Waiting for the verdict
The “email smear” story is all over the media for a fifth day. What we don’t yet know is how the public will react. We might normally expect an ICM poll around now, but pollsters do not normally conduct polls over the Easter bank holiday weekend in case it skews their sample. YouGov’s poll for the Sunday Times would also normally be mid-month, but it was done early in April. The next scheduled poll we can expect is ComRes in the Independent on Sunday, which I would expect to see this coming Sunday, though if we are lucky a newspaper will have taken the opportunity to commission an ad hoc survey to find how the public have reacted to the scandal.
What should we expect? Well, given the level of media coverage it’s reasonable to expect that this will have a large effect, but it is not a certainty. Damian Green’s arrest, for example, was given huge media play for a few days, before the polls received it had no effect whatsover – it was a Westminister village story people didn’t care about. Similarly the Jacqui Smith expenses row didn’t seem to have much effect, perhaps because it was cancelled out by a successful G20 summit, or perhaps because the public assumed that politicians from all parties were on the take.
That may be the vital factor in how the public respond to the story – will it be seen as the Labour party making up lies to smear their opponents, or will it be seen as politicians in general making up lies to smear their opponents. If the former, then one would expect it to damage Labour, if the latter and people think all the other parties are probably just as bad, then perhaps not.
Even if people aren’t unduly worried by the story itself, it may have a wider affect upon the party standings anyway, since it will build into the image of a dying government, interested only in arguing with itself and smearing opponents. Currently Labour’s defecit in the poll is around 10 to 13 points, compared to 20+ points last Summer. Despite (or perhaps because of) the economic crisis Labour are doing better than they were a year ago – apart from the economy the difference is that back then Labour were horribly divided, fighting one another over the leadership. If this story moves public perceptions of the Labour government back towards seeing them as divided and incompetent then we’ll see their figures drop. We’ll know by Sunday (and hopefully before!)
polls…. must.. have… polls..
I’d be surprised if the next lot of polls show much deviation from the current UKPR average. Some polls specifically for the Euro election would be welcome.
i’d put my money on a poll coming out tonight or on saturday night and not before or inbetween
For all yearning for a poll – there is a YouGov poll for Compass on Taxes published yesterday. No voting intention questions, but some interesting questions on tax policy.
Unsurprisingly, lots of people seem to think it would be a good idea to raise taxes on other people. Funny how the questions are never couched in ways which give the impression that the respondee might have to pay more.
On Andy’s point about Euro Election polls, it would also be helpful to have some historic poll data from 2004 (say Jan – July) showing where the polls stood in the run-up, the actual result, and what happened to the polls after the result. I suspect, but cannot prove, that these would show that the 16% recorded by UKIP was a flash in the pan, neither picked up beforehand, nor reflected after the event.
Data from 1999 would also be interesting to support (or disprove) my theory that in both 1999 and 2004 Tories “won” the euro-elections while being well behind Labour in the polls. If so, then the omens for Labour this year cannot be good.
fully agree with dean thmson.
the current prediction as highlighted by my-self in an earlier post point to a total 3.3-3.5 million out of work by the middle to end of this year and a slowing and eventual peak of 3.8-4 million out of work not to say the 1 million or so on inverlidity benifits of which half should be in work anyway.
I see Brown apologised. Good for him, to be fair he has both apologised and sacked the chap who did it which is the right thing.
It’s very politically inept though as the apology has just whacked the story back to the front pages and top stories.
I would have done it either at the time (prefereable) or not at all.
“polls…. must.. have… polls..”
i can post my percentages from canvassing returns if you like!
ONTHEJOB- its a bit dry for polling at this point
so do you want analyse them then wet the appetite a little bit
ONTHE JOB- to little data about no chance untill the weekend
There’s a poll! There’s a poll! A yougov poll! ITV reports on Telextext today but I can’t find it on yougove’s site. But it exists!
fair still by my figures it had me way ahead of labour where is this you gov poll?
Still can’t find it. The salient points in the Telextext report are:
“A third of Britons do not trust any of the countries politicians [...] Of the remaining two-thirds, more said they trusted Tory leader David Cameron to keep his word (21%) than Prime Minister Gordon Brown (12%). The Queen was voted the most trusted person in the public eye [...]“
country’s not countries
I need more coffee!
James – countries’ would have been ok (there are more than one), and I’d have excused a missing apostrophe anyway.
@ John – in this context “the country’s politicians” = Britain’s politicians so not more than one country.
But thank you for being forgiving of missing apostrophes.
@James – Sorry I’m going to agree with John TT – It doesn’t happen that often – The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland(commonly known as the United Kingdom, the UK, or less accurately Britain) is a constitutional monarchy located off the northwestern coast of continental Europe. It is an island country, spanning an archipelago including Great Britain, the northeastern part of Ireland, and many small islands. Northern Ireland is the only part of the UK with a land border, sharing it with the Republic of Ireland. Apart from this land border, the UK is surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean, the North Sea, the English Channel and the Irish Sea. The largest island, Great Britain, is linked to France by the Channel Tunnel.
The United Kingdom is a unitary state consisting of four countries: England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
But guys guys – I mis-transcribed the Teletext and the Teletext original words were “the country’s ….”
And now I’m off to my first ever Pedants Anonymous meeting. Anyone care to join me? There will be apostrophes in abundance, as well as biscuits.
I’m right behind you James, heading for the custard cream’s.
Presumably the fieldwork for the expected Comres poll in the IOS this Sunday will be too early to pick up the impact if any of the decision to drop charges against Damian Green and the subsequent pressure on Jaquie Smith reflected in many of the papers today.
A shame because by the time a new poll emerges, any such impact will have been lost in the post-budget haze. I’d like to think that the electorate have an opinion on the shambles revealed by this episode but I doubt we’ll ever find out what it is.
I agree. The next memorable polls will show the reactions to the budget.
Personally, I think such events as budgets, and policy announcement events like autumn conferences, lead to polls which are more indicative of voting intention than polls that take place after the release of a new morsel of scandal.
People have never trusted politicians – my elderly grandmother never believed a word of what she was told during the war, so the more things change, the more they stay the same. Whiter than white? Fat chance!
If they’ hav’e b’iscuits I’l'l c’ome t’oo, but’ ‘I’m ‘only drinkin’g ‘green tea’ at’ th’e momen’t so’ ‘I’ hop’e ‘they can ac’comodate ”””’
John TT – well, custard creams certainly aren’t whiter than white – more yellower than yellow. (But a good chance of fat !)
As to accuracy of polls taken immediately after “events” – whether they be scheduled major announcements or scandals – the main interest is to see how the event in question has been perceived. A budget bounce may be no more likely to be sustained than a scandal slip. The real question is whether they provide the turning point for the trend line, and that never really becomes apparent until several months later.
While we afficionados feed on polls, we must never forget that the only ones which can truly be said to reflect voting intention – as opposed to voting propensity – are those conducted during an election campaign. Moreover – don’t expect any national polls taken in May to give anything more than a broadbrush indication of the likely outcome on 4 June – unless they specifically ask whether, and, if so, how, people intend to vote in the European Elections.
If memory serves me well, Labour were far ahead in the national polls in both 1999 and 2004, yet lost by a wide margin to Cons in both elections.
Correction – that should be “voting inclination” rather than “voting propensity”.
Though perhaps in some places “propensity” may be more applicable – especially those where postal ballots enable certain individuals to “vote early, vote often”.
The rumour mill is saying that a certain J—— S—- will be forced from office over the weekend re: the Damian Green business. If that turns out to be true, there’ll be a veritable chaos of cats loose among the pigeons. We’ll need even more polls …
I don’t think JS will be sacked by Brown. He will defend her in the teeth of all criticism.-he has to at this late stage in the Parliament.
Falconer was on R4 this morning saying that the CPS ruling on what sort of leaked material actually constitutes grounds for prosecution was “new law”….ie JS was operating to existing understanding of the law…that is her defence.
RE the Budget, I just wonder if GB/AD will want-or even need-to put all the bad news ( ie forward projections for Borrowing , Tax & Spend ) in the spotlight now.
They could delay the worst bits till the November PBR.
I read a quotation from a “Treasury source” in the Times the other day to the effect that they are considering which of the two presentations should contain what material.
“a new morsel of scandal.”
I have no idea whether the next poll will reflect the latest mishaps for this administration-but I do think that to characterise these events as a new morsel of scandal is to misunderstand their context , and therefore their potential for permanent loss of electoral support.
The “morsels” of scandal which afflicted Major’s last administration were many & various-Sexual misconduct ( Mellor, Yeo-Major himself) ; Cash for Questions ( various) ; Perjury ( Aitken)
But it was the cumulative effect of Tory behaviour in stark contrast to Tory “Back to Basics” policy ( or at least what people perceived to be the intent of that theme) which destroyed Major’s credibility .
By the same token , the central tenets of Brown’s leadership :-
“I am a conviction politician. Call it “the driving power of social conscience”, call it “the better angels of our nature”, call it “our moral sense”, call it a belief in “civic duty”………..Moral Compass “,
which are increasingly being seen as incompatible with the way he actually conducts his politics.
How important this disparity is to people, remains to be seen-but it finished Major.
I don’t know how far this is relevant to the current exchanges but I did hear that AD was NOT planning to publish any forecast for the PBR as it would reveal too much, i.e. how bad things are going to be. The counter argument is obviously that it would effectively allow the Tories to avoid publishing their future plans in any detail.
I’d be more than surprised if JS loses her job this weekend. She has a major day in the Commons on Monday and it will be how she performs there against Rottweiler Grayling that will determine her fate. If negative that can surely be lost in the Budget publicity!
I think the budget this year may be a little different. People are expecting a bad one and will blame the gov if it is. however if it’s anything else then a collective “phew” will happen … and not a lot else. I cannot see even a strong well put together budget having much of an impact on the UK voters anymore. As many people have pointed out, the polls indicate that the greater unwashed believe that DC will be the better PM after the crisis and now even during the crisi he is the most trusted.
Personally I think we should let the queen take back all power (allow charles to abdicate so as not to upset the applecart when it’s his turn and then have the country run by William – he’s such a nice boy and he can fly a helicopter – bet GB can’t)
Colin – a bit off-topic, but Jonathan Aitken’s perjury is interesting case of misremembering, people always seem to associate it with the sleaze stories at the end of Major’s government, and assume it happened at the same time, but the libel trial was actually after the Conservatives had left office and Aitken had lost his seat.
@David D
By PBR are you referring to the deficit (the old PSBR now renamed PSNCR)? If so, I find it hard to believe that AD can make a budget speech without mentioning or publishing a deficit forecast. Surely that will just prompt worst-case speculation? And in any event it’s the basis for the revenue-raising measures.
Apologies if I’ve misunderstood what you were saying.
Leslie,
Thanks and I may have got my terminology wrong but I see that this evening in a piece on Osborne on the BBC website the following appears
“Mr Darling is likely to unveil some limited spending cuts in the Budget but plans for a full scale comprehensive spending review are thought to have been shelved. ”
I didn’t see this until after posting my earlier comment but may be this is what I had heard earlier in the week.
I’d move Jacqui Smith to Agriculture, and put Tessa Jowell in the Home Office.
@Joe James B – Your idea doesn’t go quite far enough, I’d move GB out of Number 10 and put DC in
Anthony-thank you for the correction.
I think I conflated his resignation & the revelations in the Press ( pre 97 GE I think) with his trial & conviction, which were, as you say after Major had lost.
In mitigation I think Aitken stands in the public mind along with Hamilton & Mellor as one of the triumvirate who epitomised “Tory Sleaze” at that time.
Antony – Hope your going to do something over Keir’s unrelated and partisan comment.
@ Chris Newey
Before you accuse others about “unrelated partisan comments”, perhaps you should remove your own partisan delusions about “the recent promisimg news on the economy”
Pot, Kettle.
However, I do admit it is amusing to see a New Labour sycophant attempting McPoison’s smear tactics In a thread discussing McPoison’s effect on the polls.
Chris Newey
Once again I detect to your contributions a clear case of hypocrisy….for as long as you continue to describe people who disagree with you as cretins and idiots and make the kind of inexplicable comments to which CynoSarges refers then you have no right to make any demands that Anthony censor others.
Let him who is without sin cast the first stone….
Very interesting chart in Michael Crick’s BBC blog the other day regarding the growing number of “other than Tory/Labour” MPs in parliament since 1959 and the growing likelihood therefore of a hung parliament.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/michaelcrick/2009/04/why_a_hung_parliament_is_a_goo.html#commentsanchor
Do you agree with hi speculation that the electorate swing towards the winnign party at the last minute in order to ensure an overall majoriy? It’s hard to see a mechanism for that to happen.
The BBC is leading their news with ‘a double blow for Labour’. Those radio comments are devastating for Premier Brown.
When people look back at how Labour lost power I suspect the phrase ‘death by a thousand cuts’ will be often used.
@Anthony – Please feel free to remove my note it was meant as an extension of humour posted by Joe James B in which he suggests the home secretary should move from her job to a place where shovelling manure is more in line with the role and not just an action within the current culture of Gov.
@Chris – you may wish to comment
@Anthony – again happy for you to remove this post as well
Leslie
Thank you for the link. I hednt seen that analysis before. I personall thought we would get a hung parliament in 1992. I have not put any money on the next one but would like to know the odds Vs a C majority.
c
@CharlieJ – Check out http://www.Sportingbet.com and look on the left hand side under politics.
Leslie – PBR = Pre Budget Review – which is normally held in November and at which Public spending plans are announced. It is therefore not surprising that any decision on major spending cuts should be deferred to the pBR – the only question is how far the Budget forecasts indicate the extent to which cuts will be needed.
Colin – Aitken – whom my wife knows personally – is an interesting case. He is now actively engaged in IDS’ Civil-Justice organisation which looks at the situation of the most disadvantaged in society – and which led to Cameron’s “Broken Britain” campaign last year.
One major difference between the “sleaze” of teh Major period and today is that then, in all cases the “sleaze” was personal and di not relate to misuse of office. The scandals which have rocked this government, especially the Home Office, on a regyular basis have been issues of ministerial / policy competence.