Comments on: The public’s judgement on the email smears

By: Mark M

Mark M — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 11:05:43 +0000

P.S. on that point, Anthony have the cross breaks been published from either of the latest polls? If they have could you provide a link.

By: Mark M

Mark M — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 11:04:21 +0000

I think one number that will be interesting to see will be the Labour average voting intention. No doubting that there are many voters who would never vote Conservative but if a number of these are turned off from voting altogether by recent events then it will be just as bad news for Labour.

By: Dean Thomson

Dean Thomson — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 10:49:26 +0000

The last poll puts the swing from Labour to Conservative 45%, to the Liberal 17%. I find it extremely hard to believe that the working class labour core are switching credibly to Camerons Conservatives. I have a gut feeling that the first one was prob. more accurate with the voter switch.

One thing is clear, the email scandal (I refuse to call it -gate!) has had a major affect on labour core votes, and since we fail to have a Scottish opinion poll we can’t know how the scandal has affected key lab/con margials there- I’m thinking Renfrewshire East, Dumfries & Galloway, Stirling and the Edinburgh lot.

So a picture is kind of forming, but only applicable to English marginals me thinks.

By: Mark M

Mark M — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 09:49:15 +0000

@Colin

Agree on the point that if Labour can convince people that there will be reasonable growth in 2010 then they have a chance of the ‘Tory cuts’ sticking.

However, given everything that has been going on lately, if the chancellor’s forecasts are immediately shouted down by the independent forecasters, they are going to have a very difficult task of convincing people outside of the Labour hardcore (which, at 26% is about all they have at the moment) that they are right and the others are wrong.

Of course, if the independents are forecasting doom and gloom they can hardly go along with that if they want to win, although they might pick up some “well they’re being honest and I like the way they are adjusting” votes.

By: Keir (Not voting Labour)

Keir (Not voting Labour) — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 09:32:28 +0000

@Jim Jam – I agree it is all about trust and that’s where I think we will see swings in the polls as we did with the major giv. When the gov are bad they will lose votes. If the tories and libs also end up with smear though it is unlikely to lose them as many votes as much as it will cause an increase in voter appathy. I still believe that the biggest issue to face the polls this year will be turn out. As always this will play to the Tory strengths as their voters are always more willing to get out and vote (we’re all grumpy old men at heart).

@ Anthony – I really am trying, I hope you see that.

@Chris –