Comments on: Do the polls over-estimate Labour support?

By: Paul Smith

Paul Smith — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 09:52:25 +0000

The issue seems to be about fashion. When the tories were out of fashion people did not like to say they supported them. It could be argued now that the tories are in fashion and the polls may be overestimating their support because people are now ‘shy labour’

By: Dirty European S

Dirty European S — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 14:19:58 +0000

Could you imagine if the tories always did worse in elections that their opinion polls suggested?
Why would a left wing party do worse in elections than the polls suggest? I mean why would Kinnock and Foot leaders of left wing less pro american left parties do worse in elections than surveys suggest. Especialy under the Reagan CIA era.

By: ONTHEJOB

ONTHEJOB — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 23:52:52 +0000

maybe time has clouded my memory.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 22:52:52 +0000

Over-estimating at what point in time though?

Are they over-estimating at the moment, away from a General Election campaign, when the government is unpopular?
Probably not –

Would they over-estimate towards the end of an election campaign?
Possibly. Although the changes in methods may have reduced it.

Sorry to go back to 1979, but the pattern then seemed to be the government recovering slowly during the campaign, but doing a bit worse than expected against the polls in the last week.

By: Keith

Keith — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 22:12:59 +0000

It seems to me that there ought to be a difference between a poll done during an election campaign and one done mid-parliament (basically, like now) it’s because (you would think) people think more about the issues, make up their minds, etc. At the moment people are often too busy to think about politicians so much.

This is part of the reason why local council elections don’t predict general elections too well.