Comments on: Lib Dems up in latest ICM poll http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1873 Opinion polling and political analysis Sat, 11 Feb 2012 20:38:28 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Lib Dems surge as Labour sheds further support « The Wilted Rose http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1873/comment-page-1#comment-546877 Lib Dems surge as Labour sheds further support « The Wilted Rose Tue, 10 Feb 2009 05:45:16 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1873#comment-546877 [...] | Tags: Opinion Poll Monitor |   Opinion Poll Monitor’s particularly interested in the ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph (still no tables on www.icmresearch.co.uk, though), which shows the Lib Dem vote increasing by 6 [...] [...] | Tags: Opinion Poll Monitor |   Opinion Poll Monitor’s particularly interested in the ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph (still no tables on www.icmresearch.co.uk, though), which shows the Lib Dem vote increasing by 6 [...]

]]> By: thomas http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1873/comment-page-1#comment-546644 thomas Mon, 09 Feb 2009 13:02:12 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1873#comment-546644 NBeale, I hear you, but with an economic crisis on our hands it's possible the trend for poll variability is increasing in scale or frequency (or both) - how is it possible to measure? NBeale,
I hear you, but with an economic crisis on our hands it’s possible the trend for poll variability is increasing in scale or frequency (or both) – how is it possible to measure?

]]> By: James Ludlow http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1873/comment-page-1#comment-546593 James Ludlow Mon, 09 Feb 2009 10:18:36 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1873#comment-546593 Mike "the Oracle" makes a good point. Public opinion seems very polarised re: Labour and its quite possible that there's an element of "ideally, I'd vote Lib Dem ..." that polls pick up but which would be absent in a general election (when the luxury of "ideally" is replaced for some by a "lesser of two evils" approach to political reality). My impression is that a lot of people, not only Tories, simply want this Labour govt gone at the next election and will decide how to cast their vote with that as their primary objective. Mike “the Oracle” makes a good point. Public opinion seems very polarised re: Labour and its quite possible that there’s an element of “ideally, I’d vote Lib Dem …” that polls pick up but which would be absent in a general election (when the luxury of “ideally” is replaced for some by a “lesser of two evils” approach to political reality). My impression is that a lot of people, not only Tories, simply want this Labour govt gone at the next election and will decide how to cast their vote with that as their primary objective.

]]> By: NBeale http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1873/comment-page-1#comment-546589 NBeale Mon, 09 Feb 2009 10:04:13 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1873#comment-546589 Thomas: That would only be true if the distribution were symmetrical, and it's not. I've looked at this: the mean LD error is indeed zero but the median is -0.36. Small under-recordings of LD support are more likely than the "Normal Distribution" would suggest. There have been 5 cases of an under-recording of >3% but none of >4%. However that's statistics for you - you very rarely get exact Normal Distributions in practice. Thomas: That would only be true if the distribution were symmetrical, and it’s not. I’ve looked at this: the mean LD error is indeed zero but the median is -0.36. Small under-recordings of LD support are more likely than the “Normal Distribution” would suggest. There have been 5 cases of an under-recording of >3% but none of >4%. However that’s statistics for you – you very rarely get exact Normal Distributions in practice.

]]> By: Mike "the oracle" Richardson http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1873/comment-page-1#comment-546537 Mike "the oracle" Richardson Mon, 09 Feb 2009 03:53:17 +0000 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/?p=1873#comment-546537 I think everyone above including the POLLSTER ICM are wrong in this case with the Liberals. This time round - the British public know that there is only one way to oust the government & that is not to vote Liberal - no matter what the POLLS show at any time up to the GE - the Liberals will suffer along with Labour at the next GE. As i have predicted previously - it's not going to be all doom and gloom for the Liberals - once Labour lose the next election and they break up as a party for good - the Liberals will come back as the 2nd main party to fight future elections. Cut and paste - as usual you heard it first from "the oracle". I think everyone above including the POLLSTER ICM are wrong in this case with the Liberals.

This time round – the British public know that there is only one way to oust the government & that is not to vote Liberal – no matter what the POLLS show at any time up to the GE – the Liberals will suffer along with Labour at the next GE.

As i have predicted previously – it’s not going to be all doom and gloom for the Liberals – once Labour lose the next election and they break up as a party for good – the Liberals will come back as the 2nd main party to fight future elections.

Cut and paste – as usual you heard it first from “the oracle”.

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