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	<title>Comments on: European election predictions</title>
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	<description>Opinion polling and political analysis</description>
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		<title>By: Barney</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2081/comment-page-3#comment-578127</link>
		<dc:creator>Barney</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 May 2009 10:16:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2081#comment-578127</guid>
		<description>This may be a silly question: has there been any opinion poll that has asked about (British) voting intentions in the European election since the &lt;a href=&quot;http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1790&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;January YouGov one&lt;/a&gt;? Has any organisation announce an intention to do one before the actual election? With polls being done on silly subjects like &quot;would you vote for Sir Alan Sugar?&quot;, it doesn&#039;t seem all that unreasonable for at least one more to be done on the next election we have.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This may be a silly question: has there been any opinion poll that has asked about (British) voting intentions in the European election since the <a href="http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1790" rel="nofollow">January YouGov one</a>? Has any organisation announce an intention to do one before the actual election? With polls being done on silly subjects like &#8220;would you vote for Sir Alan Sugar?&#8221;, it doesn&#8217;t seem all that unreasonable for at least one more to be done on the next election we have.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Foley</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2081/comment-page-3#comment-577542</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Foley</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2009 00:11:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2081#comment-577542</guid>
		<description>I am not a statistician but have been involved in politics for the last 40 years. Speaking to people, reading the &quot;runes&quot; etc I feel that this prediction is as flawed as the one from the same source in 2004.

My own guess? ( won&#039;t call it a prediction) is as follows, (adjusted for the reduction of 6 seats)

Cons     27       no net change
Lab        14       net loss 5
Lib          10       net loss 2
UKIP        8        net loss 4
SNP         3        net gain 1
PC            1        no change
Green       3       net gain 1
BNP          3       net gain 3

I would love to see the Greens totally eliminated in the UK but am realistic enough to realise that with all the publicity they are receiving they are likely to hold what they have and gain one more seat. UKIP will not be clobbered as much as some feel ( or even hope) but will lose 4 seats, the SNP will gain a seat from Labour and the BNP will gain from both Labour and the Tories. PC will maintain its seat in Wales. The Conservatives  will lose 1 seat to the BNP but gain 3 from UKIP, but will &quot;lose&quot; 2 from the reduction of seats so nil net change for them. Labour will lose 2 seats to BNP, 1 to the SNP  and &quot;lose&quot; a further 2 from the reduction. The Libs will lose 1 seat to the Greens and 2 from the reduction.

It will be interesting to see who is more accurate in the event.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am not a statistician but have been involved in politics for the last 40 years. Speaking to people, reading the &#8220;runes&#8221; etc I feel that this prediction is as flawed as the one from the same source in 2004.</p>
<p>My own guess? ( won&#8217;t call it a prediction) is as follows, (adjusted for the reduction of 6 seats)</p>
<p>Cons     27       no net change<br />
Lab        14       net loss 5<br />
Lib          10       net loss 2<br />
UKIP        8        net loss 4<br />
SNP         3        net gain 1<br />
PC            1        no change<br />
Green       3       net gain 1<br />
BNP          3       net gain 3</p>
<p>I would love to see the Greens totally eliminated in the UK but am realistic enough to realise that with all the publicity they are receiving they are likely to hold what they have and gain one more seat. UKIP will not be clobbered as much as some feel ( or even hope) but will lose 4 seats, the SNP will gain a seat from Labour and the BNP will gain from both Labour and the Tories. PC will maintain its seat in Wales. The Conservatives  will lose 1 seat to the BNP but gain 3 from UKIP, but will &#8220;lose&#8221; 2 from the reduction of seats so nil net change for them. Labour will lose 2 seats to BNP, 1 to the SNP  and &#8220;lose&#8221; a further 2 from the reduction. The Libs will lose 1 seat to the Greens and 2 from the reduction.</p>
<p>It will be interesting to see who is more accurate in the event.</p>
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		<title>By: promsan</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2081/comment-page-3#comment-577441</link>
		<dc:creator>promsan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 03 May 2009 13:11:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2081#comment-577441</guid>
		<description>@Paul H-J

I wouldn&#039;t be at all surprised to see the BNP get 3 euro seats... West Midlands, North West, and Yorkshire in order of likelihood.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Paul H-J</p>
<p>I wouldn&#8217;t be at all surprised to see the BNP get 3 euro seats&#8230; West Midlands, North West, and Yorkshire in order of likelihood.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul H-J</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2081/comment-page-2#comment-577211</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul H-J</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 02 May 2009 21:52:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2081#comment-577211</guid>
		<description>Jim Page,

Can&#039;t recall what their original predictions were, but the new ones are plain daft. 

Bad enough that they think thge SNP will win 4.6%, but Plaid Cymru on 4.5% !!! If they got that many votes they would have taken all four seats in Wales.

Next I suppose they will be predicting Mebyon Kernow taking a seat or two in the SW region.

Sorry, these predictions lack any credibility.  

Anthony, while you have put up excellent pages for each of the individual regions, can we have a page where we can bring the totals togetehr ?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jim Page,</p>
<p>Can&#8217;t recall what their original predictions were, but the new ones are plain daft. </p>
<p>Bad enough that they think thge SNP will win 4.6%, but Plaid Cymru on 4.5% !!! If they got that many votes they would have taken all four seats in Wales.</p>
<p>Next I suppose they will be predicting Mebyon Kernow taking a seat or two in the SW region.</p>
<p>Sorry, these predictions lack any credibility.  </p>
<p>Anthony, while you have put up excellent pages for each of the individual regions, can we have a page where we can bring the totals togetehr ?</p>
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		<title>By: Anthony Wells</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2081/comment-page-2#comment-577164</link>
		<dc:creator>Anthony Wells</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 02 May 2009 16:10:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=2081#comment-577164</guid>
		<description>The number of MEPs the UK returns is reduced by 6 at this election. Libertas are projected to get no seats at all.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The number of MEPs the UK returns is reduced by 6 at this election. Libertas are projected to get no seats at all.</p>
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