The full tables from the YouGov European elections poll are now available here. It appears as if all the minor parties were included in the main voting intention question – something that has in the past lead to their support being overstated (though of course, that may be balanced out by the higher level of publicity the minor parties get as we actually approach the election).

Looking at the other questions, the single currency questions also asked whether the present economic difficulties had made people more or less likely to support British entry into the Euro. Regular readers will know my concerns about this sort of question, but for the record it picked up more people who said they had become less likely to support Euro entry than who said it had made them more likely.

The question on Britain’s relationship with the EU also had the caveat of asking how realistic people thought their preferred option of being able to renegoiate Britain’s relationship with Europe actually was. 51% thought it was not very realistic, or not realistic at all. 24% thought it was quite realistic and only 9% very realistic.

YouGov also asked whether any of the three main parties adequately represented respondent’s views on Britain’s relationship with Europe. 29% of people said they did, 45% said they didn’t. Note that – mathematically at least – this doesn’t necessarily mean that there are lots of people voting Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem at European elections who don’t agree with them on Europe – turnout in 2004 was 38%, so actually only 24% of the population voted for one of the big three anyway.

In actual fact, the cross breaks here show that 38% of people who say they would vote Tory in the Euro-elections don’t think the main parties represent their views, 34% of Labour European voters think they don’t and 40% of Lib Dem European voters think they don’t. This implies people are either voting for the nexrt best party in the absence of one that accurately reflects their views, or more likely, that they aren’t voting based on parties’ european policies.

The comments about Ken Clarke in the Sunday Telegraph’s report do appear to be entirely speculation, there were not any polling questions about him.


12 Responses to “More from the YouGov Euro poll”

  1. Who are the respondents who would vote yes to the Euro and vote UKIP in May?!!!! Bizarre!

    Interesting to see in action how some of the Tory vote would break to UKIP in the Euro Elections and similar proportions of Lib Dems would run off to the Greens.

  2. Questions about whether people feel the major parties “represent” their views are odd ones really. I doubt there are many people – or even any – who feel that one party represents all their views on every issue. As voters, we tend to prioritise and compromise – as in “Party X’s policy is closer to my views on education (or whatever) than Party Y but its policy on immigration (or whatever) sucks …” Then we decide which of these issues we feel is the most important.

    What I’m getting at is that most people are likely to agree that any political party doesn’t represent their views in their entirety, so it’s a bit of a rubbish question to ask.

  3. Anthony, this is not really the correct thread but I have a question you or others may be able to answer.
    I accept that the evidence is clear that the Conservatives vote share at GEs is more than the ave poll score prior to the 3-4 week official campaign.
    What though is the data regarding polling around 12 months before an election to 2 months or so before?
    Intuitively one would expect the Governing party to improve its’ rating as some disgruntled supporters come home, less controverisial measures are taken and opposition policies and personel are scrutinised more.
    Certainly Labour got excited every mid term of the Tory years (except the first when the Alliance did) Fulham, Langbaurgh etc but what is the poll history since 2001 (first 4 years don’t count as still honeymoon for Labour)?
    Notwithstanding this I have suggested previously that the Labour recovery from mid 20’s to mid 30’s could be an ealier manifestation than usual of the ‘approaching end term effect.’
    It does, though, suggest a strong residual vote for Labour above 30% even if it dips below occassionally in the polls in the next year.
    Given GB’s main task for Labour is to avoid a ’97 style melt-down whenever Labour do lose he looks to be achieving it.
    The playing for history and delaying versus going early which may be right for the Labour Party question will be discussed alot within Labour circles in the first 3 months of the year.
    If nanny gate proves bad for the Tories and the Gov’t can negotiate the budegt well, GB should go in May, Euro election day no good as it wil assist the opposition. I reckon he will hang on to 2010 though.

  4. Jim,

    Brown does not have a credible option for going in May having moved the County Council elections from May to June. To then call a general election in May begs the question as to whether the County Councils should be brought back to May, if not, why not ? – and how silly would that look ?

    I agree that holding the general election on 4 June will create even more problems – and may rebound even worse on Labour. So, either Brown cuts and runs no later than April (looking unlikely, but watch the date of the budget) or else he waits for Autumn (early October to kibosh Tory Conference look attractive to Mandy ? *). If he is forced into 2010 the omens are not good, even if the economy does begin to recover by then.

    * an early warning sign of an October election may come if Labour “adjust” the date of their conference, bringing it forward a few days, to enable Brown to stand up on the last day and announce he has sought a dissolution. Blatant breach of political conventions, but I would not put it past Mandy & co. It avoids the risk that another good Tory conference leads to Brown “bottling” again – from which there would be no recovery.

  5. ” and the Gov’t can negotiate the budget well,”

    I’m not sure what would constitute “well” for you in this context Jim.

    But given that PBR has aleady been consigned to the dustbin by both Darling & Brown, I find it diffult to envisage anything other than Government embarrasment & Opposition glee in the first Budget of the Recession.

  6. Paul – thanks for May comment I forgot about the council elections being delayed, I was thinking the same day.
    Colin by ‘wel’l I mean how the budget plays in the press and country; the popular budget at the time but not in the long-term adage may well apply.
    Also Brown can make it ‘a mandate for the budget’ proposals’ election.
    Making the early campaign revolve around territory he believes (rightly or wrongly) he has the edge over Cameron on; and exploiting what Labour believe to be the Tories main weakness, Osborne.
    If the budget not received well intially early October is better than 2010.
    Still think GB will hang on though.

  7. Apparently there will be a poll in tomorrow’s papers that is good for the Conservatives…

  8. Times has a Populus poll

    Con: 43 Lab: 33 lib: 15

  9. 43/33/15 – Consevative 10% in front Con +2 Lab-2

  10. Aha – I just beat you to it Peter!

  11. From The Times article;

    “and reflects growing public concern about the outlook for the economy as a whole, with 79 per cent expecting the position to get worse over the next year and just 18 per cent better. This compares with 66 per cent badly and 31 per cent well as recently as last November.”

    Big drop in people’s expectations on the economy results in sizeable shift to the Tories, Anthony’s article before Christmas was spot on!