The ComRes poll in the Sunday Indy also has a swing back to the Conservatives, albeit, the lead isn’t quite as big as YouGov’s. The topline figures, with changes from the last ComRes poll, are CON 41% (+2), LAB 32% (-2), LDEM 15% (-1). The poll was conducted on the 14th and 15th January. We now have ComRes, Populus and YouGov all showing a shift back to the Tories since Christmas.

Despite the shift to the Conservatives, some of the other questions in the poll are less good for them. 50% of people still think they are not ready for government, 41% disagree. 47% agree with the statement that Barack Obama will have a better relationship with Gordon Brown than he would with David Cameron were he PM. On Labour, on 24% said they agreed with the statement that Labour were less divided under Gordon Brown than they were under Blair, 63% disagreed.


19 Responses to “ComRes also show move back to the Tories”

  1. The AW economic expectations theory proved correct!

    It’s going to get worse for Labour as panic turns into anger over Brown’s handling of the economy.

    I did say that Brown should have gambled on a December 4th election ;-)

  2. There seem to be signs that Banks are still in trouble-talk of more Bailouts-a “Bad Bank” being set up.-Credit Card companies in trouble & be down rated -Barclay’s shares shorted.

    God knows what the true extent of asset overvaluation on Banks’ balance sheets is.

    This could get much much worse yet.

    Brown must be having a living nightmare-and Cameron praying the worst becomes visible before next year.

  3. I said that any rise above 32% for Labour is likely to be a blip. These 2 polls do seem to confirm that this has happened.

    3% drop is bigger than I expected by this point. If things continue at this rate the coming 6 months MIGHT prove to be apocalyptic for Labour.

    I’m certainly inclined to think that Labour will be no better than 29% by June. We shall see.

  4. So the Tories poll 41% and in the same poll 50% say they are not ready for government, leaving the other 50% to say they are ready for government. Assuming (always dangerous) the 41% who polled for them will say they are ready for govt then that leaves 9% who are anti-tory saying that the party are ready for government. Glass half full or half empty?

  5. And the train rolls on – after a short break at the station ! Very predictable – soon we will see the labour MP’s coming out of the woodwork again attacking Brown – that made for good media reading and listening during the summer.

    There will be no more Brown bounces now – but we will see him on the TV a lot more with promises and trips around the globe to help other countries while Britain sinks.

    By the time this regime leave office in 2010 – the phrase “winter of discontent” labelled on Labour in 1979 will be “24 months of horror”.

  6. I had agreed with many others that Brown should be now planning for a Spring election. I thought at the time that if he went to the country early he would stand a slim chance of winning, but now I feel the best he can hope for is a defeat with some degree of honour. I also get the feeling that the TV coverage of the parties is covering more of what the Tories have to say – probably because they are FINALLY making their presence felt! Making Hague his deputy was a good move and so was bringing back Ken Clarke – I just hope that Clarke doesn’t start banging on about europe now that the spotlight is closer to him than it has been for many years!
    With Darling admitting recently that he may have underestimated the severity and longevity of this recession, coupled with his toe-curling performance on Sky, followed not long after by the ‘green shoots’ gaffe by one of Mandy’s minions – made even more insensitive by the oily utterings of Mandy himself on Newnight, all point to a government that simply no longer has any clue now about how to help the economy. Roll on 2010!

  7. Tony K

    Describing Baroness Shriti Vadera as “one of Mandy'”s Minions” is well wide of the target.

    She is a key if not the key member of the Prime Ministers inner inner circle.

    She is universaly unpopular with the civil servants who have worked with/for her, not necessarily a bad thing….. however she is not known for her sensitivity. That might be acceptable in a special advisor, but making such a mercurial figure a minister was alwayes asking for trouble.

    The appointment and the gaffe are actually quite revealing of the Brown bunker mentality and the views expressed therin.

  8. Oddjob – She is a key if not the key member of the Prime Ministers inner inner circle.

    Thanks for that – I was just segwaying my way into a comment about Mandy!
    I must admit I know very little of Baroness Shriti Vadera – although, understandably, more is known about her now, since her emergence into the media spotlight
    However, your comment that:

    The appointment and the gaffe are actually quite revealing of the Brown bunker mentality and the views expressed therin.

    was the point I was alluring to.
    Unless a more compassionate economy-related Labour face can be plonked down in front of a TV camera to say something, well…more sympathetic, then the continual tedious and insincere bombast of Brown will only serve to distance Labour even further from the electorate.

  9. Anthony,

    The finding that a only a quarter of respondents agree that Labour is less divided under Brown than under Blair, while 63% disagree, must be rather worrying for Labour given how much Brown was dividing the Labour Government in the final years of Blair’s premiership, in contrast with his recent efforts to bring in key Blairites to present a united front..

    Could this be a precursor of yet further falls in the Labour vote as the constant search for new initiatives and headlines demonstrates the lack of any unifying theme for Brown’s “vision”?

    At least we can now be sure that the only way there is going to be a general election this year is if Labour back-benchers start defecting in lareg numbers.

    Paul

  10. ComRes Scottish figures are;

    Labour 35%, Tory 13%, LibDem 7%, SNP 36%, Others 9%?.

    A high figure for others and again probably unrealistically low for the Libdems. it also looks way to low for the Tories.

    Peter.

  11. Careful, any more polls like this and Sally will be allowing ComRes back into the fold!

    I have expected for some time that the polls will get worse for Labour before they get better and I wouldnt be suprised to see this trend continue this year before a recovery in the back end of 09 early ’10.

    Not panicking at all, but clearly a good poll for the tories.

  12. you gov poll in scotland
    scottish tories 28%
    labour 28%
    snp 27%

    a great result for the conservatives.seems about right.labour in a mess,snp run out of steam after all their economic gaffs and proposed tax rises.

  13. ComRes Scottish figures are;

    Labour 35%, Tory 13%, LibDem 7%, SNP 36%, Others 9%

    Peter – They don’t look very accurate to me. I think the Conservatives will see a bounce in Scotland at the next election, just as much as anywhere else. A lot of anti-Tory prejudice has dried up (and of course a lot still remains), but there are other important factors, not least the SNP administration in Edinburgh.

    The Conservatives hold all the cards in the Scottish parliament. They could quite easily topple the SNP administration (by voting down the budget and then voting against them in the inevitable following vote of no confidence), but they have preferred to co-operate. The “torification” (I claim the word) of SNP policy, made necessary by the SNP’s need to keep the Conservatives onside, will be apparent within the next 16 months, even though it is not reported much in the media now.

    Furthermore, the Tories will still be in their commanding position of effective coalition with the SNP in time for the 2010 Scottish budget, when the threat of voting down the budget could be even more pertinent, and if it actually happened, would really throw the cat among the pigeons for the 2010 General Election as it could make a 2010 Scottish election a possibility.

    Whether the Scottish Election is held in 2011 as scheduled or in 2010 if that is forced by the hypothetical fall of Alex Salmond’s administration, I think the balance of power will shift majorly in the Scottish parliament at the next Scottish election. The SNP will, in my view, still be the biggest party, but may even lose seats. Labour will, I think, be struggling to hold onto 2nd spot, with Conservative support in Scotland rising to a level perhaps not seen since at least the early 80s. I think the LibDems will be somewhat becalmed.

    I know this will make uncomfortable reading for any SNP supporter, but I can’t help thinking that it seems to be the way Scottish policy will go. However widespread the naive opinion that the recession will bypass Scotland may be, that myth will be disspelled this year, and, the Scottish people are not that stupid, Labour support will fall with it.

    My predictions for the next Scottish Election, and I know this is a very rough estimate at this stage, are:
    SNP – 45
    Labour – 32
    Conservative – 30
    LibDem – 16
    Other – 6
    all figures are, of course, very approximate.

  14. “I have expected for some time that the polls will get worse for Labour before they get better and I wouldnt be suprised to see this trend continue this year before a recovery in the back end of 09 early ‘10”

    Toby Perkins

    Sorry to break this to you, but a Labour recovery in the back end of ’09 early ’10 is about as likely as pigs flying to Mecca. They have been given their second chance by the public (and third, and fourth too) and it hasn’t helped. I can’t see Labour actually going ahead in the polls again until about 2020 or so.

  15. MORI

    said to be 44/30/17 !

  16. Neil,

    If the Tories decide to bring down the SNP government be in no doubt we’ll be more than happy to let them.

    In the subsequent election the Tories would get murdered and they know it, which is why they won’t bring down the SNP even if they could.

    The most the Tories could realistically expect in the next Holyrood elections would be 20% which is about 25 seats.

    All the averages of all the Polls for Scotland show the SNP and Labour between then controlling 65-70% of the vote. At best the Tories can hope it drops to 60% and they get half of what’s left.

    Peter.

  17. Peter

    Perhaps you didnt read all of my post – I cant blame you, I was a bit long winded.

    I think to say that Labour/SNP will account for 65-70% of the Scottish vote in a years time is a bit optimistic for both parties. I agree that right now nobody would thank the Tories for toppling the SNP administration, but a year is a very long time in politics; it is not going to get any better for Labour, not even in Scotland, and I think we agree on that. But the thrust of my post was that Conservative support will be on the rise in Scotland, and I think they can still realistically expect to outpoll the LibDems at every Scottish election, but I think at the next one the difference will be more pronounced.

    It remains to be seen how the political land will lie one year hence, but if there is a rise in Conservative support, I think the SNP should be worried, I don’t think the SNP are getting any more popular, and a failed SNP budget next year would not exactly rally half of Scotland to their cause.

    A 20%+ share of the vote is a very realistic target for the Conservatives at the next Scottish election, and I think it is very interesting that it is the Conservatives that the SNP administration have to cosy up to, but nobody would deny that they do have to.

  18. Neil,

    When the Tories we last polling on or near 45% in the Uk they still didn’t get regularly over 20% in Scottish polls so before I was convinced I’d need a plausible explanation as to why it will be different this time.

    In addition as the Tories tend to do better in Westminster than Holyrood elections, partly because under PR the small parties get a bigger share of the vote, I’d expect them to be around 10-20% lower.

    Thus 20% at the next general election would be about 16% at Holyrood.

    At the last election in 2005 the Tories got 16% so 20% would be real progress while at holyrood they worked out at about 14% so 16% in 2011 would still be progress.

    20%/16% would be my guess for elections in 2010 & 2011.

    Having said that I wouldn’t rule out the Tories getting close to 24% at tops in a 2010 UK election.

    However that would need a Labour collapse and in that case I suspect a lot more Scots would switch to the SNP than Labour, as we have the larger support and are closer to Labour ideologically, and when a party is in trouble it’s peoples second choice that tends to benefit more than it’s opponent.

    Indeed I would expect a Labour collapse to be as good for the LibDems in Scotland than the Tories.

    Peter.