Comments on: Do governments always recover?

By: Lukw

Lukw — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 11:53:12 +0000

I’m not sure if the Liberals currently poll more middle class support than they did even before the Alliance, when their support was (by estimates) composed of a high majority of middle class people. The expansion in Liberal support in recent times has clearly come amongst certain sectors- students, ehtnic minorities, people in Northern Cities where they now run councils- that are very seldom middle class.

By: Dean Thomson

Dean Thomson — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 14:27:01 +0000

But Lukw, this time the Tories middle class support has the problem of a now well established Liberal Democrat competition, the Libs will reduce the con. comback signifcantly than they would have done in the days of the less organised or well established Alliance.

By: Lukw

Lukw — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 12:56:47 +0000

This is an excellent point. I always thought this- there has beennoi government recovery in the polls since 1997 in the runup to an election- the model only works in either of two scenarios-

1. Polling 1992 and earlier, with techniques which are now no longer used

2. When Conservatives are the incumbants and Labour are the opposition- people have always loved to say they hate the ‘nasty’ (right wing) party and then vote for them anyway.

What you will see consistently is a TORY recvovery of support in the buildup to an election- thats happened each and every time.

By: Do the polls tighten up come polling day? By Garbo | The Wardman Wire

Do the polls tighten up come polling day? By Garbo | The Wardman Wire — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 11:43:59 +0000

[...] Smithson and Wells, for my money two of the top bloggers in the UK, have both written pieces on whether the assumed [...]

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 00:19:14 +0000

Andy Stidwill & the Lib Dems – comparison to 1979.

The Liberals did poorly in 1979, although it was actually 14.8% adjusted for seats contested – a bit higher than the 14.1%.

I think the Lib Dems probably (not definitely) will poll better than that in 2009/2010, but not necessarily significantly better. They only polled 17.2% in 1997 – at a time when the Conservatives were very unpopular indeed, and gaining many seats from them. So a share of the vote quite close to 1979 is not out of the question – unless they do better against Labour.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 00:13:04 +0000

Looking back again at 1979 and comparing it to the present, I think the obvious needs to be re-stated, because there is more to it.

Although the Conservatives did often lead strongly in the polls and local/by-elections in 1976-78, it neeed the Winter of Discontent to clearly give people an issue to hang their coat on.

One does rather feel that the Tories are still in that 1976-Sept 78 phase (before Jim Callaghan’s cancelled election). They haven’t yet really grabbed people so they think – yes, we want to go with this.

But it looks like they will win a modest overall majority of 20-40. But with a mistake or two, it could be hung.
Nor, do I rule out something completely unexpected, as the electorate will of course decide this.

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 14:24:38 +0000

Maybe there is some correlation with the economic cycle, but the value in terms of swing is only 3-5%, so is insufficient to reverse a large deficit, and other “events” are required ?

This would correspond to the historic perception of a swing back to the government, especially as Governments can either choose to go to the country early if it suits, or hold out to the fifth year if needed.

Given that the economic cycle had historically been around 5-7 years long up until the period after 1992 this enabled governments a fair leeway to steer the electoral cycle closer to the economic cycle.

Brown thus has two problems – firstly he is trying to claw back a relatively large deficit. Secondly, and more importabtly, the clock is ticking and the economic cycle – which he claimed to have abolished – is clearly out of sync !

By: CharlieJ

CharlieJ — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 11:28:59 +0000

Agan a very useful analysis and explains why the Conservatives are still 6-1 on at the bookies. THos who feel Labour have a chance should pile in to Labour at 4-1. There aren’t many places you can get that sort of return if you have belief!

By: NigelJ

NigelJ — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 09:36:26 +0000

I haven’t had time recently to read previous threads, so apols if someone has already made this point, but has anyone notced that three out of the four major polling companies have the same conservative lead in their most recent poll as in their previous one? Only populus is 12 points v 14 points.

Does this suggest that whilst their methodologies are different, and therefore produce slightly different results, there is some intrenchment in people’s views?

By: Anthony Wells

Anthony Wells — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 09:27:34 +0000

Onthejob – mid term elections people use local elections to give the government a bloody nose, if the local elections are on the same day as a general election they are more likely to vote with the ticket.

If a general election isn’t four years after the last one, I’d expect the outgoing government to always recover ground compared to the mid-term elections when the seats were last fought. If the election is four years after the last one, then the effect of having a GE on the same day would cancel out.