The voting intention figures from YouGov’s poll for the Evening Standard last week have been released in today’s paper. The topline figures, with changes from the last general election, are CON 43%(+11), LAB 37%(-2), LDEM 13%(-9) – equating to a 6.5 point swing to the Conservatives. The poll was done at much the same time as the YouGov poll for the Sunday Times yesterday, which showed an 8 point swing to the Conservatives, so does suggest that the Tories are doing rather less well in London than elsewhere in the country.

On a straight uniform swing this would see the Conservatives winning 37 seats, up from 21 at the moment. Labour would win 34 or 35 seats (depending on Bethnal Green and Bow), down from 44 at the moment, losing Battersea, Brentford & Isleworth, (notionally) Croydon Central, Finchley & Golders Green, Hampstead & Kilburn, Harrow East, Hendon, Poplar & Limehouse, Tooting, Westminster North and Eltham. The poor old Lib Dems would be left with just one seat in London, that of Simon Hughes in Bermondsey. In reality, as we saw in the large PoliticsHome poll of marginals last year, they will likely to somewhat better than that because of tactical and personal votes, but that only goes so far.

21 Responses to “Voting intentions in London”

  1. The difference between a 6.5% swing and and 8% swing isn’t statistically significant. Esp since the Sunday Times Poll seems to have been somewhat overcooking the C Lead which is 9 on (my) Weighted Moving Average.

    I doubt also whether the political impact of the 3rd Runway has been fully felt yet.

  2. Nbeale

    Don’t forget the golden rule of polling in your WMA. The most accurate poll is the one which shows the worst position for Labour.

  3. Any idea why this Liberal wipeout is looking so likely? Nick Clegg may not look up to the job, but losing 9 out of 22 voters looks pretty extreme.

  4. James, partial Iraq unwind? Some voters who went LD over the war ‘returning’ to Labour?

  5. Think NBEALE is right that 45% is probably at high end of margin of error
    Still 3 ’09 national polls with Tories over 40% which is pleasing for them; expect a minor Clarke bounce which could be enough to push them close to 45% average in February.
    Either way any chance of April gone and GB will hope for better in 2010.

  6. @ James – I suspect the Lib Dem’s are getting squeezed partly because those who dislike Labour are shifting towards the Tories with the aim of ousting Labour (a Lib Dem vote can seem like a frivolous gesture when you really want a government out), and partly because Nick Clegg is the least impressive, least charismatic leader the Lib Dems have had for a long while.

  7. I think this is merely a case (for the Lib Dems) of mid-term blues. Clegg will drag us up by a couple of points during the general election. Perhaps not to 23%, but not far off. That said, I don’t believe it will be automatic. Work needs to be put in, and no doubt it will be.

  8. It is possible that the swing will be lower than nationally as London was already “ahead of the curve” at the last election in the move away from Labour. It would perhaps be interesting to test this if anyone is able to calculate the swing from the election before last and compare/contrast this with the national YouGov figures against the same election – if you understand what I am saying!!!

    Also interested to see how these figures reflect the mayoral election. Anthony?

  9. With respect to the LibDems – I think they fell into an understandable trap when they ditched Ming – they tried to elect a leader that on the surface looked, sounded and acted like Cameron. As a consequence they have found their leader completely eclipsed not only by Cameron but also by his Clegg’s own deputy. Whether people like it or not, people do seem to vote for the leader of a party as much a sthe party itself(whoops unsubstantiated claim that – any data on that one anyone?)

  10. IPSOS/MORI – Conservatives lead Labour by 14 points.

    C: 44 L: 30 LD: 17

  11. Latest Ipsos Mori poll just published…

    CONSERVATIVES 44% (+5)
    LABOUR 30% (-5)
    LIB DEMS 17% (+2)

    I’m definitely starting to see a trend here

  12. Thomas,

    “Clegg will drag “US” up by a couple of points during the general election.”

    Good to see you have finally given up the pretence of being a neutral.


  13. Peter, that’s a different Thomas.

    Thomas, we aleady have a regular poster who comments as Thomas, so it might make things less confusing if you add an initial or something!

  14. I think that London is a special case. More Conservative than your average urban area, but still more Labour than any rural area. That the Conservatives have a 6 point lead in any urban area (even London) is quite telling, and a lead of 13 points nationally (14 according to the new MORI poll) is quite conceivable.

  15. James @ 2:04pm

    One reason why LDs may be doing comparatively worse in London is that they actually did relatively better in London in 2005 than nationally.

    Also, since then, Simon Hughes has dropped out of the limelight and they have had a rather awful mayoral/london assembly election led by Brian Paddick.

    Just to add to their woes, their track record in local government has come under scrutiny, and this may add to the fall in favour.

  16. Anthony,

    The Standard were reporting this poll as indicating that Labour would lose 11 of their 44 seats in London. Are they using different projections ?

    Paul H-

  17. Anthony,

    Most sites have a thing that doesn’t let two people use the same name. I just assumed that this was the case too.

    Thomas Mk2,

    Sorry for the mistake there’s nothing wrong with being a LibDem, well nothing some electro-convulsive therapy won’t fix……

    Thomas Mk1,

    You could of course make this a lot simpler by just owning up.


  18. Haha, Peter – good to see you attatched that condition to the rather dubious statement that “there’s nothing wrong with being a LibDem”

  19. maybe all LibDems are now called Thomas as they are going through a period of doubt!

  20. Sorta proves that Boris Johnson & the party he stood for is still liked by the Londoners – regardless of negative spin by his oppostition.

  21. NigelJ / Peter

    Is “Tavish” Gaelic for “Thomas” ?

    Certainly showing signs of “doubt” after last night !

    Paul H-J