One thing is clear, the email scandal (I refuse to call it -gate!) has had a major affect on labour core votes, and since we fail to have a Scottish opinion poll we can’t know how the scandal has affected key lab/con margials there- I’m thinking Renfrewshire East, Dumfries & Galloway, Stirling and the Edinburgh lot.

So a picture is kind of forming, but only applicable to English marginals me thinks.

Agree on the point that if Labour can convince people that there will be reasonable growth in 2010 then they have a chance of the ‘Tory cuts’ sticking.

However, given everything that has been going on lately, if the chancellor’s forecasts are immediately shouted down by the independent forecasters, they are going to have a very difficult task of convincing people outside of the Labour hardcore (which, at 26% is about all they have at the moment) that they are right and the others are wrong.

Of course, if the independents are forecasting doom and gloom they can hardly go along with that if they want to win, although they might pick up some “well they’re being honest and I like the way they are adjusting” votes.

@ Anthony – I really am trying, I hope you see that.

@Chris –

If someone else puts something up that you think crosses the line then, if they are a new poster then politely explain this isn’t really that type of discussion. If they are a regular poster who should know better, ignore them.

Don’t (a) take the piss, (b) whine about it and definitely not (c) post a partisan argument back. The whole point of having a rule about partisan comments here isn’t because they are instrinsically bad, but because they drive out sensible conversation – and in that sense responding to them is as bad or worse as making them in the first place.

What are people’s thoughts on how it will be received both by the press and by the voters? e.g.

1) Will the press use headlines promoting the budget as AD and GB (or probably Peter Mandelson) would desire such as “Belt tightening” “Green investment” “investing for growth”
or
2) Will the press go with a predetermined agenda such as “Worse recesion since 1945″ or “£170bn – £3k for every person in the UK”

and how to you think voters will react:
1)More positive headlines – will they buy it and give GB a GB bounce? Or will they think it is more spin?

2) More negative headlines – will polls contine to show 15pt deficits and mid twenties support or again will teh voters think we have heard it all before?

One last question:

Is all of the above irrelevant as what matters is performance and if AD et al. look good on TV and get good airtime whilst George O looks weak then the lead will drop to below 10pts?

Yes, I agree,but I always thought that this-above all of “his” Budgets -would be the most drenched in party political strategy.

I’m not sure that I agree with your third para-from Labour’s point of view.
If they can convince the public that 2010 will see some return to growth, then their tried & trusted ploy of threatening with “Tory Cuts” might have some reasonance.
Their problem will be bridging the gap between Mandelsonian “look on the bright side”, and real world experience of unemployment & repossesion….but it can be done if they get a fair wind.
Of course other perceptions in the public mind could still see them turfed out.

I thought Osborne struck exactly the right note on Marr yesterday-he was very impressive-but as I say, if people want Mandelsonian “optimism” rather than Osbornian realism , he is wasting his time.

pb say that the betting markets indicate a Con majority of 62 ….spot on Anthony !

Interesting policy, borrowing your way out of debt.

With most people having to tighten their belts I’m curious to see how this budget is going to be received in the weekend polls.