as ratio e.g. 0 pledges broken 75% chance of reellection; 1 pledge broken 50% etc etc.

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