While some disaffected Labour voters may well choose to vote LD in Scotland (as they will probably do in their tens (if not hundreds) of thousands in England, it is unlikely to help the LDs win any new seats, and may not be enough to retain those most at threat.

Almost all the LD seats in Scotland are former Tory seats (not that different to England). Of their current Scottish seats the exceptions are Dunfermline (won at a by-election) Dumbarton East, which was won from Labour in 2005, but actually contains a large part of the old Strathkelvin & Bearsden seat which had been a Tory/SNP/Lab marginal until 1987, and Caithness & Sutherland, which effectively became LD when the incumbent defected from Labour to SDP in 1981, and then to SLD and finally to LD.

Inverness has been a 4-way marginal in the past, and the SNP held the equivalent Holyrood seat by a substantial margin in 2007, so LDs are unlikely to hold on.

Both Gordon and Argyll & Bute are seats which had been mainly Tory for decades until 1983 & 1987, and are likely to become SNP/Tory marginals in the future.

In other LD seats at risk from the improvement in Tory fortunes in Scotland the LDs have already squeezed the Labour vote to its hard core.

Of the handful of Scottish seats where LDs are second, all are currently Labour held, and one is a 3-way marginal, so LD gains in Scotland are unlikely, while losses are probable.

I would estimate LDs holding 6-9 seats in Scotland at next election (from 12 now), and will fall from 2nd largest party by seats won to third or even fourth.

continued:

with the exception of one recent YouGov poll result which placed them on 13%… so underestimating Lib Dem chances, nope. Unless they show some kind of polling improvement they seem to be making little if any progress at all.

Prob two main factors:

1. removal of Kennedy (bitter taste left in many liberal mouths)
2. bad rep since they cooperated in the Lab-Lib holyrood coalition, since discredited administeration.

“Wont dissaffeffected Labour voters generally switch toLib Dem. [Perceived to be closer ideologically] .”

I’d say it varies from constituency to constituency. After all, in Stirling the Lib vote seems to be expected to go the the tories, and the labour vote decline to the SNP, however in places like Dumfries & Galloway the trend seems to indicate the Lib vote going to other parties in an effort to ‘keep the tories out’- so at this point I couldn’t generalise where the rather fickle lib dem vote will go (nationally speaking).

“Are we underestimating Lib Dems chances of progress”

Well, in terms of Scotland the Lib Dems have steadily failed to pick themselves up off the 12% mark,

Most other marginals used to be Tory strongholds, and they appear to be heading that way again (based on current 20%-tory, 12%lib Dem polling gap). In my book marginals are seats with a history of changing hands, and to be honest Scotland since 1979 has had steeadily less of these.