The public’s judgement on the email smears
I am expecting at least two new polls in the Sunday newspapers, our first chance to see how the public have reacted to the email smears and the political fuss around it over the last few days. I will update here as soon as the figures are available.
UPDATE: The Sunday Telegraph has a Marketing Sciences Ltd poll. My understanding is this is a sister company to ICM, with the poll presumably done by the sister brand because otherwise it would clash with ICM’s contractual obligations to the Guardian. The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday.
The topline figures are CON 43%, LAB 26%, LDEM 21%, putting the Conservatives 17 points ahead. With the exception of a single MORI poll in February that in hindsight screamed “rogue poll”, this is the largest Tory lead since September.
On the assumption that this poll was conducted in exactly the same way as ICM’s polls, the changes since their last poll are Conservatives down 1, Labour down 5, the Lib Dems up 3 and presumably the “others” up 3 or so. It appears from this poll at least that Labour have suffered damage from the smear emails, but that it has been to the benefit of the Lib Dems, others (and I expect, non voters) rather than the Conservatives.
I’m expecting at least one more poll tonight, so we’ll see if it confirms this pattern.
Looking at the rest of the questions in the poll 36% of respondents said they blame Gordon brown for presiding over a dirty trick culture at number 10, 50% did not.
Asked who they would most like to see replace Gordon Brown were he to resign as Labour leader, Jack Straw lead on 23%, followed by David Miliband 14%, Alan Johnson 7%, Harriet Harman on 6%, Ed Miliband on 4%, Ed Balls on 3% and James Purnell on 1%. As usual, questions like this probably say a lot more about how well known Brown’s potential successors are, rather than how popular they woulb be as PM.
UPDATE 2: There is a second poll from BPIX in the Mail on Sunday has topline figures of CON 45%, LAB 26% – Lib Dems to be confirmed. It has been 6 months since the last BPIX poll was published, so changes can’t tell us much about reaction to the email smear scandal alone (Tim Montgomerie on ConHome is comparing it to YouGov’s last poll – you shouldn’t, my understanding is they use different weighting.)
There is normally some scepticism regarding BPIX polls because their methodology isn’t open. Their polls are weighted by past vote, but to what shares we don’t know. However, in the past their figures have been broadly in line with other companies, albeit, towards the more “Tory friendly” end of the scale. This one appears roughly in line with Marketing Sciences – the Tory score isn’t too different and they too show Labour being pushed down into the mid-twenties.
UPDATE 3: You’ve probably seen it by now, but for the record that BPIX figures for the Lib Dems is 17%.
UPDATE 4: Just had confirmation that the Marketing Sciences poll was done using the same methodology as ICM, so should be directly comparable.
Filed under: Voting Intention
I am really looking forward to the polls coming out tonight. Since G20 it has been a awlful few weeks for Labour and tonight we will see what if any affect they have had on the voters!
I understand Com Res poll for IOS not out for a week
but ICM poll for S Tel should be out at c8.30pm today.
nearly there….nearly there….I almost wet my pants when I saw the blog heading. I can’t describe how gutted I was that there wasn’t actually a poll. I have to go and get a life….or should I???
Vote yes or no – then we can debate it
I was watching BBC Breakfast this morning and they quoted an e-mail they’d received that was very dismissive of the whole media approach to the e-mail smears scandal, suggesting that it was something to interest the media and not the general public. I don’t know how representative this e-mail was of messages received by BBC Breakfast but I was amazed that anyone could be so dismissive of the scandal. I’ll be really fascinated to see tonight’s poll(s) to see whether this person’s view is a reflection of the public’s view or whether my feeling that it’s a truly monumental scandal, as bad as the worst scandals in my lifetime, is a more accurate reflection. Probably the public at large feel somewhere between the two views.
@ Keir: I really like your comment. It made me laugh and I feel the same way!
Ian Martin blog on telegraph has Labour at 26! Tories on 43.
ICM Poll is
Con 43
Lab 26
Its on the Telegraph site “Politics”
two questions.
Where?
When?
labour damaged and the tories down one it looks like the party that said the least came off best in this case the lib dems and others,but the fact is the tories were only down one and this can be a given to rounding or simperly that less or more for that matter people took part in this survay
I imagine the shift from Labour to Lib Dem and ‘Others’ reflects people like Alice Mahon, who are Labour through and through but cannot support this government anymore.
If the Marketing Sciences badge is supposed to be a workaround of their contractual obligations to the Guardian, that’s either a seive-like contract, or a fairly clumsy workaround.
Will the rules of the BPC (of which ICM is a member) extend to this phantom ’sister-company’, or should we lump Marketing Sciences with Beaufort Research, BPIX, Crosby-Textor and all the other junk pollsters?
Bad news for Labour obviously. The Conservatives must be slightly disappointed not to have benefited more out of this last week of unremitting negative coverage for Labour.
The Lib Dems have not been involved in any of the stories over the last week and have benfited.
the libdems will benefit because there are a lot of people out there that are unable to vote tory. if you think about it there’ll be some serious left wing labour people that could never vote tory but could be persuaded to vote libdem in a protest.
Morus – that’s only my guess, obviously I’ve never seen ICM’s contract with the Guardian.
Newspapers with regular polling contracts though do tend to have agreements with their pollster that the company won’t do a poll for another media source a couple of days before their own one is due!
Marketing Sciences certainly isn’t a phantom company dreamt up just for this – it’s a proper established market research company owned by Creston, ICM’s parent company. My guess would be the STelegraph asked for a poll, ICM said “sorry, we’ve got the Guardian due on Tuesday and we can’t preempt that, but what about trying our sister company”.
right i’ve put the numbers in along with polls for early in the month and the projected majority is CON 66
WITH SEATS
CON 358
LAB 226
LD 36
OTH 30
Fair enough! Seems a bit of a noddy loophole though – if I had been the signatory of that contract at the Guardian, I might feel this wasn’t exactly within the scope of our agreement!
Mike Smithson reckons that they will still release cross tabs etc in line with ICM’s commitment to the BPC, so I am now dismounting from my hobby horse, and having dinner…
The 5% Labour lead over the LDs in this poll may be reflected in the result of the European election, since a quite possible result for those two parties is Labour 20%, LD 15%.
ConservativeHome is reporting the BPIX poll: C – 45%, Lab – 26%. No figure yet for LDs.
So dead cats bounce, do rotten ones? That seems to have been the effect here. Although I was expecting a bigger change we still have to take into account that the variance could still have the Tories several points higher and labour lower. Even if it’s the other way around then it still wouldn’t be all bad for tories.
Good also to see the LD’s on the way back up. Personally I see Britain closer in actual value to LD’s and Tories. Socialism as the preface to Communism has been proven not to work the world over and always leads to corruption.
@Anthony – can you publish a list of words that can be published without moderation.
OK so we have two polls both of questionable sources both not the usual pollsters.
But, as a Labour man the numbers seem clear enough! We’re dead in the water and sinking fast…..
Well although we don’t know for certain the polling techniques of the polls tonight there is a consistent movement away from what has been the average over the last few months.
I have to say I am surprised with these headline figures. I expected a change of only 2 or 3 points and that the Tories would be the ones who benefited.
I suppose the question now is whether this is a short term blip in the same way that the G20 bounce seemed to be or whether we can expect this higher lead for the foreseeable future.
One theory is that once the Labour vote goes below about 28%, the main beneficiaries are the LDs rather than the Tories.
Though I might wish otherwise, I suspect that the direct effect of the exposure of McPoison may well prove transient.
However, if it has truly damaged Brown’s dirty tricks team, then the mortal wound to Gordon may well be inflicted by one of his “own”. Revenge is said to be a dish best served cold, and there are lots of Labour ex-ministers who would take great pleasure in serving a fatal dish to Gordon.
Once labour grass roots know that they are sunk as an electoral party, there will be a movement to change the leadership if only as a damage limitation exercise. Calls to rid the party of all taint (which includes GB) will grow (I feel history is repeating) – maybe we could lend them Michael Howard
sorry I meant ellectable
the other was wishful thinking
@ Cynosarges – “Though I might wish otherwise, I suspect that the direct effect of the exposure of McPoison may well prove transient.”
Maybe, but equally it might be the final straw for a proportion of habitual Labour supporters. Alice Mahon’s resignation from the Labour Party today is interesting – she’s always been a maverick (insofar as New Labour were concerned) but, despite huge differences with Blair, she stuck with the party through thick and thin. But no more – she’s had enough. The smear incident seems to have been one thing too many, and she’s probably not alone in feeling that way.
We’ll have to wait for a few more polls to find out, I suppose.
@James – I also wonder if people are waiting to see if AD can pull something out of the bag at Budget time or maybe see what happens in june election
Weighted Moving Average is 43:29:18 so CLead 14 but this is a bit academic. Brown has lost his “right hand man” SpAd, the Sunday Times is gunning for Balls and Brown would be lost without them.
A truly awful week for Labour, that’s set to get worse.
More revelations in the Sunday Times and News Of The World later today…
It looks like they are implicating Balls, Maguire, Whelan and even Ray Collins, the General Secretary of the labour party in Smeargate.
Guido Fawkes blog is set for more revelations too.
This is turning out to be a complete and utter disaster for Labour and Gordon Brown.
This story has serious legs to it and I think we will see Labour dropping back to last years lowest polling figures in the next week or so.
The continuous calamatous headlines on the back of truley dreadful economic data could possibly see the Government itself fall over this.
I was phoned by Ipsos MORI this morning. I am not on any list so it must have been a random call. Presumably they will also be releasing a polls in the near future.
Questions on voting, NHS, savings and if I owned items off a list of media appliances – DAB radio, freeview, internet, iPod.
I did my duty and volunteered for more polls in the future!
@James Ludlow
Surely your argument about Mahon emphasises my point that if the McPoison incident has permanent effect, any coup de grace will be delivered from within Labour?
There is a famous tale about a newly elected young Tory MP, eagerly taking up a place on the benches and pointing to the benches opposite, said to Churchill, “So that’s the enemy”. Churchill supposedly replied, “No son, that’s the opposition”, and then pointed to the benches behind and said, “That is the enemy”.
Gordon’s enemies are coming out, and their knives are sharp. But they’re on the benches behind him, not the benches opposite.
@Cynosarges- So the message is for the tories to just let labour rip itself apart whilst maintaining the moral high ground.
Interesting to hear that the leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage, has said that he thinks his party might be able to beat Labour in the Euro elections. Nick Clegg said the same thing for the LDs earlier in the week. It seems unlikely that either could happen but the latest opinion polls don’t rule it out. Labour will probably poll at least 5% less in the Euro elections compared to their national opinion poll rating, maybe 10% less.
From this poll it seems, as others have pointed out, that the Liberals have benefited rather than the Tories. It has been suggested that this is because while many Labour supporters would never vote Tory, they might be persuaded to vote Liberal.
Nevertheless, this could be helpful to the Tories. Does anyone know how many Lib-Lab marginals there are? I’ve looked (not very hard) but can’t find a list.
If the Libs take a few seats from Labour it will not increase the Tories overall majority, but it will create a bigger gap between them and Labour.
A truly terrible week for Labour with things set to get even worse. Smeargate could possibly land them with even lower poll ratings then their mid-summer nadir last year. Sadly theres no by-elections to show the public’s dissatisfaction but with a backdrop marred by economic worry, shambolic public services, a government in civil war and the party falling apart at the seems the Labour Party will struggle to avoid a total meltdown in the very near future. Of course, it’s great news for a Conservative!
Whoops! I’ve just checked Liberal target seats on this very site!
There are 13 seats where a 5% swing from Labour to Libs would see the seat change hands.
Not huge numbers, but could strengthen the Libs hand in the event of a hung Parliament. Of course if the Tories get an overall majority, the more the opposition is split the better for them.
@Keir
“So the message is for the tories to just let labour rip itself apart whilst maintaining the moral high ground.”
Not exactly. The Tories and the LibDems may be cleaner than Labour, but that isn’t saying much,they’re all politicians. The Tories and LibDems may only be four feet deep in a swamp, while Labour is in eight feet of muck, but I wouldn’t say they have the “moral high group”, just are less mired. But, being eight foot deep in muck when you’re only six foot tall is likely to be fatal.
However, since Labour are eight feet deep in the swamp, the only way for any to survive is to use some dead bodies to make part of the swamp shallower, so both logic and emotion favours the assassin from within the ranks.
I’m not saying that this “should” be the Tories’ tactics, just that in my judgement, Brown won’t last till an election because the attacks from within Labour will prove fatal.
I wrote on the 15th April that if the upcoming several polls don’t reduce Labour’s average of 31% I would eat my ballot paper.
Mark M, thank you for your offer of ketchup to go with it but as these two polls demonstrate it doesn’t seem I’ll need it.
I didn’t expect to see Labour reduced to 26%, and perhaps polls from the regular pollsters might show Labour to be a few percentages higher. However, since these two polls still more bad news for Labour has come.
Mrs. Mahon resignation from the Labour party declaring she has lost faith in it will surely strike a cord with others who otherwise would be regarded as belonging to Labour core vote.
I think it is important that the price of petrol has jumped up to an average 95p a liter. I believe that petrol prices play a big part in how many people feel about the economy.
As I’ve said on a number of occasion over several months I expect Labour to be polling around 26% by the (regular) pollsters before the end of May.
The one poll I’d REALLY like to see is just how many readers like myself will desert the Telegraph this week after their scandalous attempt to smear Guido Fawkes. And who will pick up their votes? Times? NotW?
Surely NOW would be the prefect time for a Vote of Confidence in the House. And one should be called for by George Osborne who has a legitimate beef with Brown and his allies in Number 10.
Who would dare to be seen in public to be lining up to vote FOR Brown? The only way for Labour MPs to survive the next election is to now put a very great distance between themselves and Brown.
Unfortunately, the Conservative leadership don’t have the spine for it, do they?
@ cynosarge – I’m sure you’re right but I don’t think there are enough disgruntled ex-ministers to alone account for a 4 point fall in Labour’ support.
The problem for Brown is that the allegation that he knew all about – and sanctioned – the smear campaign personally is utterly believeable for anyone with any involvement in or understanding of the Labour Party. Brown’s attack dogs savaged anyone seen as a threat – Blairites when Brown was Chancellor, then anyone a threat to his ascension, then anyone – minister, past minister, whoever – who dared to question him.
Unfortunately for him the truth usually comes out in politics and in this case the truth is that he is a nasty piece of work.
However, there is still a need for policies, and that ultimately will be how the election is decided. Slease and the like provide the mood music, but people vote first and foremost for what will benefit them. As the polls have seen there are a great deal of votes flitting between parties – the Tories haven’t yet demonstrated that they will do things better. If – as Osborne now admits – the economy is showing signs of recovery then things get interesting. Do the Tories look like less of a gamble? Or does their austerity cut services platform look increasingly over the top?
The interesting thing about these polls and their trend over the last few months is that they will once again demonstrate how lacking in courage Brown has been. He flunked an election in the tail end of 2007 when he had been firmly ahead. He has done the same thing in the second half of 2008 and first month or so of 2009. The polls were only just OK for the Tories and Labour could have won an election if they’d had a good campaign. Brown did well in the immediate aftermath of the banking scandal and left the Tories looking like they had no credible alternative policies.
Now, Labour’s HQ must surely have a banner over the entrance with the words “Abandon hope all ye who enter here.”
For those of us who work in the private sector and run our own businesses, we are totally sick of the bloated bureaucracy that has been built up over the last few years. This together with the benefit-ocracy means Labour support cannnot slip much below where it is now. Whether these people actually bother to turn out at an election is another matter.
Part of me is just longing for an election so we can be rid of this agony, on the other hand the contortions and exposure of the nasty underbelly of Labour is much better than any blood sport. A fair and decent society should really put Jackie Smith out to grass but it is quite wonderful to see that self serving, vaccuous non entity getting her just desserts.
I think these polls are interesting, but I would expect a modest Labour recover once the fuss dies down. The optimistic economic mood music is more interesting. I’m wondering whether Osborne has tactically boobed again by openly talking about tax cuts when it seems we might have turned the corner. I’m not saying I support this line, but one thing Brown loves is to paint the Tories as public spending slashers.
In terms of which party is more sleazy – Labour have got their deserved come uppance, but lets not forget that the Tories got hold of the emails somehow, probably illegally, and that Coulson lost his Fleet Street job as the man behind the illegal bugging of royals phone conversations. If anyone really wants to tell me that Cameron has surrounded himself with honest, ethical, virginally clean men and women, then please take a running jump. He couldn’t even persuade his front bench to ditch their lucrative second (and third, fourth and fifth jobs) in order to concentrate on the task in hand. I see no prospect that politics would be cleaner and better after a possible Cameron win. We’ll be left with the same old career politicians who are so removed from real people I’m surprised they even bother to talk to us.
@Ian Bailey
“Or does their austerity cut services platform look increasingly over the top?”
Hardly likely – they are banding around the figure that we will need to borrow 150 Billion this year and next. That’s something like 12% of GDP.
Utterly bonkers… deep into IMF territory.
Imagine the cuts required to balance the books!
We’d be looking at around 25% cut in spending minimum.
@ Alec – “Labour have got their deserved come uppance, but lets not forget that the Tories got hold of the emails somehow”
No, they didn’t. It was the “anti-politics” blogger Guido Fawkes who got hold the emails and broke the story, nothing to do with the Tories.
@ Alex – bang on mate. Tories have tried to portray themselves as whiter than white in this with regards to smear tactics? Really?
Coulson as media director who ordered his hacks to bug the royal family. Cameron who smeared Fox in the leadership campaign (according to Fox). Osborne who smeared Brown suggesting he had Aspergers. Dorres who smeared the Doctor at the Abortion select committee hearings for presenting evidence she didn’t like. And its not exactly new is it – remember Alan Clark being “economical with the actualite” when the Cabinet were happy to let smears against Matrix Churchill send their directors to jail? then smears from the Cabinet against Nicholas Scott?
Smear is endemic in politics unfortunately. Brown’s team are in the spotlight and rightly so. But its not like they are the only ones at it. But thats OK – the truth always outs. Blair portrayed Labour as whiter than white vs Tory slease then set about raking in cash for policies from Ecclestone. Now its the Tories pretending to be clean vs Brown and McBride. In a decade it’ll be Labour again pretending to be clear vs Tory smears. And should we be surprised? Politicians are professional liars – why should anything they say be a shock?
These polls are great entertainment. Added to which we have Guido but….
These pollsters are second-string organisations (and I mean that not to be derogatory, just a reflection that one – MSL – is a unit of ICM’s parent group and the other – BPIX – interprets data collected by YouGov). When they have a track record we can judge….
So when are the big-boys to publish? ComRes next weekend (but they have had an erratic performance in the last couple of years)? YouGov after the budget (as prior polls will make little sense) next week? Mike’s fav’ ICM, when…?
And what about IPSOS/Unite…?
Thinking about this more perhaps the most interesting poll will be the Ipsos Mori one which should be coming out soon.
Since Mori completely exclude people who are anything other than 10/10 to vote it may show up the support which has switched from Labour to Lib Dem as ’soft’ support. In other words it may be the case that the left-of-centre electorate have been turned off Labour but are actually more likely to abstain than vote Lib Dem. Just a thought.
If the Lib Dem vote is solid then it’s a danger to both Labour and Conservative because there are just as many Lib/Con marginals in the South as there are Lib/Lab marginals in the north.
Is it just me, or is it really bizarre to have the BPIX Lib Dem vote as ‘to be confirmed’?
Either you have a coherent set of figures – or you don’t. How can there be any change in whatever result the BPIX poll shows for the Lib Dems without changes to the Tory and Labour votes?
Anthony
Do you include BPIX Polls in your calculations particularly when they do not adhere to the polling council’s rules about being open about the methodology they use so we can’t be sure if their figures are representative even though they may have been in the past?
As I suspected Labour are now struggling to keep to the 28 per cent that a few thought was their bottom line
John,
While a shift from Lab to LD should in theory assist LD in the Con/LD marginals (mainly in the South), the reality is that in most of these seats the Lab vote has already been squeezed almost to extinction. In any case, Con/LD margins are always difficult to predict because they often depend on purely local organisational / individual factors.
What is far more likely to have notcieable impact is that the Lab-LD shift in Lab/Con marginals will deliver a disproportionate number of seats to Con than UNS would justify. Put another way, this may well also tie in with teh unwinding of Anti-Tory Tactical voting clearly evisdent in 1997 and 2001, but less so in 2005, to deliver an electoral landscape that appears less tilted to Labour.
Little suprised how much the polls has been affected by ’smeargate’, saying that the unrelenting obsession by the right-wing dominated media and also Cons crocodile tears over this it could have been worse – interesting to see if this a blip or this trend continues.
I still believe the more promising news regarding the economy which will be impossible to burry, even by the said right-wing rags, and despite some polls to the contary the Labour party will get the benefits – cutching at straws I suppose, but have some credit in electorate that they will start to question what exactly the Cons would do – media gimmicky headlines will only go far and substance will be needed – this will be their downfall!
@James – to say the Cons had no imvolvment in the Con funded Guido Fawlkes breaking of the story is incredibly naive.
@Alec – good point and I believe in everything you say esp on the issue of Con shadow cabinet refusing to give up their 2nd, 3rd and forth jobs- this didn’t receive the coverage it deserved and if it had been Labour they would been absolutely slaughtered by the press.
@ Chris – do you have any actual evidence of that? Or is it just a “feeling”?
This is tipping into partisanship again. I’m sorry these poll results are obviously depressing for you, Chris, but if you want to spin them your way then LabourList looks like a good bet for you.
26%, Liberals on 21%. From those figures alone Labour ought to be concerned, after all following 1983 the Alliance almost pipped labour into third place (in % share of vote terms), so its not unaimaginable that a self mutilating new labour party might fall behind the Liberals this time round. The Liberal core vote seems stronger and % higher than in the aftermath of 1983, so I’d expect to see the Liberals put up a real challenge for second place in % share of the vote in the coming months; if; Labour struggle in maintain 27/8%.
However as a Tory, the 43% can be read effectively as no change, and thats further demonstration of the potential threat posed by Liberals; as not 20 years ago enough voters would have switched directly to Tories in such an event as these, but today in many regions of the UK the Liberals are now being seen as a credible alternative. That worries me as a Tory, as they can win in our heartlands just as much as in labour ones too.
Lastly, I think that a small labour recovery to 27-29% ought to be expected, if the Darling budget is actually written by him (if its another Brown budget then thats the final nail in New Labours ready-fit coffin!). The next polls coming will be interesting reading; will they reflect this polls findings? I’d suspect not, surely Labour can’t have melted down this badly already (and for a second time!)?
@ Chris Newey
“to say the Cons had no imvolvment in the Con funded Guido Fawlkes breaking of the story is incredibly naive.”
Order-Order is not like LabourList, that is controlled by the Labour party. Guido gives our boys just as bad burning as he gives corrupt new labour.
Can someone please moderate Chris pathetic bias-political rants please? I thought this was about discussing polls and predictions in a grown-up atmosphere.
lib dems on 17% in BPIX poll as reported by conservative home
putting all the new numbers in gives us a majority of 100 for the conservatives with very little diffrance between all election predicting softwere election calculus is stating a majority of 98 the same is ture with the figures for this month with this site and only slight verying with UK ELECT at 104 maj so overall a 100 majority is predicted.
@ James Ludlow
I never said that it was purely ex-ministers causing the 4 point drop, but I believe that without further assistance, the drop may well prove transient.
However, Field, Byers, Milburn, Mahon have all decided to give Brown additional servings of cold revenge, and I expect further servings from other Labourites who felt Brown’s ire. It’s their actions which are likely to make the effects permanent.
@ Staurt Gregory
A majority of 98, can I ask if you rant through the regional variables in that? As the Scottish dimention, if not considered, can nock off a couple from the Tory majority.
Obviously an awful couple of polls for Labour. Makes you wonder how much worse it will get after whats set to be a grim budget and bad GDP-unemployment figures are released in the next week.
@ Chris Newey
Could you explain which bit of your daitribe below is not partisan and adds to he debate on this polling website?
“Saying that the unrelenting obsession by the right-wing dominated media and also Cons crocodile tears over this it could have been worse – interesting to see if this a blip or this trend continues.
I still believe the more promising news regarding the economy which will be impossible to burry, even by the said right-wing rags, and despite some polls to the contary the Labour party will get the benefits – cutching at straws I suppose, but have some credit in electorate that they will start to question what exactly the Cons would do – media gimmicky headlines will only go far and substance will be needed – this will be their downfall!”
Gin you’ve hit the nail right on the head.
Can New Labour really recover to 27% in the coming month given the ‘austerity’ budget (if its Darlings) or the fiscal & irresponsible (if its another Brown job)? Where is the room to re-envigorate the core voters?
For example, I was out canvasing in Stirling, and the ‘new build’ housing estates (McGuires majority really) and the biggest winner was the voters switching from Labour to ‘W’ – wont vote. Labour from my recient door nocking experience seems to be dying in ts heartlands. I fail to see much that could stmulate a recovery at all. The only hope is twofold so far as I can see:
1. the bad polling leads to a ‘rally round the flag’ attitude. However given whats-her-names resignation of membership as a Labour member (former MP) this seems unlikely
2. Darling delivers a statesman-like Gladstonian budget of reduced public expenditure a fresh ‘responsible and sensible’ budget.
However its all extremely open to question and conjecture.
Chris Newey,
You’re not to be the only one being partisan today.
Imagine how bad the feelings of anger and despair get when ‘your’ party are no longer in power!
All those evil “right wing rags” pumping out, for years, unsubstantiated nonsense about just how bad a mess the previous (Labour) government left us in.
Tories wall to wall on TV spinning how they’re ‘changing things’ for the best when in fact you know they’re just dismantling your precious ’state’ bit by bit.
Blairs/Browns names being dragged through the mud, all the things you belive in being irrevocably altered for the worse…
Horrible isn’t it? Uncomfortable feeling?
I’ve lived it for 12 years mate. Your turn soon
@AndyG
“The Conservatives must be slightly disappointed not to have benefited more out of this last week of unremitting negative coverage for Labour.”
Realistically I don’t think the Tories can hope to get much higher than the mid 40s. What will decide their majority now is how low Labour’s support drops. And as bad as the last week has been, the effects of a hammering at the Euro elections (June) and the publications of MPs’ detailed expenses could be a lot worse.
I think Paul(Brownoutin2010)’s brief comment is important.
Over the past couple of years we have had polls somewhat yo-yoing between the levels that we have had, for example, for the last couple of months and one’s with Labour on around 28%. My guess is that this variation has been largely due to the effect of recent events at the times polls were taken shifting a layer of floating voters whilst underlying core votes have not changed much for several years. However, as Paul says, the polls today suggest that Labour is going below its 28% base, i.e. that they are losing core vote, although as 26% is within 3% of 28% we must acknowledge that the difference might just be due to sampling error.
We don’t know without further investigation, but my guess is that it is not Labour’s e-mail smears scandal that has done the damage. Outside the minority of us who chatter about political matters, I am afraid such bad behaviour is, sadly, seen as par for the course.
I suspect that the big new hit on Labour support, on top of the economic crisis, is the policing of the G20 summit. They are unlucky that the 20th anniversary of Hillsborough coincided with publicity about the police’s “kettling” tactics to detain demonstrators en masse, which appears to create voluntarily, on the part of the police, the sort of dangerous overcrowding that happened in Sheffield. And the public will not tolerate a second killing of a manifestly innocent person for no other reason than he was unwittingly on the edge of a major police operation, particlularly if there is then an initial attempt at cover-up. These concerns relate to specific events, but I suspect (again, one lacks data as yet) that they have been “the straw that broke the camel’s back” of popular acquiesence in New Labour’s disregard of basic and traditional English freedoms. As is shown by the editorial stance of the “Daily Mail”, which is clearly the swing national paper at present in opinion-formation and which is hardly the first one would have in past days expected to campaign for libertarianism.
In relation to this point, the decision that there is insufficient evidence to prosecute Damian Green has major implications for the future of UK political processes, if not on public opinion.
It is too late now, in terms of political support, for Labour to do anything about its failures in relation to human freedoms and to policing policy.
All the above is as I see it, not necessarily as I want it.
We have been waiting for polls, but clearly voting intentions may be changed by the budget and then the Euroelections. If Labour came fourth in the European elections, that really would be terminal for them: even third would damage them more than similar voting which has already happened on local election nights.
Dean Thomson, your report of your canvassing experience is intersting and valuable, However, people in English equivalents of the Raploch stopped voting ages ago. In Southern England, the vote that won New Labour three General Elections was largely middle class, and that is vanishing too.
“In Southern England, the vote that won New Labour three General Elections was largely middle class, and that is vanishing too.”
And if Darling opts for higher taxes rather than (even) lower spending, it is likely that they will be the targets.
Having already defected from Labour in droves AD may wave them a fond farewell as he tries to shore up core left support with a “soak the better off” budget.
It will be fascinating to see how much of this Budget is about the nation’s finances, and how much is about trumping the Tories…..AD or GB ?
dean thomason- no UNS as normal the minimum for the tories was 98 maj and the max 104 so there is manover room a bit anyway, but also taking into acount that in england what we must understand is that the english are more likely to vote for camoron than scots or welsh would so any scotland or wales effects could be cancelled out by england
@Dean and your comment on corrupt new Labour is the height of impartiality? Jese
@Chris – and there you have it. Make you a deal, stop posting and I’ll stop commenting on what you say
Can anyone remeber how Thatcher was regarded during Westland which was only 15 months before a big poll victory.
Trusted less than Brown is now and an effective Kinnock could have seen her off.
Of course big (turned out irresponsible – John Biffen’s opinion) Tax cutting bribes are not possible for the Government.
Sleazegate etc may make a slight difference but it is the Economy that will determine the next election result.
The level of ignorance about the economy is shocking. Well perhaps it isn’t as it’s partly the reason this country is in the mess we are in.
When you hear reports of ‘green shoots’ and ‘past the worst’ it doesn’t mean that the economy is growing again (let alone returning to the easy borrowing and rising house prices of pre 2007) it means that the economy is continuing to worsen but at a slower rate.
The only things people have to look forward to economically are rising unemployment and debts and falling living standards and house prices.
@Jim Jam – Margret Thatcher was disliked by some, hated by others. However she had the respect of people who knew that no matter what they thought of her policies, she had the drive and mental capacity to see them through. I was this steel that saw her through. By comparrison GB is a pale imitation, blustering and ignorant.
So no I do not think Labour will see their way back, the bookies don’t see labour on the way back. To understand this you have to look at what labour really stood for before new labour took over. Remember they were “of the people for the people”. This is not what labour are now, they have moved away from their core and now have little to no substance to keep them going. In essence they are a husk of career politicians and power hungry sycophants (GB destroyed all the other tallent on his way to the premiership)
Paddy Ashdown said it quite nicely in an interview (from which I’m paraphrasing) – that the UK has been waiting for some time for the representation of the left- center left of politics to be represented by liberal veiws rather than the outdated principles no longer adhered to by labour. In terms of the narative of our times, it’s more yin yang with Lib vs Tory than the current format.
sorry I wasn’t actually her steel
– should have said “It was her steel” 
Keir – you are right about the respect Thatcher got from even her opponents who recognised she stood up for her interest group. My point is rather narrower concerning trust as during the Westland affair polls showed a large majority of people thought she had lied etc.
Believing the PM is conniving distrustful and the rest does not stop them being re-elected.
GB will lose the next Election (the issue is how well will the Tories do) but not because of sleazegate.If he was felt to be doing a good job by enough people the distasteful stuff would be overlooked like it was with Thatcher.
The Budget strategy is emerging in the Press:-
a)No cuts in Public Spending programmes.
b)Efficiency Savings over n years in the future.
c)Further Stimulus expenditure.
d)GDP growth for 2010 of 1% or so.
a)=Battle line with Tories over “Public Services”
b)=jam tomorrow-sort out the real problem after they win the GE
c)=Brownian policy-keep chucking money at it.
d)=Everyone else will say this is nonsense-but Treasury forecasts are always wrong -& the public don’t care.
Antony – are you going to do something with Keir’s partisan and extremly ill informed comments?
I’m resisting the opportunity to tear this delusioned view apart, this isn’t the place for it – so I’ll truest you to be consistent and remove this ignorance from the board.
Anthony
I trust you will treat Chris Newey identically to Keir. For Newey to accuse others of being partisan and ill-informed is surely the epitome of hypocrisy.
Chris – I have learned to rise above the partisan stuff as it does not change any minds. If anything it helps as it informs what attacks will coming and enables a rebuttle line to be worked out.
Plus a modest bit of partian banter further down the thread keeps things going whilst we wait for the next poll.
I think Keir normally stays within acceptable boundaries even if the below is on the edge but it is only an opinion after all and it is a rather well constructed sentence.
‘In essence they are a husk of career politicians and power hungry sycophants (GB destroyed all the other tallent on his way to the premiership’
He has not called Labour voters mad or, as one fellow leftie did, call Daily Mail reader morons.
This kind of petty insult is what we should avoid.
@Colin
Sounds like it’s going to be a ‘Brown budget’, rather than a ‘Darling budget’ from those points. The feeling I get from reading around is that a Brown budget is more likely to harm Labour than a Darling one.
I’m glad we got some polls before the budget so that we can judge how it will be viewed.
Personally, I don’t see any electoral benefit in going for a wildly optimistic ‘treasury’ forecast. The public is extremely sceptical of the government at the moment, so why give them yet another reason to be?
Still, at least Labour have got George ‘Soundbite’ Osborne keeping them in with even a faint possibility. It’d be a bit dull and predictable if the Tories had anyone good as shadow chancellor.
Borrowing now being forecast at 170 billion for the budget.
Interesting policy, borrowing your way out of debt.
With most people having to tighten their belts I’m curious to see how this budget is going to be received in the weekend polls.
@MARK M
Yes, I agree,but I always thought that this-above all of “his” Budgets -would be the most drenched in party political strategy.
I’m not sure that I agree with your third para-from Labour’s point of view.
If they can convince the public that 2010 will see some return to growth, then their tried & trusted ploy of threatening with “Tory Cuts” might have some reasonance.
Their problem will be bridging the gap between Mandelsonian “look on the bright side”, and real world experience of unemployment & repossesion….but it can be done if they get a fair wind.
Of course other perceptions in the public mind could still see them turfed out.
I thought Osborne struck exactly the right note on Marr yesterday-he was very impressive-but as I say, if people want Mandelsonian “optimism” rather than Osbornian realism , he is wasting his time.
pb say that the betting markets indicate a Con majority of 62 ….spot on Anthony !
On the budget (moving on from the tit for tat of your more partisan than I am):
What are people’s thoughts on how it will be received both by the press and by the voters? e.g.
1) Will the press use headlines promoting the budget as AD and GB (or probably Peter Mandelson) would desire such as “Belt tightening” “Green investment” “investing for growth”
or
2) Will the press go with a predetermined agenda such as “Worse recesion since 1945″ or “£170bn – £3k for every person in the UK”
and how to you think voters will react:
1)More positive headlines – will they buy it and give GB a GB bounce? Or will they think it is more spin?
2) More negative headlines – will polls contine to show 15pt deficits and mid twenties support or again will teh voters think we have heard it all before?
One last question:
Is all of the above irrelevant as what matters is performance and if AD et al. look good on TV and get good airtime whilst George O looks weak then the lead will drop to below 10pts?
Thank you Jim Jam & Charlie. Arguing about how partisan other people are is as bad as being partisan in the first place.
If someone else puts something up that you think crosses the line then, if they are a new poster then politely explain this isn’t really that type of discussion. If they are a regular poster who should know better, ignore them.
Don’t (a) take the piss, (b) whine about it and definitely not (c) post a partisan argument back. The whole point of having a rule about partisan comments here isn’t because they are instrinsically bad, but because they drive out sensible conversation – and in that sense responding to them is as bad or worse as making them in the first place.
I got it right i said 17 points what do i win!!!
@Jim Jam – I agree it is all about trust and that’s where I think we will see swings in the polls as we did with the major giv. When the gov are bad they will lose votes. If the tories and libs also end up with smear though it is unlikely to lose them as many votes as much as it will cause an increase in voter appathy. I still believe that the biggest issue to face the polls this year will be turn out. As always this will play to the Tory strengths as their voters are always more willing to get out and vote (we’re all grumpy old men at heart).
@ Anthony – I really am trying, I hope you see that.
@Chris –
@Colin
Agree on the point that if Labour can convince people that there will be reasonable growth in 2010 then they have a chance of the ‘Tory cuts’ sticking.
However, given everything that has been going on lately, if the chancellor’s forecasts are immediately shouted down by the independent forecasters, they are going to have a very difficult task of convincing people outside of the Labour hardcore (which, at 26% is about all they have at the moment) that they are right and the others are wrong.
Of course, if the independents are forecasting doom and gloom they can hardly go along with that if they want to win, although they might pick up some “well they’re being honest and I like the way they are adjusting” votes.
The last poll puts the swing from Labour to Conservative 45%, to the Liberal 17%. I find it extremely hard to believe that the working class labour core are switching credibly to Camerons Conservatives. I have a gut feeling that the first one was prob. more accurate with the voter switch.
One thing is clear, the email scandal (I refuse to call it -gate!) has had a major affect on labour core votes, and since we fail to have a Scottish opinion poll we can’t know how the scandal has affected key lab/con margials there- I’m thinking Renfrewshire East, Dumfries & Galloway, Stirling and the Edinburgh lot.
So a picture is kind of forming, but only applicable to English marginals me thinks.
I think one number that will be interesting to see will be the Labour average voting intention. No doubting that there are many voters who would never vote Conservative but if a number of these are turned off from voting altogether by recent events then it will be just as bad news for Labour.
P.S. on that point, Anthony have the cross breaks been published from either of the latest polls? If they have could you provide a link.