Tories holding their own from an elevated starting point and the Libs nicking a few from Labour. Fits the polling narrative perfectly or am I missing something?

They’re beginning to realise they can’t stop the Tories from winning I suspect!

Though I will doubtless be called a sceptic there is a great deal of evidence of the BBC being Labour/Liberal biased.

Tales of broadcasting house being strewn with champagne bottles after the ‘97 election are numerous and Vince Cable is practically treated as their economics correspondant.

With an incoming Tory administration and tighter purse stings among the general public in a year or two the idea of a reduced TV license or even, god forbid, sharing the pot with the private media companies will be a popular option.

I suspect a less partisan approach is being pushed by managers now. I doubt it will help them though, the fervour for ‘change’ among grass roots Conservatives will see the power of the BBC curtailed come what may.

12 months down the line we may find that Brown has been an instrumental player in this summer’s G20/Obama project to build a new economic system, and that Cameron’s policies are completely isolated and out of step with the new reality being enacted across Europe.

Thats not to say that Cameron’s tactics may not work – its just that if he finds himself increasingly having to explain how he is right and everyone else is wrong its going to be very hard for him. The one thing most pundits seem to agree on is that the Tory vote isn’t very hard yet – easy to take current polls and say “its a shoo-in” but weren’t polls radically different before Christmas?

Events dear boy, events….!

I suppose making the Tories out to be a do nothing/bankers party remains an option, but do suspect that option is rather running out/is likely to prove insufficient.

But, looking at it the other way round, the Conservatives have not yet won. And those who avoid the worst consequences of this recession could see more money in their incomes even if wages flatline, although utility bills could rise again.

Well firstly, we should remember that at present Labour are averaging 29%. And more importantly as Gin pointed out is there enough time left for a recovery?

When the polls for the February before the year of the last GE are examined we find Labour to be averaging 35%, and throughout most of the year there is a high degree of consistancy. A slight increase occurs around the end of that year and Labour finally gain 36% of the votes GE.

If the same pattern is followed then Labour will end up getting 30% of the votes at the next GE. But given the declining state of the economy it is hard to imagine that Labour’s popularity will not decline with it.

A leadership contest may occur in the summer. But this is high unlikely unless Labour are averaging 26% or less. And while a 10% improvement in 10 months is not impossible, it would be very difficult, certainly an awesome achievement!

Is anyone aware of local government overspend this year that may stop almost all non essential capital projects next year and specifically in context to this site, does this have a bearing on any ballot systems that were due to be replaced? Sorry but thought someone on here might know.

And that 24% figure in August 1985 was a Gallup poll, and they had some outdated methods which were revised at the end of 1996, suddenly reducing 40 point Labour leads to around 18.

I think there is a difference between hitting a dire figure like 25 or 23 per cent on a few slightly freakish occasions, and settling there for several months.
The latter happened quite a lot from about 1993 – and the government did not recover.

“Sheesh – there is no point arguing about it.”

Somebody is grumpy tonight………

Peter.