Comments on: ComRes too show a double digit Tory lead

By: Noel

Noel — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 22:25:36 +0000

Tony Blair passed the poisened chalice to GB withou a whimper.
Do you think he knew what asw going to happen.???
I do
Clever bloke

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 22:28:33 +0000

Just looked further,
I think this poll has rather a high others, and is a bit low for Labour.
But other polls seem to show the general trends.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 22:25:34 +0000

This could be a bit of an outlyer, but it does indicate that the government is going to struggle politically when it’s back to the domestic grind on the economy, as opposed to that period from September onwards where the banks were the lightning conductor.

By: James

James — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 21:34:09 +0000

Hi Marcia,
Whatever the rights and wrongs of the SNP’s local income tax (currently better understood as a national salary tax), it’s not the same as the Scottish Variable Rate. The latter covers the basic rate of income tax payable in Scotland, and would be received (or paid for) by the Scottish Government were it ever to be used, and the former is a tax to support local council spending.

James

By: Frederic Stansfield

Frederic Stansfield — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 20:47:10 +0000

This poll seems to tie in with the Ian Dale observatioon you are reporting : the C2s have gone back to the Tories. The recession has gone on from the financial sector crisis to hurt this group.

It seems that there is a group of about 5% of the electorate which is readily prepared to change voting intentions almost at whim according to its economic interests. When, as most of the time, these people are going for the Tories we get, as before, polls similar to this one. When they go for Labour we get results like last Autumn. Except for quick transitions, we don’t get many polls in between.

This observation tends to confirm in my mind an observation I posted toward the end of last year. We should think not so much of steady swings in voting intentions, but discontinous changes in the state of these intentions, which mathematical catastrophe theory should help us understand.

it is difficult to see what Labour can do now to get the C2s back.

By: marcia

marcia — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 19:06:57 +0000

Nick – you might like to know that the HMRC system already has the coding in place for LIT as the SVR as it was called then in 1999 just needs the go ahead by an Act of Parliament. Lots of hot air and hogwash from the HMRC person. He has a lot to answer for with his department in a mess. Nothing under £10,000 owed being collected – if you under-state your income by at least £5000 nothing happens as it is not being looked at. I don’t know how the Government will raise the tax during this recession when they are reducing HMRC staff and the place in choas – all the small offices with the experienced staff being shut. Doesn’t make sense. Be interesting to see if these closures will have an effect in marginal seats.

By: Nick Keene

Nick Keene — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 18:02:23 +0000

Peter

I find it hard to believe that an SNP driven proposal on LIT -upon which my local Lib Dem MSP has gone distinctly cool -will get past the Westminster parliament or government. It won’t be blocked just shelved whilst a committee examines it up to the time Mr Brown calls an election. Such a committee will no doubt be hijacked by the anti -Barnett formula brigade to boot.
After the election we are in a new ball game and whose knows what will happen. But this side of an election I predict LIT will be sidelined.

By: sunbeam

sunbeam — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 16:08:11 +0000

Obama will be delighted to hear Oracle’s prediction!!

I agee with those that say that Brown should call an election soon. The longer this goes – the worse this gets for Labour.

If Brown insists on dragging this out then all he’ll achieve is a devastation of his party. Labour will be able to look forward to Opposition for 12 years.

By: Mike "the oracle" Richardson

Mike "the oracle" Richardson — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 15:51:20 +0000

Interesting to see that the last time ComRes gave a Tory lead above 15% was way back in early september 2008 – all the POLLSTERS seem to be on a similar footing at the moment and have come into line with the revered “Oracle”.

I do like my predictions backed up with proof in the POLLS.

Everyone seems to be getting so excited on here about the next election – it’s a long way off (even further off if you are one of millions of people who are struggling to get by day to day under this regime).

Remember my prediction – especially the Labour hanger on’s on here, waiting for a miracle to happen – your party will have vanished within months after the next election – the signs of the break up will already be visible by the end of this year – “cut and paste”.

Oh yeah – please stop talking about Barack Hussein Obama – he will only be a flash in the pan – he certainly won’t affect anything happening in the UK and won’t win a 2nd term in office – “cut and paste”.

By: Neil

Neil — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 15:27:56 +0000

CharlieJ,

I agree with you entirely. As a Conservative I say it would be great if Gordon clung on, but the country does have to come first. I think it is a case of striking a balance between his staying long enough to ensure Labour get kicked into the wilderness, but not long enough to make the economy irrecoverable.