Some psyche 101: –

We usually use insults for other people which we feel will hurt them most, but this is based on our own opinion of what would hurt us.

For example people call others fat who themselves have either low self esteem or are fat.

It makes PMQ’s more interesting for both parties

Maybe Gordon is scared that doing nothing is the thing percieved oppinion of himself?

David could be worried about people linking past economic failures to him and his team?

Please take this further, the method work (simple as it is). Maybe it’s something worth exploiting in the months ahead.

We usually use insults of other people which we feel would hurt them most, but this is based on our own opinion of what would hurt us.

For example people call others fat who are themselves have either low self esteem or fat.

It makes PMQ’s more interesting for both parties

In fact they are so volatile that they seem to have taken on a cyclical nature. Fancy that – Brown hasn’t abolished boom and bust, he’s introduced it on a 6-month cycle into the polls!

Can we trust the polls?

One thing is for certain, the rapidly changing economic climate added to the radical changes to social relationships is having a combination effect which is radically realigning voter opinion. We might be able to trust them for that moment in time, but I wouldn’t trust them to have any relevance further than 1 week ahead. Margin of Error is an absolute non-sequitur.

So don’t be surprised if Brown charges into a 20pt lead by Easter and calls a snap election, before being beaten resoundingly.

It’s that bad – people are changing their minds on an almost daily basis – which is the ideal breeding ground for polarisation and radicalisation of opinion. Scary times indeed.

Angusa makes an interesting point, but I think it would have to be rather more than just a recovery of Barclays to have an effect on the polls for Labour. Also it may be noticed that barclays has not received any public money. The banks that have are still very much in the doldrums, and show no sign of lending. No “green shoots” = no recovery at all for Gordon “Hubris” Brown.

I think the trend Anthony identified was due to economic optimism linked to government action. Barclays was very publicly not involved in the bailout and by posting better than expected results have shown up Mr Brown’s latest position of “government action is the only solution”.

In fact, it could almost be argued that government action achieved exactly what could have been achieved privately, except with the shotgun wedding of Lloyds TSB with HBOS destroying the value of Lloyds, looked upon as the ’safe bank’ when everything started going down the pan.

I would expect Labour’s position to increase with economic confidence only if it is seen that Labour’s policies are making things better. If Barclay’s show that it was possible for banks to make it through the crisis on their own then I wouldn’t expect a jump in Labour support with improved confidence.

A CBI survey concludes that VAT reduction had no effect in January.

Germany’s reduction in personal taxation produces first signs of increasing consumer confidence.

Sleeze in the Lords hits Labour & Cameron seizes the initiative.

Brown is losing control of the agenda. If he doesn’t pull a rabbit from the hat soon he could see that 30% floor collapse.

If the media narrative changes from its current position (that the bank bail outs were generally a good idea) to a more mixed or opposing one then Labour will be finished electoraly.

Sadly for Labour I dont think Barclays’ good fortune will make a lot of difference to Labour’s vote.
This, I feel, is because Barclays were not involved in Brown’s bail-out and so managed to find themselves in this position due to a simple act of honest disclosure which, in turn was rewarded with renewed trust by investors.
This is rather unfortunate for Brown, as it may give the rather mixed message that if the other high street banks had shown similar contrition, then renewed investment in them could have likewise resulted, thereby doing away with the need for Brown’s panic measures of billions of pounds of fiscal underpinning.
Now, I am not an economist, so the above two paragraphs maybe totally testicular!
But I do feel that Labour’s fortunes are fast ebbing away purely because Brown looks more and more like a rabbit caught in the glare of the recession’s headlights, since his horrendously massive borrowing gamble seems to have failed. Now without a plan B and identified as being bankrupt of further ideas, Brown has resorted to his usual strategy of attending futile summit after futile summit, amidst a cloud of bluster and bombast in an attempt to disguise the fact that he has finally been rumbled by the electorate