There is an ICM poll in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph. The topline figures, with changes from ICM’s most recent poll, are CON 44%(+2), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 18%(-2). The poll was conducted between the 25th and 26th March.

It’s a very slight increase in the Conservative lead, but none of the changes are really significant. Realistically speaking, this is just another poll showing a pretty stable position. For the record though, since ICM tend to give the Conservatives some of their lower scores this actually equals their third highest rating from the company.

Still, for those getting rather bored with the voting intention figures, we can look ahead to several potentially significant events – many commentators have suggested Gordon Brown is putting great weight in the G20 summit this week to give his premiership a boost, beyond that is the budget, which could work either way, and past that we have the local and european elections, which often lead to realignments in the national opinion polls.

ICM also asked about inheritance tax, revealing an even split amongst the public. 48% agreed that increasing the inheritance tax allowance should be a priority for the next government, 48% disagreed. Amongst Conservative voters 59% said it should be a priority.


55 Responses to “ICM show 13 point Conservative lead”

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  1. On the whole , I believe a high turnout does benefit Labour but there have been exceptions to this. The high turnout in 1992 ,I am convinced, helped the Tories – probably as a result of the Sheffield rally spurring many disillusioned voters to close their eyes and put Major back in!

  2. I’d be very careful before I argued with Professor David Denver of Lancaster University, one of the country’s leading academic election experts for over three decades, who has all the statistical analysis at his professional fingertips!

  3. It seems to me that in 1997 Labour didn’t *win* the election; the Tories lost it:
    http://www.psr.keele.ac.uk/area/uk/turnout.htm
    http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm
    The result being a government only elected by about a quarter of the population.

    You only have to take a cursory glance at the turnout to see that the months of sleaze resulted in a significant chunk of the electorate being utterly turned off all the political parties on offer.

    The observable inability of the opposition parties to make major inroads into such a floundering government is surely testament, not to the resilience of the party, but rather to the continuing decay in turnout?

    The LDP seem to me to be doing a sterling job of being a fluffier version of Labour; yet they’ve been stagnant for years.
    They seem to have a little bulge in support every ten years… ’63, ’73, ’83, ’93, ’03, so now they’re in their regular gentle trough perhaps? Far from where the dizzy heights they reached with Kennedy (Lookout 2013!).

    Whatever the percentages are, I can’t see turnout poking it’s head above 60% next time unless there’s something to positively vote for. Perhaps 55% is not only a plausible figure, but an optimistic one as well?

    Some have made (perhaps tenuous) parallels between Major and Brown; and Callaghan and Brown, except there are no charismatic figures waiting in the wings this time.

    Surely the more likely scenario is that voter turnout decays even more (another 5% perhaps), and the major effect of that is to take a slice off Labour more than give an extra portion to the Tories?
    The other factor of course, is the demographic… your older voter is arguably more likely to vote Tory or UKIP; your younger one LibDem, Green, or not at all!

    I reckon the phrase “Browned Off” is going to have new resonance for a whole generation of mainstream working voters, who now have had their expectations progressively raised ever since “Things Can Only Get Better”; and now dashed at the summit of an unprecedented P2E ratio mountain.
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8080.html
    (Check out that HBOS spectacular divergent phugoid being chased by a Japanese bear!)

    From my own encounters, I would bet that it’ll be the infamous WWC who stay away more than any other category; perhaps feeling more than a little taken for granted in those “Labour Strongholds”.

    As for election timings; I can imagine Brown being constantly henpecked to go early; but my sense is that he would rather hang on to the bitter end; enjoy that PM jet-setting; the limo; the perquisites and luxury: even as a lame duck. Perhaps he is already subconsciously beaten… and he will no doubt tell us all about it for the following 5 years after in a big fat book deal.

  4. Well I wouldn’t dare do it! ;)

  5. “The other factor of course, is the demographic… your older voter is arguably more likely to vote Tory or UKIP; your younger one LibDem, Green, or not at all!”

    …meaning that they die off! Or if pensioners… have a lot to be grumpy about!

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