ICM poll due tonight

Unless they have delayed it until after the budget, I would expect an ICM/Guardian poll to be out tonight. I may not be back from a meeting until after it appears, so feel free to discuss it in this thread.


23 Responses to “ICM poll due tonight”

  1. If it does come out tonight it’ll be an interesting poll to compare with the polls that do come out after the budget.

  2. The poll is available here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/apr/20/icm-poll-conservatives-ahead-on-economy

    There seem to be some strange results considering the other polls we have seen recently. The Conservatives are down to 40% and the gap has narrowed to 10 points.

  3. after the budget is when things will get intresting i.e if beer tax goes up by more than the 2% more than inflation per say, also vat could go up to 18% or 20% this time around, i would also not rule out a rise in corpration taxes and income tax, in all a bad mix for the govenment higher taxes a falling economy and riseing unemployment, not a good mix

  4. ICM

    40/19/30

  5. its out

    CON 40
    LAB 30
    LD 19
    OTH 11

    a ten point lead not bad but other polls out a few days ago show 17-19%

  6. this looks like a great poll or Labour. The sort of pre-budget poll that could see the lead drop into single digits post budget with a year to go for an election.

  7. It gives a Conservative majority of 2 according to the Swingometer.
    Not great for them really.

  8. Its a good poll for Labour considering the 2 weekend polls, however it’s also interesting that the Tories are now 10% ahead on the economy.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/apr/20/icm-poll-conservatives-ahead-on-economy

    A shame that ICM didn’t wait until later this week to poll as then it would had taken into account 1st reactions to the Budget and might well have seen the Tory lead reduced to single digits.

    Are there any polls due out later this week?

  9. As others have said, the base figures loook decent enough for Labour. But hardly brilliant.

    A 10 point Tory lead could be overturned if the economy shows signs of recovery.

    But that is a big ‘if’.

  10. That assumes Labour get credit for any upturn, of course.

  11. I just don’t understand this. No one I speak to has a good word for Labour and many Labour activists are saying they will never vote for the party again. So how can the vote still be higher than last summer?

    Also – if the economy does recover early next year will this favour Labour or the Tories? Again the view I hear most often is “time for a change”.

    Perplexed

  12. I think that rather than being good for Labour this is a bad poll for the Conservatives. I suppose we will never know whether this is accurate or just a rogue.

  13. can;t believe this poll is anything other than a rogue as it is one of the lowest conservative percentages for sometime – Can’t believe that suddenly in the last day or two the Conservatives have lost votes to Labour????

  14. It may be out but the Guardian gives one lot of figures, Conservative Home gives another and rnone of the ‘changes’ relate properly to last month’s ICM 18/3/09 poll

    WHAT ON EARTH IS GOING ON?

    NB the Guardian details are VERY downbeat for Labour.

  15. I would like to know where the poll from 2 days ago shown on teletext and the news with a Tory majority of 19% has gone ?

  16. Very odd top line numbers given the economic competency figures are so strongly pro Cameron. Too soon to call it a rogue, but it does go against the last 2 polls in trend.

  17. It’s not so much a rogue poll (though it could be) but there are 3 different versions around (see mine at 7:05 pm) and no explanation yet anywhere!

  18. I’m only aware of one version – CON 40%, LAB 30%, LDEM 19%. Presumably some people jumped the gun and put up rumours, or made typos which took a while to notice.

  19. Anthony Wells – NO As I said The Guardian says one thging but the figures fir changes don’t agree with what they said last time and the Conservative Home report made different but similar discrepancies. They can’t all be right!!!

    (nb just like the clock here – still on GMT)

  20. Mike Smithson has drawn the changes from the Marketing Sciences poll at the weekend, so is reporting it as CON 40%(-3), LAB 30%(+4), LDEM 19%(-2).

    The Guardian have drawn the changes from the last ICM/Guardian poll in mid-March, so is reporting it as CON 40%(-2), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 19%(-1).

    I and ConHome have drawn the changes from the last ICM poll at the end of March (in the Sunday Telegraph), so are reporting it as CON 40%(-4), LAB 30%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1).

    So everyone is reporting the same poll, they are just comparing it to different polls. Mike is doing so because he’s convinced that the Marketing Sciences poll was carried out in an identical manner to an ICM poll, and the only difference is branding. If he’s right, then that’s the right comparison. Otherwise it’s right to compare it to the last ICM poll as Tim and I have.

    Newspapers, on the other hand, have a tendency to insist on ignoring polls they didn’t commission themselves when doing comparisons.

  21. Anthony – Thank you – It’s a mess since nobody normally makes the point about what they’re comparing it to, leaving the rest of us to guess!

  22. A Budget?

    I’m on one of those. It’s really good.

    I’m confident Alistair will do a good job (at ruining us)

    *he will make sure that we only spend money we haven’t got. Send us further into recesion, and lead us to the scenario where we are begging the Zimbabwean banks to bail us out.

    It doesn’t really matter what is said. The Cameron Crew will object to whatever is said, no matter what it is. And Nick Clogged Up Cleg will say……….

    well nothing.

    The nationalist parties will continue to ask whats in it for them 5 billion pounds of englishh tax payer money, thats what.

    Ukip, won’t be involved as the budget doesnt concern europe and getting us out of it.

    And of course the Greens will demand, that half the budget is spent on trees to be located randomly, based on being pin pointed on a map, no matter what is there already. Even if the location happens to be the Middle Lane of the M25.

    The Christian Democrats will consult the bible before giving us a reply, and after hearing Camerons comments about a flood of debt, will suggest we build an arc, and allow to of every animal on,

    well Gordon and Cameron will be alright then, Im sure theres room on that boat for 2 buffoons. And Alistair Darling will be in charge of the 2 caterpillars that he has stuck to his face just above his eyes.