European election predictions
Burson-Marsteller have again commissioned Simon Hix and Michael Marsh (this time joined by Nick Vivyan) to carry out a prediction of the European Parliament election results. The whole prediction has a rather fancy website here.
Hix and Marsh produced a similar prediction for the 2004 elections, which predicted that the EPP-ED would manager 285 seats, the PES 217 seats and the ELDR 73 seats. UEN 28, Greens 40 and the then EDD would be eliminated. In the UK they predicted that the 2004 result would be CON 32, LAB 27, LD 12, SNP 2 and PC 2, with the Greens and UKIP loosing all their seats. Of course, that didn’t happen. In fact UKIP didn’t lose all their seats, they tripled them to 12 seats.
This time round they have a rather fancier model, which takes into account the latest opinion polls, the last national election, who is in government, how close the last national election was to the last european election. They also factor in whether the party is an “anti-European” party, who apparently tend to do better in EU elections and which they presumably hope will deal with the “UKIP effect”.
For the over predictions and the prediction in each of the other member states visit the website here. For the UK, Hix, Marsh and Vivyan predict that the number of seats for each party will be CON 27(nc), LAB 22(+3), LDEM 13(+1), UKIP 4(-8), SNP 2(nc), PC 1(nc), GRN 0(-2).
(UPDATE: There were problems moving the server over, so there may still be outages over the next few days until it’s finally all sorted out)
(UPDATE2: Another server change, this time to a new provider, so comments from the last day have sadly vanished. Fingers crossed this should be the last switch, so you can now leave comments without worrying they might vanish!)
Comments seem to have disappeared since last night
Pete – see the update at the bottom of the post! This is now on a second new server. Hopefully changes are now over!
I think the likelihood is both the Greens and BNP will win at least one seat each, so their prediction is probably going to be wrong again. Also Labour will struggle to win 3 extra seats I think.
labour may gain one seat somewhere but in most areas the conservatives will gain a seat or two and the lib dems will lose seats, in terms of the other election taking place in the countys labour could get wiped out in some areas and lose at least 5 to 10 seats on other councils
The Lib Dems in Cornwall will suffer to be honest, if the general mood is anything to go by.
matt hurst-
the lib dem will lose most of their vote to the consrvatives, any mmbers labour has in the south west will vanish
If the predictions are anywhere near correct, it looks very much as if UKIP are a home for disaffected Conservatives and the BNP is a home for disaffected Labour voters.
So when the Conservatives are ‘up’, UKIP are ‘down’.
When Labour are ‘down’, the BNP are ‘up’.
Not very cheery news for either party in that respect.
By ‘either party’ do you mean Lab and Con or UKIP and BNP?
It will be interesting to see if or how Sleazegate affects the polls.
I’d imagine 6 weeks out its too early to have any big effect on the polls. It would be interesting to work out how close a mid sized scandle like this has to be to have a bog effect.
Id imagine:
Size of scandle x Proximity of scandle is pretty obvious but the big question is frequency of scandle.
I’m sure there comes a tipping point like in 97 where the number of scandles building up just means that people stop listening to what a party says.
Unless their model is advanced enough to take account of postal voting fraud, I fail to see how it can predict a net gain of three for Labour.
To those into politics, Slezegate is huge. To ordinary folk it’s not nearly as galling as the expenses revelations. “They’re stealing our money” counts more than “they’re slandering other politicians”. The biggest effect Sleazegate will have is on Labour morale. Keep an eye on the expenses thing, which is likely to get much worse – if one story will ensure a Labour wipeout, it’s that.
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Bad news for UKIP! But where are the BNP likely to figure in all this?
I thought there was a small chance Labour may humiliatingly poll less than 20% in the Euro-elections although until the last few days I thought it was unlikely, but there are so many bits of negative news coming out of the woodwork for Labour and Brown that it’s becoming more likely that they really will dip below 20%.
There is an argument that that kind of result would actually be good for Labour in terms of the general election, because the more natural Labour supporters vent their anger with the party in the Euro-elections the less chance there is that they will do so in the general election.
Or their supporters may feel that the chances of winning at the general election, after a thrashing at the Euros, are so small that they don’t bother to turn out at all resulting in an even bigger defeat!
There are two major effects of Sleazegate. One is that a lot of Labour Party members are furious and sickened by it – for them, it’s a final betrayal and confirmation that the Brown government is ethically bankrupt. Most of them will probably hold their noses and vote Labour anyway but I wonder how many of these rank-and-file activists are now willing to activiely campaign for Labour? Fewer than there were last week, that’s for sure.
The other effect is that for “ordinary folk” this whole shameful episode deepens the narrative about the Brown govt being rife with corruption, sleaze and self-interest.
One thing’s for sure – anyway you look at it, it’s certainly not good for Labour.
I think if recent polls are to be believed the Tories will win the European Elections. However I am unsure to what extent that will be and wether Conservative support will be consistent across the UK.
The major casualty of the election will probably be UKIP which will be squeezed by other euro-sceptic parties like the Tories and the BNP.
As for the British Left Labour may lose votes and some seats to the Liberal Democrats.
What ever the outcome the European Elections it will surely set the stage for the next General Election!
@James – I’m affraid the mountain out of a molehill ‘sleazegate’ you refer to will be left to Mail reading cretins to be shocked and appalled at – funny they like to pick and choose when free speech can be applied – remember these weren’t about to be published. I don’t think there will be any dramatic changes to the polls and if anything they will eventually rightly improve for Labour when the good news in the economy which the right-wing press are doing there up most to bin (again funny the negative economy news gets front page) will be impossible to ignore.
When it comes to voting the public will look at the leadership Brown has given and the comparison of Emu Cameron and the Cons will be staggering! However, not necessary in this election!!
Chris,
I’d hardly call Brown’s actions anything other than dithering – once again slow to react to very damaging headlines! i once was a reluctant Labour voter! Your final sentence highlights the classic sticking head into sand mentality! Unfortunately the only result this story will have on the general public is that Labour is desperate to win! at any cost?? I just cannot believe the average person in southern Britain who did trust Blair would even contemplate voting for Brown!
When are the next polls due?
Timings will be messed up because of Easter.
Normally we could expect ICM’s Guardian poll in the next few days, but I expect it won’t be for a week because they wouldn’t have wanted to do the fieldwork over Easter.
@Chris Newey
“if anything they will eventually rightly improve for Labour when the good news in the economy…..will be impossible to ignore”
Would this be the good news about higher taxes in the budget, or the good news about massive redundancies at Barclays and Land Rover, or the good news about the £ tanking against the $ and Euro?
@ Chris – I was hoping you’d comment on this. Thanks for providing an early morning laugh.
Chris,
Should not refer to mail readers as cretins.
A bad as some of the Tory posters remarks that regularly appear on here.
I would be dubious about “Eurosceptic” parties squeezing UKIPs vote. UKIPs selling point isn’t Euroscepticism, it is withdrawal. Entirely different things. The likelihood is that the BNP will take rafts of disillusioned Labour supporters and Libertas, if they stand, will take some of the Conservative “Eurosceptic” vote. I think UKIPs position is now recognised as different from the Tory strand and is recognised as a specific policy position.
” mountain out of a molehill ’sleazegate’ ”
Says it all.
@Chris – Are you in the running for McBride’s or Draper’s jobs?
In terms of Leadership, Brown has once again proven that he is psycologically incapable of saying sorry. Rather than doing the right thing, he has allowed the story to continue proving his ineptitude at managing the media.
and I think that although the expense issue is big, it does touch on all parties so will have less of an impact on labour than this story. This is about a labour SPAD being paid out of our tax money flaunting the already strict code under which the opperate. If Brown was unaware of this it’s bad, if he did know then it’s worse.
‘Sleazegate’ is not a mountain out of a molehill. That’s probably what Nixonians thought when Watergate broke (‘oh why are they investigating a break in so much?’).
This is what happens when Brown can’t get us talking about the economy. Remember last year and the 20+ pt Tory leads. We weren’t talking about the economy much then either.
@James – I kept it simple for that reason
@Keir – I really don’t see what Brown should say sorry for? Do you expect him to vet and approve every e-mail that leaves Downing Street?
A chief exec wouldn’t appologise for every inappropiate e-mail that goes round an offiice!
Sorry but I’d rather a PM carry on and running the country rather than managing the media as you put it – you can tell your a Con with comments like that!
@Pete B – I’m afraid it’s this focusing on the negatives that you have just demonstrated that has massively contributed to the mess the economy is in today? Any promising good news is quickly burried, ignored or debunked!
ps – has the budget been announced yet? Again beliveing everything that’s published in right-wing press as gospel! Remember the Cons are proposing to do nothing in this budget and beyond!
@Chris – at your right wing press putting negative economy news on the front page rather than the good stuff. Here are 2 possible reasons (others feel free to add more as you like): –
1, the “right wing press” are lazy and put on there the things that are easier to find
2, the “right wing press” are realists unlike yourself who upon a sinking titanic ignores the lack of lifeboats and is thankfull that you will have a chance to practice your swimming (why are those cretins screeming, can’t they see the opportunity – oh how great is our captain! glug, how glug great our glug builder! glug, ooops glug glug glug ……..)
Can we leave the bitching to Dolly and those who feel they have an issue with him?
@Chris – I am a conservative voter who abstained from voting in the last 2 GE’s. I will be voting this time
If you have any understanding of how an organisations culture is derived, then you would understand that noone expects Gordon to Vet emails, they expect him to Vet people.
These SPAD’s have a code that they have to abide by (it’s strict enough as it is without more tinkering)
Gordon Brown has been negligent in allowing people like McBride to have any political office. Worse is to allow a man like McBride to be a special advisor. Do you really think that McBride was preaching one thing to Draper and another to Brown??? Really??
If Brown is a strong leader then he has created this culture or at best as a weak leader allowed it to fester.
Please give me another choice.
Interesting to read new report saying people are more fearful and less trusting than they used to be. Should be good news for right wing parties.
Good to see the do nothing line coming out again. Since we’ve had a break from PMQs I’ve missed it being rolled out every week. You’d think the Tories had been in power since 1997 the amount Labour supporters blame them.
Give it a few more posts and we will hear about how this is all the fault of Mrs Thatcher. Perhaps I will term this Mark’s Law, as an adaption of Godwin’s Law – “As a UKPR comments section grows longer, the probability of someone blaming Mrs Thatcher for today’s problems, whatever they are, approaches 1.”
Can I draw people’s attention to the comments policy – this is not a venue for political argument. Stop it or I’ll moderate them.
Hmm, perhaps I need another law.
“As the length of time since the last poll increases, the probability of a partisan argument occuring approaches 1″
Mark M
Or how about:
As the length of a thread increases the relevance of the comments to the original poll report diminishes.
@Mark M – Or how about – as the length of the thread increases the more the need for a new poll increases
I like it. Rings somewhat of ‘Yes, Minister’ and the law of inverse relevance “The less you intend to do about something, the more you have to keep talking about it”.
It’s still classic television.
Well, Burson-Marsteller seem determined to build a track record in predicting UK Euro-Election results.
Having got it badly wrong in 2004, their prediction for 2009 looks likely to be even further out.
Anthony has quoted their prediction for seats, but they include spuriously accurate percentage of vote. If we look at the predictions for vote share it soon becomes clear that they appear to be as out of touch as the EU paraphernalia.
For some reason they have Lab at just below their current polling average, and the LDs at well above that level, while Cons are shown at about 80% of their current polling figures. They then compound their error by showing Cons with no additional MPs, yet Lab at +3 on a smaller increase in share of the vote.
For the smaller parties, while I agree that UKIP will lose seats, I do not think they will fall below 6-7. They may be right about Greens falling to zero, but given that 1 of their seats is in SE region I suspect that that seat will be retained. While they acknowledge that BNP may gain a seat, they have not indicated what the BNP share of the vote might be. However, since the total of shares listed is 97.3%, that only leaves 2.7% for all others (incl. BNP) – which is fanciful to say the least given how many parties will be on the ballot paper and that BNP achieved just under 5% in 2004.
Although they have provided some outline methodology on the site, it seems that they have not actually analysed the likely outcome by region to achieve their prediction.
The only parts of their prediction with which I concur are in seats for N.I. and SNP/PC. But, even here, I am not sure about the percentage figures.
I reckon that the single Euro-Election poll we had back in January will prove to be a more reliable indicator of the outcome in June than this scholarly treatise.
Chris Newey, if the PR chief of a private company was caught plotting to smear the directors of a rival firm in a company email, of course the CEO would have to apologise. In fact the company would more than likely end up being sued. And this email didn’t “go round the office”, it was sent to an outside party,
@Chris,
That was a gross generalization to make, saying all Mail readers are cretins. Remember there are three types of Mail readers:
1. People who read it for the Racing pages
2. People who genuinely believe in the rubbish is spouts.
3. People who read it for a really good laugh
The trouble with predicting European Election seats is that the smaller parties in particular had candidates elected last time only just over quota. So support percentages cannot easily be used to predict seats gained. The Greens in particular can be wiped out by losing a few thousand votes in London and the South East.
A further issue is that minor parties with current MEPs, e.g. UKIP and the Greens, stand to pick up support during the campaign because of Eurpean funding for campaigns.
However, the predictions indicated here have an uncomfortable feeling of being likely. The beyond-the-Tories-right may lose out by splitting support between UKIP and BNP (no comment), whilst less emphasis on environmental issues due to the recession (alarming given the seriousness of climate changes which threaten the very existence of humankind) may wipe out the Greens. I would not be surprised if this results in more Labour (and LibDem) MEPs elected on a smaller percentage of the vote. Who says PR is always fairer than first past the post, even though I am on balance in favour of PR?
My feeling is uncomfortable because I think that the sort of result I have suggested in the last paragraph will even further disillusion electors, in a situation where democratic involvement is already at a dangerously low level.
David Boycott is right to raise the issue of potential electoral fraud: in very big consituencies it is difficult to get the feel that comething has gone wrong that is possible even in Westminster sized constituencies. One reason is the lack of a large number of seats in which to compare swings.
I strongly doubt that UKIP will get any less than 10 MEPs. After all they are highly active online, and have a high profile leader in Farage.
Besides, as has been pointed out before, the recient opinion poll is merely based on older results, failing to do any canvasing on their own. Now it may perhaps indicate a current trend direction, but once campaigning starts, and UKIP will inevitably get coverage, these trend indications will be made redundant. Thus it is no indicator whatsoever about what the May result may be.
Chris
Why do your contributions on this thread leave me with the feeling that the only thing you regret about those dreadful e mails is that a member of your party was caught sending them. I remember a time when the Tory Party was regarded as the nasty party but oh boy that label has sure been passed on.
Fortunately there are other members of the Labour party like Tam Dayell who realise that something is rotten in Downing Street and realise that the culture needs changing. As Tam said can you imagine Jim Callaghan employing someone like Mc Bride?
British politics has sunk to a new low.
I really don’t have much idea how these Euros will go.
I guess the Tories will replicate their 44 of last year in the locals, hopefully extend it to 45 or so,
so I would guess they could be down to about 35 in the Euros.
Perhaps Labour will edge up to 24 or 25 compared to 2004 because the UKIP vote will be lower.
LDs probably back a bit to 13 or 14pc,
and the BNP pretty close behind.
Greens on 6 or 7pc.
Frankly, this glossy java Eurovision website seems like nothing more than scientological wishful thinking.
…wishful thinking appears to have begotten wishful thinking on this thread. I think stricter moderation would be healthy.
As for these elections, there’s many a slip ‘twix cup and lip …and I suspect the 6 weeks are going to be full of ‘em.
My mantra, as ever, remains that there is growing political entropy… Eurolections are a good opportunity for a spasm.
@Nick – No I think these e-mails were very inappropiate and was definitely a resigning matter from an aide that should know better – I don’t see however this can be layed on the door at Brown – despite all the digging and re-raking up this story from the right-wing press and the Cons no conection has been found to Brown – which boy I bet they’ve looked for it.
Personally, it’s the Cons that are looking the desperate ones now – they realise the economy is showing promising signs and this is the last thing they would want! Keeping this story on the agenda, with help from their right-wing foreign backed media friends is there aim – because they have nothing to offer but hindsight predictions on the economy.
Brown shouldn’t apologise and should continue running the country, because Cameron clearly isn’t suitable. I’d actually lose respect in Brown if he did!