Comments on: Do governments always recover?

By: Lukw

Lukw — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 11:53:12 +0000

I’m not sure if the Liberals currently poll more middle class support than they did even before the Alliance, when their support was (by estimates) composed of a high majority of middle class people. The expansion in Liberal support in recent times has clearly come amongst certain sectors- students, ehtnic minorities, people in Northern Cities where they now run councils- that are very seldom middle class.

By: Dean Thomson

Dean Thomson — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 14:27:01 +0000

But Lukw, this time the Tories middle class support has the problem of a now well established Liberal Democrat competition, the Libs will reduce the con. comback signifcantly than they would have done in the days of the less organised or well established Alliance.

By: Lukw

Lukw — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 12:56:47 +0000

This is an excellent point. I always thought this- there has beennoi government recovery in the polls since 1997 in the runup to an election- the model only works in either of two scenarios-

1. Polling 1992 and earlier, with techniques which are now no longer used

2. When Conservatives are the incumbants and Labour are the opposition- people have always loved to say they hate the ‘nasty’ (right wing) party and then vote for them anyway.

What you will see consistently is a TORY recvovery of support in the buildup to an election- thats happened each and every time.

By: Do the polls tighten up come polling day? By Garbo | The Wardman Wire

Do the polls tighten up come polling day? By Garbo | The Wardman Wire — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 11:43:59 +0000

[...] Smithson and Wells, for my money two of the top bloggers in the UK, have both written pieces on whether the assumed [...]

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 00:19:14 +0000

Andy Stidwill & the Lib Dems – comparison to 1979.

The Liberals did poorly in 1979, although it was actually 14.8% adjusted for seats contested – a bit higher than the 14.1%.

I think the Lib Dems probably (not definitely) will poll better than that in 2009/2010, but not necessarily significantly better. They only polled 17.2% in 1997 – at a time when the Conservatives were very unpopular indeed, and gaining many seats from them. So a share of the vote quite close to 1979 is not out of the question – unless they do better against Labour.