YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph has topline figures, with changes from the last YouGov poll in the middle of January, of CON 43%(-2), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 16%(+2).

I’ll do a full report tomorrow when I’ve seen all the figures (I can find references to on the Telegraph website in Jeff Randall’s column, but not the actual report of the poll!), but after a series of polls showing ever larger Conservative leads, this one shows a slight dropping back. One poll like that isn’t necessarily significant, but a couple more in the same vein and it would look like Labour have at least stopped their decline.


38 Responses to “YouGov show 11 point Tory lead”

  1. Interesting. I think the Labour slide was remarkably fast after New Year, and would not be too surprised to see it pause for a while. Still, 11 points is a healthy lead, so it will be interesting to see where things go from here.

    I think the real test will be in June, when the public next get a chance to have their say. By then we should be able to see a clearer pattern emerging. Right now it is possibly too soon to say what the trends will be in the coming months.

    By the way Anthony, I have taken the plunge and started a blog myself. It is my first, and it doesnt have any posts yet (some should appear over the weekend), but I would appreciate two things.
    1) A link on the left hand side of your blog (along with the others on the list there) to give me an initial readership base
    2) Some tips and advice on how to write / what to write about etc. Everyone can help me here, not just Anthony.

    The URL is http://ukpoliticsnews.blogspot.com
    The name of the blog is “Neil’s Perspective”
    I will put up an introductory post soon, hopefully in the next 24 hours, where people can post any comments and advice they see fit.

    Thanks,

    Neil.

  2. slight drift to the lib dems, nick did have a slightly better PMQ’s this week dave is now just holding firm and gordon brown well no movement this week but a further fall in his poll rating could be on the cards, but we will have to wait untill next week when the (imf) prediction hits home, also protests are starting to come into play what will this do to the polls if it gets worse, and on top of all that you have the job less totals and still falling house prices to cope with. on another matter i.e local elections, the key for the conservaives will be winning lancashire, derbyshire and nottinghamshire if they do not win them then they may not have the next election in the bag, but any more than 300-350 gains would see them across the finish line.

  3. SEAT PREDICTION (MONTHLY AVERAGE)

    CON 43.0% 356 seats

    LAB 31.6% 238 seats

    LD 15.5% 26 seats

    OTH 9.9% 30 seats

    CHANGE IN VOTE ON LAST MONTH

    CON 43.0% +3.5%

    LAB 31.6% -3.3%

    LD 15.5% +0.4%

    OTH 9.9% -0.6%

    ON LAST ELECTION

    CON +9.8%

    LAB -4.6%

    LD -7.1%

    OTH +1.9%

  4. Oh YouGov – they can’t be serious !! Being the previous trend setter – they seem to be drifting – lol.

    Does any realist out there really believe that Gordon is still above 30% ?

  5. Do we know when this poll was conducted? could this be before being told by the IMF that Birtains rescession will be longer and deeper than that in other major countries

  6. @Mike “Does any realist out there really believe that Gordon is still above 30% ?”

    Unlikely.

    A good section of the Labour core vote would not turn out in anycase and I think the LDs are lower than is realistic.

  7. I think this will probably be as good as its going to get in the polls from a Labour point of view
    Would like to see what the approval ratings of the leaders are at present

  8. Another one of GB`s statements seems to be comming back to haunt him
    “British jobs for British workers”

    Having worked in the construction industry there has been for some time a simmering unrest in the labour market regarding the amount of foreign labour used by companies

    Fine when there were plenty of jobs but I did wonder what would happen if we went in recession

    Whilst most other countries in the EU introduced restrictions on migrant our Government left the doors open without thinking of what that could mean to our own people

    This industrial action could spread and Im getting ready to join them !!

  9. How long before mutterings of rebellion amongst Labour MPs? Mike Smithson (politicalbetting.com)seems to be suggesting that he doesn’t believe macavity will lead labour into the GE. A few more double digit poll leads for Tories and this looks more likely. What is more interesting is that this poll (according to DT this morning) also reports that the Tories now have a 7 point lead on the economy!! A complete reversal on the issue that Gorgon sees as his strongest suit 9and Gorgon’s suits always did look a bad fit!) If not GB though, who will lead labour to almost certain defeat ? Unlikely to be jack Straw now, seeing as he is mixed up in the sleeze/corruption Lords row.

  10. BTW, I did a YouGov survey last night about Scottish Parliament voting intentions, the Scottish budget, and Scottish independence, so I guess there might be something coming in that area soon.

  11. WMA 43:32:16 it has in fact only reduced the WMA CLead from 11.5 to 11.4. At this stage we can’t infer that the swing to C has stalled, and the real economic and political situation makes this seem very unlikely.

    Apart from anything else, the “minister close to Downing Street” is quite right when he says: “The truth is nobody saw this coming and we all got it wrong, Gordon included, and sooner or later he’s going to have to level with people and say so, or we’ll never be listened to”

    This is where Cameron is so strategic in PMQs. Brown just blusters every time Cameron questions him about a negative fact and it makes it harder and harder for Brown to admit the truth later.

  12. Mike

    Callaghan got nearly 37% of the popular vote in the 1979 election. Labour supporters are incredibly loyal, even when bodies are going unburied and everyone is on strike.

    Interestingly Wikpedia says of the campaign
    ‘Towards the end of Labour’s campaign Callaghan claimed a Conservative government “would sit back and just allow firms to go bankrupt and jobs to be lost in the middle of a world recession” and that the Conservatives were “too big a gamble to take” ‘

    Sounds remarkably familiar to the ‘do nothing’ line being pedalled by Labour now. I wonder if Cameron will ever ask “What is your general approach, in view of the mounting chaos in the country at the moment?” at PMQs.

  13. David – it was done on the 27th to 29th, so Tuesday to Thursday. With YouGov polls most of the responses are normally received on the first day of fieldwork, so most people will have answered this on Tuesday.

    Thomas – I don’t have any idea what the survey you filled in was (if I did, client confidentiality would mean I could give this answer!) in the past though YouGov has done Scottish polling for the Sunday Times, the SNP and for academic studies like the BES, so that one might or might not be a media poll.

  14. Well YouGov didn’t ask me, so that’s one less vote for the SNP…..

    With regards to this poll the Scottish figures from YouGov are;

    Lab 39%, Tory 21%, LibDem 10%, SNP 27%, Others 3%.

    This shows an 11% rise in Labour support since the 19th, but as the SNP vote hasn’t changed and the 11% comes from the LibDems (-4) and Tories (-7) it brings me back to questioning the 28% for the Tories.

    I did say at the time that that figure was way up from the month before and the highest figure I’d ever seen and that I thought it was unreliable. 21% might still be wrong but it is more believable.

    The LibDems being down 4% makes them 2% below their 2008 average as opposed to 2% above, which is in the range I would suspect.

    I’ll put my neck out and say that as I’d expect the reported new Scottish poll to appear soon and that it will include a Westminster intention question that we will see;

    Labour 36%, Tory 20%, LibDem 12%, SNP 28%, Others 4%, all +/-2%.

    Obviously I’d like to see it at 34% Labour 30% SNP, but it might well depend how the poll is framed;

    In terms of a Holyrood and the budget debate or In a UK context focusing on the economy.

    Peter.

  15. peter cairns- this is a more realistic figure for conservative vote in scotland and the labour vote is now about right to.

  16. Glenn Benson

    I agree with your sentiment about british Jobs for british workers but this is sadly one of the things that happens when UK gets more integrated into the EU.

    Actually it would go against EU law (which we have signed up to) to say “british jobs for british workers ” no matter how harsh the current economic climates.

  17. Pace Geoffrey Robinson on today in politics today expect a careful acknowledgment in the coming weeks from GB (maybe through Darling) that failure to regulate the financial sector adequately has contributed to the current situation. TiP also had some poll numbers (Com RES) which support the suggestion that many voters are still undecided plus GB/AD now back ahead of DC/GO on handling the economy.Aswell as the 20 years payback the IFS praised Gov’t action on fiscal stimulus including the V.A.T cut which Clarke supported of course.
    Us straw clutchers have a little bit more to hold on to.

  18. Just seen Anthony’s line on the TiP poll and non politcal weighting. Perhaps the straw I am holding on to is a little more frayed. The undecided (or wait and see) part of the electorate is still the most important and whilst the Cons may well receive most of these it is by no means certain.

  19. @ ktl – no, it wouldn’t go against EU law. We could just do what various other countries already do – make companies subject to local employment laws. This is perfectly legal – France, Germany and several other countries have been doing it for some time.

    I’m not especially pro-EU but the problem here is our beloved government’s failure to seek out and implement ways that stop EU laws working against the interests of British people.

    If these protests continue to spread, Brown is going to be in even deeper doo-doo than he is already.

  20. I was a little shocked at the steepness of the decline of Labour. This poll together with ICM’s does confirm that Labour are between 32 and 31%.

    As the recession sadly bites I expect an average drop of between 1 to 2% for Labour each months for the next 6 months at least.

    It will be interesting to see whether or not most of the support will go the Conservatives way this time.

  21. James Ludlow
    I totally agree what I understand is only Britain,Ireland and Sweden signed up to a completely open borders policy

    The other EU countries have an opt out clause based on quotas ( designed to protect their workforce)

    But I think by 2012 all countries have to sign up to the open borders policy that will probably be just enough time to get them through this recession

    But it wont help British workers!!

  22. The limits that other countries have imposed are for new EU entrants such as Poland, but as this dispute is about contracts won by companies in Portugal and Italy it isn’t relevant.

    For a country that has been living on inward investment for a decade or more to be talking about limiting foreign companies tendering for work here is both hypocritical and in the current climate economic foolish.

    Do anyone really think that with the financial sector in ruins and the UK hoping to use the low pound to boost exports to the EU countries (like, lets say, Italy and Portugal) we should be telling our export targets that their companies aren’t welcome here.

    This is the kind of xenophobic knee jerk reaction that has more to do with the politics of “The Sun” than a liberal democracy.

    Peter.

  23. Peter

    I agree with you. Unfortunately the politics of the Sun influences far more swing voters than any other paper.

    To be honest, the likely impact of these protests is to transfer a large chunk of Labour’s (historic) core vote across to the BNP, or the PUB, on polling day.

    Paul H-J

  24. Peter
    I`m sorry I just dont agree with you
    I am not saying foreign companies should not invest and work here

    But there must be some kind of local bias towards local labour especially in hard times
    Saying a skilled man who is annoyed that he cant find work,because foreign workers are being employed instead xenophobic or a hypocrite is frankly crass
    Its no knee jerk reaction when you cant find a job!

    If “The Sun” agrees with my view then good on them!!
    You do not have to be a member of BNP or have right wing views to want jobs to go to our own people first

  25. Our economy is on the brink of collapse because foreign investors won’t lend here. it’s the pull out of foreign banks from UK lending that has resulted in viable UK companies being pushed to the wall.

    We have an open economy that has grown up on trade and the free flow of capital and Labour with a health service that has relied on importing skilled foreign labour for decades.

    Now things get tight it’s suddenly “British jobs for British workers”. The fact is if we start to be protectionist now we will go into melt down. We need foreign investment more than they need our exports.

    The number of foreign workers on construction contracts like this in this country is tiny. The people protesting aren’t low paid workers they are skilled people on good wages who are saying ” We should be protected from the market and Italian companies doing work here, but our French employers should still be investing millions in our futures.

    Fine if you and The Sun want the Italians to go because things are tough, let them, oh and while your at it we’ll just tell EADS to close those Airbus plants, Santander to close the Abbey, Nissan and Honda not to reopen their plants.

    Oh and once we’ve stopped bragging about HMS darling our newest warship we’ll stop it in Dock and take out that state of the art Italian missile system we’ve been pretending is British.

    Lets block up the English channel because Little England doesn’t need the world, It’s time to save Blighty from Johnny foreigner.

    Peter.

  26. Couple of points raised above – “that the Labour vote may go across the BNP” because of migrant labour – most of the core BNP vote are ex Labour voters anyway – so no change there. The Labour Party in this country have always played the class & race card and continue to do so even in 2009 – they have caused the growth of parties like the BNP !

    Does anyone think that 2008 / 2009 is looking more and more like 1979 and the winter of discontent / only this time it’s gonna be the 2 years of discontent .

    “Crisis, what crisis?” – the now famous words of James Callaghan – what will be the famous words of Gordon Brown that go down in political history ? So many to choose from !

    I see that YouGov are rushing out another political POLL which i was part of this week – not surprising as the headlines are all dreadful everyday – absolutely frightening – we could well see street riots before the end of the year as more people lose their jobs !

  27. I liked someones comment on the TV the other day about the billions of pounds given to the banks – which has now disappeared into a blackhole.

    The contributor suggested that the billions should have been shared out amongst all adults in the UK – then they could have banked it as savings in the banks and spent it in the shops !!

  28. Or even paid off everyone’s mortgages !

  29. @ Glenn – it’s not only about open borders. There are ways in which governments can conform with EU rules on an open labour market while still protecting local workforces – for example, it can make it a condition of businesses winning contracts or setting up somewhere that they take on British workers. This, I believe, is what happens in Germany and various other countries.

    @ Peter – you’re so very wrong it’s hard to know where to start. Suffice to say that this ideology-driven insistence on a totally open EU-wide labour market looks very likely to be a vote-loser from now on until at least the end of the recession. A lot of people still harbour the strange old-fashioned view that elect and pay the salaries of their government so that it can look after their interests. And, as unemployment figures soar – swollen by job losses suffered by people used to working and who want to work – you’re going to have a hard time persuading voters that we need to import workers.

    It’s impossible to tell yet how all this is going to pan out but to my mind we’re starting to see shifts that might peter out or which might become seismic – a rejection of open borders policies, several countries apparently considering withdrawing from the Euro in order to regain sufficient control of their economies, etc. The times they are a-changing.

  30. Peter
    “The number of foregn workers on construction sites like this is tiny”

    Just shows how out of touch you really are !!
    You have quite obviously never been on or near a construction site over the past few years
    Even British companies employ large numbers of skilled foreign workers

    Having been unemployed for two months just before xmas I applied for a job at a large construction site in my town
    I was informed at first that I was succesfull and could start in the new year

    But when I called to get my start date the engineer told me all plans had been scrapped to take on local labour

    They were an Irish company and had to import their own skilled workers because they had no work in Ireland

    As I said before people can accept that when there is enough work to go around

    Your Liberal claptrap dosent wear when your on the dole worrying if you may lose your home

    Oh and by the way Nissan and Honda do not bring thousands of skilled Japanees workers here to operate their plants do they!!

  31. The paradox of many on the right believing in free trade except where immigration is concerned always tickles me.
    It will be intersting to see if Cam is opportunistic for short term poll gains or statemenlike.

  32. JIM JAM – trade and people are rather different things, operating in rather different ways and making rather different demands on society. And in what sense anyway are the unionised workers currently protesting “on the right”?

    The choice for the British left is whether they are going to support British workers (which, after all, is what the Labour Party was founded to do) or continue to pursue a liberal internationalist policy at the expense of British workers. You seem to have already decided.

    And to bring this back to the polls, I’ll be very interested to see how the parties respond to the protests in Lincolnshire and elsewhere and how public opinion, in turn, responds to them.

  33. James Ludlow

    Well said!

    But even if public opinion were on the protesters side the Liberal internationlists would no doubt still site the same voters as xenophbic hypocrites

    But any party must be very wary of ignoring a strong public opinion

  34. There is now a post with analysis of this poll, and predictions for the June elections on the blog “An Angle On Politics” at http://ukpoliticsnews.blogspot.com

    It has a link to UKPR, so perhaps Anthony will be so kind as to reciprocate :) Also, all readers of this blog please feel free to go along, comment, and become regulars on my blog.

    Thanks.

  35. Peter is right about “foreign workers”.

    The Obama intervention package has a clear protectionist element in it.The unions will always react in this way to try & protect jobs.

    Brown set out a protectionist policy here when he said “British jobs for British Workers”. But the difference between Obama& Brown is intent.

    Obama means it. For Brown it’s just another of his glib feel-good sound bites , which are being exposed, one by one, as empty rhetoric.

    In Uk , Brown’s dishonest espousal of protectionism will just give votes to BNP .

  36. Jim Jam,
    “The paradox of many on the right believing in free trade except where immigration is concerned always tickles me.”

    On the Right!?

    Perhaps you refer to Labours cousins at the BNP?

    I can promise you that for many Libertarian minded right wingers like myself the idea of any form of protectionism is unthinkable.

    The maintainance of free movement of trade and labour is what will see us out of this mess in the end which is why I’d like to see the back of the Labour party and their constant meddling!

    There is not the faintest chance of Cameron backing moves to curb migrant workers from the EU. I suspect his best bet is to remain silent on the current strikes and talk some populist rubbish about non-EU immigrants instead.

  37. @ Peter,

    HMS Daring’s missile system is not Italian. It was built as a joint venture by British, French and Italian companies, but the main developer, with a 77% share in the project, was UKAMS, a British company. So there is another one for the list of fictions relied upon by pro-EUropeans to pretend the UK needs the EU.

  38. What people may not realise is many forgein companies are paying their workers from off shore accounts ( I have had experience of this)

    There is a good possibility that the Italian workers in Lincon may be paid in this way

    That means they will not be paying UK taxes or NI contributions

    Plus the fact they have all their facilities on their boat
    and not spending their money in local business its a lose lose situation for the British economy