YouGov’s monthly poll for the Sunday Times seems to pretty much confirm that the Labour advance we saw last year has now gone into retreat. The topline figures, with changes from YouGov’s previous poll, are CON 45%(+4), LAB 32%(-2), LDEM 14%(-1). The poll was conducted between the 15th and 16th January.

This is the biggest Conservative lead in a YouGov since early October – before the bank bailout, though of course it doesn’t compare to the sort of leads YouGov were recording at the height of the summer. I’m writing this from just the PA report, there were plenty of other interesting questions included in the Sunday Times poll, and there may also be a ComRes poll tonight for the Independent on Sunday, so I will update again later.

16 Responses to “YouGov shows 13 point Tory lead”

  1. The Brown Bounce is now over and any hope of Labour winning the next election!

  2. Can’t say I am surprised.

  3. I am actually surprised by this one. I didn’t expect the Tories to be polling mid 40s for some time.

    I suppose I’m not entirely surprised by Labour losing points as Brown, aside from the bank bailout, has been deeply unpopular with the voters throughout.

    Continues to be very disappointing for the Lib Dems. They must wonder what they can do to recover their position.

  4. Anthony(s) Rules OK.

  5. Obviously the main point is the economy – the disasterous way it has been handled over the last 11 and a half years, leading to the UK being a worse position than any other industrialised nation for the recession – and more pertinently, the way in which the response to the recession has been handled, including the outrageously unwise merger of Lloyds and HBOS, forced by the government.

    Added to that, the Prime minister’s repeated and fundamental dishonesty, particularly at PMQs, is not well received nationally. The extremely dishonest way in which the British people were denied a referendum they were promised on what was effectively the EU contitution, and no doubt many other factors too contribute to the unpopularity of this government.

    I would not have expected quite such a big gap quite so soon, although I would not be in any way surprised if the Conservatives held a lead approaching 20 points in the run up to the conference season in the autumn.

    Perhaps commenters would like to discuss the way forward for both main parties.

  6. Labour Party members will not panic until poll numbers drop below 30 regularly.

  7. The dead cat has bounced …

  8. Im still not sure why there was such a swing back to Labour in the first place
    What in the last few months has changed with our economic outlook
    Surely people didnt actually belive that the economic measures the Government were taking was somehow going to end all the gloom and doom in a few months
    Are people really saying “well that hasn`t worked so I think ill go back to the Tories”
    The only reason I can think of is the “Do nothing Tory approch” worked for a month or so,and may well prevent the Tories from regaining the leads they had in the summer,
    I may be wrong but I cant help thinking that come the election whenever it is Gordon Brown and his Government are going to get a big kick in the pants

  9. My comments on this POLL went into cyberspace again – mmm.

    Crux of it was that i predict (and have done previously) that there will be no more Brown bounces – it’s all downhill now for him and his regime.

    The Labour Party will be no more after the next election – they will break up as they nearly did in the 80’s – but this time it will be permanent. The Liberals will also not recover in the POLLS or do well in the GE – but will emerge as the 2nd major party after the GE.

    Cut and paste.

  10. A couple of points.

    The decision to go ahead with Heathrow expansion will not be helping Labour.
    Ongoing exposure of the maladministration of childrens services at local level in places like Haringey, Doncaster and now other Labour-held authorities is starting to feed through onto the doorstep: a recent report into my local council service recieved the response “it’s just like Baby P” when canvassing on the doorstep.

    I’m sceptical that YouGov is measuring a similar trend to the other pollsters.
    The different technology used to collect data surely must reflect the opinions of a different swathe of society, at least partly because the visual presentation of the questions must have a different psychological impact on the respondents – are there any studies which have measured this effect?

  11. Re: Mark M – Continues to be very disappointing for the Lib Dems. They must wonder what they can do to recover their position…

    I agree, but I feel it may be all down to N Clegg Esq. He has gone from Boy Wonder to Boy Blunder, following his unwise attacks on his own party colleagues and his less than imposing figure when he witters away in PQs..

    The only Lib Dem who would command national respect and revive their fortunes should he be leader is Vince Cable.
    But he has long since ruled that out as a possibility. It is a great shame, as his grasp on the economy is always succint and spot-on, coupled with his wonderful bon mots. His “Stalin to Mr Bean” must stand alongside Hague’s “Dobson as day-mayor and Livingstone as night-mayor” as how to bring about intense embarassment to the Labour leadership.

  12. I always thought this trend would happen but I wasn’t sure when.

    Perhaps people took stock over the christmas period looked at the year ahead and didn’t like what they saw.

    I agree with Glenn B in that I don’t know what caused the 2nd Brown Bounce in the first place however it now looks well and truly over.

    Labour’s only hope now is that the recesion will be short lived and the electorate can see some “green shoots” by the end of 2009 but I haven’t heard from any economists who believe this will be the case.

    I still believe that this recession will cause a slump in GDP of at least 5% before its over whch may take 5-10 years to recover from.

  13. I wonder what effect this will have on the morale in Brown’s bunker?

    Last year he was boasting of having saved the world and making jokes about collapsing banks while Labour rose in the polls.

    Now not only has his bank bailouts and VAT cuts failed but Labour is falling in the polls.

    There must be a high number of Nokias being thrown!

  14. The fundamental realities are hitting home.The way Brown has played this recession has led people to expect that he and his Government CAN bring the problem to an early conclusion.

    Brown has fed this nonsense by refusing to acknowledge that boom and bust were never abolished.He leaves people with the impression that he thinks he has never made an error.The man is incapable of being candid and believes everybody should bow to the correctness of his cause.

    Thankfully with every disatrous company liquidation the awful truth is hitting everyone.This man and his government are useless spendthrifts addicted to unsustainable debt.The sooner they go the better!!

  15. I do think “The Oracle`s” comment may be a little bit of wishfull thinking for the ardent Tory supporters
    I can definately see an attempt by Gordon Brown to be Obama`s best friend
    Be prepared for a Brown “love in” with the new President and it could produce a further Brown bounce especially if Obama openly agrees with the economic measures Gordon Brown has taken.
    Apart from that I really cant see any light at the end of the tunnel for Gordon Brown especially when TV adverts like The Times doesn`t show him in the best of light ( an understatement).I bet his PR advisers sunk their heads in their hands when they saw that.

  16. Glenn Benson

    Be prepared for a Brown “love in” with the new President and it could produce a further Brown bounce especially if Obama openly agrees with the economic measures Gordon Brown has taken.

    I dread that happening – but, however, Obama is more shrewd than that. He may agree in principle with Brown, but I doubt if he has failed to see the lack of impact that Brown’s measures have had in the UK. As a result, I think Obama will unveil a financial package tailor-made to the american peoples, using the british peoples’ desire to cut back on spending as a guide.

    Brown has never accepted that a 2.5% cut in VAT was anything other than a unmitigated failure – well, he has in a disguised way – by saying that we will all have more money in our pocket as a result of the cut, as opposed to his initial stance that this extra money would send us into delirious spending frenzy!