Comments on: More from the YouGov Euro poll

By: The Impartial Observer

The Impartial Observer — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 19:55:52 +0000

From The Times article;

“and reflects growing public concern about the outlook for the economy as a whole, with 79 per cent expecting the position to get worse over the next year and just 18 per cent better. This compares with 66 per cent badly and 31 per cent well as recently as last November.”

Big drop in people’s expectations on the economy results in sizeable shift to the Tories, Anthony’s article before Christmas was spot on!

By: James

James — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 19:44:20 +0000

Aha – I just beat you to it Peter!

By: James

James — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 19:43:00 +0000

The poll

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5504673.ece

By: Peter Rush

Peter Rush — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 19:42:27 +0000

43/33/15 – Consevative 10% in front Con +2 Lab-2

By: James

James — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 19:41:40 +0000

Times has a Populus poll

Con: 43 Lab: 33 lib: 15

By: James

James — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 18:33:30 +0000

Apparently there will be a poll in tomorrow’s papers that is good for the Conservatives…

By: Jim Garner

Jim Garner — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 20:53:28 +0000

Paul – thanks for May comment I forgot about the council elections being delayed, I was thinking the same day.
Colin by ‘wel’l I mean how the budget plays in the press and country; the popular budget at the time but not in the long-term adage may well apply.
Also Brown can make it ‘a mandate for the budget’ proposals’ election.
Making the early campaign revolve around territory he believes (rightly or wrongly) he has the edge over Cameron on; and exploiting what Labour believe to be the Tories main weakness, Osborne.
If the budget not received well intially early October is better than 2010.
Still think GB will hang on though.

By: colin

colin — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 15:45:44 +0000

” and the Gov’t can negotiate the budget well,”

I’m not sure what would constitute “well” for you in this context Jim.

But given that PBR has aleady been consigned to the dustbin by both Darling & Brown, I find it diffult to envisage anything other than Government embarrasment & Opposition glee in the first Budget of the Recession.

By: Paul H-J

Paul H-J — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 15:01:19 +0000

Jim,

Brown does not have a credible option for going in May having moved the County Council elections from May to June. To then call a general election in May begs the question as to whether the County Councils should be brought back to May, if not, why not ? – and how silly would that look ?

I agree that holding the general election on 4 June will create even more problems – and may rebound even worse on Labour. So, either Brown cuts and runs no later than April (looking unlikely, but watch the date of the budget) or else he waits for Autumn (early October to kibosh Tory Conference look attractive to Mandy ? *). If he is forced into 2010 the omens are not good, even if the economy does begin to recover by then.

* an early warning sign of an October election may come if Labour “adjust” the date of their conference, bringing it forward a few days, to enable Brown to stand up on the last day and announce he has sought a dissolution. Blatant breach of political conventions, but I would not put it past Mandy & co. It avoids the risk that another good Tory conference leads to Brown “bottling” again – from which there would be no recovery.

By: Jim Garner

Jim Garner — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 13:56:40 +0000

Anthony, this is not really the correct thread but I have a question you or others may be able to answer.
I accept that the evidence is clear that the Conservatives vote share at GEs is more than the ave poll score prior to the 3-4 week official campaign.
What though is the data regarding polling around 12 months before an election to 2 months or so before?
Intuitively one would expect the Governing party to improve its’ rating as some disgruntled supporters come home, less controverisial measures are taken and opposition policies and personel are scrutinised more.
Certainly Labour got excited every mid term of the Tory years (except the first when the Alliance did) Fulham, Langbaurgh etc but what is the poll history since 2001 (first 4 years don’t count as still honeymoon for Labour)?
Notwithstanding this I have suggested previously that the Labour recovery from mid 20’s to mid 30’s could be an ealier manifestation than usual of the ‘approaching end term effect.’
It does, though, suggest a strong residual vote for Labour above 30% even if it dips below occassionally in the polls in the next year.
Given GB’s main task for Labour is to avoid a ‘97 style melt-down whenever Labour do lose he looks to be achieving it.
The playing for history and delaying versus going early which may be right for the Labour Party question will be discussed alot within Labour circles in the first 3 months of the year.
If nanny gate proves bad for the Tories and the Gov’t can negotiate the budegt well, GB should go in May, Euro election day no good as it wil assist the opposition. I reckon he will hang on to 2010 though.