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	<title>Comments on: ICM show a 12 point Tory lead</title>
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	<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1830</link>
	<description>Opinion polling and political analysis</description>
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		<title>By: Keir</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1830/comment-page-1#comment-543175</link>
		<dc:creator>Keir</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Jan 2009 15:49:46 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>sorry that should read: - 

Some psyche 101: - 

We usually use insults for other people which we feel will hurt them most, but this is based on our own opinion of what would hurt us.

For example people call others fat who themselves have either low self esteem or are fat. 

It makes PMQ&#039;s more interesting for both parties

Maybe Gordon is scared that doing nothing is the thing percieved oppinion of himself?

David could be worried about people linking past economic failures to him and his team?

Please take this further, the method work (simple as it is). Maybe it&#039;s something worth exploiting in the months ahead.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>sorry that should read: &#8211; </p>
<p>Some psyche 101: &#8211; </p>
<p>We usually use insults for other people which we feel will hurt them most, but this is based on our own opinion of what would hurt us.</p>
<p>For example people call others fat who themselves have either low self esteem or are fat. </p>
<p>It makes PMQ&#8217;s more interesting for both parties</p>
<p>Maybe Gordon is scared that doing nothing is the thing percieved oppinion of himself?</p>
<p>David could be worried about people linking past economic failures to him and his team?</p>
<p>Please take this further, the method work (simple as it is). Maybe it&#8217;s something worth exploiting in the months ahead.</p>
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		<title>By: Keir</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1830/comment-page-1#comment-543174</link>
		<dc:creator>Keir</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Jan 2009 15:46:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1830#comment-543174</guid>
		<description>Some psyche 101: - 

We usually use insults of other people which we feel would hurt them most, but this is based on our own opinion of what would hurt us.

For example people call others fat who are themselves have either low self esteem or fat. 

It makes PMQ&#039;s more interesting for both parties</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some psyche 101: &#8211; </p>
<p>We usually use insults of other people which we feel would hurt them most, but this is based on our own opinion of what would hurt us.</p>
<p>For example people call others fat who are themselves have either low self esteem or fat. </p>
<p>It makes PMQ&#8217;s more interesting for both parties</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: thomas</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1830/comment-page-1#comment-543028</link>
		<dc:creator>thomas</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Jan 2009 03:06:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1830#comment-543028</guid>
		<description>The polls are definitely volatile.

In fact they are so volatile that they seem to have taken on a cyclical nature. Fancy that - Brown hasn&#039;t abolished boom and bust, he&#039;s introduced it on a 6-month cycle into the polls!

Can we trust the polls? 

One thing is for certain, the rapidly changing economic climate added to the radical changes to social relationships is having a combination effect which is radically realigning voter opinion. We might be able to trust them for that moment in time, but I wouldn&#039;t trust them to have any relevance further than 1 week ahead. Margin of Error is an absolute non-sequitur.

So don&#039;t be surprised if Brown charges into a 20pt lead by Easter and calls a snap election, before being beaten resoundingly. 

It&#039;s that bad - people are changing their minds on an almost daily basis - which is the ideal breeding ground for polarisation and radicalisation of opinion. Scary times indeed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The polls are definitely volatile.</p>
<p>In fact they are so volatile that they seem to have taken on a cyclical nature. Fancy that &#8211; Brown hasn&#8217;t abolished boom and bust, he&#8217;s introduced it on a 6-month cycle into the polls!</p>
<p>Can we trust the polls? </p>
<p>One thing is for certain, the rapidly changing economic climate added to the radical changes to social relationships is having a combination effect which is radically realigning voter opinion. We might be able to trust them for that moment in time, but I wouldn&#8217;t trust them to have any relevance further than 1 week ahead. Margin of Error is an absolute non-sequitur.</p>
<p>So don&#8217;t be surprised if Brown charges into a 20pt lead by Easter and calls a snap election, before being beaten resoundingly. </p>
<p>It&#8217;s that bad &#8211; people are changing their minds on an almost daily basis &#8211; which is the ideal breeding ground for polarisation and radicalisation of opinion. Scary times indeed.</p>
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		<title>By: AngusA</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1830/comment-page-1#comment-542898</link>
		<dc:creator>AngusA</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Jan 2009 15:15:54 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>MarkM &amp; NigelJ, I think that what you both say is very true but does the general public make these nuanced distinctions about funding or do they just think that the banks are recovering and therefore government policy is working?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>MarkM &amp; NigelJ, I think that what you both say is very true but does the general public make these nuanced distinctions about funding or do they just think that the banks are recovering and therefore government policy is working?</p>
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		<title>By: NigelJ</title>
		<link>http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1830/comment-page-1#comment-542851</link>
		<dc:creator>NigelJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Jan 2009 11:58:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1830#comment-542851</guid>
		<description>Good to see the thread on this has returned to polling, as opposed to a few recently that had some contributors writing essays in support of their own political opinion 

Angusa makes an interesting point, but I think it would have to be rather more than just a recovery of Barclays to have an effect on the polls for Labour. Also it may be noticed that barclays has not received any public money. The banks that have are still very much in the doldrums, and show no sign of lending. No &quot;green shoots&quot; = no recovery at all for Gordon &quot;Hubris&quot; Brown.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good to see the thread on this has returned to polling, as opposed to a few recently that had some contributors writing essays in support of their own political opinion </p>
<p>Angusa makes an interesting point, but I think it would have to be rather more than just a recovery of Barclays to have an effect on the polls for Labour. Also it may be noticed that barclays has not received any public money. The banks that have are still very much in the doldrums, and show no sign of lending. No &#8220;green shoots&#8221; = no recovery at all for Gordon &#8220;Hubris&#8221; Brown.</p>
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