The Tories have doubled their lead over Labour over the past month, according to an opinion poll tonight.

The YouGov poll for the Sunday Times put the Conservatives on 45%, up four points on last month, 13 points ahead of Labour who were down three on 32%. The Liberal Democrats were down one on 14%.

That compares with a six point Tory advantage last month and represents the biggest lead for the Conservatives in a YouGov poll since early October.

The findings provide further evidence that Labour’s “Brown bounce” – which saw it rise in the polls in response to the Prime Minister’s handling of the financial crisis – is now over.

:: YouGov interviewed 2,077 adults online, across Britain, on January 15 and 16.

re your response to my comments on M’s contribution, I would tend to agree with your comments, other than the implication that they reflect my concern with what M said

for example he said

1. “Your error is in thinking there are policies that can “help us through” a recession.”

– It is economically illiterate to say that Governments cannot affect for better or worse the depth and duration of a recession

2. “Nobody can do anything about it by blowing money we dont have on incompetent companies and individuals.”

- to imply that all those who suffer unemployment or insolvency are incompetent displays is not only “nasty” but plainly displays a lack mof understanding of the real world.

Many of these people have been just as “hard working and responsible” as those who have managed to avoid this fate.

M’s perscription would certainly prolong and worsen any recession, but my core point was the language he uses and the underlying attitude that it displays.

and actually historically this sort of approach is even worse than wrong it is stupid because it is not carried through.

Conservative Governments continued (and would in the future) pay out, but recieve no credit because the begrudging language used just made them look churlish.

None of that is to say that there are not major problems with how benefits are delivered, or the efficiency of the public sector, but that is an entirely different story

Very interesting post.
Thanks

Lately I’ve been going with a swing analysis to form my electoral prediction. Seeing as Labour typically performs worse at a general election than polls suggest I’ve been looking at what the pollsters were saying before the 2005 election compared to what they are saying now, and using that swing to determine likely voting behaviour. Usually the overall result is a slight Conservative majority.