There are unusual findings in a MORI poll in the Sun (presumably MORI’s monthly political monitor). The topline figures are CON 30%(-4), LAB 30%(-9), LDEM 25%(+6), Others 15%. The Sun does not report a figure for the BNP, though it may turn up on the MORI website. The 15% score for the “others” could mean that there been an increase for the BNP in this poll, and indeed the Sun’s report does suggest this.

The change in the Labour vote is obviously particularly extreme for a single month. MORI’s polls are far more erratic than any of the other pollsters. Since the general election the average change in a party’s level of support in MORI’s monthly polls is 3.2 points, compared to 2 points for Populus (who have have changes to their methodology), 1.7 for YouGov and 1.5 for ICM. MORI’s volatility is probably because they do not use any form of political weighting on their samples, weighting which serves to dampen down sample error for the other three pollsters.

While the MORI changes may be quite extreme, the movements do back up movements seen in the most recent YouGov and ICM polls. The BNP are up, Labour and Conservatives are down, and the Liberal Democrats are sharply up. I suspect that there are two separate processes going on here – a rise in BNP support after the publicity they received from Margaret Hodge’s comments (presumably at the expense of the Tories), and secondly a sharp fall in Labour support, for whom the Liberal Democrats are the clear beneficiaries.

UPDATE: The full figures are up on MORI’s website here. The BNP are in fact on 3%, so there is a slight rise but not to the extent reported by YouGov – once again this is not unexpected, people will be less willing to admit to supporting the BNP to an interviewer, as opposed to a computer screen. The poll was carried out between the 20th and 22nd of April, so would have come prior to Patricia Hewitt’s comments on the NHS and, obviously, the revelation that foreign prisoners were not being deported on release.

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